Jim Roth raising money for Dana Murphy's LtGov campaign

Republican Corporation Commissioner and Lieutenant Governor candidate Dana Murphy had a fundraiser yesterday evening with an interesting figure. The host? None other than Jim Roth, the Democrat Corporation Commissioner that Murphy defeated in 2008.

Roth is now a lawyer in the energy sector, and is a licensed lobbyist to the Governor, Legislature, and Corporation Commission. A former Corporation Commissioner who regulated (among other things) the energy sector now works for the energy sector lobbying a former colleague and his successor, and now has held a fundraiser for someone who regulates the industry he works in.

I have great misgivings about a regulator (Corporation Commissioner) soliciting donations from those they regulate (i.e. the energy sector, people that Roth represents, the OIPA, etc). At the beginning of January, Murphy was sitting on a campaign war-chest of almost $700,000, the bulk of which appears to have been raised during her tenure as Corporation Commission by donations from PACs affiliated with or individuals employed in industries that she regulates. It may not technically be pay-to-play, but it well-nigh borders on it.

Jim Roth had somewhat of a controversial past as a public official. He was the first openly-homosexual elected official in Oklahoma (Oklahoma County Commissioner), and was the recipient of campaign contributions by prominent out-of-state homosexual activists like Tim Gill. There were incidents where campaign donors received favorable treatment by Roth, from roads being paved to property owned by a large campaign donor during Roth's County Commission stint to voting against a power plant opposed by that same donor while Roth was a Corporation Commissioner.

Since the beginning of 2016, Roth has donated $6500 to Democratic candidates and $800 to Republicans (not including a maximum contribution of $2700 to Murphy).

Grassroots Republican activists who worked hard in 2008 to elect Murphy might be interested to find out that the self-proclaimed conservative is partnering with a progressive like Roth in her campaign for lieutenant governor.

Pinnell on Murphy donor solicitations: Swampy Status Quo Shakedown?

Swampy Status Quo Shakedown?  Commissioner Murphy Raising Campaign Funds from Entities She Regulates

Tulsa, OK – Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate, entrepreneur, and small business owner Matt Pinnell commented today on opponent Dana Murphy’s long expected effort to raise campaign money from oil and gas and other entities she regulates in her role as Corporation Commissioner.

A campaign solicitation dated February 27, 2018 was sent to members of the Oklahoma Independent Petroleum Association on the very first date she could solicit their funds.

17 O.S. §2A-48 stipulates that members of the Corporation Commission cannot accept campaign contributions from any “person who is subject to the regulations of the Corporation Commission, or has interests in any firm, corporation or business which is subject to regulation by the Corporation Commission,” until a period beginning 120 days prior to a primary election.

“This a perfect example of what President Trump meant when he said we needed to drain the swamp,” said Pinnell. “This is the status quo, politics as usual that I am fighting to end in Oklahoma City.”

In Murphy’s 2008 race against incumbent Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth, Murphy criticized Roth for raising campaign funds from individuals who had cases in front the Corporation Commission. Murphy called then Commissioner Roth, " a lapdog for special interest groups," and said that as "a career bureaucrat, he has relied on his powerful, special interest friends." Now, Murphy is engaged in the same exact practice she campaigned against. In fact, Jim Roth, who is a registered lobbyist in front of the Corporation Commission, is hosting a campaign event for Commissioner Murphy today.

“This sends a chilling message to the oil and gas industry from a politician who regulates their industry,” continued Pinnell. “It’s simply not right that Commissioner Murphy can run for higher office while using her position on the Corporation Commission to raise money from those she regulates.”

"Commissioner Murphy correctly used to believe this practice was wrong, and said so when she ran in 2008. Now that she’s an elected official looking to climb the political ladder, she’s changed her tune. That’s the definition of hypocrisy and the status quo that Oklahoma voters soundly rejected at the ballot box in 2016,” concluded Pinnell.

J.C. Watts supporting Brooks Mitchell

The race for Corporation Commissioner is always a quiet affair (the exception being Dana Murphy vs. Jim Roth in 2008), but this year's race between incumbent Bob Anthony and Brooks Mitchell has been even more of a sleeper.

Until now.

I just received a robocall from the Mitchell campaign, with former Corporation Commissioner and Congressman J.C. Watts endorsing Mitchell, and voicing the call. I don't have a transcript, and have not found audio or a transcript of the call from the Mitchell campaign, but I have a request in. Watts talked about Mitchell being a social and fiscal conservative, and about Anthony being a "career politician".


I will update this when I receive more information. 

UPDATE: I contacted the Mitchell campaign for a transcript of the call, and Communications director Stephen Rhymer said, "While the campaign did provide input on the text of Cong. Watts' call, the script is pure Cong. Watts and we don't have a printed copy."

Brooks Mitchell's official comment on the call: "The phone call from Cong. Watts to Republican voters sends a strong message to all Oklahomans that he actively supports me in my race to unseat Bob Anthony. Watts realizes that by electing me, Oklahoma will get real leadership and the work ethic, drive and determination to do what's best for all Oklahomans at the Corporation Commission."

The Election

Barack Obama is now the President-elect of the United States of America. Let us hope that the Republicans can wake up, ditch the ineffective leadership we have, and surge back into power in two years.

For example, here in the traditionally Democratic portion of Oklahoma, theGOP is viewed as the party of the rich, and the Democrats are for the ‘working man’. To illustrate this, look at where the Tulsa Republicans and Democrats held their watch parties.

The Tulsa County GOP held their watch party at the Crowne Plaza Hotel. Just look at the spelling on that, and think about it for a bit. 'Crowne', with an 'e', not your typical 'Crown'. Sound a bit upper class? Meanwhile, the Democrats held theirs at the Transport Workers Union Hall. A whole lot more 'working man' than the Crowne Plaza. No wonder those stereotypes are held.

Anyway, on to the races in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma was John McCain's best state, and the only state where he won in all counties. Yes, Oklahoma is the reddest state in the union.

Jim Inhofe won easily. Dan Boren crushed his no-name opponent. By the way, Dan Boren will not be running for Governor in 2010. All of the rest of the Oklahoma federal delegation was re-elected.

Jeff Cloud smashed Charles Gray, and Dana Murphy squeezed by Jim Roth. Poor Dana... both the primary and general election were very close.

In the State House, the GOP gained four seats. The Democrats failed to defeat Reps. George Faught (R, Muskogee), Todd Thomsen (R, Ada), and Dennis Johnson (R, Duncan).

In the State Senate, the Republicans gained two seats, taking the upper house for the first time in state history. Kenny Sherrill came short in his upset bid to take Gene Stipe's old seat. The surprise of the night was how close Sen. Jim Reynolds (R, OKC) came to getting beat by David Boren (no relation to OU President David Boren). The Democrats poured a lot of money in the final weeks to try to pull off a totally unexpected upset.

I will be taking a week-long sabbatical to ponder the results and impacts of this election... so long!

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.2 (61.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 33.0 (34.8)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

This will likely be John McCain's best state.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 55.3 (51.3)
  
• Rice (D) - 38.9 (41.0)
• Wallace (I) - 2.9 (3.3)
  
• Undecided - 3.0 (4.4)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Andrew Rice's run looks like it will be a big failure, as expected. Jim Inhofe is going to have a safe return to the Senate.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 35.3 (34.7)
  
• Roth (D) - 49.8 (46.7)
  
• Undecided -14.9 (18.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth is practically at 50%. Dana Murphy will need a huge push to win this race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.7 (45.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 33.2 (31.3)
  
• Undecided - 21.1 (22.7)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud is a safe bet for re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.3% (55.3%)
• Republican - 37.7% (37.7%)
• Independent - 8.0% (7.0%)

Muskogee Politico's Picks - State-Level Races

Muskogee Politico's Picks for State-Level Races

• Corporation Commission, Short Term - Dana Murphy (R, Edmond)

The Muskogee Politico is proud to endorse Dana Murphy for Corporation Commission. She is extremely qualified and experienced to hit the ground running, and will be a watchdog ala Bob Anthony.

Her opponent has been 'bought and paid for' by Aubrey McClendon, out-of-state homosexual activists, and other out-of-state donors. His heavily-documented relationship with regulated entities such as Chesapeake Energy is very concerning (for example, paving a little-used road to one of his chief donors' farm). Also, if elected, Jim Roth would be the very first openly homosexual state-wide elected official in the entire nation. Homosexual activists like Colorado's Tim Gill have poured thousands of dollars into Roth's campaign coffers in an attempt to buy this seat for the homosexual movement.

Dana Murphy not only shares our values, but will be an independent voice for Oklahoma, and will be our watchdog at the Corporation Commission.

• Corporation Commission, Full Term - Jeff Cloud (R, OKC)

We endorse Jeff Cloud for re-election. Cloud has made some mistakes (i.e. the vote against the Red Rock power plant), but we believe that he has done a fairly good job as commissioner.

• State Question No. 735 - Yes

Text:

"This measure amends the Oklahoma Constitution. It adds Section 8D to Article 10. The measure takes effect January 1, 2009. It creates an exemption from personal property tax. The exemption would be for the full amount of taxes due on all household personal property. The exemption would apply to certain injured veterans. It would also apply to those veterans’ surviving spouses. To qualify for the exemption an injured veteran would have to meet certain requirements. First, a branch of the Armed Forces or the Oklahoma National Guard would have to have honorably discharged the veteran from active service. Second, the veteran would have to be an Oklahoma resident. Third, the veteran would have to be the head of the household. Fourth, the veteran would have to be one hundred percent permanently disabled. Fifth, the United States Department of Veterans Affairs would have to certify the disability. Sixth, the disability must have occurred through military action or accident, or resulted from a disease contracted while in active service. The Legislature could pass laws to carry out the exemption. Such laws could not change the amount of the exemption."

The Muskogee Politico strongly endorses this question. Our disabled veterans have paid a great price with their service, and should be rewarded in this small way.

• State Question No. 741 - Yes

Text:

"This measure amends the Oklahoma Constitution. It would add a new Section 22A to Article 10. This section is related to exemptions from property taxes. It would require a person or business to file an application for an exemption. No exemption could be granted prior to filing an application. The Legislature may write laws to carry out the provisions of this section."

We endorse this state question. I believe this is mainly some clean-up language that closes a loophole in the tax structure; to get an exemption you have to file an application to get it.

• State Question No. 742 - Yes
  

Text:

"This measure adds a new section to the State Constitution. It adds Section 36 to Article 2. It gives all people of this state the right to hunt, trap, fish and take game and fish. Such activities would be subject to reasonable regulation. It allows the Wildlife Conservation Commission to approve methods and procedures for hunting, trapping, fishing and taking of game and fish. It allows for taking game and fish by traditional means. It makes hunting, fishing, and trapping the preferred means to manage certain game and fish. The new law will not affect existing laws relating to property rights."

The Muskogee Politico definitely endorses this state question, especially with the possibility of an anti-Second Amendment President and Congress looming on the horizon.

• State Question No. 743 - Your Pick
  

Text:

"This measure amends Section 3 of Article 28 of the Constitution. It requires a customer to be twenty-one and physically present to purchase wine at a winery, festival or trade show. The measure changes the law to allow certain winemakers to sell directly to retail package stores and restaurants in Oklahoma. The change applies to winemakers who produce up to ten thousand gallons of wine a year. It applies to winemakers in state and out of state. Those winemakers may not also use a licensed wholesale distributor. They must sell their wine to every retail package store and restaurant in Oklahoma that wants to buy the wine. The sales must be on the same price basis. The sales must be without discrimination. Those winemakers must use their own leased or owned vehicles to distribute their wine. They may not use common or private carriers. If any part of this measure is found to be unconstitutional, no winemaker could sell wine directly to retail package stores or restaurants in Oklahoma."

This one really is up to you. It would make it easier for small-production Oklahoma wineries to sell their product here in the state. As it is now, they cannot sell directly to Oklahoma customers (i.e. people who come to their wineries); they must go through a wholesaler. I'm personally against alcoholic beverages, so I might vote against this just on principle.

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between October 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

John McCain (R) - 63% (59%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (35%)
Other - 2% (3%)
Undecided - 1% (3%)

The 'Other' category is totally useless, as Oklahoma only has McCain and Obama on the ballot. McCain, needless to say, is headed to a massive victory in Oklahoma.

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 56% (51%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 36% (39%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 6% (7%)
Undecided - 2% (4%)

Jim Inhofe looks sets for a big re-election come Tuesday.

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 46% (50%)
Jim Roth (D) - 49% (43%)
Undecided - 5% (7%)

Jim Roth has taken a slight lead, perhaps due to his attack ads that have been running. Dana Murphy still has time to come back; this will be a close race.

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jeff Cloud (R) - 55% (53%)
Charles Gray (D) - 39% (37%)
Undecided - 6% (10%)

Jeff Cloud appears set to be re-elected by a large margin.

Muskogee Politico's Picks, Intro

Since there is less than one week until the election, it's time to unveil the Muskogee Politico's Picks. I'll list the races here, and then post my picks on separate posts.

Races in Muskogee County:
Incumbents are italicized.

• State House District 13 - Debbie Lienhart (R, Haskell) vs. Jerry McPeak (D, Warner)
  
• State House District 14 - George Faught (R, Muskogee) vs. Eugene Blankenship (D, Muskogee)
• Muskogee County Sheriff - Roger Lee (R, Muskogee) vs. Charles Pearson (D, Muskogee)
  
• Muskogee County Proposition 1
• Muskogee County Proposition 2
  

State-wide Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Corporation Commission, Short Term - Dana Murphy (R, Edmond) vs. Jim Roth (D, OKC)
• Corporation Commission, Full Term - Jeff Cloud (R, OKC) vs. Charles Gray (D, OKC)
• State Question No. 735
• State Question No. 741
  
• State Question No. 742
• State Question No. 743

Judicial Retention Races

• Oklahoma Supreme Court - John Reif
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Tom Colbert
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Joseph Watt
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Charles Johnson
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Gary Lumpkin
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jerry Goodman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jane Wiseman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Keith Rapp
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - John Fischer
  

Federal Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Congressional District 2 - Raymond Wickson (R, Okmulgee) vs. Dan Boren (D, Muskogee)
• U.S. Senate - Jim Inhofe (R, Tulsa) vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice (D, OKC)
  
• President - Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AZ/AK) vs. Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D, IL/DE)

Now, no guarantee that I'll post these all in one day... there's more on the ballot than I realized!

Muskogee Phoenix Endorses Dana Murphy

The Muskogee Phoenix newspaper has endorsed Republicans Dana Murphy and Jeff Cloud for the Corporation Commission seats.

Commission Choices

We encourage voters to return Jeff Cloud to a second term on the state Corporation Commission.

We also encourage a vote for Dana Murphy, replacing the man who currently holds a seat on the commission.

Cloud has done a commendable job in his first term. There is no reason to replace him.

Cloud’s opponent, Charles Gray, has taken an admirable stance, stating that unlike Cloud, he would not take campaign donations from energy companies. State law does not prohibit those donations, though we think it should.

Still, Cloud, as others have pointed out, has shown a good balance between serving the interests of consumers and the interests of the companies the commission regulates.

Murphy has a long background in energy, and she served as an administrative law judge for the commission. She has all the qualifications for the job.

Her opponent, Jim Roth, has been on the board for two years after having been appointed by Gov. Brad Henry and serving as a two-term Oklahoma County commissioner.

Given the current energy crisis and the need for development of alternative energy sources, we believe it’s wise to elect someone with a strong energy background and someone who has dealt with energy and consumer issues for years.

The Muskogee Politico applauds this endorsement.

In this election, the Phoenix has endorsed Democrat Sen. Barack Obama for President, Democrat State Sen. Andrew Rice for U.S. Senate, Republican State Rep. George Faught for re-election, sort of endorsed Democrat State Rep. Jerry McPeak for re-election, and Democrat Sheriff Charles Pearson for re-election. They also endorsed the Muskogee County Questions Propositions 1 and 2, which deal with updating the 911 system. They endorsed voting 'no' on SQ 742, the 'Hunters Bill of Rights'.

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth Part Three

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth
Part Three in a continuing series from the Muskogee Politico

This was emailed to me... enjoy.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 61.6 (63.7)
  
• Obama (D) - 34.8 (32.4)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (4.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

A steady race here. An eight point swing in the voter sample (see below), and still about the same.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 51.3 (52.9)
  
• Rice (D) - 41.0 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.3 (3.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.4 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, very little change here (even with the voter ID difference from last week).

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 34.7 (39.2)
  
• Roth (D) - 46.7 (39.8)
  
• Undecided -18.6 (21.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth released some hard hitting allegations this past week, and this is a direct result of it. So far, Dana Murphy has not responded in a public enough way to counteract the attack ads. However, if she doesn't start to make up some ground fast, this race might not go so well next Tuesday.

That said, read below about the Voted ID sample.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.9 (44.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.3 (29.9)
  
• Undecided - 22.7 (25.2)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud appears likely to cruise to re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 55.3% (52.0%)
• Republican - 37.7% (42.7%)
• Independent -7.0% (5.3%)

There was a 3% jump in the Democrat sample, a 5% drop in the Republican group, and a 2% rise for Independents. With such a drastic tumult in the voter ID, the results in this poll are a bit hard to stake too much in. Eight points would wipe out much of Jim Roth's new lead, so things might not be so bad for Dana Murphy.

Another interesting thing I noticed in the crosstabs was the Congressional District the persons polled lived in. Throughout the tracking polls, the 2nd CD has typically comprised about 2% more of the polled persons than the other districts. Could this have an impact? Possibly.

Dana Murphy Responds to Jim Roth's Attacks

Republican candidate for Corporation Commission Dana Murphy responds to mud-slinging by her Democratic opponent, Jim Roth.

Murphy Says Opponent Resorting to Smear Campaign

(Oklahoma City, OK) Republican Corporation Commission candidate Dana Murphy says appointee Corporation Commissioner Jim Roth’s attempt to smear her name with accusations from a 15 year old divorce is nothing but good ole’ boy politics at its worst. Murphy says it’s being done with hundreds of thousands dollars of campaign contributions from his special interest friends inside and outside the state.

“As a career bureaucrat, he has relied on his powerful, special interest friends to get where he is today”, says Murphy. “He’s panicked because he won’t be able to deliver more favors for powerful friends if he is not elected to the job that was given to him.”

“Unlike everyday Oklahomans like me who have earned their way by hard work and persistence working in the real world, he has made his living by delivering favors to his powerful friends using tax dollars while a public official.”

My opponent is using this personal attack mudslinging to divert voters’ attention from the issues and who’s most qualified to serve on the Commission. As a geologist, energy attorney and former Commission administrative law judge, I have the education and real world experience to be the best Corporation Commissioner. He’s reverted to good old boy mudslinging in the hopes people will forget he has no qualifications for office and that he’s been acting like a lapdog for special interest groups since he was handed the job of Corporation Commissioner.”

Murphy says Oklahomans should demand answers from Roth about his ties to those donating to his campaigns for public office.

He is getting tens of thousands of dollars outside Oklahoma, from those in Georgia, Washington, D.C., Colorado, New York and California. Why?

He’s taken tens of thousands of dollars from officers and CEOs from the largest public utilities in Oklahoma who have regularly had cases in front of him. What are they paying for?

He’s received over a $100,000 in contributions that come from those at one large natural gas company. Didn’t the same company oppose the coal fired plant that Roth voted against, one that would have saved Oklahoma consumers billions of dollars?

Why did Mr. Roth, as a sitting Corporation Commissioner, take campaign contributions during a time when Oklahoma law expressly forbids sitting Commissioners from taking contributions?

Why as a County Commissioner did he sponsor the building of a road and bridge that runs to the tree farm of one of his campaign chairman?

Do Oklahomans really want to elect a lapdog for the special interests or do they want an everyday Oklahoman just like them to stand up as a watchdog, someone who is not afraid to stand up to the powerful special interests?

It’s time for Oklahomans to send the message that the Corporation Commission seat cannot be bought by special interest groups.

For more information about Murphy’s campaign for Corporation Commission, please visit www.danamurphy.com.

As we've reported, and will continue to report, Jim Roth has been bought and paid for by Aubrey McClendon and Chesapeake, as well as his out-of-state donors. Dana Murphy will be our commissioner, and not a puppet for Aubrey McClendon and Chesapeake.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Seven

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.7 (63.0)
  
• Obama (D) - 32.4 (31.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.0 (5.1)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The undecideds are finally dropping off, as we get into the final days of this election.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.9 (53.1)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.9 (2.0)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (5.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

We appear to have reached equilibrium in this race. The numbers are virtually unchanged over the past three weeks.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 39.2 (40.0)
  
• Roth (D) - 39.8 (35.1)
  
• Undecided -21.0 (24.9)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The two candidates are now in a virtual tie, whereas before Dana Murphy held a slim lead. I believe this is directly attributable to Roth's growing presence in television advertising. This race will by far be the closest of the major statewide elections on November 4th. Jim Roth has a huge cash advantage over Murphy (as he is 'Bought and Paid For', as I have said time and again.), however, this appears to be a good year for Republicans in the state of Oklahoma, and I feel confident that Dana Murphy will pull this out.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 44.9 (37.4)
  
• Gray (D) - 29.9 (30.2)
  
• Undecided - 25.2 (32.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, due to increased TV advertising, Jeff Cloud breaks open an expected lead over his opponent. A big part of the movement? I bet it's due to this ad of his.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 52.0% (53.5%)
• Republican - 42.7% (41.0%)
• Independent -5.3% (5.6%)

Things are shaping up to be a great November 4th for the Oklahoma Republican Party. It may be a little tense for a while at the Murphy watch party, but I believe that all Republican state-wide candidates will come out on top, and the State Senate will switch control to the Republicans for the first time in state history.

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth Part Two

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth
Part Two in a continuing series from the Muskogee Politico

Jim Roth, Democrat candidate for Corporation Commission, has raised record-breaking amounts of campaign cash in this election cycle. As of August 11th, over $100,000 of Roth's campaign war-chest came from out of state. Nearly $42,000 is from Texas, and around $10,000 each from California, Colorado, Florida, and Washington, D.C.

Observe Roth's reaction to this student's question:



Jim Roth: bought and paid for by out-of-state contributors.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Six

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.0 (65.5)
  
• Obama (D) - 31.9 (29.1)
  
• Undecided - 5.1 (5.4)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

McCain leads by 31 points. The undecided column has hardly varied the past few weeks; the main action comes from 5-10% of the sample that swing back and forth.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 53.1 (52.5)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.7)
• Wallace (I) - 2.0 (2.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.7)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Senator Inhofe improved slightly since last week. The undecided percentage in this race is almost identical to the Presidential race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 40.0 (37.6)
  
• Roth (D) - 35.1 (33.1)
  
• Undecided -24.9 (29.1)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The closer we get to the election, the more the populace hears about this race. Murphy retains her narrow lead to this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 37.4 (36.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 30.2 (31.5)
  
• Undecided -32.4 (31.6)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Incumbent Jeff Cloud holds his tenuous lead over relative-unknown Charles Gray.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 53.5% (54.4%)
• Republican - 41.0% (40.3%)
• Independent -5.6% (5.2%)

The political landscape in Oklahoma is different than most areas of the nation. There are only a handful of states where you can find a sample like this that goes against their own party by such margins.

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth and Chesapeake

Bought and Paid For: Jim Roth, Aubrey McClendon, and Chesapeake Energy
A continuing series from the Muskogee Politico

$100,675 from 104 employees at Chesapeake. Maximum contribution from Aubrey McClendon. Maximum contribution from Chesapeake's PAC. 55 contributors for a total of $52,450 in 48 hours (6/26-6/27). Deep alliances between the regulator and the regulated.

What do these all have in common? Jim Roth, Democrat candidate for Corporation Commission.

See for yourself: Jim Roth's Chesapeake money from June 13th to August 1st.

Jim Roth's ties to Aubrey McClendon and Chesapeake go farther back than his vote against the Red Rock power plant in September of 2007 (see TMRO's post on this subject).

Keep an eye here for more on this continuing story.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Five

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 65.5 (67.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 29.1 (26.5)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.9)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain still holds a 36-point lead over Obama; one of the largest leads McCain has in the nation.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.5 (56.0)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.7 (35.5)
• Wallace (I) - 2.2 (2.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.7 (5.8)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Inhofe leads by almost 13%. However, Rice has closed the gap considerably from earlier this year. Inhofe is still favored to win by a large percentage.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 37.6 (38.3)
  
• Roth (D) - 33.3 (29.1)
  
• Undecided -29.1 (32.6)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Roth made some gains this week; but the relative insignificance of this race makes it nearly impossible to predict at this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 36.9 (not previously polled)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.5 (not previously polled)
  
• Undecided -31.6 (not previously polled)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

TvPoll polled the other Corporation Commission race this week. The lack of attention on this race, as with the other Corporation Commission race, has contributed significantly to the very high number of undecideds.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.4% (48.7%)
• Republican - 40.3% (45.4%)
• Independent -5.2% (5.9%)

This could very well explain the discrepancy between the results from last week and this week.

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between September 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 3.8%):

John McCain (R) - 64% (65%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (32%)
Other - 1% (1%)
Undecided - 2% (2%)

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 53% (56%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 37% (34%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 7% (6%)
Undecided - 3% (4%)

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 50% (54%)
Jim Roth (D) - 41% (36%)
Undecided - 9% (10%)

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jeff Cloud (R) -47% (52%)
Charles Gray (D) - 44% (37%)
Undecided - 10% (11%)

McCain and Inhofe are cruising to victory. Dana Murphy continues to hold a slim lead over Jim Roth, leading among Republicans and Independents. The surprise poll was the Cloud-Gray race;
they appear locked in a very close race. The Murphy-Roth contest has overshadowed the Cloud-Gray one, perhaps contributing to the closeness of the results.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Four

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 67.6 (65.8)
  
• Obama - 26.5 (26.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.9 (8.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 56.0 (55.0)
  
• Rice - 35.5 (33.4)
• Wallace - 2.6 (1.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.8 (10.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Jim Inhofe continues to hold a 20-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 38.3 (45.0)
  
• Roth - 29.1 (32.6)
  
• Undecided - 32.6 (22.3)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

The Corporation Commission race remains extremely fluid, with Murphy falling 7% and Roth dropping 3%. The Undecided column rose by 10 points, the exact number Murphy and Roth fell by.

TvPoll had some interesting commentary on the past few weeks polling for this race:

"Little changed in poll numbers from week one to week two between Corporation Commissioner Candidates Dana Murphy (R) and Jim Roth (D). Both weeks showed a tight race with Murphy in the lead by about 15 points.

Week three, however, concluded with very different results. 24% were in favor of Murphy, 21% in favor of Roth and 55% were undecided in the race for Corporation Commissioner.

What changed? In week one and two, TvPoll.com asked respondents who they were likely to favor when it came time to vote by introducing each candidate along with their party affiliation. To test for party influences, TvPoll.com asked the same question in week three, only this time without differentiating the candidates by party. The difference is significant."

(emphasis mine)

This race will continue to be very fluid.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 50.1% (49.6%)
• Republican - 44.8% (44.5%)
• Independent -5.0% (5.9%)

TvPoll/KWTV Weekly Tracking Poll

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 68.8 (65.9)
  
• Obama - 27.4 (27.9)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (6.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain smashes Obama in yet another Oklahoma poll; this time with a 41-point lead. McCain nows lead Obama among Democrats by 4, and among Independents by 22.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 55.7 (57.2)
  
• Rice - 30.6 (29.2)
• Wallace - 4.4 (3.6)
  
• Undecided - 9.3 (10.0)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Most of the little movement in this race came from Independents, who flipped from Inhofe to Rice (from 50-20, to 25-55). Inhofe holds a very large lead, thwarting Democrat hopes to upset him in November.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 45.0 (44.7)
  
• Roth - 32.6 (36.1)
  
• Undecided - 22.3 (19.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Dana Murphy continues to hold a lead in the Corporation Commission race, extending it by nearly four points this week. The large percentage of undecideds is easily attributed to the lack of attention paid to this race so far, and the relative lack of knowledge of the Corporation Commission in general. Most of the movement in the numbers came from Democrats; Murphy gained 5%, and Roth lost 8%.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 49.6% (50.1%)
• Republican - 44.5% (43.4%)
• Independent -5.9% (6.5%)