Hofmeister's Long Con: running for Gov as the Dem she's always been

Back in 2014, first-term State Superintendent Janet Barresi was very unpopular. In the Republican primary, she came in third out of three candidates, something that is quite shocking for an incumbent. The victor that primary, and later on in the general election, was Joy Hofmeister.

Hofmeister ran on a pretty standard "conservative Republican" platform. She took advantage of discontent with Janet Barresi, particularly as it dealt with controversy over Common Core and other Obama-era education pushes. 

Take, for example, this screenshot from her campaign website before the 2014 primary.

However, as time has elapsed since her first election, Hofmeister has increasingly revealed that she was not what she tried to pass herself off as in 2014. She fully supported the leftist education unions in their push for higher taxes, and the Department of Education under her leadership has advocated for social policies and curriculum that would absolutely shock many Oklahoma parents if they only knew.

Now, Hofmeister's long con is fully revealed. She is switching parties to run for Governor as a Democrat.

But never fear, she claims that "While I'm changing my party affiliation, I am not changing my values or who I am."

Oh really? That actually reveals more about her character than she intends to.

You see, either she's lying now, or she was lying back in 2014. I believe that her actions since 2014 indicate the latter to be true. 

Election Results Maps: Democrat Senate, Superintendent runoffs

Another statewide election day has passed, and another set of my Election Results Maps has been produced. Since the Republicans had no statewide races go to a runoff, these maps are of the two Democrat races. As always, the colors have more to do with the candidate's dominant sign/logo color than with ideology.

First up, the Senate runoff between uber-liberal state senator Connie Johnson and sometimes-successful perennial candidate Jim Rogers.

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As with the primary, Johnson basically only won because she rolled up big margins in the OKC and Tulsa metros. Otherwise, Rogers performed very well in the rural areas. Johnson did make more inroads than in the primary, as evidenced when you compare this map to the primary election map.

Contrary to what ODP Chairman Wallace Collins recently told the press, however, James Lankford won't have any problem trouncing Johnson.

Next, the State Superintendent race.

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Cox obliterated Deskin in this runoff. I had to add an additional color to add intensity to this particular map. In Adair County, Cox took 90.3% of the vote -- his highest county, and one of the highest percentages I've seen in my map-making "career". For comparison, here is the primary election map. Deskin led in 17 counties in the primary, but only won three in the runoff.

This race will hold the Democrats' best chance of victory in November. Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee, may have her hands full with John Cox.

NYT/CBS Poll: Fallin up 9%, Lankford and Inhofe lead by 20%+

A new CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll finds Oklahoma's top Republican candidates all leading their Democratic opponents by substantial margins, particularly in the Senate races. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R) holds a 24-point lead over Matt Silverstein (D), while James Lankford (R) leads Democratic runoff candidates Connie Johnson (D) and Jim Rogers (D) by 23% and 27%, respectively.

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In the gubernatorial race, Governor Mary Fallin (R) is leading Joe Dorman (D) 49%-40% (leaners included). The crosstabs for this race are particularly interesting -- I hope to go into them in more detail in another post soon.

View the full article and crosstabs for this national poll here.

Oklahoma Democrat Senate Primary Map

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Just for fun, I threw together this map of the Democrat's primary, in which State Sen. Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers advanced to the runoff. The winner of that August 26th contest will be the Democratic nominee facing James Lankford in the general election.

Johnson received 71,462 votes to Rogers' 57,598 and Hayes' 33,943. Johnson's lead (13,864) came almost entirely from Oklahoma County (13,389 lead over Rogers).

The Oklahoma Democratic Party is in pretty sad shape when a sitting state senator can barely edge out a perennial candidate who does little-to-no campaigning.

Speaking of the ODP's "last best hope", the Oklahoman recently had a good article on Jim Rogers, which you can read here.

Obama denied unanimous renomination by Oklahoma Democrats

Randall Terry 

The Obama re-election train was on track to snag every delegate in the Democrat primary, thus meaning a unanimous renomination. However, Oklahoma Democrats derailed that scenario, by voting in large enough numbers to give pro-life activist Randall Terry and Oklahoma native Jim Rogers delegates.

I ran some quick figures and looked into the Oklahoma Democrat Party's delegate allocation rules, and as best as I can figure, Obama will get 32 delegates, Terry will have 10, and Rogers will take 3. Of course, until the ODP officially announces the total, that's just an educated guess, but it should be in the ballpark.

Terry broke the 15% boundary statewide, and should get about 5 delegates statewide, to Obama's 11. Obama took all of the delegates in the 1st and 5th Congressional Districts (6 each), and 3 from each of the other congressional districts (for a total of 21 from congressional districts).

Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers will get one delegate each from the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th congressional districts, while Randall Terry will take 2, 1, and 2 delegates, respectively. Rogers is a perennial candidate, and was the 2010 Democrat nominee for U.S. Senate.

Including the Super Tuesday elections, Barack Obama has received 83.2% of all votes cast in the Democratic primaries and caucuses. The four other Democrats on the ballot in Oklahoma now become the top four vote-getters after Obama (Terry is 3rd, Rogers is 5th, Richardson is 6th, and Ely is 7th; "Uncommitted" is 2nd and "No Preference" is 4th).

Ironically, Republican candidate Ron Paul (0.34%) is the 8th highest candidate in the Democrat primary, and fellow GOP hopeful Mitt Romney (0.27%) is 9th. You can view a complete list of the Democrat primary vote-getters here.

Super Tuesday: Santorum Wins Oklahoma

With 1950 of 1961 precincts reporting, Rick Santorum has won the Oklahoma Republican presidential primary, holding off Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a tighter-than-expected finish. Santorum received 33.8% statewide, with Romney getting 28%, Gingrich taking 27.5%, and Ron Paul finishing with 9.6%.

Results by congressional district:

1st Congressional District

• Santorum - 33.4%
• Gingrich - 29.75%
• Romney - 27.65%
• Paul - 8.3%

2nd Congressional District

• Santorum - 37.6%
• Gingrich - 30.2%
• Romney - 22.2%
• Paul - 8.9%

3rd Congressional District

• Santorum - 34%
• Gingrich - 29%
• Romney - 25.8%
• Paul - 9.8%

4th Congressional District

• Santorum - 34.85%
• Romney - 28.3%
• Gingrich - 24.8%
• Paul - 11%

5th Congressional District

• Romney - 33.9%
• Santorum - 30.8%
• Gingrich - 23.9%
• Paul - 10.5%

The final delegate count looks like it will be Santorum with 14, Romney with 13, and Gingrich with 13. Of Oklahoma's 77 counties, 2 went to Romney, 11 to Gingrich, and the remaining 64 were won by Santorum.

It appears that on the Democrat side, Randall Terry (18% statewide) and Jim Rogers (13.8% statewide) will receive delegates, in addition to Barack Obama (57.1% statewide). Terry won 12 counties, Rogers won 3, and Obama took the other 62. Obama placed third in five counties. Terry and Rogers held Obama to just 42% in the 2nd Congressional District, and 47% in the 3rd Congressional District.

Outside of Oklahoma, Romney looks to have won Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, Idaho, and Ohio (in a squeaker). Gingrich won Georgia. Santorum has won Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota. Alaska's caucus results probably won't be available until sometime Wednesday.

General Election Results - U.S. Senate

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

Coburn Launches TV Ads

U.S. Senator Dr. Tom Coburn has launched his re-election campaign television advertising, starting with these two ads.
 

Future Generations

Downsizing the Federal Government

Gun Owners of America rates Oklahoma candidates

Gun Owners of America, the other national pro-gun lobby, has issued their candidate ratings for the state of Oklahoma.

Sen. Tom Coburn received an A+, meaning he's a "Pro-Gun Leader" who "introduces pro-gun legislation". His opponent, Jim Rogers, did not answer the questionnaire.

Reps. John Sullivan (OK-1) and Tom Cole (OK-4) got an A - meaning "philosophically sound" and a "Pro-Gun Voter". Rep. Frank Lucas also received an A, while his Democrat opponent, Frankie Robbins, got a D- (Leans Anti-Gun: Usually against us).

Rep. Dan Boren got an A- (Pro-Gun Voter: philosophically sound), and his Republican challenger, Charles Thompson, got an A.

Tom Coburn is the only candidate who has been endorsed by GOA so far this cycle in Oklahoma.

Rasmussen: Coburn, Fallin with big leads

Rasmussen has released two polls in recent days covering Oklahoma's gubernatorial and senatorial contests. Perhaps the Senate race (at least) does not qualify as a "contest"...

Senate: Coburn (R) vs. Rogers (D) vs. Wallace (I) vs. Dwyer (I)

Rasmussen Reports 2010 Oklahoma Senate Poll (link)

Tom Coburn (R) - 68% [67%]
Jim Rogers (D) - 26% [24%]
Some Other Candidate - 2% [3%]
Undecided - 4% [5%]

Poll of  500 likely voters, June 30th, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%  -  leaders in bold. [Poll in brackets is of 500 likely voters, August 26th, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%].

Governor: Fallin (R) vs. Askins (D)

Rasmussen Reports 2010 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Poll (link)

Mary Fallin (R) - 60% [52%]
Jari Askins (D) - 34% [37%]
Some Other Candidate - 1% [4%]
Undecided - 5% [7%]

Poll of  500 likely voters, September 23rd, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%  -  leaders in bold. [Poll in brackets is of 500 likely voters, August 26th, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%].

I'm not entirely sure why Rasmussen asked "some other candidate", given the fact that only Fallin and Askins will be on the ballot - there will be no other candidates...

Most stunning in the Gubernatorial numbers is Fallin's favorability rating, when compared to Askins. 70% of those polled have a favorable opinion of Mary Fallin, and only 26% have an unfavorable view (making for a +44% favorable percentage). Askins has 51% favorable, and 41% unfavorable (making for a +10% favorable percentage).

"Offbeat" GOP Candidates? Let's Look at the Democrat Party, Too

Politico ran a story Thursday entitled Will its offbeat candidates hurt the GOP?. The article focused on candidates like Rand Paul (KY-Sen), Sharon Angle (NV-Sen), Linda McMahon (CT-Sen), and a few others.

I have a few candidates I'd like to point out to Politico that are Democrats, but first, a few words from Rush Limbaugh, who I thought had a great response to this on his radio show:

The Politico could run a list of the offbeat legislation the Democrats introduced every day in Congress like Rangel's constant efforts to reintroduce the draft.  Maxine Waters today blamed Bush for her ethics problems.  We got Fortney "Pete" Stark.  These are normal people, all of these wondrous Democrats.  But of course The Politico has to go out and find offbeats in the Republican Party.  This Burns guy gets one thing right.  "It’s almost impossible to imagine a group of nominees like this emerging in any other election cycle, and the willingness of primary voters to embrace such downright strange candidates underscores just how violently the 2010 electorate has turned against political institutions and the would-be officeholders who belong to them." He's exactly right.  We've gotten so odd that somebody who wants to reform Social Security is a political offbeat.  Somebody who wants to shore up Medicare and fix it a political offbeat.  Somebody who wants to fix the Department of Education is considered an offbeat candidate.  Somebody who wants to bring the budget in line is an offbeat, oddball, weirdo candidate.  Somebody who wants to end the crime and the fraud and the waste in government is an offbeat candidate.

And now for a few "offbeat" Democrat candidates, starting down in Florida.

Florida Democrats have two main candidates for U.S. Senate (Marco Rubio is the GOP candidate, and governor Charlie Crist is running as an Independent). Jeff Greene is a billionaire, who made most of his money in a questionable real estate venture in California. But, that's not his only problem.

In 2005, his 145-foot yacht dropped anchor right smack dab in the middle of Belize's protected barrier reef (designated by the UN as a "World Heritage Site"). Greene was slapped with a $1.87 million fine by the Belize government... but he's not been back to pay it, and in fact denies that the event ever occurred.

Let's move to Texas.

Kesha Rogers is the Democrat nominee for Congressional District 22. Rogers is best known for being a LaRouche candidate.

Kesha, like all LaRouchers, believes that President Obama is a puppet for the British Empire and their imperialist bankers. Mhmm.

Moving on...

No list of "offbeat" candidates would be complete without the infamous Alvin Greene. Greene is one of the most bizarre candidates who actually won a primary in this election cycle.

The candidate has had disastrous, blooper-reel interviews with the media, and to top off all his other mishaps, he was indicted on Friday on two charges - a misdemeanor for communicating obscene materials to a person without consent, and a felony for showing pornography to a teenage student in a South Carolina college computer lab.

And yes, this guy won the Democrat primary, over the candidacy of a longtime Democrat politician.

And last, but not least, Oklahoma's own Democrat U.S. Senate nominee - Jim Rogers.

Rogers is a perennial candidate who never campaigns. He wears the same old red campaign sweatshirt, with "Jim Rogers for U.S. Senate 20__" ironed on the back. I saw the man when he filed for U.S. Senate in 2008, and he had taped "08" to update the shirt from his previous run for office.


I didn't even go into all the high-ranking Democrat incumbents who are facing ethics investigations, either. Just a closing, interesting note - these four candidates that I highlighted only have two last names: Rogers and Greene.

Rasmussen Governor/Senate Polls

Rasmussen conducted two Oklahoma polls recently; one for the Governor's race, and one for the Senate race.

Senate race poll:

Rasmussen Reports 2010 Oklahoma Senate Poll (link)

Tom Coburn (R) - 62%
Mark Myles (D) - 27%
Some Other Candidate - 4%
Undecided - 6%

Tom Coburn (R) - 65%
Jim Rogers (D) - 26%
Some Other Candidate - 3%
Undecided - 7%

Poll of  500 likely voters, June 30th, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%  -  leaders in bold

Governor's race poll:

Rasmussen Reports 2010 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Poll (link)

Mary Fallin (R) - 55%
Jari Askins (D) - 32%
Some Other Candidate - 7%
Undecided - 7%

Mary Fallin (R) - 48%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 39%
Some Other Candidate - 3%
Undecided - 10%

Randy Brogdon (R) - 47%
Jari Askins (D) - 38%
Some Other Candidate - 6%
Undecided - 9%

Randy Brogdon (R) - 35%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 46%
Some Other Candidate - 5%
Undecided - 14%

Robert Hubbard (R) - 43%
Jari Askins (D) - 38%
Some Other Candidate - 8%
Undecided - 11%

Robert Hubbard (R) - 31%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 44%
Some Other Candidate - 8%
Undecided - 18%

Roger Jackson (R) - 42%
Jari Askins (D) - 40%
Some Other Candidate - 8%
Undecided - 11%

Roger Jackson (R) - 29%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 45%
Some Other Candidate - 8%
Undecided - 18%

Poll of  500 likely voters, June 30th, 2010, with a MoE of +/- 4.5%  -  leaders in bold

In addition to the numbers from the races, Rasmussen released some figures from other questions.

68% of those polled favor repeal of the new national health care plan (higher than the national figure), while 28% oppose repeal. 35% consider themselves a member of the Tea Party movement (also higher than the national figure), while 45% do not, and 20% aren't sure. 64% support passing similar legislation to Arizona's illegal immigration law here in Oklahoma, and 76% support requiring police to check the immigration status of anyone pulled over for a traffic or other violation if they suspect the individual is an illegal immigrant.

Obviously, Oklahoma is a conservative state, even though a plurality of voters are registered Democrat.

Andrew Rice's Poor Showing

For Rice, Not A Pretty Picture

Mike McCarville's map tells it all; Andrew Rice performed very badly in his primary. Jim Rogers did not spend a dime, and the extent of his campaigning was waving signs within a mile of his house, yet he won 18 counties.

I was at the Capitol on filing day, and was there when Jim Rogers filed. Perennial candidate that he is, he was wearing a faded red sweatshirt that read 'Jim Rogers for U.S. Senate 2008'. The best part? The '08' was actually two pieces of paper taped over an '04'!

Jim Inhofe will slaughter Andrew Rice on election day. So much for a 'sleeper race'...