Maps: 2012 and 2016 Oklahoma presidential results compared

This latest installment in my Election Results Maps series compares the 2016 presidential results to the 2012 presidential results.

Here's the overall picture. In 2012, Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by 33.54%. Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 36.4%, a 2.86% increase:

The vote percentage shifted in the Democrats direction in 7 counties. In 3 of them, Trump got between 72.34% and 78.1% of the vote, while Romney had received between 77.18% and 85.82%. Trump's smallest spread in these "trending"-Democrat counties was still +10.51% in Oklahoma County.

2016 added a new element in that we had a third-party candidate for the first time since 2000. As a result, both the Republican and Democratic nominees received lower vote percentages than in 2012.

This map shows the increase and decrease in county percentages for Donald Trump compared to Mitt Romney's 2012 showing:

Trump had lower percentages than Romney in 15 counties, with the biggest decrease in McClain County (-7.72%). Of the counties with the top 20 highest increases, 16 came from counties in the 2nd Congressional District.

This map shows the changes in county percentages for Hillary Clinton compared to Barack Obama's 2012 figures:

McClain County was the only place where Clinton bested Obama's 2012 percentage, increasing by 3% (from 14.18% to 17.18%). She fell by double-digits in 19 counties, with the largest coming in Mayes County (-16.3%).

RJ Harris: The Evolving Perennial Candidate

Governor Mary Fallin appears to have drawn her first opponent for the 2014 campaign, and the candidate comes with a colorful history.

Meet RJ Harris, Republican Libertarian Independent Democrat candidate for Congress President Congress Governor.

Let's examine the political evolution of Oklahoma's next great perennial candidate.

2010:

RJ Harris, Republican

RJ's first foray into politics was as a Republican candidate in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District in 2010. He lost to Congressman Tom Cole 77%-23%.

 2012:

RJ Harris, Libertarian

In August of 2011, Harris threw his hat into the ring for President -- this time as a Libertarian. After nine months of campaigning for the nomination, he withdrew his candidacy, citing fundraising difficulties.

RJ Harris, Independent

Since his presidential campaign didn't pan out, Harris ran for Congress again, but this time as an Independent. He came in third (5%), behind Congressman Cole (68%), and Democrat Donna Bebo (29%).

 2014:

RJ Harris, Democrat

Now, he's decided to run for Governor, and as a Democrat. So far, he is the only announced Democratic candidate.

The Daily Oklahoman newspaper writes that "Wallace Collins, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said Harris is a good candidate for the party and he supports his campaign."  I'll let that comment speak for itself.

The 2014 election is getting more and more interesting...

Democrats lost voters in 49% of Oklahoma counties in 2012

As the previous maps have shown, 2012 was a banner year for Republicans, to the detriment of the Oklahoma Democratic Party. Today, we look at numerical growth figures per county.

For Republicans and Independents, every county showed a net increase of voters. Statewide, the GOP added 69,389 voters, and Independents grew by 27,381. Tulsa County had the highest raw growth for Republicans, at +11,636, while Oklahoma County was top for Independents at +5,789.

(click to view larger)

On the other hand, Democrats show a different story. While they did grow by 18,789 voters statewide, only 39 of 77 counties had net increases, while 38 had net losses. The top numerical increase for Democrats came in Oklahoma County (+7,738), and the greatest decrease was in Rogers County (-503).

As bad as that is, things look even worse when you compare Democrats' numerical growth to that of Independents and Republicans on a county-by-county basis.

(click to view larger)

In only 16 counties did Democrats add more voters than Independents.

(click to view larger)

Republicans added more voters than Democrats in 74 of 77 counties.

It's a great time to be a Republican in Oklahoma. Not so much if you're a Democrat.

Voter Registration Growth by Party

This addition to the MuskogeePolitico.com's voter registration map series shows growth as a percentage in each county per political party.

(click to view larger)

Percentages for Republicans grew in 75 of 77 counties, coming short of positive growth only in Adair (-0.09%) and Oklahoma (-0.21%) counties. Marshall County Republicans grew by 3.77%, the largest percentage in the state.

(click to view larger)

Democrats had a terrible year, growing in percentage only in Adair County (+0.12%). Marshall County was the worst, coming in at a loss of 4.45%. Far western and southern Oklahoma is where the brunt of loss came for the Democratic Party.

(click to view larger)

Independents grew at a slow rate, dropping in percentage in Adair County (-0.03%), but gaining in the rest of the state. Ottawa County had the greatest percentage jump, at 1.39%.

County-by-county voter registration swings, 1/2012 to 1/2013

Continuing my map series on voter registration, this shows the county-by-county trend from last January. Democrats had a positive trend in only one county (Adair), and that was only +0.29%. Republicans netted positive percentages in the other 76 counties, capped with +8.22% in Marshall County.

With the rate at which the GOP is catching up to the Democrats, the Republican Party will likely take the lead in voter registration sometime in 2014.

Oklahoma Voter Registration Map, January 2013

(click to view larger)

In a follow-up to yesterday's post, I've compiled a map visualizing voter registration in Oklahoma. As you can see, Democrats still dominate registration rates in most of southern and eastern Oklahoma counties, but struggle in the higher population metropolitan areas.

Contrast this with my Election Results Maps series, and compare the registration rates to the actual voting data.

Oklahoma Republicans net 370% more voters than Democrats in 2012

Release: OKGOP Crushes Democrats in 2012 Voter Registration Efforts

(Oklahoma City)--Oklahoma Republican Party Chairman Matt Pinnell released the following statement today in response to the State Election Board's official annual registration statistics report showing that over the past year, Republicans had a net increase of over 69,400 voters, while Democrats netted only 18,789.

"Today’s voter registration numbers echo what we have been saying since I became Chairman in 2010: the Democrat Party - both on a national and state level - has taken a hard-left turn and is not turning back,” said OKGOP Chairman Matt Pinnell. “It is no coincidence that as the Oklahoma Democratic Party has taken positions increasingly at odds with Oklahoma voters, that voter registration is tilting even more Republican.”

The State Election Board report notes that 2012 saw a continuation of Oklahoma’s decades-long trend of Republican and Independents increasing their share of registered voters. Twenty years ago, Democrats made up almost 64% of registered Oklahoma voters. Today, only 45%. Republicans on the other hand now comprise almost 43% of registered voters.

“The 2012 Democratic National Convention adopted a national platform that takes positions completely at odds with Oklahoma voters,” continued Pinnell. “From further gun restrictions and attacks on the energy sector to support for raising taxes in the midst of an economic crisis, the Oklahoma Democratic Party continues to embrace the far-left policies of Barack Obama and national Democrats.”

According to the State Election Board report, as of January 15, 2013, Oklahoma has 2,116,186 registered voters. This includes 962,072 Democrats, 897,663 Republicans, 256,450 Independents, and one (1) member of the Americans Elect political organization.

“More and more Oklahomans are awakening to the fact that there is no longer a place for them in today’s Democrat Party and they feel much more comfortable with today’s Republican Party that is championing lower taxes and less government intervention. When that awakening happens, we are ready with voter registration forms,” concluded Pinnell.

Oklahoma Presidential Results Map: 2008 vs. 2012

This map shows the trends in voting when comparing the 2008 presidential race and the 2012 presidential race in Oklahoma. Counties colored a shade of red trended more Republican, and counties colored a shade of blue went more Democrat when compared to the 2008 results.

Jefferson County had the greatest increase for Republicans, at 11.64%. Adair County had the greatest increase for Democrats, coming in at 3.85%. All told, 14 counties had higher percentages for Obama in 2012 than in 2008.

Oklahoma General Elections Results Map - 2nd District

Here is a map of the 2nd District general election results.

Oklahoma General Elections Results Map - President

Mitt Romney once again carried all of Oklahoma's 77 counties, most with larger margins than before, and some with rather extreme percentages. His best county was Cimarron County, where the GOP nominee received 90.39% of the vote. As in 2008, Obama's best performance came in Cherokee County, where he took 42.95% (in 2008 he got 43.92%).

For reference, here is the 2008 map:

Four More Years

As of 10:15pm CST, President Barack Obama crested the critical 270 mark in electoral votes. Throughout much of the evening, the big states of Ohio and Florida bounced between Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney, but Ohio appears to have finally landed in the Obama camp's tally, pushing the President across the finish line.

Ironically enough, Mitt Romney currently leads in the popular vote - a reversal from the 2000 election, when George Bush won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote to Al Gore.

Election 2012: My Endorsements

After months of being bombarded by political materials and advertisements, Election Day is almost here. I wanted to take a moment to go through the various races in Oklahoma (primarily eastern Oklahoma), and give my thoughts and/or recommendations, for any who might be interested.


PRESIDENT/VICE PRESIDENT: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan
Obviously, we desperately need a change in the White House. Romney was not my top choice in the GOP primary (not my second, third or fourth, either), but even so, he will be a *MUCH* greater improvement over the disastrous Obama/Biden administration.

CONGRESS (1st District): Jim Bridenstine
Jim Bridenstine is a great candidate - genuinely conservative, and extremely intelligent. He will serve Oklahoma well in Congress. I have met Jim, and am thoroughly impressed with him as an individual, and expect great things out of him.

CONGRESS (2nd District): Markwayne Mullin
Markwayne Mullin (again, not my first choice in the GOP primary, or my second, third, or fourth) will line up on the conservative side in Congress on a consistent basis. The same can't be said for his Democratic opponent, Rob Wallace, who will caucus with the Democrats, and be just conservative enough every now and then to appease his conservative constituents.

STATE SENATE (District 5): Howard Houchen
Howard Houchen is a good friend of mine, and will make a *tremendous* conservative state senator. Howard is well known in Oklahoma for his outspoken support of legislation which promotes economic freedom and protects Life, Liberty, and Property while being very active in informing and resisting, and even defeating, legislation that threatens the freedoms of all Oklahomans. This will be a close race.
Senate District 5 covers all of Choctaw, McCurtain and Pushmataha counties, and portions of Atoka and LeFlore counties.

STATE SENATE (District 9): Barney Taylor
Barney Taylor is running against incumbent State Senator Earl Garrison. Garrison likes to act conservative at home, and vote more liberally in OKC. Barney is a conservative, and while not expected to come close, had the courage to place his name on the ballot and campaign. In Muskogee County, where Republican candidates can be few and far between, this needs to be rewarded by Republican voters.
Senate District 9 covers most of eastern and central Muskogee County (excluding Fort Gibson), and central Cherokee County (Tahlequah city limits, and south of Hwy 62 towards Muskogee).

STATE HOUSE (District 12): David Tackett
David Tacket is a staunch conservative (although I disagree on a few issues with him, such as tort reform), waging an uphill fight against incumbent Democrat Wade Rousselot, largely without help from the GOP establishment (whom he has fought with on numerous occasions).
District 12 covers most of central and eastern Wagoner County.

STATE HOUSE (District 14): Arthur Hulbert
This is the seat my dad has held for the past six years. Arthur Hulbert is a conservative who will stand up for family values and free-market principles. District 14 has only gone Republican once (George Faught, 2006-2012) - Arthur is a good choice to continue conservative representation.
House District 14 covers eastern Muskogee and western Cherokee counties.

OKLAHOMA SUPREME COURT: vote NO
In Oklahoma, we vote on retaining judges, as opposed to a judge vs. judge race. As far as I know, never has a state judge not been retained in Oklahoma history. HOWEVER, I will be voting against ALL Oklahoma Supreme Court justices. The Oklahoma Supreme Court is rather liberal, with most of the justices having been appointed by Democrat governors (all OSC justices on the ballot were picked by Brad Henry), and in recent years has struck down many pro-life bills or petitions. Given those reasons, I strongly encourage you to vote NO on all Oklahoma Supreme Court justices.

OKLAHOMA COURT OF CRIMINAL APPEALS: vote NO
As with the Supreme Court, all of the Criminal Appeals judges were appointed by liberal Gov. Brad Henry (D). I encourage you to vote against all of them.

OKLAHOMA COURT OF CIVIL APPEALS
P. Thomas Thornbrugh - appointed by Gov. Mary Fallin (R). Vietnam veteran. (YES)
William C. Hetherington, Jr. - appointed by Gov. Brad Henry (D).  (NO)
Kenneth L. Buettner - appointed by Gov. Frank Keating (R). Involved with his Catholic Church in various capacities.  (YES)
Robert Bobby Bell - appointed by Gov. Brad Henry (D). At one time was the youngest sitting judge in Oklahoma.  (NO)
E. Bay Mitchell, III - appointed by Gov. Frank Keating (R).  (YES)

Since I know next to nothing about the courts, judges and justices, and finding out information about them is so very difficult, I tend to vote for the those appointed by Republican governors and against those appointed by Democrat governors. The other option is to vote against them all; if by chance one of them was not retained, their replacement would be appointed by the sitting governor (in the case, Republican Mary Fallin).

Tulsa Vision2 - AGAINST
Tulsa residents would be wise to reject this major tax extension. Michael Bates of BatesLine.com has excellent commentary and resources on why to vote against Vision2.

STATE QUESTION 758 (info): YES
STATE QUESTION 759 (info): YES
STATE QUESTION 762 (info): NO
STATE QUESTION 764 (info): NO
STATE QUESTION 765 (info): YES
STATE QUESTION 766 (info): YES
State Rep. Jason Murphey (R-Guthrie) has an excellent page on the state questions, found here.

That about sums it up. If you have any questions or comments, or want to see what I think about something else, let me know!

Danny Beck Chevy runs 2nd District parody ad

As 2nd Congressional District candidates Markwayne Mullin (R) and Rob Wallace (D) slug out the final days of the election, Danny Beck Chevrolet of Tulsa is out with a new commercial that indirectly refers to the race. A piece of political parody, the Danny Beck ad makes allusions to several television spots run by the Wallace campaign (in particular, Wallace's ad on water).




See the resemblance? I am told that another Wallace/Mullin ad is in the Danny Beck commercial, but I can't find the original spot online, and don't watch television enough to have seen it myself.

Thomas Peterffy and the Freedom to Succeed

Re-posted from Erick Erickson of RedState.com:

Thomas Peterffy is the founder of Interactive Brokers, an online brokerage firm. But he wasn’t always.

In 1956, Thomas Peterffy, unable to speak English, fled Hungary as the Iron Curtain was lowering on Eastern Europe. By the time Peterffy left Hungary, the communists were in charge. Around 350,000 people, many intellectuals and politicians, were purged by the communists. In 1956, Hungary went through a revolution that pushed out the Soviets until November of that year when the Soviets sent in 150,000 troops killing 20,000 people with a quarter million more fleeing for their lives.

Thomas Peterffy was one of those refugees. He went on to be an American success story. Now, this registered independent voter, has felt compelled to tell the world about the horrors of socialism and how it destroys success and erodes a nation’s work ethic. He has, out of his own pocket, produced an ad of him talking. He is, again with just his own money, running the ad on national news networks and in Ohio.

It is one of the most powerful ads you will see this campaign cycle. A refugee from a communist state has put his money where his mouth is and wants the world to know what happens when a nation punishes success.

OKGOP Launches "Jailbreak Wallace" Website

OKGOP Launches "Jailbreak Wallace" Website

(Oklahoma City) - The Oklahoma Republican Party today announced the launch of a new website - JailBreakWallace.com - to highlight Rob Wallace’s record of offering plea bargains to criminals who later went on to commit further crimes, some including violent crime and even murder.

At a recent forum in which both Second District candidates attended, Wallace continued to lob disingenuous attacks, while Republican Markwayne Mullin continued to tell voters of the 2nd District about his plans to end wasteful government spending and get our economy back on track.

“Rob Wallace is at it again - lobbing attacks against Markwayne Mullin’s successful business to hide from major flaws in his own record,” said OKGOP Chairman Matt Pinnell. “It speaks volumes that Mr. Wallace continues to throw mud instead of explaining to voters how exactly sending someone to Congress to caucus with Nancy Pelosi and continue the failed policies of Barack Obama will help turn our country around.”

Throughout the campaign, Wallace has highlighted his experience as a prosecutor as a reason voters should support his candidacy. However, when Wallace was under consideration to become the US Attorney for the Eastern District of Oklahoma in 2009, the White House abruptly and unexpectedly ceased their vetting of Wallace. Wallace previously denied that it had anything to do with the acrimonious lawsuits that surrounded a failed mining company in which Wallace had a 39% ownership stake.

“Rob Wallace has yet to give a substantive explanation of why he was abruptly dropped as a candidate for US Attorney,” said Pinnell. “Was it because of this remarkable record of offering plea bargains to criminals who went on to commit even more crime? Mr. Wallace’s job as a prosecutor was to punish criminals and help take them off the streets. Much like his repeated business failings, it would appear Mr. Wallace’s record as a prosecutor is one of failure.”

The Oklahoma Republican Party encourages voters to visit www.JailBreakWallace.com to view the records of several criminals Rob Wallace offered plea bargains to, who later went on to commit more crime.

“I’m sure after viewing the criminal backgrounds of these individuals, many voters will wonder just why exactly Rob Wallace let them off easy,” concluded Pinnell.

Fallin photo on Democrat legislator's mailer stirs controversy

A recent campaign mailer from State Rep. Wade Rousselot (D-Okay) has caused a bit of a stir among some Republicans, due to the prominent featuring of Governor Mary Fallin (R) on the mail piece - which can give the implication that Fallin is supporting Rousselot's reelection bid against Republican candidate David Tackett.

The former head of 'Oklahomans for Liberty', Tackett has at times clashed heads with Gov. Fallin and Republican legislative leadership over legislation and policies he considers to be corporate welfare, unconstitutional, or against conservative principles. Rousselot is one of the few Democrat candidates that the Oklahoma State Chamber, a strong supporter/ally of Gov. Fallin, is supporting this year.

Governor Fallin has not officially endorsed in the House District 12 race, and according to Tackett, the Republican State House Committee has not lent him any support, leading his supporters to cry foul. For their part, the Governor doesn't endorse in every race, and the House PAC doesn't always spend money on every nominee.

Nevertheless, when the Democrat nominee uses the Governor's photo in an attempt to 'ride the coattails' of the top Republican in the state (Fallin has an approval rating of 69.3%), the Governor should publicly state her support for the Republican nominee.

Candidates often try to align themselves with popular figures by using pictures of the candidate with the other individual. More often than not, the picture was never intended to be used for campaign purposes, and usually the other person is unaware that they are being used by the candidate. As I have said previously, using a photo like this passes off a false impression, and attributes action to someone who never did what was implied.

As the saying goes, "A picture is worth a thousand words". Usually, when a candidate is shown with someone else on a campaign mailer, that implies an endorsement. When no such endorsement exists, it is unethical to give off the impression to unsuspecting voters, and just isn't commonsense.

I'm sure Governor Fallin never intended for voters to assume that she supports a Democrat nominee over a Republican nominee; however, she can rectify the situation with a simple paragraph expressing her support for the GOP candidate. When a mailer like this has so publicly muddled the truth about who she is supporting in House District 12, Governor Fallin should move quickly to clarify the situation, and join Sen. Tom Coburn in publicly endorsing David Tackett, the Republican nominee.

UPDATE: Gary Johnson will won't be on ballot in Oklahoma

Sooner State knocks Libertarian hopeful off ballot

By Patrick B. McGuigan | CapitolBeatOK

OKLAHOMA CITY — The Oklahoma State Election Board removed the Americans Elect party from the November presidential election ballot Wednesday, effectively knocking out Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson.

The decision was made based on the advice of the state Attorney General’s Office.

Earlier this summer, the state Americans Elect party had designated a slate of presidential electors and named Johnson as its candidate, even as the national party’s directors spiked the group’s nationwide drive to provide an alternative to the two major parties.

Secretary of the State Election Board Paul Ziriax said in a statement sent Wednesday morning to CapitolBeatOK:

“You have previously asked me about the conflicting instructions the State Election Board received from the Directors of the Americans Elect party and a local group claiming to on act on behalf of the Americans Elect party. (The Board of Directors of the party instructs that the Americans Elect party will not field any candidates for President or Vice President, while the local group instructs that the party has chosen candidates for President and Vice President – the same candidates chosen by the Libertarian Party in other states.)”

Ziriax said Assistant Attorney General Neal Leader advised the Election Board that it “should not place the Americans Elect Party president and vice-presidential candidates or presidential electors on the November 2012 general election ballot in Oklahoma.”

Ziriax told CapitolBeatOK, “Our staff will proceed with our general election ballot preparations accordingly.”

In his 20-page analysis of the legal questions involved, Leader said the national group retained control of the party’s ballot line, and the national directors’ decision held in the state.

Richard Winger, editor of Ballot Access News, said Leader’s written opinion “contains no references to any court cases to justify his opinion.”

Winger contends the Election Board and Leader “have acted in a deceitful manner.”

Americans Elect gained ballot status in March after a successful petition campaign that enjoyed the support of David Boren, now president of the University of Oklahoma.

The Oklahoma effort began with fanfare in January, achieving success in March, after a Libertarian-organized drive fell short of the required signatures. Oklahoma is widely considered one of the most difficult states for ballot access.

Just weeks ago, local activists submitted electors to state officials, in support of Johnson, but on a parallel track the national Americans Elect party informed the Election Board it was abandoning its drive “in all states in which Americans Elect has obtained a ballot access line” with the “unanimous written consent” of the national group’s directors.

Contact Patrick McGuigan at patrick@capitolbeatok.com.

Democrat Runoff Results Map - 2nd District

Republican Runoff Results Map - 2nd District

Voters in the 2nd Congressional District are voting in the runoff for Congress today. I encourage all Republican voters to cast their ballot for George Faught, the only trusted, proven conservative in the race.