April Grace joins race for State Superintendent

Believe it or not, but election season will be on us before we know it. State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister is term-limited and thus her position will be an open seat in next year's election. The first two candidates to throw their hats in the ring are both Republicans, including Shawnee Superintendent April Grace (you can read more from NonDoc on both here). The other declared candidate is John Cox, who was the Democratic nominee for State Superintendent in 2014 and 2018.

Dr. April Grace Announces Run for State Superintendent 

Tuesday, July 6, 2021 — Having raised over $100,000.00 with over 350  individual donors, Dr. April Grace, who is currently serving as the Shawnee Superintendent of  Public Schools, announces her run for Oklahoma State Superintendent. Grace has been part of  the education community for over 30 years. She has been a classroom teacher, building  administrator, assistant superintendent, and superintendent.  

Pre-Runoff Finance Reports: other Statewide races

Continuing through the pre-primary campaign finance reports, we'll now look at some of the remaining down-ballot statewide races. As in previous posts on this topic, the totals are campaign-to-date.

STATE AUDITOR and INSPECTOR

REPUBLICANS

Charlie Prater (R)
Total raised: $440,400.00 (includes $306,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $383,820.19
Total cash-on-hand: $56,579.80
Burn rate: 87.15%

Cindy Byrd (R)
Total raised: $119,198.79
Total spent: $83,289.30
Total cash-on-hand: $28,434.52
Burn rate: 74.55%

John Uzzo (R)
Total raised: $350.00
Total spent: $230.00
Total cash-on-hand: $120.00

LIBERTARIAN

John Yeutter (L)

Total raised: $4,243.96
Total spent: $3,362.52
Total cash-on-hand: $881.44
Burn rate: 65.71%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

REPUBLICANS

Mike Hunter (R)
Total raised: $2,147,986.11 (includes $700,000 personal loan)
Total spent: $1,921,131.01
Total cash-on-hand: $215,810.91
Burn rate: 89.9%

Gentner Drummond (R)
Total raised: $2,166,641.60 (includes $1,280,000 personal loan)
Total spent: $1,902,393.15
Total cash-on-hand: $234,251.85
Burn rate: 89.04%

Angela Bonilla (R)
Total raised: $1,506.44
Total spent: $2,622.48
Total cash-on-hand: $-1,297.48

DEMOCRAT

Mark Myles (D)
Total raised: $36,549.18
Total spent: $23,131.50
Total cash-on-hand: $5,128.50
Burn rate: 81.85%

STATE TREASURER 

Randy McDaniel (R)
Total raised: $292,933.37
Total spent: $42,878.59
Total cash-on-hand: $248,624.23
Burn rate: 14.71%

Charles De Coune (I)
Total raised: $17,797.00 (includes $5,000 loan)
Total spent: $1,944.87
Total cash-on-hand: $15,852.13
Burn rate: 10.93%

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

REPUBLICANS

Joy Hofmeister (R)
Total raised: $438,635.42
Total spent: $333,510.01
Total cash-on-hand: $102,780.52
Burn rate: 76.44%

Linda Murphy (R)
Total raised: $21,913.93
Total spent: $17,490.29
Total cash-on-hand: $3,589.71
Burn rate: 82.97%

Will Farrell (R)
Total raised: $3,168.00 ($2,268 in personal loans)
Total spent: $3,053.45
Total cash-on-hand: $114.55

DEMOCRAT

John Cox (D)
Total raised: $22,386.74
Total spent: $15,401.18
Total cash-on-hand: $6,653.82
Burn rate: 69.83%

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

Glen Mulready (R)
Total raised: $698,499.93
Total spent: $571,340.26
Total cash-on-hand: $120,761.43
Burn rate: 82.55%

Donald Chasteen (R)
Total raised: $12,650.00
Total spent: $11,229.25
Total cash-on-hand: $1,420.75

DEMOCRAT

Kimberly Fobbs (D)
Total raised: $18,060.00
Total spent: $13,646.10
Total cash-on-hand: $1,707.90
Burn rate: 88.88%

CORPORATION COMMISSIONER

Bob Anthony (R)
Total raised: $666,759.37 (includes $435,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $588,269.14
Total cash-on-hand: $78,490.23
Burn rate: 88.23%

Brian Bingman (R)
Total raised: $497,405.22 (includes $110,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $483,390.14
Total cash-on-hand: $14,015.08
Burn rate: 97.18%

Harold Spradling (R)
Total raised: $5,000 (all a personal loan)
Total spent: $0
Total cash-on-hand: $5,000

DEMOCRATS

Ashley McCray (D)
Total raised: $12,128.46
Total spent: $2,088.29
Total cash-on-hand: $7,320.71
Burn rate: 22.19%

Blake Cummings (D)
Total raised: $14,673.73 (includes $10,610 loan)
Total spent: $14,191.68
Total cash-on-hand: $-1,888.51
Burn rate: 115.35%

Beau Williams (D)
Total raised: $71,633.74 (includes $21,500.00 loan)
Total spent: $67,656.00
Total cash-on-hand: $0

Pre-Primary Finance Reports: other Statewide races

Continuing through the pre-primary campaign finance reports, we'll now look at some of the remaining down-ballot statewide races. As in previous posts on this topic, the totals are campaign-to-date.

STATE AUDITOR and INSPECTOR

REPUBLICANS

Charlie Prater (R)
Total raised: $196,750.00 (includes $73,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $173,746.15
Total cash-on-hand: $23,003.85
Burn rate: 88.31%

Cindy Byrd (R)
Total raised: $83,022.00
Total spent: $51,003.32
Total cash-on-hand: $24,682.71
Burn rate: 67.39%

John Uzzo - $1,050 in in-kind expenditures, nothing else raised or spent

LIBERTARIAN

John Yeutter (L)

Total raised: $3,301.56
Total spent: $3,120.12
Total cash-on-hand: $181.44
Burn rate: 94.50%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

REPUBLICANS

Mike Hunter (R)
Total raised: $1,291,093.11 (includes $300,000 personal loan)
Total spent: $1,028,171.31
Total cash-on-hand: $253,177.61
Burn rate: 80.24%

Gentner Drummond (R)
Total raised: $1,282,924.05 (includes $875,000 personal loan)
Total spent: $1,199,049.19
Total cash-on-hand: $68,425.81
Burn rate: 94.60%

Angela Bonilla (R)
Total raised: $1,431.44
Total spent: $1,152.50
Total cash-on-hand: $97.50
Burn rate: 92.20%

DEMOCRAT

Mark Myles (D)
Total raised: $16,638.39
Total spent: $6,305.54
Total cash-on-hand: $1,014.46
Burn rate: 86.14%

STATE TREASURER 

Randy McDaniel (R)
Total raised: $289,783.37
Total spent: $35,333.75
Total cash-on-hand: $253,019.07
Burn rate: 12.25%

Charles De Coune (I)
Total raised: $6,050
Total spent: $396.51
Total cash-on-hand: $5,653.49
Burn rate: 6.55%

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

REPUBLICANS

Joy Hofmeister (R)
Total raised: $279,845.42
Total spent: $168,447.86
Total cash-on-hand: $109,552.67
Burn rate: 60.59%

Linda Murphy (R)
Total raised: $14,338.93
Total spent: $5,735.21
Total cash-on-hand: $7,769.79
Burn rate: 42.47%

Will Farrell (R)
Total raised: $2,768.00 ($2,268 in personal loans)
Total spent: $2,743.60
Total cash-on-hand: $24.40
Burn rate: 99.12%

DEMOCRAT

John Cox (D)
Total raised: $15,300.00
Total spent: $2,867.46
Total cash-on-hand: $12,432.54
Burn rate: 18.74%

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

Glen Mulready (R)
Total raised: $591,098.40
Total spent: $489,694.20
Total cash-on-hand: $95,555.96
Burn rate: 83.67%

Donald Chasteen (R)
Total raised: $7,900.00
Total spent: $3,214.68
Total cash-on-hand: $4,685.32
Burn rate: 40.69%

DEMOCRAT

Kimberly Fobbs (D)
Total raised: $9,024.00
Total spent: $5,865.30
Total cash-on-hand: $2,908.70
Burn rate: 66.85%

CORPORATION COMMISSIONER

Bob Anthony (R)
Total raised: $510,375.00 (includes $360,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $374,743.55
Total cash-on-hand: $135,631.45
Burn rate: 73.43%

Brian Bingman (R)
Total raised: $418,029.22 (includes $100,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $268,620.71
Total cash-on-hand: $149,408.51
Burn rate: 64.26%

Harold Spradling (R)
Total raised: $5,000 (all a personal loan)
Total spent: $0
Total cash-on-hand: $5,000
Burn rate: 0%

DEMOCRATS

Beau Williams (D)
Total raised: $37,573.74 (includes $1,500.00 loan)
Total spent: $14,721.81
Total cash-on-hand: $18,874.19
Burn rate: 43.82%

Blake Cummings (D)
Total raised: $11,845.56 (includes $10,000 loan)
Total spent: $2,812.41
Total cash-on-hand: $7,662.59
Burn rate: 26.85%

Ashley McCray (D)
Total raised: $1,868.00
Total spent: $557.65
Total cash-on-hand: $1,310.35
Burn rate: 29.85%

1Q Campaign Finance Reports for other Statewide races

Continuing through the 1st Quarter campaign finance reports, we'll now look at some of the remaining down-ballot statewide races. As in previous posts on this topic, the totals are campaign-to-date. Some candidates filed for these offices, but did not announce their candidacy in time to collect 1st Quarter contributions.

STATE AUDITOR & INSPECTOR

Charlie Prater (R)
Total raised: $106,150.00 (includes $73,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $32,165.22
Total cash-on-hand: $73,984.78
Burn rate: 30.3%

Cindy Byrd (R)
Total raised: $32,248.97
Total spent: $12,712.38
Total cash-on-hand: $14,762.62
Burn rate: 46.27%

John Yeutter (L)

Total raised: $1,806.56
Total spent: $584.80
Total cash-on-hand: $1,221.76
Burn rate: 32.37%

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Mike Hunter (R)
Total raised: $690,698.39
Total spent: $272,477.06
Total cash-on-hand: $408,902.94
Burn rate: 39.99%

STATE TREASURER 

Randy McDaniel (R)
Total raised: $280,904.92
Total spent: $28,017.71
Total cash-on-hand: $251,456.66
Burn rate: 10.03%

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

Joy Hofmeister (R)
Total raised: $185,725.33
Total spent: $57,913.86
Total cash-on-hand: $126,969.67
Burn rate: 31.32%

John Cox (D)
Total raised: $8,250.00
Total spent: $0
Total cash-on-hand: $8,250.00
Burn rate: 0%

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

Glen Mulready (R)
Total raised: $571,863.64
Total spent: $175,512.47
Total cash-on-hand: $386,757.69
Burn rate: 31.21%

CORPORATION COMMISSIONER

Bob Anthony (R)
Total raised: $454,200.00 (includes $360,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $1,040.86
Total cash-on-hand: $453,159.14
Burn rate: 0.23%

Brian Bingman (R)
Total raised: $388,179.22 (includes $100,000.00 loan)
Total spent: $26,398.51
Total cash-on-hand: $361,780.71
Burn rate: 6.8%

2014 Election Results Map: State Superintendent

The latest addition to the Election Results Maps series is the 2014 State Superintendent race.

(click image to view larger)

Joy Hofmeister won 56 counties to John Cox's 21, the best performance for any Democratic candidate on Tuesday. Several of the counties were within one percentage point -- in fact, Cox won Jefferson County by one vote (616 to 615).

Still, Hofmeister's margins in the Tulsa metro and western Oklahoma were more than enough to carry her to victory. Hofmeister received 61.95% in Tulsa County, compared to her 52.36% in Oklahoma County.

Last SoonerPoll survey: Fallin lead cut to 8, Hofmeister up 2, Inhofe and Lankford up 30+

In the final survey conducted by SoonerPoll before the election on Tuesday, results find Governor Mary Fallin's lead slipping slightly, the State Superintendent race a virtual tie, and the GOP running away with both U.S. Senate races.

I've posted the results from SoonerPoll's previous surveys as well. The September poll is in parentheses, and the August poll is in brackets. I've also included the movement from the previous survey.

News9/News on 6/SoonerPoll surveys

Crosstabs: Oct. 29 (Sept. 29) [Aug. 30]

Oct. 29 MoE +/-3.18% (Sept. 29 MoE +/- 4.9%) [Aug 30. MoE +/- 3.99%]

Governor

• Mary Fallin (R): 48.4 (49.9) [50.3]   -1.5%
• Joe Dorman (D): 40.0 (35.8) [32.1]   +4.2%
• Richard Prawdzienski (I): 2.8 (3.2) [1.2]   -0.4%
• Kimberly Willis (I): 1.7 (3.3) (1.1]   -1.6%
• Unsure 7.1 (7.9)  (15.0]   -0.8%

Have Joe Dorman's efforts to tie Governor Fallin to unpopular State Superintendent Janet Barresi been working? Fallin lost a little bit of ground, while Dorman climbed to his highest point yet in SoonerPoll's survey. It's probably too little, too late, but this race just might end up a lot closer than expected.

U.S. Senate - full term

• Jim Inhofe (R):  62.7 (56.4) [59.1]   +6.3%
• Matt Silverstein (D): 27.8 (32.0) [27.4]   -4.2%
• Ray Woods (I): 2.6 (3.8) [1.7]   -1.2%
• Aaron Delozier (I): 1.3 (0.5) [1.7]   +0.8%
• Joan Farr (I): 1.3 (0.8) [1.2]   +0.5%
• Unsure 4.4 (6.5) [8.8]   -2.1%

Don't be surprised if Inhofe hits 70% on election night.

U.S. Senate - partial term

• James Lankford (R):  59.4 (56.2) [58.2]   +3.2%
• Connie Johnson (D): 28.1 (28.1) [28.1]   even
• Mark Beard (I): 3.5 (3.5) [3.0]   even
• Unsure 9.0 (12.2) [10.7]   -3.2%

I don't think I've ever seen a candidate draw the same exact percentage three months in a row. I'd say 28.1% is about as low as Lankford will get Johnson to go.

State Superintendent

• Joy Hofmeister (R):42.3 (38.3) [38.4]   +4.0%
• John Cox (D): 40.1 (38.0) [40.5]   +2.1%
• Unsure 17.6 (23.7) [21.2]   -6.1

This is the general election race of the cycle. In all three surveys, Cox and Hofmeister have been within the margin of error. Hofmeister has a very slight lead at the moment, but John Cox is by no means out of reach. This race still is the Oklahoma Democratic Party's best opportunity for a win.

The Democrats are trying to make the entire election a referendum on Janet Barresi's tenure as State Superintendent. However, Hofmeister's numbers grew at double the rate Cox's did, while Governor Fallin lost ground. In an ironic twist, is this "Barresi tactic" working more in the gubernatorial race than it is in the superintendent race?

Election Results Maps: Democrat Senate, Superintendent runoffs

Another statewide election day has passed, and another set of my Election Results Maps has been produced. Since the Republicans had no statewide races go to a runoff, these maps are of the two Democrat races. As always, the colors have more to do with the candidate's dominant sign/logo color than with ideology.

First up, the Senate runoff between uber-liberal state senator Connie Johnson and sometimes-successful perennial candidate Jim Rogers.

(click to view larger)

As with the primary, Johnson basically only won because she rolled up big margins in the OKC and Tulsa metros. Otherwise, Rogers performed very well in the rural areas. Johnson did make more inroads than in the primary, as evidenced when you compare this map to the primary election map.

Contrary to what ODP Chairman Wallace Collins recently told the press, however, James Lankford won't have any problem trouncing Johnson.

Next, the State Superintendent race.

(click to view larger)

Cox obliterated Deskin in this runoff. I had to add an additional color to add intensity to this particular map. In Adair County, Cox took 90.3% of the vote -- his highest county, and one of the highest percentages I've seen in my map-making "career". For comparison, here is the primary election map. Deskin led in 17 counties in the primary, but only won three in the runoff.

This race will hold the Democrats' best chance of victory in November. Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee, may have her hands full with John Cox.

Map: Democrat State Superintendent Primary Results

(click picture to view larger)

While I was working on the Democrat's Senate primary map, I decided to also do their State Superintendent primary. Since, the GOP side was unexpectedly lopsided (Joy Hofmeister won every county, and incumbent superintendent Janet Barresi came in third out of three candidates), I was curious to see the other side.

John Cox came out on top with 68,889 votes, Freda Deskin was a close second with 64,135, while Jack Herron had 22,335 and Ivan Holmes got 12,504. Cox and Deskin are now in a runoff, the winner of which will face Hofmeister in the general election.

Cox received over 70% of the vote in some far eastern counties, while Deskin ran in the upper 40s and low 50s in the OKC and Tulsa metros.

2014 Statewide Election Preview: 3Q Finance Reports

As the 2014 elections approach, five incumbent statewide elected officials have yet to draw an opponent, while three have challengers who are filing campaign finance reports. Whether there is a contested race yet or not, the 3rd Quarter ethics reports show an interesting preview of the upcoming electoral contests.

Filing for statewide office in 2014 will be on April 9th to April 11th, with the Primary being held on June 24th. Runoff elections (if necessary) will be on August 26th, and the General election is on November 4th.

Candidates will be listed in order of most cash-on-hand. Incumbents are in bold.

ATTORNEY GENERAL

Scott Pruitt (R)
3Q raised: $86,252.82  -  3Q spent: $27,962.83  -  Cash-on-hand: $123,138.70

AUDITOR & INSPECTOR

Gary Jones (R)
3Q raised: $250  -  3Q spent: $0  -  Cash-on-hand: $6,588.33

GOVERNOR

Mary Fallin (R)
3Q raised: $368,243.12  -  3Q spent: $108,227.86  -  Cash-on-hand: $1,218,401.35

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER

John Doak (R)
3Q raised: $51,275  -  3Q spent: $20,955.44  -  Cash-on-hand: $294,475.14

LABOR COMMISSIONER

Mark Costello (R)
3Q raised: $202,000  -  3Q spent: $0  -  Cash-on-hand: $202,000
Michael Workman (D)
3Q raised: $500  -  3Q spent: $1,188.05  -  Cash-on-hand: $40.95

LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR

Todd Lamb (R)
3Q raised: $382,488.59  -  3Q spent: $9,788.44  -  Cash-on-hand: $414,664.63
Cathy Cummings (D)
3Q raised: $1,750  -  3Q spent: $676.80  -  Cash-on-hand: $1,533.20

SUPERINTENDENT OF PUBLIC INSTRUCTION

Joy Hofmeister (R)
3Q raised: $83,136  -  3Q spent: $27,221.75  -  Cash-on-hand: $200,086.61
Janet Barresi (R)
3Q raised: $48,850  -  3Q spent: $41,466.44  -  Cash-on-hand: $149,130.07
John Cox (D)
3Q raised: $69,280.70  -  3Q spent: $10,162.57  -  Cash-on-hand: $58,186
Donna Anderson (D)
3Q raised: $11,877.64  -  3Q spent: $13,845.52  -  Cash-on-hand: $4,395.38
Jack Herron (D)
3Q raised: $3,950  -  3Q spent: $224.80  -  Cash-on-hand: $3,725.20
Freda Deskin (D)
{filed after 3Q deadline}
Ivan Holmes (D)
{filed after 3Q deadline}

TREASURER

Ken Miller (R)
3Q raised: $51,000  -  3Q spent: $672.29  -  Cash-on-hand: $116,186.19


Interesting notes:

• Big money: Governor Fallin officially tops the million-dollar mark in cash-on-hand, with seven months left before candidate filing. Talk about formidable.
• Most: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb raised the most this quarter ($382,000), edging out Fallin by $14,000.
• Loans: Labor Commissioner Costello ($202,000); John Cox ($50,162.57); Donna Anderson ($1,000)
• Hot race: The big race of 2014 will be the State Superintendent seat. Two Republicans and five Democrats have campaign accounts right now, and that number will probably go higher.
• Low spenders: Auditor Gary Jones and Labor Commissioner Costello both spent no money in the third quarter, and Treasurer Ken Miller spent less than $700. 
• Slow start: Jones raised $250, and Costello raised nothing (outside of his $202k loan).