Small: Tribes go AWOL on McGirt response

Tribes go AWOL on McGirt response

By Jonathan Small

Tribal-government officials say they can handle the new responsibilities placed on them as the result of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in McGirt v. Oklahoma, which effectively declared most of eastern Oklahoma to be the reservation land of the Muscogee, Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw and Seminole nations.

Yet, when given the opportunity to publicly discuss how they will preserve public safety on reservation land at a recent Tulsa forum, the leaders of all five tribes went AWOL. They didn’t respond to invitations. They didn’t show up.

That (in)action sent a loud message about the seriousness of tribal leaders and provides no comfort to the 1.8 million Oklahomans living in eastern Oklahoma.

Because of McGirt, state officials cannot arrest or prosecute criminals with any degree of tribal heritage in eastern Oklahoma, while tribal courts have little authority over non-Indians. That leaves the federal government to prosecute most crimes involving a tribal-member victim or perpetrator. Unfortunately, the federal government isn’t doing so.

Although federal law-enforcement officials are investigating major crimes (murder, rape, etc.), lower-level crimes such as theft are not being prosecuted. Rogers County District Attorney Matt Ballard said federal officials are declining to prosecute 95 percent of crimes reported to them. Seminole County District Attorney Paul Smith similarly said many crimes in eastern Oklahoma now “go unaddressed.”

The victims are citizens of all backgrounds—including tribal citizens. Who is going to protect those Oklahomans?

In convening and attending the forum, Gov. Kevin Stitt and district attorneys from areas affected by McGirt showed they are prepared to lead. Stitt also showed leadership in challenging the Biden administration’s effort to federalize mining regulation in eastern Oklahoma because of McGirt.

That’s in sharp contrast to tribal officials. While tribal leaders were invited to the Tulsa forum, the governor’s office received no response, despite numerous follow-up efforts.

Instead, Muscogee Nation Principal Chief David Hill issued a statement decrying the forum as a “one-sided” political campaign that is “intended only to spread misinformation.” What information presented at the forum does the Muscogee Nation dispute? Hill didn’t say.

There has been an abundance of political rhetoric from tribal leaders like Hill, but an almost complete absence of meaningful conversation on how they will preserve public safety when both state and tribal governments have little ability to prosecute crimes on reservation land and the federal government isn’t prosecuting most crimes.

Oklahomans of all backgrounds deserve answers.

Some tribal officials describe McGirt as an opportunity. But the reality is that economic opportunity is going to be very limited and dwindle quickly in eastern Oklahoma if basic public safety cannot be maintained.

There is no path forward for Oklahoma that does not involve consistent enforcement of the law for all Oklahomans of all backgrounds. Those who duck this discussion forfeit their right to call themselves leaders.

Jonathan Small serves as president of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs.

OCPA column: Different rules for different Oklahomans?

Different rules for different Oklahomans?

By Jonathan Small

The repercussions of the U.S. Supreme Court’s McGirt v. Oklahoma decision, which effectively re-established the Muscogee (Creek) Nation’s reservation, suggest Oklahomans have reason to fear we will live under two different sets of rules based on a citizen’s heritage.

The McGirt decision dealt only with criminal prosecutions and Creek land, but it is expected impact a far broader range of issues also involving the territories of the Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole nations, or nearly half the state of Oklahoma—and perhaps more.

Those who suggest McGirt will affect only criminal prosecutions ignore the fact that tribal leaders clearly think otherwise. Muscogee (Creek) Nation Principal Chief David Hill recently confirmed to OETA that his tribe is looking at how the decision may expand tribal authority in taxation and regulation. Choctaw Nation Chief Gary Batton has similarly said his tribe has “identified five broad categories of questions we see arising from McGirt: law enforcement, judicial, taxation, regulatory, and Indian child welfare.”

Those aren’t minor issues.

David Hill endorses Terry Neese in 5th District runoff

DAVID HILL ENDORSES TERRY NEESE IN OKLAHOMA’S 5TH DISTRICT RACE

Hill: “Terry Neese is a pro-life, pro-gun, conservative, and she has our full support as she fights to beat Kendra Horn and deliver President Trump’s agenda.”

Oklahoma City, OK – David Hill, successful businessman and former Republican candidate for Oklahoma’s 5th congressional district, has endorsed Terry Neese for Congress ahead of the August 25th runoff election. Hill placed third in the recent primary election on June 30th, receiving 19 percent of the vote.

“After a hard-fought primary campaign, my wife Shannon and I have decided to endorse Terry Neese for Congress,” said David Hill. “Oklahomans cannot afford more taxes, open borders, or the socialist agenda being peddled by left-wing Democrats. We need to defeat liberal Kendra Horn, fire Nancy Pelosi, and flip the House Red this Fall. Terry Neese is a pro-life, pro-gun, conservative, and she has our full support as she fights to beat Kendra Horn and deliver President Trump’s agenda.”

OK College Republicans holding CD5 primary debate Friday evening

The Oklahoma College Republicans are hosting a candidate debate for the 5th Congressional District GOP primary, which will be livestreamed on Facebook tomorrow (Friday, June 12th) at 7:00pm.

Hill announces $500k in campaign donations

David Hill for Congress Tops Half Million in Donations

OKLAHOMA CITY — Republican candidate David Hill announced today that his campaign has surpassed the $500,000 threshold of contributions to his campaign for Congress. Hill, running to unseat Nancy Pelosi-supporter Kendra Horn, is a conservative businessman who has never held political office.

"Our campaign continues to gain momentum," Hill stated. "I am spending all day, every day, speaking with conservatives who are fed-up with politics as usual, who want to send more people from the business world to support President Trump," Hill continued. "I am excited our donors reflect the 5th district, not the political elite. Together, we will give this seat back to the people and take it away from career politicians."

David Hill for Congress announced 100 members on Faith Coalition list

Hill Faith Coalition Tops 100 Christian Leaders

OKLAHOMA CITY — The David Hill for Congress campaign today announced their "Faith Coalition" has surpassed 100 members. Membership includes pastors and other faith leaders who serve individuals in Oklahoma's Fifth Congressional District.

"We are very excited about the momentum our campaign is building," stated businessman and conservative outsider David Hill. "But even more impactful is the willingness of these leaders to highlight the political, world issues important to the faith community and Oklahomans. They are helping spread the word that the rights of the unborn matter, that our religious liberties are paramount, and that Christians will engage in politics to be certain their voices are heard. I am proud that our campaign is focused on representing these beliefs that are so important to me and my family," stated Hill.

Morton Blackwell's Conservative Leadership PAC endorses Hill for Congress

Fresh on the heels of an endorsement by David Barton, 5th District GOP candidate David Hill has announced another endorsement by a respected conservative icon:

Conservative Leadership PAC Endorses David Hill for U.S. Congress

Conservative Icon Morton Blackwell describes Hill as “the conservative champion we need.”

OKLAHOMA CITY — The Conservative Leadership PAC announced its endorsement of David Hill in the Republican primary for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District.

"David Hill’s real-world business experience and conservative values make him the right choice in this race," said Morton Blackwell, founder and Chairman of the Conservative Leadership PAC.  "Today more than ever, we need true conservatives, not politicians who are conservative when standing for election but moderates or liberals when in office," Blackwell continued.  "David Hill is the conservative champion we need on Capitol Hill. We are excited to support him."

David Barton endorses Hill for Congress, hosting rally in OKC on June 18th

David Barton Endorses David Hill andAnnounces Rally for June 18th

Conservative author, historian, and speaker David Barton will host a rally for David Hill in Oklahoma City

OKLAHOMA CITY — David Barton, best-selling author, historian, and speaker, announced his endorsement of David Hill in the Republican primary for U.S. Congress for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District. Along with the endorsement, Barton announced that he will host an event on behalf of David Hill:

"Rebuilding America"

June 18, 2020 at 7:30 PM

The Hobby Lobby Finance & Technology Center

7707 SW 44th Street, Oklahoma City, OK

"What we need in America right now are leaders with the courage of their convictions, unafraid to standup for President Trump, fight the liberal lunacy in Washington, and rebuild America!" stated David Barton. "That’s why I’m supporting David Hill for Congress. He’s not a politician. He’s a God-fearing constitutionalist and a manufacturer who will support Trump and fight for America."

Hill accepts 5th District debate invite, applauds choice of Lankford as moderator

David Hill Accepts Debate Invitation

Hill applauds choice of Senator James Lankford to moderate discussion

OKLAHOMA CITY — David Hill, successful manufacturer and candidate for Congress, accepted an invitation to participate in a debate on May 29th hosted by the Congressional District 5 Republicans.

"Last week, we promised to appear in any debate, in any place, at any time, and we are happy to fulfill that pledge today," stated Abby Roesch, campaign manager for David Hill for Congress. "There are very real differences among the Republican candidates for Congress, and this will be a great opportunity to showcase how someone from the business world can better represent conservative values than those who have been a part of the political establishment," Roesch continued.

The debate will be moderated by Senator James Lankford and broadcasted live on local radio.

David Hill calls for debates in 5th District GOP primary

'Let’s Debate!' Hill for Congress Gaines Momentum, Calls for Public Debate

OKLAHOMA CITY (May 12th, 2020) — Republican businessman David Hill today called on the media, civic groups, and the other Republican candidates for Congress in Oklahoma to participate in a series of debates and forums.

"The stakes are extremely high," Hill stated. "This congressional seat could determine if Nancy Pelosi remains Speaker of the House. It is vital that Republicans understand the differences among their candidates and nominate a conservative who can fix Congress, and that starts with defeating Kendra Horn," Hill continued.

"We cannot let this pandemic keep voters from being informed," stated Hill. "Traditionally, civic clubs and others have provided forums where voters can hear directly from candidates instead of through 30-second television commercials or other forms of slick advertising. But because of the current crisis, these organizations are not meeting," Hill continued. "Our campaign is committed to helping them and media outlets to ensure voters at least have the opportunity to be well-informed."

"While the other major candidates have been in public office or have been a statewide nominee, our campaign clearly has the momentum," stated campaign manager Abby Roesch. "Look no further than President Trump or Governor Stitt to understand that it's not just the politicians who should be debating. The business leader should also be included."

The David Hill for Congress campaign has raised more than $340,000 as of the last Federal Election Commission (FEC) filing and has seen its social media grow with Facebook followers now eclipsing 3,200 — second most of any Republican in the contest.

"It might seem odd that the candidate calling for debates is the one without a political resume, but David is ready to share his business background and talk about the issues of great importance to him: protecting life, bringing manufacturing back to the United States, and supporting President Trump," Roesch concluded.

David Hill is currently CEO of Mar-K, the nation’s leading manufacturer of parts for classic cars. During his time as CEO of Kimray, Inc., Hill was named one of Oklahoma’s most admired CEOs. Hill co-founded the Oklahoma City Memorial Marathon and, along with his wife of 26 years, Shannon, co-founded Providence Hall Classical Christian School (now The Academy of Classical Christian Studies).

40 pastors and religious leaders endorse David Hill for Congress

40 Faith Leaders Announce Support for David Hill

OKLAHOMA CITY — A growing list of faith leaders announced their support for conservative Republican David Hill in his race for Congress. Already numbering 40, these faith leaders span the entire district.

"We are excited to have a candidate of the quality of David Hill in the race," stated Paul Abner, an Oklahoma minister for 40 years, who helped organize the group. "Far too often the faith community is either ignored or taken for granted in politics. David Hill has taken the time to visit with us and knows how important faith issues like the right-to-life and religious liberty are to those he intends to represent," Abner continued.

"David Hill has a deep understanding of the importance of both faith and the faith community," stated Dr. Ted Kersh, one of the pastors on the list. "David’s personal faith and the value he places upon issues important to us is evident from the first moment you visit with him," Kersh continued.

Steve Green, President of Hobby Lobby and Board Chairman for Museum of the Bible is among those listed. Green also serves as a co-chair for the Hill campaign.

David Hill files to run for Congress in 5th District

Conservative Businessman and Political Outsider, David Hill, Files to Run for Congress in CD-5

OKLAHOMA CITY — Today, David Hill filed with the State Election Board to officially list his name as a candidate for the U.S. Congress, challenging current Democrat incumbent, Kendra Horn. David Hill is a newcomer to politics, but he is eager to bring his decades of experience in heavy industrial manufacturing, energy, and education with him to Washington, D.C.

“I’m excited to announce that my campaign has officially filed and will be on the Republican ballot on June 30th,” Hill said. “People are tired of sending the same politicians to Washington who neglect hard-working Oklahomans and serve special interests and political agendas."

When asked about his platform, Hill responded, “I want to fix Congress, fight for President Trump, and serve Oklahomans. I’m confident that my outsider perspective and business experience will help tremendously as we confront today’s challenges and bring common sense back to Washington.”

David Hill is the CEO and owner of MAR-K, the world’s largest manufacturer of over 6,000 component parts for classic cars and trucks. David lives in Edmond, Oklahoma, with his wife of 26 years, Shannon. They have six children, including three daughters, and three sons who all serve in the Army.

Hill added to NRCC's 'Young Guns'; focuses campaign online during COVID-19 crisis

McCarthy Adds David Hill To 2020 "Young Guns" Program

WASHINGTON (March 16th, 2020) — On Wednesday, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy added David Hill, candidate for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, to the National Republican Congressional Committee's (NRCC’s) Young Guns program. According to Leader McCarthy, “The program mentors and supports candidates... and works to provide them with the necessary tools to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents.”

“I am excited about my campaign’s growing momentum," Hill said. "The National Republican Congressional Committee is a strong partner in our effort to unseat liberal Kendra Horn, and I’m honored to have been accepted into the NRCC’s Young Guns program. Oklahomans are desperate for new leaders, not the same political farm team that goes to Washington and serves special interests while building a career. I’m not going to Washington for a career, but to support President Trump’s agenda and represent all Oklahomans."

Recently, Roll Call listed Kendra Horn as the most vulnerable Democrat running for Congress in 2020, and the NRCC has made it known that their path to retaking the House runs through Oklahoma. Voters will decide on a Republican nominee to challenge Democrat Kendra Horn on June 30th.

Campaign Improves Communication in Wake of COVID-19

OKLAHOMA CITY (March 17th, 2020) — Today, the David Hill for Oklahoma congressional campaign announced that its campaign operations will focus on using technology to safely connect with voters across the 5th Congressional District. The campaign will postpone large events, and temporarily halt volunteer door-to-door canvassing. These voter contact experiences will be replaced by small group meetings, phone calls, text banking, and other technologies consistent with social distancing recommended by the federal, state, and local governments.

Hill’s campaign manager, Tyler Moore, stated, “It is important we show Oklahomans there’s an opportunity to send a true conservative businessman and political outsider to Washington, instead of the same politicians that work for themselves or special interests. At the same time, our campaign has an obligation to protect our volunteers, interns, and staff as well as the public, and will therefore heed the directives given by government leaders concerning COVID-19. While we are anxious to get back on the doorstep, we believe ramping up these approaches will still show voters David Hill is the right choice to fix congress.”

David Hill stated, “I am pleased our campaign is prepared to move forward with a new focus on delivering our message digitally while activating our growing volunteer network remotely. I urge Oklahomans to follow the instructions of our health and public safety authorities but remain steadfast and know that in time, we will return to our daily lives as normal."

David Hill is a Republican running for Congress in the 5th Congressional District. He is also the owner and CEO of MAR-K, the nation’s leading manufacturer of over 6,000 component parts for classic cars and trucks. Hill and his wife, Shannon, have been married for 26 years. They have three boys and three girls.

David Hill for Congress launches first campaign video

David Hill for Congress Launches First Campaign Video

Introductory video presents David Hill as a conservative businessman and political outsider

OKLAHOMA CITY — This week, the David Hill for Oklahoma campaign released its first video of the election cycle, titled "Fix Congress.” The video introduces David Hill, his family, and his background of service.

Entering the race as an outsider to politics, Hill’s introductory video highlights his business acumen — solving complex problems and growing jobs as the former CEO of Kimray and the current CEO and owner of Mar-K, the nation’s leading manufacturer of over 6,000 component parts for classic cars and trucks. The video also touches on David’s commitment to serving Oklahomans as a co-founder of the Oklahoma City Memorial Marathon.

Posted on the campaign’s Facebook page, the video outlines President Donald Trump’s success and David’s commitment to defending and furthering President Trump’s "America First" agenda.

“I’m excited to show Oklahomans that they don’t have to keep sending the same politicians to Washington, only to get the same results," Hill explained. "As I stated in my video, President Trump is fighting the good fight, but he needs allies in Congress. Kendra Horn turned her back on Oklahoma the first day when she voted for Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, and then she voted for the sham impeachment.  When elected to Congress, I will promote Oklahoma, not liberal, values.”

The Republican Primary for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District is on June 30th. The Republican nominee will go on to challenge incumbent Democrat Kendra Horn in November’s general election.

Family Research Council Action PAC endorses David Hill for Congress

David Hill Endorsed by Family Research Council Action PAC 

(Oklahoma City, OK -- February 11th) Today, Family Research Council’s Action PAC, an organization that supports candidates for elected office who will defend religious liberty, family values, and the sanctity of human life, endorsed David Hill for Congress.

According to a statement from Lt. Gen. (Ret.) William G. Boykin, the PAC’s Executive Vice President,

“FRC Action PAC is proud to endorse David Hill for Congress in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District. We have met with David, discussed important issues with him at length, and evaluated his positions. He is deeply committed to the values we hold dear. He is pro-life and will be an ardent defender of life in Congress. He also understands the essential role of strong families if our nation is to thrive. Furthermore, he has demonstrated his commitment to protecting religious freedom and our right to live out our deeply-held religious beliefs. David will fight for these issues in Congress and that is what our nation needs at this important time." 

David was honored by the endorsement, saying, “I’m incredibly proud to have FRC Action PAC’s strong support. Working together, we will stand with President Trump, defend the sanctity of life, and fight the radical Left’s ongoing assault on our religious liberty.”

During the last election cycle in Oklahoma, FRC Action PAC gave endorsements to Governor Kevin Stitt and Tulsa Congressman Kevin Hern, also known for their pro-life stances.

David Hill raises $205k in 5th District race, has $172k on-hand

David Hill Raises $205k in First Quarter of Fundraising, has $172k Cash on Hand

Today, the David Hill for Oklahoma congressional campaign filed its quarterly FEC report, revealing it has raised $205,000 and posting $172,000 cash on hand. David Hill is the first candidate in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District to eclipse $200,000 in its first quarter of fundraising activity. Over the last month, David Hill for Oklahoma also welcomed four campaign co-chairmen, Harold Hamm, Steve Green, Dr. Suzanne Reynolds and Pat Rooney.

“I’m tremendously motivated by the level of support my campaign has received in the three months we’ve had to raise dollars”, stated David Hill.

He continued, “It’s clear Oklahomans are ready to send a conservative outsider to Congress that will stand behind President Donald Trump and fight the radical left in Washington.

David Hill announces campaign co-chairs, including Steve Green and Harold Hamm

Steve Green, Harold Hamm, Suzanne Reynolds, Pat Rooney to Co-Chair David Hill Congressional Effort

Local leaders point to Hill’s conservative values and commitment to fix Congress

The David Hill for Oklahoma congressional campaign today announced that leaders Steve Green, Harold Hamm, Suzanne Reynolds, and Pat Rooney will co-chair his campaign for U.S. Congress.

“David Hill is the leader we need at this time in our history,” stated Steve Green, President of Hobby Lobby and Board Chairman for Museum of the Bible. “David’s motive for running is to serve the state and nation he loves, not to build a political resume. His success in the business world, his deep and genuine faith, and the extraordinary family he has raised should give voters the confidence that David is the voice the Fifth District needs to fix Congress,” Green continued. 

“David Hill is exactly what Washington needs,” stated Harold Hamm, Founder and Executive Chairman of Continental Resources. “The Trump Administration’s positive impact on the economy illustrates the transformative impact a business leader can make in Washington. David Hill will bring his business acumen and needed outsider perspective as he represents the hard-working people of Oklahoma,” Hamm continued.

“I have known David, his wife Shannon, and their children for over 10 years,” stated Dr. Suzanne Reynolds. “Shannon and David are a true team that has raised six outstanding children. When they saw a need, they founded a Christian school.  When David saw an opportunity to launch a marathon to support the Oklahoma City National Memorial and Museum, he didn’t just talk, he went to work.  That hard work and is what we can expect from David in Washington.”  Dr. Reynolds is a well-respected community volunteer who has been vital in efforts ranging from Oklahoma City Ballet, Lyric Theater and the Junior League to the Susan G. Komen Pink Tie Ball and the Oklahoma County Medical Society Alliance.

“David Hill’s distinguished career as a job-creator in the manufacturing sector proves he is a problem solver. And as we know, there are many problems in Washington to be solved, specifically, Nancy Pelosi and her ilk,” said Pat Rooney, CEO of First National Bank of Oklahoma.

“From my business experience, I know that success starts with building a great team,” David Hill stated.  “I am incredibly pleased to have these outstanding Oklahoma leaders co-chairing our team. Combined, these leaders have touched untold lives through providing jobs and being incredible philanthropists.  They will provide me with invaluable advice, insight, and networks so we can reach voters and share my vision for fixing Washington.”

GOP candidate David Hill comments on Horn's support of Trump impeachment

Hill Statement on Horn Impeachment Announcement 

David Hill, candidate for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District released the following statement after Kendra Horn announced she would vote for the impeachment of President Trump.

“Kendra Horn has turned her back on Oklahoma. She promised to be independent but her vote for impeachment shows that she's just another partisan politician. President Trump has done nothing to deserve this. The liberals in Congress are running roughshod over our Constitution.”

Insiders Panel: a briefing on the top tier candidates in CD5

As promised on Friday, I am publishing comments in full by one of the MuskogeePolitico.com Insiders Panel members. This particular insider has the experience and connections to provide information about Oklahoma politics that many don't have access to.

5th District GOP Primary: Top 4 candidates examined

by a member of the MuskogeePolitico.com Insiders Panel

Even though the race for Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District has drawn many candidates, I feel there are only four viable candidates on the ticket. Quite simply, the winner will be a combination of who has the most money and who runs the best campaign. This seems like an oversimplified statement but it is actually quite complex in 2020. Let's take a look at the top four candidates in the order I believe they will win on the primary ballot:

#1) Terry Neese. Terry has been deeply involved in OKC for 40 years. She started Terry Neese Personnel and has become a national figure speaking before Congress on issues related to small business and women-owned business. Terry created The Institute for Economic Empowerment of Women and its subsidiary Peace Through Business, which helps women from war torn countries learn how to start a business. Why does this matter? Because Terry has the credentials to match Kendra Horn when it comes to women's issues. Some pollsters say this is a "women's race" for CD 5 and I think Terry is the only candidate with deep enough roots with the women voters to beat Horn.

Neese has put $450,000 of her own money in the race and has been frugal with expenses, leaving over $640,000 in the bank at the end of the 3rd quarter.

#2) Stephanie Bice. Stephanie enjoys the luxury of being a sitting State Senator who was recruited to run for this seat. She had told many people she was not running, but the offer of campaign help from heavy hitters in DC along with deep ties to PAC money to finance her campaign convinced her to run. Bice is a young, attractive candidate that many think will appeal to the young voters and could match Horn for the young women and professional vote. She has had a working campaign staff for several months and has spent much of the money she has raised. Stephanie is the only candidate to have sent 2 mailers and paid for digital ads which is boasting her name recognition.

Watch the Senate agenda and bill sponsorship for Bice to head up key legislation that will get her free press and name recognition. Being a political insider may have benefits, but in the current climate, Bice may suffer because of being a current elected official. Bice will not have to give up her seat to run for Congress and if she wins there will have to be a special election to replace her.

#3) David Hill. David is from the well respected Hill family that owns Kimray manufacturing and were the financiers behind Character Training Institute. David and his wife are both wealthy and could self-finance. While the name Hill is popular in some circles in OKC, David has very low name recognition and will have to spend a lot of money to overcome the popularity of the other three top tier candidates. Polls suggest it is harder for a male to win an election going head to head with a female and the country is very focused on female candidates. For this reason, I list Hill as #3.

#4) Janet Barresi. Janet is very well known having served as State Superintendent of Education, but I believe that is also her greatest downfall. Teachers do not like Barresi and polls show Republicans will either not vote or vote for Horn over Barresi in the general election. In her race for re-election Janet put in over a million dollars of her own money and still lost by 10 points. Barresi's primary support will come from School Choice and OCPA supporters. I do not believe she has the support to beat incumbent Kendra Horn.

I believe a ground game is critical to winning CD5. Bice will be tied up in session so the other 3 candidates have the upper hand for having the time to be on the doorsteps. The primary will cost at least two million dollars, and with a guaranteed run-off cost of another million, whoever wins the Republican nomination will have spent millions before they face Kendra Horn. Money is the #1 key to winning this election!

I have heard a rumor of an additional well-known candidate getting in the race but at this point I believe if anyone else decides to jump in they will suffer the fate of Democratic Presidential candidate Deval Patrick -- too little, too late.

This column was penned by a member of the MuskogeePolitico.com Insiders Panel. This insider is well-positioned to provide key insights on Oklahoma politics. To read thoughts by the rest of the Insiders Panel, read my post entitled 'Insiders Panel on CD5 race: GOP top tier clear, leader still uncertain'.

Insiders Panel on CD5 race: GOP top tier clear, leader still uncertain

As announced earlier this week, I have put together a MuskogeePolitico.com Insiders Panel to discuss certain aspects of 2020 Oklahoma politics with people "in the know". The anonymity of the panel is designed to allow them to more freely express their thoughts, giving an inside look at some behind the scenes moves and trends across the state.

The first topic that the Insiders Panel has discussed is the 5th Congressional District campaign. I posed five questions to the members, and received comment in detail on each.

1. Which candidates do you view as being in the top tier?
2. Which candidate would you currently put in the lead?
3. Which candidate(s), if any, do you think will drop out before filing day? 
4. Which candidate has the best potential to beat Horn? 
5. Do you anticipate anyone else of import joining the race?

Let's dive in to the commentary.

1. Which candidates do you view as being in the top tier? 

Panelists were bullish on Terry Neese and Stephanie Bice, with every respondent including the two in their top tier. David Hill was included by four, with some caveats, while two included Janet Barresi.

An Oklahoma City-area panelist had this to say: "Tier 1 would be Neese, Bice, Barresi and Hill in no particular order. Hill may be tier 2 depending on how much of his own money he puts in."

A figure involved in government agreed on Hill's uncertain position. "I see this as a Bice vs Neese runoff right now. David Hill is the wildcard."

A longtime insider said this: "Even though the race for OK-5 has drawn many candidates, I feel there are only 4 viable candidates on the ticket (Neese, Bice, Hill, Barresi). Quite simply the winner will be a combination of who has the most money and who runs the best campaign. This seems like an oversimplified statement but it is actually quite complex in 2020."

Two others, from outside of the 5th District, agreed that Bice, Hill, and Neese make up the top tier, in no particular order. A rural member added Ballard. 

2. Which candidate would you currently put in the lead? 

A Tulsa area activist put it this way: "I'd put Neese in the lead as she's making the clearest pitch to the Republican, pro-Trump, base."

Taking a slightly different angle, this was from an OKC metro activist: "I would put Bice in the lead, just for name ID."

Some expressed concern over the lack of a clear leader: "It’s evenly tilted in my mind. No candidate has truly showed themselves to be the front runner, which is concerning when multiple candidates can put in millions of dollars and the Democrat incumbent has a massive war chest."

This comment came from a person experienced in campaigns: "Bice and Barresi both have bases of support. Granted, Barresi also has serious baggage with pro-education voters. Bice had the highest re-election percentage of any incumbent Senator, running in the 70’s in the primary and general elections in 2018. Stitt won 7 of her 13 precincts, showing she is very strong where known. Neese just hasn’t been on the ballot since 1994. The electorate has changed and I’m sure her name ID starts very low. She has put a lot of money in but Bice has actually out raised her from donors. That's why I would say Bice and Barresi have the edge for now."

A legislator said that Neese was the clear frontrunner. 

3.Which candidate(s), if any, do you think will drop out before filing day? 

An OKC metro panelist made this response: "I don’t think any of those [Bice, Neese, Hill, Barresi] will drop out. This race is headed for a run-off. I'm sure we will get into that more closely to the elections. None of the other candidates are known or raised money to even begin campaigning."

The mentality that the primary will be a jungle leading to a runoff was pervasive. This was a government official: "I doubt many will drop out. No downside for these candidates as filing is cheap."

Most respondents don't expect any of the major candidates to drop out, although several of the lesser-known hopefuls likely will.

4. Which candidate has the best potential to beat Horn? 

Illustrative of the early state of the race, no consensus was reached on this question.

One of the 5th District insiders sees Bice with the inside track: "There is so much time on the clock. I would like to give Hill time to see some more from the campaign. Today I would say Senator Bice is the best match up against the incumbent. They are around the same age but Bice has more actual legislative experience and authored popular legislation not to mention SQ 792 which passed with 66% statewide. While the incumbent is single, Bice has two daughters - one college age and the other in high school. Married with a family is a contrast in backgrounds. Barresi, again, has a base, but I do question how many Republicans she would lose over her history with education. I don’t believe any other [statewide] incumbent has come in 3rd in a primary for re-election. I think Neese and Hill have to introduce themselves and carve out bases, while the other two have a large head start on."

An OKC metro activist had this thought: "I think Neese has the best chance to defeat Horn, because Bice would divide the Republican base. Neese has no voting record and I think she is more conservative."

One of the younger panelists had another opinion: "David Hill if he starts actually coalition building . Right now I haven’t seen it."

A Tulsa member feels optimistic about the odds to flip the 5th: "I think whoever the Republican nominee is, can absolutely win. And not just because it's a traditional Republican seat, but because Horn is underwhelming, and she's trying to appease both conservative and liberal democrats in her district. That doesn't work long-term. Money also matters here. The Republican nominee will have to raise significant dollars. If they don't, I think it's tough."

One of the members involved in government felt that, of all the candidates, Neese has the best chance to defeat Kendra Horn.

5. Do you anticipate anyone else of import joining the race?

A media member thinks the field is mostly set: "I don’t see another significant candidate jumping in. Mick Cornett has told many people he has no interest and its getting late if you already have 4 candidates that will be well funded. This race is headed to a run off and it will be interesting to who runs the best race."

Several others dismissed the Cornett rumor, or felt that nobody of substance would join the race from this point out.

That's all for now. On Tuesday, I'll be publishing a briefing on the top four candidates penned by one of the Insiders panelists. Visit back for some special insights on the 5th District race!