OK Senate Dems try to explain GOP interest in Josh Brecheen/SD6 - bad poll numbers in SD42

The Oklahoma State Senate Democrats PAC issued the following press release today, after attention has been drawn to Senate District 6 and GOP candidate Josh Brecheen. Brecheen is running a stiff challenge to eight-year incumbent Jay Paul Gumm (D-Durant).

The Democrats reasoning for the GOP's new interest in Brecheen? Bad poll numbers in another district. Read below:

OK Senate Democrats PAC: What’s Sending Oklahoma Republicans on a Desperate “Fishing Expedition” in Southeast Oklahoma? Dismal Poll Numbers in Senate District 42

Oklahoma City – Recent polling out of Senate District 42 shows Sen. Cliff Aldridge’s re-election hopes are fading fast – which might explain why State Senate Republicans are suddenly interested in playing in Southeast Oklahoma.

“When Oklahoma State Senate Republican leadership and campaign operatives suddenly announced their interest in Josh Brecheen and Southeast Oklahoma, the question that immediately came to mind was ‘why’,” said Jody Murphy, Executive Director of the Oklahoma State Senate Democrat PAC.  “And by the looks of things, the only answer we can come up with is ‘desperation.’”

Poll numbers released today by the Oklahoma State Senate Democrat PAC from a late-May poll of likely November voters in Senate District 42 conducted by Myers Research Strategic Services indicate that two-term incumbent Sen. Cliff Aldridge’s re-election numbers are extremely weak:

• Just 27% of voters polled would choose to re-elect Sen. Aldridge, while 33% would choose someone new;
• Sen. Aldridge’s re-elect is even weak among voters in his base of registered Republicans – just  45% of registered Republicans say he deserves to be re-elected, while 19% say they would choose someone new;
• For a two-term incumbent, Sen. Aldridge’s name recognition is dismal, with just 45% of likely voters able to identify him by name;
• Finally, and most shockingly, just 26% of voters rated Aldridge favorably, while 12% gave him unfavorable personal reviews.

With poll numbers clearly painting Sen. Aldridge as vulnerable, State Senate Republicans and their campaign operatives may be more disappointed with Sen. Cliff Aldridge than they are enamored with Josh Brecheen and his long-shot campaign.

“If I was working with an incumbent with poll numbers as dismal as Sen. Aldridge’s, I might be interested in going on a desperate fishing expedition in Southeast Oklahoma too,” said Sen. Andrew Rice, incoming Senate Democratic leader and Chairman of the Oklahoma State Senate Democrats PAC.

This press release smacks of fear on the part of the Democrats - fear of losing SD6 to Josh Brecheen.

Brecheen held a fundraiser last night in Durant with U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn. I was able to attend the event, and let me tell you, the Democrats have plenty to fear. Over 250 people were at a Republican fundraiser in Little Dixie, and probably 90% in attendance were local residents.

photos courtesy of Karen Kraakavik- www.reigninggracephotography.com

Sources close to the campaign state that, while they were still counting the funds raised, Brecheen has more than closed the fundraising gap with Gumm just from the money raised at the one event last night. According to the last ethics reports, which covered up until August 9th, Gumm had $73,297.09 in cash on hand, and Brecheen had $23,139.77.

Yes, if I were the Democrats and Jay Paul Gumm, I'd be going on a "desperate fishing expedition to Southeast Oklahoma"...

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.2 (61.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 33.0 (34.8)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

This will likely be John McCain's best state.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 55.3 (51.3)
  
• Rice (D) - 38.9 (41.0)
• Wallace (I) - 2.9 (3.3)
  
• Undecided - 3.0 (4.4)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Andrew Rice's run looks like it will be a big failure, as expected. Jim Inhofe is going to have a safe return to the Senate.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 35.3 (34.7)
  
• Roth (D) - 49.8 (46.7)
  
• Undecided -14.9 (18.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth is practically at 50%. Dana Murphy will need a huge push to win this race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.7 (45.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 33.2 (31.3)
  
• Undecided - 21.1 (22.7)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud is a safe bet for re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.3% (55.3%)
• Republican - 37.7% (37.7%)
• Independent - 8.0% (7.0%)

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between October 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

John McCain (R) - 63% (59%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (35%)
Other - 2% (3%)
Undecided - 1% (3%)

The 'Other' category is totally useless, as Oklahoma only has McCain and Obama on the ballot. McCain, needless to say, is headed to a massive victory in Oklahoma.

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 56% (51%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 36% (39%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 6% (7%)
Undecided - 2% (4%)

Jim Inhofe looks sets for a big re-election come Tuesday.

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 46% (50%)
Jim Roth (D) - 49% (43%)
Undecided - 5% (7%)

Jim Roth has taken a slight lead, perhaps due to his attack ads that have been running. Dana Murphy still has time to come back; this will be a close race.

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jeff Cloud (R) - 55% (53%)
Charles Gray (D) - 39% (37%)
Undecided - 6% (10%)

Jeff Cloud appears set to be re-elected by a large margin.

Andrew Rice Refusing to Listen to Gold Star Mom

Andrew Rice has listed on his website the name of a Gold Star Mother's son against her wishes, and has refused to take it off.

Details at Green Country Values.

Muskogee Politico's Picks, Intro

Since there is less than one week until the election, it's time to unveil the Muskogee Politico's Picks. I'll list the races here, and then post my picks on separate posts.

Races in Muskogee County:
Incumbents are italicized.

• State House District 13 - Debbie Lienhart (R, Haskell) vs. Jerry McPeak (D, Warner)
  
• State House District 14 - George Faught (R, Muskogee) vs. Eugene Blankenship (D, Muskogee)
• Muskogee County Sheriff - Roger Lee (R, Muskogee) vs. Charles Pearson (D, Muskogee)
  
• Muskogee County Proposition 1
• Muskogee County Proposition 2
  

State-wide Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Corporation Commission, Short Term - Dana Murphy (R, Edmond) vs. Jim Roth (D, OKC)
• Corporation Commission, Full Term - Jeff Cloud (R, OKC) vs. Charles Gray (D, OKC)
• State Question No. 735
• State Question No. 741
  
• State Question No. 742
• State Question No. 743

Judicial Retention Races

• Oklahoma Supreme Court - John Reif
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Tom Colbert
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Joseph Watt
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Charles Johnson
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Gary Lumpkin
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jerry Goodman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jane Wiseman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Keith Rapp
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - John Fischer
  

Federal Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Congressional District 2 - Raymond Wickson (R, Okmulgee) vs. Dan Boren (D, Muskogee)
• U.S. Senate - Jim Inhofe (R, Tulsa) vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice (D, OKC)
  
• President - Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AZ/AK) vs. Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D, IL/DE)

Now, no guarantee that I'll post these all in one day... there's more on the ballot than I realized!

Muskogee Phoenix Endorses Dana Murphy

The Muskogee Phoenix newspaper has endorsed Republicans Dana Murphy and Jeff Cloud for the Corporation Commission seats.

Commission Choices

We encourage voters to return Jeff Cloud to a second term on the state Corporation Commission.

We also encourage a vote for Dana Murphy, replacing the man who currently holds a seat on the commission.

Cloud has done a commendable job in his first term. There is no reason to replace him.

Cloud’s opponent, Charles Gray, has taken an admirable stance, stating that unlike Cloud, he would not take campaign donations from energy companies. State law does not prohibit those donations, though we think it should.

Still, Cloud, as others have pointed out, has shown a good balance between serving the interests of consumers and the interests of the companies the commission regulates.

Murphy has a long background in energy, and she served as an administrative law judge for the commission. She has all the qualifications for the job.

Her opponent, Jim Roth, has been on the board for two years after having been appointed by Gov. Brad Henry and serving as a two-term Oklahoma County commissioner.

Given the current energy crisis and the need for development of alternative energy sources, we believe it’s wise to elect someone with a strong energy background and someone who has dealt with energy and consumer issues for years.

The Muskogee Politico applauds this endorsement.

In this election, the Phoenix has endorsed Democrat Sen. Barack Obama for President, Democrat State Sen. Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate, Republican State Rep. George Faught for re-election, sort of endorsed Democrat State Rep. Jerry McPeak for re-election, and Democrat Sheriff Charles Pearson for re-election. They also endorsed the Muskogee County Questions Propositions 1 and 2, which deal with updating the 911 system. They endorsed voting 'no' on SQ 742, the 'Hunters Bill of Rights'.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 61.6 (63.7)
  
• Obama (D) - 34.8 (32.4)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (4.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

A steady race here. An eight point swing in the voter sample (see below), and still about the same.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 51.3 (52.9)
  
• Rice (D) - 41.0 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.3 (3.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.4 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, very little change here (even with the voter ID difference from last week).

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 34.7 (39.2)
  
• Roth (D) - 46.7 (39.8)
  
• Undecided -18.6 (21.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth released some hard hitting allegations this past week, and this is a direct result of it. So far, Dana Murphy has not responded in a public enough way to counteract the attack ads. However, if she doesn't start to make up some ground fast, this race might not go so well next Tuesday.

That said, read below about the Voted ID sample.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.9 (44.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.3 (29.9)
  
• Undecided - 22.7 (25.2)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud appears likely to cruise to re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 55.3% (52.0%)
• Republican - 37.7% (42.7%)
• Independent -7.0% (5.3%)

There was a 3% jump in the Democrat sample, a 5% drop in the Republican group, and a 2% rise for Independents. With such a drastic tumult in the voter ID, the results in this poll are a bit hard to stake too much in. Eight points would wipe out much of Jim Roth's new lead, so things might not be so bad for Dana Murphy.

Another interesting thing I noticed in the crosstabs was the Congressional District the persons polled lived in. Throughout the tracking polls, the 2nd CD has typically comprised about 2% more of the polled persons than the other districts. Could this have an impact? Possibly.

Muskogee Phoenix Endorses Rep. George Faught

The Muskogee Phoenix newspaper has endorsed State Rep. George Faught (R, Muskogee) for State House. House District 14, which Faught has represented since the 2006 election, covers eastern Muskogee and western Cherokee counties.

Return Faught

Rep. George Faught deserves to be re-elected to serve in the state House from District 14.

Faught has demonstrated desire to understand all sides of the issues he has faced and thoughtfulness in casting his votes the past two years whether you agree with all of those decisions or not.

Some of the issues the state faces right now regarding the budget, the economy, our infrastructure, health care, education and a multitude of other issues are very tough and complex with no easy solutions. The challenges call for legislators who can put special interests aside and make decisions with gravity and fairness.

Faught has demonstrated those qualities.

And Faught is a hard worker, a trait he obviously has gained in operating his small business.

So far, the Phoenix has also endorsed Barack Obama for President, and Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate, both liberal Democrats. They also endorsed the Muskogee County Questions Propositions 1 and 2, which deal with updating the 911 system. Prop 1 would increase the 911 fee for land-lines from 5% to 15% per month, and Prop 2 would institute a $0.50 fee per month for cell phones.

Two 'Progessives' in a Pod

Andrew Rice and his new "Progressive" (i.e. super liberal) buddy: Barack Obama.
(Apologies for the poor quality; I don't have Photoshop, and am not an expert in Paint...)

Obama Endorses Rice

Barack Obama has endorsed Democrat Andrew Rice in his race against Sen. Jim Inhofe. It came out in an email:

Dear Friend, You can change politics in this country at every level -- up and down the ballot. Our records show that you live in Oklahoma. There's a candidate in Oklahoma who's working to bring the change this country needs, and that candidate is Andrew Rice. Get involved and help bring change now. Andrew Rice for Senate: Visit the website. Don't wait until Election Day to support Rice. Get involved today to make sure Oklahoma has a strong senator to take our country in a new direction. Thanks, Obama for America P.S. -- To get involved with Obama for America in your community, visit your state page: http://OK.barackobama.com.

(h/t to McCarville)

If Rice was smart, this was not a good idea. Getting endorsed by a candidate who is under-performing you by 7-10 points? Not good...

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Seven

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.7 (63.0)
  
• Obama (D) - 32.4 (31.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.0 (5.1)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The undecideds are finally dropping off, as we get into the final days of this election.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.9 (53.1)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.9 (2.0)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (5.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

We appear to have reached equilibrium in this race. The numbers are virtually unchanged over the past three weeks.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 39.2 (40.0)
  
• Roth (D) - 39.8 (35.1)
  
• Undecided -21.0 (24.9)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The two candidates are now in a virtual tie, whereas before Dana Murphy held a slim lead. I believe this is directly attributable to Roth's growing presence in television advertising. This race will by far be the closest of the major statewide elections on November 4th. Jim Roth has a huge cash advantage over Murphy (as he is 'Bought and Paid For', as I have said time and again.), however, this appears to be a good year for Republicans in the state of Oklahoma, and I feel confident that Dana Murphy will pull this out.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 44.9 (37.4)
  
• Gray (D) - 29.9 (30.2)
  
• Undecided - 25.2 (32.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, due to increased TV advertising, Jeff Cloud breaks open an expected lead over his opponent. A big part of the movement? I bet it's due to this ad of his.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 52.0% (53.5%)
• Republican - 42.7% (41.0%)
• Independent -5.3% (5.6%)

Things are shaping up to be a great November 4th for the Oklahoma Republican Party. It may be a little tense for a while at the Murphy watch party, but I believe that all Republican state-wide candidates will come out on top, and the State Senate will switch control to the Republicans for the first time in state history.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Six

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.0 (65.5)
  
• Obama (D) - 31.9 (29.1)
  
• Undecided - 5.1 (5.4)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

McCain leads by 31 points. The undecided column has hardly varied the past few weeks; the main action comes from 5-10% of the sample that swing back and forth.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 53.1 (52.5)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.7)
• Wallace (I) - 2.0 (2.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.7)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Senator Inhofe improved slightly since last week. The undecided percentage in this race is almost identical to the Presidential race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 40.0 (37.6)
  
• Roth (D) - 35.1 (33.1)
  
• Undecided -24.9 (29.1)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The closer we get to the election, the more the populace hears about this race. Murphy retains her narrow lead to this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 37.4 (36.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 30.2 (31.5)
  
• Undecided -32.4 (31.6)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Incumbent Jeff Cloud holds his tenuous lead over relative-unknown Charles Gray.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 53.5% (54.4%)
• Republican - 41.0% (40.3%)
• Independent -5.6% (5.2%)

The political landscape in Oklahoma is different than most areas of the nation. There are only a handful of states where you can find a sample like this that goes against their own party by such margins.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Five

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 65.5 (67.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 29.1 (26.5)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.9)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain still holds a 36-point lead over Obama; one of the largest leads McCain has in the nation.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.5 (56.0)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.7 (35.5)
• Wallace (I) - 2.2 (2.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.7 (5.8)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Inhofe leads by almost 13%. However, Rice has closed the gap considerably from earlier this year. Inhofe is still favored to win by a large percentage.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 37.6 (38.3)
  
• Roth (D) - 33.3 (29.1)
  
• Undecided -29.1 (32.6)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Roth made some gains this week; but the relative insignificance of this race makes it nearly impossible to predict at this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 36.9 (not previously polled)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.5 (not previously polled)
  
• Undecided -31.6 (not previously polled)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

TvPoll polled the other Corporation Commission race this week. The lack of attention on this race, as with the other Corporation Commission race, has contributed significantly to the very high number of undecideds.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.4% (48.7%)
• Republican - 40.3% (45.4%)
• Independent -5.2% (5.9%)

This could very well explain the discrepancy between the results from last week and this week.

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between September 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 3.8%):

John McCain (R) - 64% (65%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (32%)
Other - 1% (1%)
Undecided - 2% (2%)

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 53% (56%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 37% (34%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 7% (6%)
Undecided - 3% (4%)

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 50% (54%)
Jim Roth (D) - 41% (36%)
Undecided - 9% (10%)

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jeff Cloud (R) -47% (52%)
Charles Gray (D) - 44% (37%)
Undecided - 10% (11%)

McCain and Inhofe are cruising to victory. Dana Murphy continues to hold a slim lead over Jim Roth, leading among Republicans and Independents. The surprise poll was the Cloud-Gray race;
they appear locked in a very close race. The Murphy-Roth contest has overshadowed the Cloud-Gray one, perhaps contributing to the closeness of the results.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Four

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 67.6 (65.8)
  
• Obama - 26.5 (26.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.9 (8.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 56.0 (55.0)
  
• Rice - 35.5 (33.4)
• Wallace - 2.6 (1.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.8 (10.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Jim Inhofe continues to hold a 20-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 38.3 (45.0)
  
• Roth - 29.1 (32.6)
  
• Undecided - 32.6 (22.3)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

The Corporation Commission race remains extremely fluid, with Murphy falling 7% and Roth dropping 3%. The Undecided column rose by 10 points, the exact number Murphy and Roth fell by.

TvPoll had some interesting commentary on the past few weeks polling for this race:

"Little changed in poll numbers from week one to week two between Corporation Commissioner Candidates Dana Murphy (R) and Jim Roth (D). Both weeks showed a tight race with Murphy in the lead by about 15 points.

Week three, however, concluded with very different results. 24% were in favor of Murphy, 21% in favor of Roth and 55% were undecided in the race for Corporation Commissioner.

What changed? In week one and two, TvPoll.com asked respondents who they were likely to favor when it came time to vote by introducing each candidate along with their party affiliation. To test for party influences, TvPoll.com asked the same question in week three, only this time without differentiating the candidates by party. The difference is significant."

(emphasis mine)

This race will continue to be very fluid.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 50.1% (49.6%)
• Republican - 44.8% (44.5%)
• Independent -5.0% (5.9%)

TvPoll Tracking Polls

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 65.8 (68.8)
  
• Obama - 26.2 (27.4)
  
• Undecided - 8.0 (3.8)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 55.0 (55.7)
  
• Rice - 33.4 (30.6)
• Wallace - 1.6 (4.4)
  
• Undecided - 10.0 (9.3)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

This remains an Inhofe-dominated race.

TvPoll/KWTV Weekly Tracking Poll

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 68.8 (65.9)
  
• Obama - 27.4 (27.9)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (6.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain smashes Obama in yet another Oklahoma poll; this time with a 41-point lead. McCain nows lead Obama among Democrats by 4, and among Independents by 22.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 55.7 (57.2)
  
• Rice - 30.6 (29.2)
• Wallace - 4.4 (3.6)
  
• Undecided - 9.3 (10.0)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Most of the little movement in this race came from Independents, who flipped from Inhofe to Rice (from 50-20, to 25-55). Inhofe holds a very large lead, thwarting Democrat hopes to upset him in November.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 45.0 (44.7)
  
• Roth - 32.6 (36.1)
  
• Undecided - 22.3 (19.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Dana Murphy continues to hold a lead in the Corporation Commission race, extending it by nearly four points this week. The large percentage of undecideds is easily attributed to the lack of attention paid to this race so far, and the relative lack of knowledge of the Corporation Commission in general. Most of the movement in the numbers came from Democrats; Murphy gained 5%, and Roth lost 8%.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 49.6% (50.1%)
• Republican - 44.5% (43.4%)
• Independent -5.9% (6.5%)

McCain, Inhofe up big in Oklahoma

SurveyUSA poll conducted two polls for KFOR-TV, between September 5th and 7th.

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 56%
Andrew Rice (D) - 34%
Stephen Wallace (I) - 6%
Undecided - 4%

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 3.7%):

McCain (R) - 65%
Obama (D) - 32%
Other - 1%
Undecided - 2%

Notes: McCain and Inhofe performed better in the Eastern half of the state; Obama and Rice performed worse there.

Oklahoma U.S. Senate Poll
Tulsa World/KOTV
July 19-23, 750 likely voters
MoE +/- 3.66%

Jim Inhofe 52%
Andrew Rice 30%
Don't Know/Refused 18%



After Andrew Rice's Poor Showing, more grim news for the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.

Andrew Rice's Poor Showing

For Rice, Not A Pretty Picture

Mike McCarville's map tells it all; Andrew Rice performed very badly in his primary. Jim Rogers did not spend a dime, and the extent of his campaigning was waving signs within a mile of his house, yet he won 18 counties.

I was at the Capitol on filing day, and was there when Jim Rogers filed. Perennial candidate that he is, he was wearing a faded red sweatshirt that read 'Jim Rogers for U.S. Senate 2008'. The best part? The '08' was actually two pieces of paper taped over an '04'!

Jim Inhofe will slaughter Andrew Rice on election day. So much for a 'sleeper race'...