Friday, January 24, 2020

Map: Majority/Plurality Party by County

In this update to my Voter Registration Maps series, we're looking at majority/plurality party by county.

Republican majority: 35 counties (31 in 2019)
Republican plurality: 10 counties (12 in 2019)
Democratic plurality: 18 counties (12 in 2019)
Democratic majority: 14 counties (22 in 2019)

There are multiple majority-Democratic counties that are in the low-50% range, and many of them will likely slip down into plurality status next year. The following eight counties are most likely to go from blue to red within the next twelve months: Marshall (0.13% Dem lead), Kiowa (1.46% Dem lead), Pontotoc (1.55% Dem lead), Ottawa (1.8% Dem lead), Tillman (2.58% Dem lead), Bryan (2.75% Dem lead), Seminole (5.21% Dem lead), and Jefferson (5.34% Dem lead).

For comparison, here's the map from last year. Comanche and Cotton counties flipped from Democratic pluralities last year to Republican pluralities this year. The following counties slipped from outright Democratic majorities to simple pluralities: Adair, Craig, LeFlore, Love, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Pittsburg, and Sequoyah.