Monday, November 02, 2020

MAPS: Historic surge shoves GOP into majority in 13 counties and statewide

 The Oklahoma State Election Board released statistics showing that the Oklahoma Republican Party now has an outright majority of registered voters for the first time in Oklahoma history. I put that data into some maps to illustrate the simply massive sea change experienced in much of Oklahoma just this year.

Since January of this year, the GOP has taken the lead in the following 13 counties:

  • Adair County (down by -7.2% to up by 4.18%)
  • Bryan County (down by -2.75% to up by 8.58%)
  • Craig County (down by -7.7% to up by 4.41%)
  • Jefferson County (down by -5.34% to up by 6.15%)
  • Kiowa County (down by -1.46% to up by 10.18%)
  • LeFlore County (down by -10.18% to up by 8.95%)
  • Marshall County (down by -0.13% to up by 14.61%)
  • Ottawa County (down by -1.8% to up by 7.8%)
  • Pittsburg County (down by -14.44% to up by 0.72%)
  • Pontotoc County (down by -1.55% to up by 5.6%)
  • Seminole County (down by -5.21% to up by 3.92%)
  • Sequoyah County (down by -10.45% to up by 3.85%)
  • Tillman County (down by -2.58% to up by 8.58%)
Coal County is the only county where Democrats have a registration lead over 20% (they lead by 37.04% there). The only other counties where they have dougle-digits leads are Cherokee (by 10.56%), Latimer (by 14.88%), McIntosh (by 12.52%), and Pushmataha (by 13.14%). This is simply astounding.

Republican majority: 40 counties (35 in January 2020)
Republican plurality: 18 counties (10 in January 2020)
Democratic plurality: 15 counties (18 in January 2020)
Democratic majority: 4 counties (14 in January 2020)

Here are the counties that are likely to flip leads next:

  • Okfuskee County (GOP trails by 0.1%)
  • Okmulgee County (GOP trails by 0.22%)
  • McCurtain County (GOP trails by 0.67%)
  • Love County (GOP trails by 0.73%)
  • Caddo County (GOP trails by 1.18%)
  • Johnston County (GOP trails by 1.75%)
  • Murray County (GOP trails by 3.01%)
  • Greer County (GOP trails by 3.67%)
  • Haskell County (GOP trails by 4.87%)
  • Muskogee County (GOP trails by 5.55%)
  • Choctaw County (GOP trails by 5.87%)
  • Atoka County (GOP trails by 5.92%)
  • Hughes County (GOP trails by 7.4%)



Democrats gained a slight amount of ground in Oklahoma (+0.82%) and Tulsa (+0.51%) counties, while losing massive amounts in most of the rest of the state.

Here are the top changers:
  • McCurtain County (+24.44% GOP swing)
  • Roger Mills County  (+20.59% GOP swing)
  • Pushmataha County (+19.27% GOP swing)
  • LeFlore County (+19.12% GOP swing)
  • Haskell County (+18.84% GOP swing)
  • Choctaw County (+18.41% GOP swing)
  • Latimer County (+17.55% GOP swing)
  • Pittsburg County (+15.16% GOP swing)
  • Marshall County (+14.74% GOP swing)
  • Greer County (+14.71% GOP swing)
  • Sequoyah County (+14.3% GOP swing) 
  • Hughes County (+13.56% GOP swing)
  • Johnston County (+13.43% GOP swing)
  • Atoka County (+13.32% GOP swing)
  • Cotton County (+13.25% GOP swing)
  • Craig County (+12.11% GOP swing)
  • Murray County (+11.94% GOP swing)
  • Kiowa County (+11.64% GOP swing)
  • Jefferson County (+11.48% GOP swing)
  • Harmon County (+11.42% GOP swing)
  • Adair County (+11.38% GOP swing)
  • Bryan County (+11.33% GOP swing)
  • Tillman County (+11.16% GOP swing)
  • Love County (+11.06% GOP swing)
  • Beckham County (+10.32% GOP swing)
  • McIntosh County (+10.07% GOP swing)
  • Coal County (+10.03% GOP swing)
Muskogee County had a swing of 8.7% toward the GOP. The smallest GOP swings (under 5%) came in the OKC and Tulsa metros and the northwestern part of the state.

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