Monday, February 03, 2020

Voter Registration Maps: A Decade of Massive Change

In this update to my Voter Registration Maps series, we're looking at how voter registration has changed in Oklahoma over the past decade, from January 2010 to January 2020.

First up is an animated graphic showing the voter registration by county. There's been a 22.09% swing to the GOP since 2010. A decade ago, Democrats held a 9.16% lead over Republicans (49.05% to 39.89%) -- last month, the GOP was ahead by 12.93% (48.25% to 35.32%).

In 2010, the GOP's largest lead was in Beaver County, ahead of the Democrats by 40.77%. Democrats had 11 counties where they led the GOP by greater than 60% (in four of those it was by over 70%).

Fast forward a decade, and Republicans now lead Democrats by 60% in two counties, and Democrats have just one county with a 40+% lead (ahead by 47.07% in Coal County):

This next map shows the swing in each county. It has been especially dramatic in the southern portion of the state. The shifts in Oklahoma and Tulsa counties have been almost exclusively due to the growth of Independents at the expense of Democrats. In both counties, GOP percentages increased by less than 1%, Independents by 5-6%, while Democrat's fell by 6%.

This map shows the change in majority and plurality parties since 2020:
Republican majority: 14 (2010) to 35 (2020) = +21
Republican plurality: 10 (2010) to 10 (2020) = no change
Democratic plurality: 4 (2010) to 18 (2020) = +14
Democratic majority: 49 (2010) to 14 (2020) = -35

Truly remarkable.


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