Voter Registration Maps: A Decade of Massive Change

In this update to my Voter Registration Maps series, we're looking at how voter registration has changed in Oklahoma over the past decade, from January 2010 to January 2020.

First up is an animated graphic showing the voter registration by county. There's been a 22.09% swing to the GOP since 2010. A decade ago, Democrats held a 9.16% lead over Republicans (49.05% to 39.89%) -- last month, the GOP was ahead by 12.93% (48.25% to 35.32%).

In 2010, the GOP's largest lead was in Beaver County, ahead of the Democrats by 40.77%. Democrats had 11 counties where they led the GOP by greater than 60% (in four of those it was by over 70%).

Fast forward a decade, and Republicans now lead Democrats by 60% in two counties, and Democrats have just one county with a 40+% lead (ahead by 47.07% in Coal County):

This next map shows the swing in each county. It has been especially dramatic in the southern portion of the state. The shifts in Oklahoma and Tulsa counties have been almost exclusively due to the growth of Independents at the expense of Democrats. In both counties, GOP percentages increased by less than 1%, Independents by 5-6%, while Democrat's fell by 6%.

This map shows the change in majority and plurality parties since 2020:

Republican majority: 14 (2010) to 35 (2020) = +21
Republican plurality: 10 (2010) to 10 (2020) = no change
Democratic plurality: 4 (2010) to 18 (2020) = +14
Democratic majority: 49 (2010) to 14 (2020) = -35

Truly remarkable.

An 8-Year Extinction of the Little Dixie Democrat Legislator

In 2010, Oklahoma Democrats owned the southeast portion of the state, with total control of legislative seats in the "Little Dixie" area, generally south of I-40 and east of I-35.

With yesterday's announcement by State Rep. Johnny Tadlock (DR, Dist.1), there are now no legislative Democrats in the region south of Tahlequah and east of Norman.

No region of the state has been so lopsidedly dominated by one party throughout state history as Little Dixie. Yet, in a period of eight years, four elections, and one party switch, the Little Dixie Democrat legislator has now gone extinct (at least until the next election).

The 2010 election started a GOP landslide in Little Dixie, with victories in the Senate by Josh Brecheen, Mark Allen and Frank Simpson, and Dustin Roberts, Tommy Hardin and John Bennett in the House. Consecutive elections were marked by continued GOP pickups, culminating with this year's flip of four House seats in the very heart of Little Dixie.

Pre-election 2010 State House (62R-39D):

Current 2018 State House (77R-24D):

Pre-election 2010 State Senate (26R-22D):

Current 2018 State Senate (39R-9D):

Only 3 of 24 Democrat House members are from primarily rural districts, while all of their 9 Senate seats are mainly urban.

Following the 2018 election, which saw Democrats lose 7 rural seats including House Minority Leader Steve Kouplen, incoming House Minority Leader Emily Virgin made the following comment in an interview with NewsOK: "For Democrats going forward, we've got to figure out how to make sure that we are still talking to rural Oklahoma and letting them know we are the party for you when it comes to health care and keeping hospitals open."

Looks like that job got a little harder for Oklahoma Democrats.

2010 CD2 GOP nominee Thompson endorses Jarrin Jackson

Dr. Charles Thompson Endorses Jarrin Jackson for U.S. Congress, OK-District 2

Says Jackson will lead the next generation of conservatives

May 11, 2016 (Broken Arrow, OK) - The 2010 Republican nominee for Oklahoma's 2nd Congressional District, Dr. Charles Thompson announced his endorsement of Republican Jarrin Jackson today. Jackson is challenging incumbent congressman Markwayne Mullin in Oklahoma's second district.

“As a retired Army Major, I can tell you Jarrin's West Point education and his leadership in battle put him in a class the incumbent can't even imagine. His two Bronze Stars prove the strength of his character under fire and as a native Oklahoma he knows and lives our values.”

“Beyond his military service, Jarrin has a grasp of conservative thought that goes beyond his years. He gets it. He understands why limiting government is a good thing and why the Constitution should be the starting point for all political ideas.”

He said, “I've heard Jarrin's ideas about improving healthcare for our veterans, exercising the power of the purse, and replacing our tax code, for example. He articulates solid, conservative principles with ease. Jarrin has the intellect, leadership, and absolute conviction of our Constitution to make him the only choice to represent us in Congress.”

He said, “Jarrin is also the father of two young boys, On both his deployments to Afghanistan, he and his wife Katie learned firsthand what service to our country means; personal sacrifice and keeping faith. Our children are growing up free today because of him and others like him who serve and have served with the same selfless attitude. Not only do I recommend Jarrin to the voters of District 2, I also encourage each of you to work toward his election as you did mine. Thank you and God Bless our Great Country.”

For more information on Jarrin Jackson and his principled stands for Oklahoma and our country, please visit his campaign website: jarrinjackson.com, and Facebook at jarrinjackson1.

Voter Registration Map: 2010 to 2015 swing

Here's an update to my Voter Registration Maps series, detailing five years of registration changes in Oklahoma.

(click to view larger)

Since 2010, Oklahoma Democrats have lost 117,169 voters (-5.57%) and the majority, Oklahoma Republicans have gained 72,995 voters (3.76%) and the plurality, and independents have grown by 35,831 voters (1.81%).

The lowest swing for the OKGOP came in Adair County (3.98%), and the highest was in Tillman County (28.34%). Oklahoma and Tulsa counties had the second and third slowest swing to the GOP (4.19% and 4.67%).

Democrats had positive movement in zero counties.

An Ironic Contribution

I stumbled across a very ironic campaign contribution this evening, as I was glancing through some reports from the Oklahoma Ethics Commission. Sometimes, a candidate will loan their campaign money, which can be paid back at a future date. In some cases, it takes several years to 'retire' campaign debt.

Take State Auditor Gary Jones. In his 2010 race, Gary loaned his campaign $60,000. During the course of that race, he was outspent by the Democrat incumbent $806,000 to $134,000. 

State Auditor isn't a glamorous position, and tends to get the little attention from political donors. Gary still has debt from his previous race, and is raising money to pay it off. Which brings me to the ironic contribution...

(click image to enlarge)

In case you've forgotten...

... Steve Burrage was the sitting State Auditor in 2010 when Gary Jones defeated him.

Steve Burrage donated to Gary Jones to help retire debt incurred beating himself!

I think it's safe to say there's no hard feelings about that race!

Brogdon considering switch to Senate race

According to an article in Roll Call,
Former state senator Randy Brogdon may be considering switching from running for governor to running for the Senate seat being vacated by Tom Coburn.

Randy Brogdon, a conservative former state senator currently challenging Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin, is considering running in the Senate special election instead.

“He has got a lot of people inside of Oklahoma, probably eight or nine out of 10, that are urging him to run for Senate, and he is listening very intently to those urges,” Brogdon senior adviser Louis Waller said when reached by CQ Roll Call.

Brogdon’s potential entrance comes just after Rep. Jim Bridenstine, a favorite among conservative outside groups, decided against a bid. Groups like the Senate Conservatives Fund and the Madison Project had pushed for Bridenstine to run as a conservative alternative to Rep. James Lankford, who announced his bid for the seat earlier this month.

Brogdon, who lost to Fallin in the 2010 gubernatorial primary, has the kind of tea party profile that could garner support from those groups. If he runs, Brogdon would be the third major Republican in the race, along with state Speaker T.W. Shannon. Candidates have until April 11 to file for the race, which follows the state’s regular election year schedule.

Read the rest of the Roll Call article here.

Some people may not agree with me, but I would consider this to be a mistake on Brogdon's part. He does not have a good chance at beating Mary Fallin in the governor's race, but running for Senate against two very well funded candidates (Lankford and Shannon) poses an even greater difficulty.

Let's face it; Randy Brogdon has not gained in popularity since he lost the gubernatorial primary in 2010. in fact, it could be argued that between his taking a job with the Insurance Commissioner, and with being somewhat out of the public eye, he is significantly less popular. Considering how he only received 39% of the vote four years ago, I think he will struggle to reach 30% against Governor Fallin.

If Randy run for Senate, I think that the odds are even longer. Lankford and Shannon are two excellent candidates who will be well funded. Neither of them will receive less than 30% of the vote. I see Brogdon getting only 12%-20% of the vote, especially if any other candidates jump in. Brogdon has no chance in running for Senate.

The primary purpose I see for Randy is in providing a choice for governor. I for one have not been pleased with Mary Fallin as governor. I did not vote for her in the 2010 primary, and as things stand do not plan on voting for her in the 2914 primary. She has done a poor job at governing in a conservative manner. Spending continues spiraling upward, and taxes have not been cut. Fiscally, Brad Henry did a better job than Fallin has.

I had issues with Brogdon's 2010 campaign (hence why I voted for Hubbard over Brogdon and Fallin). Will 2014 be any different?

RJ Harris: The Evolving Perennial Candidate

Governor Mary Fallin appears to have drawn her first opponent for the 2014 campaign, and the candidate comes with a colorful history.

Meet RJ Harris, Republican Libertarian Independent Democrat candidate for Congress President Congress Governor.

Let's examine the political evolution of Oklahoma's next great perennial candidate.

2010:

RJ Harris, Republican

RJ's first foray into politics was as a Republican candidate in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District in 2010. He lost to Congressman Tom Cole 77%-23%.

 2012:

RJ Harris, Libertarian

In August of 2011, Harris threw his hat into the ring for President -- this time as a Libertarian. After nine months of campaigning for the nomination, he withdrew his candidacy, citing fundraising difficulties.

RJ Harris, Independent

Since his presidential campaign didn't pan out, Harris ran for Congress again, but this time as an Independent. He came in third (5%), behind Congressman Cole (68%), and Democrat Donna Bebo (29%).

 2014:

RJ Harris, Democrat

Now, he's decided to run for Governor, and as a Democrat. So far, he is the only announced Democratic candidate.

The Daily Oklahoman newspaper writes that "Wallace Collins, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said Harris is a good candidate for the party and he supports his campaign."  I'll let that comment speak for itself.

The 2014 election is getting more and more interesting...

Jay Paul Gumm: From State Senator to Embezzler

Then: 2010

Now: 2013

Playing a role in putting a good candidate in office is a gratifying feeling. However, when the incumbent you helped defeat ends up in jail a few years later.... that is just the icing on the cake.

Thus is the sad situation that former State Sen. Jay Paul Gumm finds himself in now.


Back in 2010, I helped Republican Josh Brecheen, a first-time candidate, in his insurgent campaign against Gumm, the entrenched Democrat incumbent. Seemingly against all odds, in a 'Little Dixie' district that had never elected a Republican to the State Senate (more than 80% of voters were Democrats) and facing a two-term Senator, Brecheen procured 56% of the vote, and ousted one of Oklahoma's most prominent and promising Senate Democrats.

After losing the election, Gumm and his family moved to Mississippi, where he took the position of executive director for the Stone County Economic Development Partnership. On Friday, he was arrested for embezzling over $24,000 from the agency. According to news reports, Gumm is the third employee from the SCEDP to be accused of embezzlement in the past year (one woman embezzled over $300,000).

During the 2010 campaign, questions were raised about certain aspects of Gumm's finances (personal and campaign). Do his current money problems have a root in the past? We may never know, but voters in Senate District 6 can take heart that they put the right man in office in 2010 -- and kicked the right guy out.

Hulbert School Board Member Removed

The Tahlequah Daily Press reports that Hulbert school board member Charles Thompson was removed from office Monday for failing to meet professional development requirements set by state law.

School officials recently discovered Thompson had not accrued required professional development hours within his first 15 months on the board. According to state law, the board is required to make a seat vacant if the person elected to it hasn’t acquired 12 hours of professional development classes in that time frame.

“I want to apologize to everybody on the board, because I have clearly dropped the ball here on this,” said Thompson.  “This is not something I take lightly, and honestly, I hadn’t been keeping track of things myself. I think I got 15 or 18 hours all together, something like that. The classes I was attending, or the lectures I was attending, I thought counted toward that new-member training, and it didn’t.”  Thompson said some seminars he attended did count.

Thompson was asked if he had received letters from the state showing how many hours he had taken; he said that he had gotten a few letters.

“And when I first got elected, I went to a two-day seminar in Oklahoma City, and they gave me this nice, fancy little badge and told me I needed to take that with me and check in at each lecture, and that was the only time that I got to use it, because each time after that, they’d issue a new one, and I just wonder,” said Thompson. “They’ve got accountability for all of the hours, but, you know, honestly I wonder if there was some confusion, some misaccounting, if you will, on someone else’s part at the state level. Completely irrelevant, because I should be keeping track of it myself.”

Read more at this link. The seat remains vacant for the time being.

Thompson ran for Congress in 2010, and eventually became the Republican nominee. He received 43% of the vote against sitting 2nd District Congressman Dan Boren (D-Muskogee). This instance isn't the first time Thompson has had paperwork problems.

'The Conservative View': Pizza and Politics

This week's Conservative View, by former Adair County Commissioner and conservative activist Russell Turner.

The Conservative View
by Russell Turner

Pizza and Politics

We Americans have had things so easy for so long that we expect all of our problems to be solved in about the time it would take to cook a pizza. All of us at one time or another have ordered a pizza, usually in about 10 minutes we can pick up our meal and avoid starvation. We have lived in a fast paced society for so long that we think that all of our problems should be solved in a short period of time; sadly that is seldom the case.

Just a little over a week ago we Americans made history by giving the liberals a stinging defeat. While it is reassuring to see that the American people remembered their conservative roots, we need to come to the realization that electing conservative leaders is merely the first step. The problems in our country didn’t come about over night and the solution to our country’s problems will not happen overnight. We Americans have become too comfortable with all of the government programs that our citizens take advantage of at an ever increasing rate. We Americans said with a loud voice that we want more fiscal responsibility and smaller government, but it will be interesting to see if that mentality holds true when the tough decisions have to be made.

For this country to get its financial house in order, there will have to be a major change of attitude across the entire country. It is a fact that whenever some program has to be cut we all want it to be someone else’s program and not ours. Our government budget has become so large that merely trimming the fat will not be sufficient. Over the years our elected leaders have been so concerned with getting re-elected that they would create programs and spend money that we didn’t have to garner votes for the next election cycle. While we like to blame the politicians for all of the problems of our country, we the citizens bear a large part of the blame ourselves. Whenever we adopt the attitude of asking the politicians “what can you do for me today” the simple politician will come up with some scheme to satisfy the voters for a day, whereas the true statesman is looking for a solution for the future and will not play the instant gratification game. Wanting a pizza in 10 minutes may not be inappropriate, but we Americans must be ready for the long haul if we are able to correct the excesses of the past. We are just like a person starting a diet; the decision has been made, now the work begins.

If you wish to contact Russell Turner, or want to subscribe to his email loop, email him at rdrepublican@windstream.net.

General Elections Results - Average Percentage

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

This is the granddaddy of all of my election results maps: the average percentage graphic. I plugged in all of the vote totals for every statewide race, plus the straight party voting totals, and this is what it came to.

Granted, this does not show results for state legislative and congressional races (although it does have straight party voting for each), but nothing shows the true extent of the GOP tidal wave here in Oklahoma like this map does.

Averaged out, only one county (Coal County) had more Democrat votes than Republican votes. It also shows that the Democrats traditional stronghold of Little Dixie is shrinking rapidly, from all directions.

Voter registration and voting are now trending heavily in the Republicans favor. Oklahoma Democrats, watch out for 2012...

General Election Results - Legislative Straight-Party Voting

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

This is the map for straight-party voting on state legislative races (State House and State Senate). For other straight-party voting maps, go here for the state-level statewide races, and here for the federal-level races.

This particular map is somewhat deceptive, as not all counties had legislative races (competitive or otherwise), and in many cases only a small portion of the county had a legislative election. For example, Pontotoc County had a grand total of 127 state legislative straight-party votes, while they had 2,850 federal straight-party votes, and 3,101 statewide-office straight-party votes. Take this particular map with a grain of salt.

General Election Results - U.S. Senate

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

General Election Results - Lt. Governor

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

General Election Results - State Superintendent

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

General Election Results - Labor Commissioner

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

General Election Results - Insurance Commissioner

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

And yes, Doak and Holland tied at 899 votes apiece in Cotton County.

General Election Results - Federal Straight-Party Voting

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

This is the map for straight-party voting on federal races (U.S. House and U.S. Senate). Click here for the state-level statewide races.

General Election Results - Attorney General

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

General Election Results - State Auditor

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.