Tuesday, June 14, 2022

BatesLine: don't vote yet - conservatives need to consolidate to get a candidate in the runoff

Michael Bates, the bonafide "elder statesman" of Oklahoma's conservative blogosphere (with a blog dating back to 2003), is out with an informational mega-post on the GOP Senate primary for the seat being vacated mid-tern by Jim Inhofe. In it, Bates presents some basic details about the candidates, along with links to campaign sites and further information.

Bates makes the case that absentee voters, especially conservatives, should hold off on picking a candidate just yet:

Because only two candidates can advance to the August runoff, conservative voters will need to consolidate around a single champion in the primary to have any hope of having someone worth voting for in the runoff. Polling and spending will be important factors for casting a strategic vote in June. I've been encouraging absentee voters to hold off voting until we have a clearer picture of the battlefield. The pre-election FEC reports will be telling. Sooner Poll polled this race and other statewide and congressional races, but they only managed a sample of 306 voters over a 17-day period, and 31.4% of voters were undecided. [emphasis mine]

This advice could certainly also apply to the 2nd Congressional District race, where 14 Republicans are running for the open seat currently held by Markwayne Mullin (who is seeking the open Senate seat). 

As Bates points out, the pending FEC reports and further public polling (which has been completely nonexistent in the CD2 race) will help give a clearer picture of both the open Senate and CD2 races.

I'll do a follow-up post on what "tiers" I currently sort the Senate and CD2 races into. In the meantime, Bates makes a good point. There are certain candidates that are leading or in the top tier in both races that conservatives need to defeat. You might want to hold your powder for just a little longer.


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