SoonerPoll: GOP trouble? Stitt leads Hofmeister by 1, Walters trails by 5

SoonerPoll is out with two new surveys that seem to indicate some brewing trouble for GOP candidates in the two most competitive and high-profile statewide races this fall - those of Governor and State Superintendent.

Runoff Poll: Mullin and Walters lead big, Brecheen and Frix nearly tied

Tulsa's News On 6 and Oklahoma City's News 9 partnered with SoonerPoll to survey the Republican runoff elections for U.S. Senate, State Superintendent, and 2nd Congressional District. Here are the topline results:

Poll: Lankford, Stitt with huge majorities, Mullin ahead in Senate special election

SoonerPoll is out with their latest survey of the statewide GOP primaries, and the results are pretty interesting. 

• Sen. Lankford leads his two challengers by a 7-1 margin
• Gov. Stitt leads his three challengers by a 7-1 margin
• Gentner Drummond has a large lead over Attorney General John O'Connor
• Markwayne Mullin has a substantial lead in the Inhofe special election, with T.W. Shannon clearly in second
• State Auditor Cindy Byrd has a lead, but the rest of the statewide offices are a complete jumble

News9 and NewsOn6 GOP Statewide Primary Poll

Poll: GOP leads OK-Gov race by 2%, wide leads elsewhere

A recent survey performed by SoonerPoll for Oklahoma's CBS affiliates (KWTV in Oklahoma City, and KOTV in Tulsa) finds a tight race for Governor, but wide leads for the Republican nominees in other races.


Governor:

Kevin Stitt (R) - 46.6%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 44.2%
Chris Powell (L) - 3.2%
Undecided/not sure - 6.0%

By far the closest race, this also has a very low undecided number. Libertarian candidate Chris Powell may well play a key role in the outcome of the 2018 gubernatorial race, depending on who he draws more from.

Digging into the cross-tabs, Stitt wins 76% of Republicans while Edmondson gets 78% of Democrats. Stitt takes 14.9% of Democrat voters, while Edmondson snags 15.6% of Republicans. Edmondson beats Stitt among Independents 50.6% to 25.6%.

Stitt leads in the 1st District (by 9.7%), 2nd District (by 16.2%), and 4th District (by 6.7%), while Edmondson leads in the 3rd District (by 10.1%) and 5th District (by 12.1%).

Lieutenant Governor:

Matt Pinnell (R) - 49.1%
Anastasia Pittman (D) - 31.0%
Ivan Holmes (I) - 4.6%
Undecided/not sure - 15.3%

Matt Pinnell leads the race for Lieutenant Governor by 18.1%, over Democrat Anastasia Pittman and former Oklahoma Democratic Party chairman Ivan Holmes, who is running as an Independent.

State Auditor:

Cindy Byrd (R) - 56.3%
John Yeutter (L) - 17.3%
Undecided/not sure - 26.4%

While John Yeutter will likely set a new record for most Libertarian votes received (thanks to a head-to-head with the Republican nominee), he trails the GOP candidate by the largest margin on the ballot. At 39%, Cindy Byrd has the largest lead in this survey.

Attorney General:

Mike Hunter (R) - 52.1%
Mark Myles (D) - 34.2%
Undecided/not sure - 13.7%

On the ballot for the first time since he infamously lost to perennial candidate Jim Rogers in the 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Mark Myles trails Republican Mike Hunter by 17.9%.

State Treasurer:

Randy McDaniel (R) - 41.7%
Charles de Coune (I) - 20.3%
Undecided/not sure - 38.0%

In the other race with no Democratic candidate, State Rep. Randy McDaniel will have easy sailing to the State Treasurer's office.

State Superintendent:

Joy Hofmeister (R) - 50.6%
John Cox (D) - 31.3%
Larry Huff (I) - 9.3%
Undecided/not sure - 8.9%

In a rematch from 2014, Republican Joy Hofmeister leads by 19.3%. She defeated Cox in 2014 by 11.6%, with no Independent or third-party candidate in the mix.

Labor Commissioner:

Leslie Osborn (R) - 48.8%
Fred Dorrell (D) - 26.3%
Brandt Dismukes (I) - 6.2%
Undecided/not sure - 18.7%

Dorrell is the lowest-scoring Democrat in this poll, trailing by 22.5%, with an Independent also in the race.

Insurance Commissioner:

Glen Mulready (R) - 41.9%
Kimberly Fobbs (D) - 32.8%
Undecided/not sure - 25.3%

The closest race on the ballot, Mulready leads by 9.1%, but one-quarter of respondents are undecided.

Corporation Commissioner:

Bob Anthony (R) - 47.5%Ashley Nicole McCray (D) - 29.5%Jackie Short (I) - 8.5%Undecided/not sure - 14.5%

Bob Anthony, running for his final term in office, leads by 18%.

The scientific study was conducted September 5-10, 2018 with 407 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers. Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. 

The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.86 percent.

Harris leads Hern by 11% in new CD1 poll

In the latest poll of the 1st Congressional District GOP runoff, former Tulsa County District Attorney Tim Harris has a commanding lead.

Harris emerged from the primary with a 5% lead over second-place candidate Kevin Hern (27.48% to 22.68%). Most of the attention on the race was focused on the battle between Hern and Andy Coleman (who placed third), while - at least in my estimation - Harris was underestimated and slipped under the radar into the lead.

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 CD1 GOP Runoff Poll (link) 

811 likely Republican voters, conducted July 18th to 20th.
Overall MoE +/- 3.43%. 

• Tim Harris - 37.5% 
• Kevin Hern - 26.4% 
• Undecided - 36.1%

You can view the full crosstabs here.

Costello leads Labor Commissioner race in latest poll

COSTELLO DOMINATES LABOR COMMISSIONER RACE IN LATEST POLL

July 28, 2018 -- The latest polling on the Oklahoma Labor Commissioner race shows Cathy Costello with a commanding 10% lead over her primary runoff opponent.  The survey was conducted last week by Sooner Poll and News 9 among 483 registered Republican voters.

    “We found Cathy Costello’s platform of conservative values and limited government is resonating with Republican voters,” says Bill Shapard, CEO of SoonerPoll.  “Labor Commissioner is considered a down-ballot race so we still have quite a few undecided voters.  But that 10% lead will be extremely difficult for her opponent, Leslie Osborn, to overcome with just a month left in the campaign.  Costello is ahead in every demographic except voters between the ages of 25-34.  If the candidates evenly split the remaining undecided votes, Costello would win with 55%, which is considered a landslide victory.”

    The poll also shows Costello has the most support from Tulsa with a 15 point lead over Osborn and an 11 point lead among conservatives.

    SoonerPoll is Oklahoma’s only independent, non-partisan polling firm. The final numbers show Cathy Costello with 32%, Leslie Osborn with 22%, and 46% of GOP voters undecided.  The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.88%.

    Cathy Costello is a co-founder of several businesses, both domestic and international, and is a sought-after national speaker and advocate on issues of mental health.  She has been instrumental in passing major state and federal legislation to improve how employers address mental health needs in the workplace.

    The Republican primary runoff for Labor Commissioner is scheduled for August 28 and the general election will be held November 6, 2018.

    For more information on Cathy Costello's campaign for Oklahoma Labor Commissioner, visit her website at www.CostelloForOK.com.

Stitt and Cornett tied at 37.5% in latest poll

It's a dead heat in the GOP gubernatorial runoff

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma GOP Gubernatorial Poll (link) 

483 likely Oklahoma voters, conducted July 18th to 20th. Overall MoE +/- 4.46%. 

• Mick Cornett - 37.5%
• Kevin Stitt - 37.5%
• Undecided - 25.0%

You can view the full crosstabs here.


Other races polled:

Attorney General
Mike Hunter: 38.6%
Gentner Drummond: 29.1%
Undecided: 32.3%

State Superintendent
Joy Hofmeister: 42.9%
Linda Murphy: 30.1%
Undecided: 27.0%

Labor Commissioner
Cathy Costello: 31.8%
Leslie Osborn: 22.1%
Undecided: 46.1%

SoonerPoll on LtGov race: Murphy 7.2%, Pinnell 6.6%

Last night, numbers were released from a SoonerPoll survey conducted for KWTV (OKC's News9) and KOTV (Tulsa's News on 6) on the statewide primaries. Here are the GOP lieutenant governor's race numbers:

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma GOP LtGov Poll (PDF link) 

622 likely Oklahoma voters (321 Republicans), conducted in May [date not availavle]. Overall MoE +/- 3.93%. Numbers in parentheses are from April.

Dana Murphy - 7.2% (10.7%)
Matt Pinnell - 6.6% (5.3%)
Eddie Fields - 3.0% (2.1%)
Dominique Block - 0.9% (3.0%)
Undecided - 82.2% (78.8%)

You can view the full crosstabs here.

On the Democratic side of things, Anastasia Pittman got 12.3%, Ivan Holmes got 10.3%, and Anna Dearmore got 5.2%, while 72.3% were undecided.

Follow these links for the Gubernatorial and Attorney General numbers.

SoonerPoll on AG race: Drummond 26%, Hunter 9%

Last night, numbers were released from a SoonerPoll survey conducted for KWTV (OKC's News9) and KOTV (Tulsa's News on 6) on the attorney general race. Here are the GOP primary numbers:

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma GOP Attorney General Poll (PDF link) 

622 likely Oklahoma voters (321 Republicans), conducted in May [date not availavle]. Overall MoE +/- 3.93%. Numbers in parentheses are from April, brackets January, braces are from September.

Gentner Drummond - 25.9%
Mike Hunter - 9.4%
Angela Bonnila - 3.6%
Undecided - 61.2%

You can view the full crosstabs here.

Gubernatorial primary results are here; Lieutenant Governor are here.

SoonerPoll: Lamb 23.3%, Cornett 20.4%, Stitt 13.5%

Last night, numbers were released from a SoonerPoll survey conducted for KWTV (OKC's News9) and KOTV (Tulsa's News on 6) on the statewide primaries. Here are the GOP gubernatorial race numbers:

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma GOP Gubernatorial Poll (PDF link) 

622 likely Oklahoma voters (321 Republicans), conducted in May [date not availavle]. Overall MoE +/- 3.93%. Numbers in parentheses are from April, brackets January, braces are from September.

Todd Lamb - 23.3% (21.2%) [17.6%] {32%}
Mick Cornett - 20.4% (22%) [23.9%] {29%}
Kevin Stitt - 13.5% (7.8%) [3.4%] {not polled}
Gary Jones - 4.1% (2.6%) [3.4%] {"under 10%"}
Dan Fisher - 3.2%(3.7%) [4.0%] {"under 10%"}
Gary Richardson - 2.9% (7.2%) [9.0%] {"under 10%"}
Other candidate - 1.2%
Undecided - 31.3 (35.5%) [38.7%] {23%}

You can view the full crosstabs here.

On the Democratic side of things, Drew Edmondson got 43.5%, Connie Johnson 13.6%, and 42.9% were undecided.

Follow these links for the Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General numbers.

Poll: Cornett 22%, Lamb 21.2%, Stitt 7.8%

SoonerPoll conducted a survey recently for KWTV (OKC's News9) and KOTV (Tulsa's News on 6) on the teacher strike, and included questions about the gubernatorial race, state employee pay raises, arming teachers, and various education funding measures (including the CLO measure). Here are the GOP gubernatorial race numbers:

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma GOP Gubernatorial Poll (PDF link) 

557 likely Oklahoma voters (294 Republicans), conducted March 14-22. Overall MoE +/- 4.15%. Numbers in parentheses are from January, brackets are from September.

Mick Cornett - 22% (23.9%) [29%]
Todd Lamb - 21.2% (17.6%) (32%]
Kevin Stitt - 7.8% (3.4%) [not polled]
Gary Richardson - 7.2% (9.0%) ["under 10%"]
Dan Fisher - 3.7% (4.0%) ["under 10%"]
Gary Jones - 2.6% (3.4%) ["under 10%"]
Undecided - 35.5% (38.7%) [23%]


You can view the full crosstabs here.

SoonerPoll: Cornett 24%, Lamb 18%, Richardson 9%

Yesterday morning, Bill Shapard of SoonerPoll went on KFAQ's Pat Campbell Show to release the numbers from their latest GOP gubernatorial primary poll.

GOP Gubernatorial Primary (parentheses are results from September)
Mick Cornett - 23.9% (29%)
Todd Lamb - 17.6% (32%)
Gary Richardson - 9.0% ("under 10%")
Dan Fisher - 4.0% ("under 10%")
Gary Jones - 3.4% ("under 10%")
Kevin Stitt - 3.4% (not polled)
Undecided - 38.7% (23%)
MoE +/- 4.84%

There's more information on SoonerPoll.com, but no crosstabs have been posted.

Tidbits:

• Cornett's best showing is in the 5th District - almost 50%
• Lamb's best is the 3rd District - 27%
• Richardson's best is the 1st District - 15% (ahead of Cornett's 12%)
• Lamb's percentages were most consistent across the state

New Poll Shows Bi-Partisan Support to Halt Gas Tax and Public Employee Raises

AFP-OK Releases New Poll: Survey Shows Bi-Partisan Support to 

Halt Gas Tax and Public Employee Raises

Oklahomans are united behind belief that government should not raise taxes

Oklahoma City, OK – Americans for Prosperity-Oklahoma (AFP-OK), released the following response to a new poll released by SoonerPoll.com today showing Oklahomans are united in demanding that their legislature not raise taxes or increase public employee salaries.

AFP-OK’s state director, John Tidwell released the following statement: 

“This poll demonstrates that Oklahomans are frustrated by politicians who campaign as fiscal conservatives and then go to the capital to vote for $500 million in new taxes and more government.  Let’s hope this poll serves as a wake-up call to the legislature, which needs to stop rummaging through our wallets and instead start to cut wasteful spending.”

The SoonerPoll.com study shows Oklahomans expect a government that is limited in size and scope, and operates within its means and budget. This polling continues to show that a large majority of everyday Oklahomans believe that state government, much like the federal government, must live within its means.

Republican lawmakers should be aware of several important findings from today’s poll:

• 81% of Republican and Democrat voters believe that their taxes are either ‘too high’ or ‘about right.’
• 59% of self-described conservative voters OPPOSE a $1,000 pay raise for all state employees.
• 55% of Republican voters oppose the gas tax, while 44% of Democrats strongly oppose it.

“State lawmakers should be demanding that leadership immediately address legislation that seeks to reduce spending in responsible ways,” continued Tidwell.  “Our citizens should not have to bear the lasting burden of an increased gas tax only because state lawmakers have frittered away their opportunities to solve what they have termed a ‘crisis’.”

SoonerPoll: Lamb 32%, Cornett 29%, all others in single digits

Bill Shapard of SoonerPoll went on KFAQ's Pat Campbell Show yesterday morning, and mentioned some polling numbers from two surveys they ran in recent days. These figures had not previously been released publicly.

GOP Gubernatorial Primary
Todd Lamb 32%
Mick Cornett 29%
All others below 10%
MoE +/- 4.81%

GOP Lieutenant Governor's Primary
Dewey Bartlett 22% (not currently a candidate)
Dana Murphy 10%
Matt Pinnell 7%
Undecided 60%

You can hear Shapard's interview here. When more details of this survey are released, I will post them.

SoonerPoll finds rising support for Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform

State Sen. Kyle Loveless

SoonerPoll: Support for Civil Asset Forfeiture Reform on the rise

(August 24th, 2016)  New data from Sooner Poll shows more Oklahomans than ever want to see Civil Asset Forfeiture reform. Support for reform is up to 73.7% in 2016 compared to 69.9% in 2015.

"These numbers clearly show Oklahomans are ready for lawmakers to act on Civil Asset Forfeiture," says Bill Shapard, President of Sooner Poll.  "Despite overwhelming public support during the 2016 legislative session, for whatever reason, leadership decided to brush the issue aside.  But, when almost 3 out of 4 Oklahomans want to see this issue addressed, lawmakers really need to pay attention."

Sen. Kyle Loveless (R-Oklahoma City) has championed Civil Asset Forfeiture reform for more than a year and plans to re-introduce legislation in 2017.  Sen. Loveless has built a coalition spanning the political spectrum to push for substantive reform next year.

"The work to reform Oklahoma's Civil Asset Forfeiture system has always transcended partisan lines and this new poll only amplifies the call to end the practice of seizing money and property from Oklahomans who have not been convicted of any crime," says Ryan Kiesel, Executive Director of the ACLU of Oklahoma.  "Oklahomans across the political spectrum understand that empowering the government to take a person's property or money with very little, if any, actual cause is an affront to our fundamental rights and freedoms."

Senator Loveless believes the burden now lies solely on the legislature to fix a broken system.

"This is not a law enforcement issue, this is an issue where government is wrong to take people's property without proving anything in court," Sen. Loveless says.  "Oklahomans of all walks of life, metro area to the smallest town, blue or red, left or right, regardless of where they come from Oklahomans want serious forfeiture reform."

Senator Loveless has requested an interim study on Civil Asset Forfeiture.  A date for that hearing has not yet been scheduled.

The poll surveyed 398 Oklahoma voters from July 20-25th and has a margin of error of 4.91%. The questions and results are posted at www.SoonerPoll.com.

SoonerPoll: Trump 30%, Cruz 25%, Rubio 21% in Oklahoma

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (PDF link)

414 likely voters registered Republican, conducted Feb. 6th to 9th.

MoE +/- 4.81%. Numbers in parentheses are from Jan. 17th-19th survey (PDF).

Donald Trump - 30.4% (35.1%)   -4.7%
Ted Cruz - 25.4% (25.0%)   +0.4%
Marco Rubio - 21.0% (9.6%)   +11.4%
Ben Carson - 5.6% (7.8%)   -2.2%
Jeb Bush - 4.6% (4.4%)   +0.2%
John Kasich - 2.9%
Carly Fiorina - 1.5% (1.3%)   +0.2%
Chris Christie - 1.4% (3.1%)   -1.7%
Jim Gilmore - 0.0%
Unsure/Other - 7.7% (7.0%)   +0.7%

SoonerPoll: Trump loses steam, Cruz remains steady, Rubio rockets to a close third

The latest SoonerPoll tracking of the Republican presidential candidates continues to show Trump leading, but the effect of those dropping out of the race and the decline of others may spell problems for him through Super Tuesday.

Donald Trump seems to be stuck.  While currently at 30 percent of the Republican electorate, he has not been able to break 35 percent which has been his high among the last four SoonerPolls since September of last year.

“Early on, Trump’s been able to channel the anger and frustration felt among Republicans toward President Obama,” said Bill Shapard, founder of the SoonerPoll, “but anger and frustration can only take you so far in a presidential race.”

Link: Toplines and Crosstabs

The poll also reflects the impact of two Republican candidates who have dropped out since the last poll was taken, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee.

Those undecided have increased three percent since the last poll, but it should be noted that the 7.7 percent of Republicans who are now undecided is extremely low compared to 28 percent undecided in the Democratic ballot.

The greatest change in this poll is Marco Rubio, who rocketed to 21 percent from 10 percent just a week and half ago after initially falling seven points since November.  Rubio has been performing well in national polling as well and went under attack at Saturday’s debate in New Hampshire.  It should be noted that this poll started fielding on Saturday before the debate and ended Monday night, so it includes support of Rubio before and after his much criticized debate performance.  Some national polling since the debate has shown some negative impact while other polls have not.

Ted Cruz had been on a steady climb since the first poll last November and remains at 25 percent since the last poll a week and half ago.

Ben Carson continued his decline, falling another 2 points since the last poll where he experienced a 10-point fall from the November poll, and a combined drop of nearly 17 points since last September.

Liberal and moderate Republicans, which only makes up one-in-four Republicans, favor Trump while all three top vote-getters almost evenly split the conservative Republican vote, which is 70 percent of the electorate.

None of the candidates have an edge among male or female voters, but Trump leads among Boomers and Seniors — the largest voting block — by four to nine points which is helping him maintain his lead.

“While there is a lot movement in this poll, Trump, who remains the front-runner with a small lead now, is not benefiting from it,” said Shapard.  “The lose of two more candidates and Carson’s decline… these votes don’t appear to be going to Trump.”

Shapard went on to speculate that as the field narrows the consolidation could push one or two other candidates beyond Trump, who has only been able to remain the front-runner because of a large field of candidates.

Trump leads Cruz 32% to 28% in new Oklahoma poll

A brand new (as in, started in October) website casting itself as a polling organization has a new set of polls for the Republican and Democratic primaries in Oklahoma. Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt -- more on that below the report.

OvertimePolitics.com Oklahoma Republican Primary Poll ­ Dec 26­-29, 2015

Donald Trump holds a slight 4 point lead over Ted Cruz in Oklahoma ­ 32%-28%

Ted Cruz has narrowed the gap between himself and Donald Trump nationally, and it appears as though he is doing so in Oklahoma as well. Though Oklahoma does border Texas, Trump’s support is not quite as strong as he would probably like in the Sooner State.

In a distant 3rd place, in danger of missing the 15% threshold for any delegates, is Marco Rubio at 14%. Beyond that, Ben Carson has seemingly disappeared from the scene with 6%. The “other” category polled better than all but the top 4 candidates, while 6% of voters still do not know who they will vote for.

This poll was conducted by telephone to include 398 likely Republican Primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.2%. Phone numbers were selected at random through public phone records and cell phone lists.

Likely Republican Primary voters were asked the following question:

1. Who do you plan on voting for in the 2016 Republican Primary? Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, a candidate I did not name, or are you undecided?

Results:
Donald Trump ­ 127 ­ 32%
Ted Cruz ­ 111 ­ 28%
Marco Rubio ­ 56 ­ 14%
Ben Carson ­ 24 ­ 6%
Jeb Bush ­ 15 ­ 4%
Rand Paul ­ 8 ­ 2%
Chris Christie ­ 7 ­ 2%
Carly Fiorina ­ 5 ­ 1%
John Kasich ­ 3%
Other ­ 17 ­ 4%
Undecided ­ 25 ­ 6%

Like I said earlier, OvertimePolitics appears to have been started in October, so they have zero track record on polling accuracy. Furthermore, their methodology appears to be very unorthodox and unscientific, with no demographic sorting or weighting. It's simply the first X number of people who answer the phone. In that case, the margin of error figure they give is pretty much just made up.

That said, the most recent Oklahoma poll by an established and respected organization (SoonerPoll, Nov. 15th) had Trump leading Cruz 27.1% to 18.3%. SoonerPoll also had the same top four as OvertimePolitics - although at the time SoonerPoll had Rubio in fourth (16.3%) and Carson in third (17.5%).

So, once again, take this particular polling organization with a big grain of salt. On the Democratic side of things, they have Clinton leading Sanders in Oklahoma by 51% to 41%.

SoonerPoll: Trump leads in OK, but Cruz and Rubio surge

SoonerPoll, in conjunction with News 9/News on 6, today released a new Oklahoma presidential primary survey showing significant changes from their last report in September.

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (PDF link)
389 likely voters registered Republican, conducted Nov. 12th-15th.
MoE +/-5.1%. Numbers in parentheses are from Sept. 1st-15th survey.

Donald Trump - 27.1% (30.8%)   -3.7%
Ted Cruz - 18.3% (6.5%)   +11.8%
Ben Carson - 17.5% (22.5%)   -5.0%
Marco Rubio - 16.3% (4.1%)   +12.2%
Mike Huckabee - 4.3% (5.0%)   -0.7%
Carly Fiorina - 2.3% (8.3%)   -6.0%
Jeb Bush - 2.2% (6.2%)   -4.0%
Rand Paul - 2.2% (0.9%)   +1.3%
John Kasich - 0.5% (2.2%)   -1.7%
Other - 2.5% (3.1%)   -0.6%
Unsure - 6.7% (10.4%)   -3.7%

Cruz and Rubio both surged around 12%, while most other candidates fell 2-6 points. Trump's lead has been cut to single digits (8.8%), and there's essentially a three-way tie for second.

The bottom ten candidates combined (14%) don't even beat the fourth place candidate (Rubio at 16.3%). The presidential primary on the GOP side is swiftly becoming a four-man race.

Trump 30.8%, Carson 22.5%, Fiorina 8.3% in Oklahoma poll

SoonerPoll released the results of their latest quarterly poll this evening, showing Donald Trump and Ben Carson with commanding leads over the rest of the GOP field. This is the first Oklahoma primary poll that I'm aware of.

SoonerPoll Oklahoma Republican Primary Survey (link)

Donald Trump - 30.8%
Ben Carson - 22.5%
Carly Fiorina - 8.3%
Ted Cruz - 6.5%
Jeb Bush - 6.2%
Mike Huckabee - 5.0%
Marco Rubio - 4.1%
John Kasich - 2.2%
Scott Walker - 1.6%
Chris Christie - 1.0%
Rand Paul - 0.9%
Rick Perry - 0.5%
Jindal/Gilmore/Graham/Pataki/Santorum- 0%
Undecided - 10.4%

The poll of 320 likely Republican voters in Oklahoma was conducted September 1-15, 2015 from a dual frame of 82 cellphone and 238 landline users. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.48 percentage points.

Interestingly, Rick Santorum (who won the 2012 primary here) didn't receive a single vote. Rick Perry suspended his campaign during the middle of this survey.

SoonerPoll didn't release crosstabs of the poll, but in their article mentioned that Trump's lead came from "somewhat conservative", "moderate" and "liberal" Republican primary voters (led by over 10% in each), while he was in a statistical tie with Carson among "very conservative" voters (28.8% to 27.2%).

Carson, Walker, Cruz top SRLC straw poll

SoonerPoll conducted the straw poll held at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this weekend, and here are the results:

1. Ben Carson - 25.4%
2. Scott Walker - 20.5%
3. Ted Cruz - 16.6%
4. Chris Christie - 5.3%
5. Rick Perry - 5.0%
6. Jeb Bush - 4.9%
7. Rand Paul - 4.1%
8. Marco Rubio - 4.1%
9. Bobby Jindal - 4.1%
10. Carly Fiorina - 2.7%
11. Mike Huckabee - 2.7%
12. Rick Santorum - 1.9%
13. Donald Trump - 1.2%
14. Mark Everson - 0.8%
15. Lindsey Graham - 0.5%
16. John Kasich - 0.2%
17. Jim Gilmore - 0.0%

958 attendees cast ballots, with the bulk (713) coming from Oklahoma, followed by Texas (78) and Arkansas (58). 

I found some crosstabs here (pdf), which contain a lot of interesting information. Here are two of the other questions from the straw poll:

For these three issues, here are the leaders:

National Security: Walker and Carson (20.7%), Cruz (18.3%)
Economic: Walker (25.3%), Carson (15.5%), Cruz (15.2%)
Social: Carson (25.2%), Cruz (24.4%), Walker (18.1%)

Here are the leaders for each group:

Tea Party: Cruz (34.2%), Walker (22.6%), Carson (15.8%)

Libertarian: Paul (23.7%), Cruz (22.7%), Walker (18.6%)

Right-to-Life: Cruz (23.2%), Walker (19.2%), Carson (17.5%)

NRA/GOA: Cruz (22.8%), Walker (21.3%), Carson (15.3%)

FRC/CC: Walker (23.5%), Cruz (21.1%), Carson (20.6%)

Eagle Forum/CWA: Cruz (24.5%), Walker (22.7%), Carson (13.6%)

US Chamber: Walker (29.4%), Bush (17.6%), Perry (9.4%)

ATR: Walker (24.3%), Cruz (20.5%), Carson (17.6%)

Among Oklahoma voters, here are the top five:

1. Walker - 23.3%
2. Carson - 21.6%
3. Cruz - 16.0%
4. Christie - 6.2%
5. Bush - 5.3%

Again, if you want to look through the crosstabs, here is the PDF link I found.