Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Poll: Lamb and Stitt at 19%, Cornett 17%, Richardson 12%

Magellan Strategies released a brand new poll today on the gubernatorial race, showing the biggest shake-up yet:

Oklahoma 2018 Governor Republican Primary Election Survey Release

Today Magellan Strategies released the findings of an automated voice recorded survey of 644 likely Republican primary voters in Oklahoma. The interviews were conducted on April 18th, 19th and 22nd, 2018. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.86% at the 95 percent confidence interval. The results were weighted to reflect the voter turnout demographics of past Republican primary elections in Oklahoma.

Survey Findings

Our first survey looking at the Republican primary election for Oklahoma Governor finds a three-way tie. Among all respondents, 19% support Lt. Governor Todd Lamb, 19% support businessman Kevin Stitt and 17% support former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett. Among the second tier of candidates, U.S. Attorney Gary Richardson has 12% support, former State Representative Dan Fisher has 5% support, State Auditor and Inspector Gary Jones has 5% support. Twenty-three percent of respondents are undecided.

In reviewing the ballot test by voter subgroup, we can see each candidate’s current strength and opportunities to build support. Among the all-important senior voter subgroup, (which constitutes 45% of likely voter turnout) we find Mick Cornett and Kevin Stitt in a tight battle with Todd Lamb close behind and 24% undecided. Among self-identified Trump Republicans and Evangelical Republicans, Kevin Stitt leads his opponents by 7 points and 5 points respectively. However, among self-identified traditional Republicans Mick Cornett leads Todd Lamb by 5 points and Kevin Stitt by 23 points. Looking at the ballot test by Congressional District, it is no surprise to see former Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett’s support is coming mostly from CD-5 (which contains Oklahoma City). In contrast, both Todd Lamb and Kevin Stitt have broader geographic support across the state.

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Oklahoma Governor Republican Primary Candidate Image Ratings

Among the three front-runners, Todd Lamb is the most well-known candidate at this time with 94% of respondents having heard of him and 60% having an opinion of him. The Lt. Governor also has a net-positive image rating with 35% of respondents having a favorable opinion of him and 25% having an unfavorable opinion. About 80% of Republican primary voters have heard of Kevin Stitt and Mick Cornett. Sixty-two percent of respondents have an opinion of Mick Cornett and 47% have an opinion of Kevin Stitt. Kevin Stitt’s image rating (28% favorable/19% unfavorable) is slightly more positive than Mick Cornett’s (33% favorable/29% unfavorable).

For more from the Magellan Strategies poll, including approval ratings and survey questions on teacher pay, go to this link.


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