The Election

Barack Obama is now the President-elect of the United States of America. Let us hope that the Republicans can wake up, ditch the ineffective leadership we have, and surge back into power in two years.

For example, here in the traditionally Democratic portion of Oklahoma, theGOP is viewed as the party of the rich, and the Democrats are for the ‘working man’. To illustrate this, look at where the Tulsa Republicans and Democrats held their watch parties.

The Tulsa County GOP held their watch party at the Crowne Plaza Hotel. Just look at the spelling on that, and think about it for a bit. 'Crowne', with an 'e', not your typical 'Crown'. Sound a bit upper class? Meanwhile, the Democrats held theirs at the Transport Workers Union Hall. A whole lot more 'working man' than the Crowne Plaza. No wonder those stereotypes are held.

Anyway, on to the races in Oklahoma.

Oklahoma was John McCain's best state, and the only state where he won in all counties. Yes, Oklahoma is the reddest state in the union.

Jim Inhofe won easily. Dan Boren crushed his no-name opponent. By the way, Dan Boren will not be running for Governor in 2010. All of the rest of the Oklahoma federal delegation was re-elected.

Jeff Cloud smashed Charles Gray, and Dana Murphy squeezed by Jim Roth. Poor Dana... both the primary and general election were very close.

In the State House, the GOP gained four seats. The Democrats failed to defeat Reps. George Faught (R, Muskogee), Todd Thomsen (R, Ada), and Dennis Johnson (R, Duncan).

In the State Senate, the Republicans gained two seats, taking the upper house for the first time in state history. Kenny Sherrill came short in his upset bid to take Gene Stipe's old seat. The surprise of the night was how close Sen. Jim Reynolds (R, OKC) came to getting beat by David Boren (no relation to OU President David Boren). The Democrats poured a lot of money in the final weeks to try to pull off a totally unexpected upset.

I will be taking a week-long sabbatical to ponder the results and impacts of this election... so long!

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.2 (61.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 33.0 (34.8)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

This will likely be John McCain's best state.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 55.3 (51.3)
  
• Rice (D) - 38.9 (41.0)
• Wallace (I) - 2.9 (3.3)
  
• Undecided - 3.0 (4.4)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Andrew Rice's run looks like it will be a big failure, as expected. Jim Inhofe is going to have a safe return to the Senate.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 35.3 (34.7)
  
• Roth (D) - 49.8 (46.7)
  
• Undecided -14.9 (18.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth is practically at 50%. Dana Murphy will need a huge push to win this race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.7 (45.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 33.2 (31.3)
  
• Undecided - 21.1 (22.7)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud is a safe bet for re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.3% (55.3%)
• Republican - 37.7% (37.7%)
• Independent - 8.0% (7.0%)

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between October 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

John McCain (R) - 63% (59%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (35%)
Other - 2% (3%)
Undecided - 1% (3%)

The 'Other' category is totally useless, as Oklahoma only has McCain and Obama on the ballot. McCain, needless to say, is headed to a massive victory in Oklahoma.

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 56% (51%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 36% (39%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 6% (7%)
Undecided - 2% (4%)

Jim Inhofe looks sets for a big re-election come Tuesday.

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 46% (50%)
Jim Roth (D) - 49% (43%)
Undecided - 5% (7%)

Jim Roth has taken a slight lead, perhaps due to his attack ads that have been running. Dana Murphy still has time to come back; this will be a close race.

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jeff Cloud (R) - 55% (53%)
Charles Gray (D) - 39% (37%)
Undecided - 6% (10%)

Jeff Cloud appears set to be re-elected by a large margin.

Muskogee Politico's Picks, Intro

Since there is less than one week until the election, it's time to unveil the Muskogee Politico's Picks. I'll list the races here, and then post my picks on separate posts.

Races in Muskogee County:
Incumbents are italicized.

• State House District 13 - Debbie Lienhart (R, Haskell) vs. Jerry McPeak (D, Warner)
  
• State House District 14 - George Faught (R, Muskogee) vs. Eugene Blankenship (D, Muskogee)
• Muskogee County Sheriff - Roger Lee (R, Muskogee) vs. Charles Pearson (D, Muskogee)
  
• Muskogee County Proposition 1
• Muskogee County Proposition 2
  

State-wide Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Corporation Commission, Short Term - Dana Murphy (R, Edmond) vs. Jim Roth (D, OKC)
• Corporation Commission, Full Term - Jeff Cloud (R, OKC) vs. Charles Gray (D, OKC)
• State Question No. 735
• State Question No. 741
  
• State Question No. 742
• State Question No. 743

Judicial Retention Races

• Oklahoma Supreme Court - John Reif
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Tom Colbert
• Oklahoma Supreme Court - Joseph Watt
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Charles Johnson
• Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals - Gary Lumpkin
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jerry Goodman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Jane Wiseman
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - Keith Rapp
• Oklahoma Court of Civil Appeals - John Fischer
  

Federal Races
Incumbents are italicized.

• Congressional District 2 - Raymond Wickson (R, Okmulgee) vs. Dan Boren (D, Muskogee)
• U.S. Senate - Jim Inhofe (R, Tulsa) vs. State Sen. Andrew Rice (D, OKC)
  
• President - Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R, AZ/AK) vs. Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D, IL/DE)

Now, no guarantee that I'll post these all in one day... there's more on the ballot than I realized!

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 61.6 (63.7)
  
• Obama (D) - 34.8 (32.4)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (4.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

A steady race here. An eight point swing in the voter sample (see below), and still about the same.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 51.3 (52.9)
  
• Rice (D) - 41.0 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.3 (3.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.4 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, very little change here (even with the voter ID difference from last week).

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 34.7 (39.2)
  
• Roth (D) - 46.7 (39.8)
  
• Undecided -18.6 (21.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth released some hard hitting allegations this past week, and this is a direct result of it. So far, Dana Murphy has not responded in a public enough way to counteract the attack ads. However, if she doesn't start to make up some ground fast, this race might not go so well next Tuesday.

That said, read below about the Voted ID sample.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.9 (44.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.3 (29.9)
  
• Undecided - 22.7 (25.2)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud appears likely to cruise to re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 55.3% (52.0%)
• Republican - 37.7% (42.7%)
• Independent -7.0% (5.3%)

There was a 3% jump in the Democrat sample, a 5% drop in the Republican group, and a 2% rise for Independents. With such a drastic tumult in the voter ID, the results in this poll are a bit hard to stake too much in. Eight points would wipe out much of Jim Roth's new lead, so things might not be so bad for Dana Murphy.

Another interesting thing I noticed in the crosstabs was the Congressional District the persons polled lived in. Throughout the tracking polls, the 2nd CD has typically comprised about 2% more of the polled persons than the other districts. Could this have an impact? Possibly.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Seven

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.7 (63.0)
  
• Obama (D) - 32.4 (31.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.0 (5.1)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The undecideds are finally dropping off, as we get into the final days of this election.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.9 (53.1)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.9 (2.0)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (5.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

We appear to have reached equilibrium in this race. The numbers are virtually unchanged over the past three weeks.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 39.2 (40.0)
  
• Roth (D) - 39.8 (35.1)
  
• Undecided -21.0 (24.9)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The two candidates are now in a virtual tie, whereas before Dana Murphy held a slim lead. I believe this is directly attributable to Roth's growing presence in television advertising. This race will by far be the closest of the major statewide elections on November 4th. Jim Roth has a huge cash advantage over Murphy (as he is 'Bought and Paid For', as I have said time and again.), however, this appears to be a good year for Republicans in the state of Oklahoma, and I feel confident that Dana Murphy will pull this out.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 44.9 (37.4)
  
• Gray (D) - 29.9 (30.2)
  
• Undecided - 25.2 (32.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, due to increased TV advertising, Jeff Cloud breaks open an expected lead over his opponent. A big part of the movement? I bet it's due to this ad of his.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 52.0% (53.5%)
• Republican - 42.7% (41.0%)
• Independent -5.3% (5.6%)

Things are shaping up to be a great November 4th for the Oklahoma Republican Party. It may be a little tense for a while at the Murphy watch party, but I believe that all Republican state-wide candidates will come out on top, and the State Senate will switch control to the Republicans for the first time in state history.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Six

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.0 (65.5)
  
• Obama (D) - 31.9 (29.1)
  
• Undecided - 5.1 (5.4)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

McCain leads by 31 points. The undecided column has hardly varied the past few weeks; the main action comes from 5-10% of the sample that swing back and forth.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 53.1 (52.5)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.7)
• Wallace (I) - 2.0 (2.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.7)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Senator Inhofe improved slightly since last week. The undecided percentage in this race is almost identical to the Presidential race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 40.0 (37.6)
  
• Roth (D) - 35.1 (33.1)
  
• Undecided -24.9 (29.1)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The closer we get to the election, the more the populace hears about this race. Murphy retains her narrow lead to this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 37.4 (36.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 30.2 (31.5)
  
• Undecided -32.4 (31.6)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Incumbent Jeff Cloud holds his tenuous lead over relative-unknown Charles Gray.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 53.5% (54.4%)
• Republican - 41.0% (40.3%)
• Independent -5.6% (5.2%)

The political landscape in Oklahoma is different than most areas of the nation. There are only a handful of states where you can find a sample like this that goes against their own party by such margins.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Five

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 65.5 (67.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 29.1 (26.5)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.9)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain still holds a 36-point lead over Obama; one of the largest leads McCain has in the nation.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.5 (56.0)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.7 (35.5)
• Wallace (I) - 2.2 (2.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.7 (5.8)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Inhofe leads by almost 13%. However, Rice has closed the gap considerably from earlier this year. Inhofe is still favored to win by a large percentage.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 37.6 (38.3)
  
• Roth (D) - 33.3 (29.1)
  
• Undecided -29.1 (32.6)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Roth made some gains this week; but the relative insignificance of this race makes it nearly impossible to predict at this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 36.9 (not previously polled)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.5 (not previously polled)
  
• Undecided -31.6 (not previously polled)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

TvPoll polled the other Corporation Commission race this week. The lack of attention on this race, as with the other Corporation Commission race, has contributed significantly to the very high number of undecideds.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.4% (48.7%)
• Republican - 40.3% (45.4%)
• Independent -5.2% (5.9%)

This could very well explain the discrepancy between the results from last week and this week.

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between September 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 3.8%):

John McCain (R) - 64% (65%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (32%)
Other - 1% (1%)
Undecided - 2% (2%)

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 53% (56%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 37% (34%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 7% (6%)
Undecided - 3% (4%)

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 50% (54%)
Jim Roth (D) - 41% (36%)
Undecided - 9% (10%)

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 3.9%):

Jeff Cloud (R) -47% (52%)
Charles Gray (D) - 44% (37%)
Undecided - 10% (11%)

McCain and Inhofe are cruising to victory. Dana Murphy continues to hold a slim lead over Jim Roth, leading among Republicans and Independents. The surprise poll was the Cloud-Gray race;
they appear locked in a very close race. The Murphy-Roth contest has overshadowed the Cloud-Gray one, perhaps contributing to the closeness of the results.