Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Poll: Stitt grows lead over Hofmeister, Mullin and Shannon lead Senate race, AG race getting tighter

Interesting stuff:

Amber Integrated Releases Survey on Upcoming Primary and General Elections

OKLAHOMA CITY – The Oklahoma-based public affairs firm Amber Integrated has released two surveys measuring attitudes about the current political environment and the upcoming primary and general elections in Oklahoma.

The first of these surveys was conducted from June 6-9, 2022 and included a pool of 400 likely GOP primary voters in Oklahoma.  It has a margin of error of 4.9% at a 95% confidence interval. 

The second of these surveys was also conducted from June 6-9, 2022, and included a pool of 795 likely general election voters in Oklahoma. This survey has a margin of error of 3.47% at a 95% confidence interval. 

Crosstabs for both surveys are available here.

Some key observations from both surveys are below:

GOP Primary Survey

  • Gov. Kevin Stitt has consolidated his lead in the GOP primary for governor. In March, 59% of Republican primary voters said they planned on voting for Stitt or leaned towards Stitt, versus 15% for his opponent, Mark Sherwood. In June, the addition of Joel Kintsel to the race has not impacted Stitt’s standing. Fully 61% of GOP primary voters now say they plan on voting for Stitt, with Sherwood standing at 8% and Kintsel at 4%. Rather than drawing votes away from Stitt, Kintsel seems poised to split votes with Sherwood among primary voters looking for a new Republican standard-bearer.
  • John O’Connor trails Gentner Drummond in the race for GOP nominee for attorney general, but has narrowed the lead slightly. In March, Drummond led O’Connor by 21 points, with 37% saying they would vote or leaned towards voting for Drummond and 16% saying the same of O’Connor. In June, that gap has narrowed to a 13-point lead, with O’Connor polling at 28% to Drummond’s 41%.
  • The race for state superintendent is a dead heat. Thirteen percent of GOP voters say they will vote or lean towards voting for April Grace, 14% for Ryan Walters, and 17% for John Cox, all within the margin of error. Fifty-four percent remain undecided.
  • The race to replace U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe looks like a two-man contest with a possible run-off. Thirty-eight percent of GOP voters say they will vote or lean towards voting for Congressman Markwayne Mullin, with 19% saying they will vote or lean towards voting for T.W. Shannon. No other candidate has broken into double digits, and 22% of GOP voters remain undecided. 
  • Voters are overwhelmingly undecided on other down-ballot primary races, but some candidates are emerging as front-runners. In the race for State Auditor and Inspector, incumbent Cindy Byrd has a 12-point lead, although she is only polling at 27% and 57% of voters remain undecided. In the race for Commissioner of Labor, 25% of voters say they will vote or lean towards voting for Leslie Osborn, as opposed to 19% for Sean Roberts, with 52% undecided. In the race for the GOP nomination for Oklahoma State Treasurer, Todd Russ has a small edge over his opponents, polling at 19% support compared to 14% for Clark Jolley and 13% for David Hooten.


Likely Voter/ General Election Survey

  • Voters: Biden/Harris = Very Bad. Just 28% of voters have a positive view of President Joe Biden, with 68% having a negative view. Vice President Kamala Harris’ splits are 26/63.
  • Governor Kevin Stitt’s job approval is holding and his lead over Joy Hofmeister has increased slightly. Forty-nine percent of Oklahomans say they approve of the job the governor has done, compared to 46 who disapprove. That +3% spread is the same as it was in a poll taken in March. On the gubernatorial ballot, Stitt has slightly widened his lead over Hofmeister. Forty-seven percent of voters say they plan on voting for Stitt or lean towards Stitt, versus 29% who say they will vote for Hofmeister or lean Hofmeister, an 18-point lead for Stitt. In March, Stitt had a 14-point lead, with 44% support compared to 30% for Hofmeister.
  • The Legislature is also fairly popular. Forty-six percent approve of the job the Oklahoma State Legislature is doing, versus 42% who disapprove. 
  • Likely voters care about jobs and the economy, education and – for the first time – gun control. Twenty-seven percent of all voters name the economy as their number one priority, 19% say education, and 16% say gun control. Republicans list their priorities as the economy (33%), immigration (15%), and education (15%). Democrats list theirs as education (27%), gun control (25%) and jobs and the economy (18%).

About Amber Integrated:
Amber Integrated is a fully integrated public affairs firm, offering services in lobbying and government relations, political campaign consulting, media relations and communications, digital marketing and advertising, and survey research. Amber Integrated focuses on analytically driven strategies, quantitative research and digitally focused campaigns that deliver successful outcomes for our clients, which include Fortune 500 companies, elected officials, non-profits, and businesses of all sizes.

: not mentioned in the Amber Integrated press release was the survey results on the
other U.S. Senate race, between incumbent James Lankford and challengers Jackson Lahmeyer and Joan Farr, so I'll sum that one up with figures from their crosstabs (March crosstabs available here). The following figures are "plan to vote for" plus "leaning toward"; numbers in parentheses are from Amber Integrated's March poll:

  • Lankford: 68% (63%)
  • Lahmeyer: 12% (10%)
  • Farr: 4% (0%)
  • Refused/Undecided: 15% (24%)
In a surprise to nobody outside of a certain political bubble (with candidates touting identical endorsements from the same cranks and nutjobs), Lankford will win in a landslide.]


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