Showing posts with label Ben Carson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ben Carson. Show all posts

Saturday, January 11, 2020

State Superintendent Hofmeister refuses to discuss LGBT newsletter at public forum


State superintendent refuses to discuss LGBT newsletter at public forum
by Ray Carter, Director, Center for Independent Journalism 

(January 8th, 2020; link) State Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister is refusing to meet in public with a state lawmaker and citizens concerned about an August Oklahoma State Department of Education (OSDE) newsletter that focused on “best practices” to create a “safe and valued climate for LGBT students.”

Among other things, the newsletter recommended that Oklahoma schools allow students to select bathrooms based on gender identity rather than biological gender and informed school officials they should “never reveal” a student’s sexual orientation or gender identity without the student’s permission “even to the student’s family.”

Rep. Justin Humphrey, R-Lane, asked Hofmeister and department staff to attend a Jan. 14 meeting in the House chamber of the state Capitol. Humphrey said he requested that space to accommodate an anticipated high number of attendees. He said the meeting was intended to allow department officials to discuss why the material, which many perceived as a mandate, was included in an agency newsletter sent to school districts.

However, in a letter of response to Humphrey, Hofmeister wrote that the lawmaker’s “intent is clear” and accused Humphrey of misrepresenting the purpose of the agency newsletter and trying to “turn a private meeting into what amounts to a public circus based on the fabrication that the State Department of Education is promoting any ‘agenda’ beyond keeping children safe at school.”

Hofmeister said she would only meet with Humphrey and pastors from his community “at my office.”

One of those who hoped Hofmeister would agree to a public meeting was Bill Ledbetter, senior pastor at Fairview Baptist Church in Durant and president of the ministry “Lighthouse America,” which describes its mission as “engaging American culture with Biblical truth while endeavoring to preserve and reclaim America’s Christian and Constitutional Heritage.”

Ledbetter said he and other religious leaders have “concern and love” for LGBT individuals, but also oppose government entities imposing mandates that would “validate” what many Oklahomans consider immoral behavior based on their religious beliefs.

“You cannot begin to insert immoral precepts into our schools, our systems of government,” Ledbetter said.

In 2016, under the Obama administration, federal agencies notified schools they would be violating federal law if they did not allow students to use the bathroom or locker room of their choice based on gender identity, rather than biological sex.  Due to a lawsuit, a court subsequently issued a nationwide injunction on enforcement of that directive. By February 2017 the Trump administration rescinded the guidance document.

Currently, there are no federal or state mandates that require schools to have a specific bathroom policy for transgender students. Schools are allowed to determine those policies at the local level.

In her letter to Humphrey, Hofmeister described the agency newsletter, which was sent to Title IX administrators in Oklahoma schools, as a document that simply “provides information and various perspectives regarding the federal civil rights law.”

“We conceded that the newsletter should have made clear that the recommendations were proposed by a non-governmental entity and not the OSDE,” Hofmeister wrote (underscore in original). “The material in question was in no way a directive nor an endorsement, but I will add that the OSDE will never shirk its responsibility to help ensure every student can attend school feeling safe, secure and ready to learn.”

When asked about the source of the agency newsletter’s content, an OSDE spokesperson recently confirmed that the department’s LGBT material came from the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), although attribution was not originally included. The SPLC has long been criticized for labeling religiously conservative organizations as “hate groups” comparable to the Ku Klux Klan.

The SPLC once described Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, a well-regarded black surgeon, as an extremist. The SPLC later withdrew that designation, but still insisted Carson “has, in fact, made a number of statements that express views that we believe most people would conclude are extreme.”

Among Carson’s views cited as extreme by the SPLC was the statement, “Marriage is between a man and a woman.” The SPLC also cited Carson’s observation that Judeo-Christian faith and strong families are “things have been systematically attacked over the last several decades” as an example of extremism, as well as Carson’s belief that because “people did not oppose a progressively overreaching government” when the Nazi Party controlled Germany that “the entire world suffered a great Holocaust.”

In 2012, liberal columnist Dana Milbank criticized the SPLC for labeling the Family Research Council as a “hate group,” writing it was “reckless in labeling as a ‘hate group’ a policy shop that advocates for a full range of conservative Christian positions, on issues from stem cells to euthanasia.” Milbank, a supporter of LGBT causes, said it was “absurd” for the SPLC to lump the Family Research Council “in the same category as Aryan Nations, Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, Stormfront and the Westboro Baptist Church.”

A former employee of the SPLC has described the group as “a highly profitable scam.”

Given the group’s notoriety, Humphrey said Hofmeister and OSDE officials need to explain why the agency chose to distribute material from a controversial organization like the Southern Poverty Law Center. He said lawmakers and citizens deserve to know who authorized use of SPLC materials in state communications and whether any specific rules or procedures are in place to guide how and when communications from third-party special-interest groups are republished and distributed by the Oklahoma State Department of Education.

“How do you pick which group you’re going to promote?” Humphrey asked.

He also wants to know how many documented LGBT abuse cases have been reported in Oklahoma public schools in the last three calendar years.

A 2017 report by The Williams Institute at the UCLA School of Law estimated that 2,100 Oklahoma youth age 13 to 18 identify as transgender, representing just 0.83 percent of all Oklahoma youth in that age range. Oklahoma public schools have 703,650 students enrolled in pre-K through 12th grade for the 2019-20 school year, according to state figures.

While the department newsletter is a relatively rare instance in which Oklahoma government resources have been used to advocate for policies regarding transgender issues in schools, such stances have been embraced by the state’s major teachers union, the Oklahoma Education Association.

In July, more than 60 OEA delegates participated in the National Education Association’s Representative Assembly. Among the new business items gaining approval from attendees was a resolution that committed the NEA and its state affiliates (such as the OEA) to “organize and mobilize in support of the Equality Act,” declaring it important to increase “awareness of the importance of passing non-discrimination protections based on sexual orientation or gender identity.”

Under the provisions of the “Equality Act,” the National Center for Transgender Equality notes that “everyone must be able to use facilities consistent with their gender identity” at all entities covered by the proposed law.

Ledbetter said Oklahomans deserve to learn how state education officials are developing school policy and directing the use of taxpayer resources—and that those answers should be provided in public.

“The fact that Mrs. Hofmeister is not showing up, frankly, I’m disappointed,” Ledbetter said. “I think it’s time to be accountable to the people—all the people. This is an important thing.”

Originally posted by Ray Carter, Director of the Center for Independent Journalism.

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Trump/Pence officially becomes GOP ticket


Donald Trump is now the Republican nominee for President. Here's the official vote tally from earlier this evening at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland:

Donald Trump - 1,725
Ted Cruz - 475
John Kasich - 120
Marco Rubio - 114
Ben Carson - 7
Jeb Bush - 3
Rand Paul - 2

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence was nominated for Vice President by a voice vote.

Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Cruz wins Oklahoma amid record turnout; results by Congressional District


Ted Cruz surged back to win Oklahoma's presidential primary last night. Cruz greatly over-performing polling averages, which had Trump leading by 11.4% (at 32.7%), Rubio in second (21.3%) and Cruz in third (20.3%). Instead, Cruz took 34.37%, Trump collapsed to 28.32% and Rubio came in with 26.02%. The public polling was either total junk, or Cruz made a huge last-minute surge -- either or both may be true.

According to the Oklahoma State Election Board, the vote total was a record setter. 795,096 total votes were cast, breaking the Presidential Primary record of 752,261 in 2008. In addition, the GOP total of 459,542 votes beat the previous single-party record the Democrats set in 2008 of 417,207.

Here are the Republican results by Congressional District; Cruz won all but the 5th District, which went to Rubio.

1st Congressional District

Cruz - 33.14%
Rubio - 28.22%
Trump - 27.25%
Carson - 5.66%
Kasich - 4.36%
Bush - 0.43%
Paul - 0.34%
Huckabee - 0.22%
Fiorina - 0.14%
Christie - 0.11%
Santorum - 0.09%
Graham - 0.05%

2nd Congressional District

Cruz - 34.98%
Trump - 33.18%
Rubio - 20.67%
Carson - 7.22%
Kasich - 2.55%
Huckabee - 0.45%
Bush - 0.35%
Paul - 0.30%
Christie - 0.11%
Fiorina - 0.11%
Santorum - 0.07%
Graham - 0.05%

3rd Congressional District

Cruz - 36.08%
Trump - 29.38%
Rubio - 23.53%
Carson - 6.54%
Kasich - 2.85%
Bush - 0.53%
Huckabee - 0.36%
Paul - 0.35%
Christie - 0.13%
Fiorina - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.07%
Graham - 0.05%

4th Congressional District

Cruz - 37.05%
Trump - 28.26%
Rubio - 23.42%
Carson - 6.38%
Kasich - 3.37%
Bush - 0.46%
Paul - 0.44%
Huckabee - 0.26%
Fiorina - 0.12%
Christie - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.08%
Graham - 0.04%

5th Congressional District

Rubio - 32.35%
Cruz - 30.84%
Trump - 25.19%
Carson - 5.70%
Kasich - 4.44%
Bush - 0.48%
Paul - 0.37%
Huckabee - 0.20%
Fiorina - 0.16%
Christie - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.09%
Graham - 0.06%

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Oklahoman Poll: Trump 29%, Rubio 21%, Cruz 20%, 18% undecided

A new poll by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (commissioned by the Daily Oklahoman) finds Donald Trump continuing to hold a lead in Oklahoma, ahead of next week's primary.
The Oklahoma/Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates
400 likely Republican voters, conducted Feb. 22nd-23rd, MoE +/- 4.9%

Donald Trump - 29%
Marco Rubio - 21%
Ted Cruz - 20%
Ben Carson - 6%
John Kasich - 5%
Undecided - 18%
Other - 2%

18% undecided is a very large amount for this late in the game. For comparison, the most recent Oklahoma poll done by SoonerPoll had 7.7% undecided. Trump, Rubio and Cruz are making stops in Oklahoma between now and Sunday, each hoping to make tip the state into their win column on Super Tuesday.

Saturday, February 06, 2016

Ted Cruz wins Tulsa GOP and Muskogee GOP straw polls


Texas Senator Ted Cruz won presidential primary straw polls held at both the Tulsa County Republican Party precinct meetings and the Muskogee County Republican Party precinct meetings.

Tulsa County GOP Straw Poll (Thursday, February 4th - 600 votes cast):
  • Ted Cruz - 220 (36.7%)
  • Donald Trump - 173 (28.8%)
  • Marco Rubio - 103 (17.2%)
  • Ben Carson - 65 (10.8%)
  • Carly Fiorina - 10 (1.7%)
  • John Kasich - 10 (1.7%)
  • Jeb Bush - 9 (1.5%)
  • Chris Christie - 6 (1.0%)
  • Rand Paul - 3 (0.5%)
  • Mike Huckabee - 1 (0.2%)
Muskogee County GOP Straw Poll (Saturday, February 6th - 30 votes cast):
  • Ted Cruz - 12 (40.0%)
  • Marco Rubio - 9 (30.0%)
  • Ben Carson - 4 (13.3%)
  • Donald Trump - 2 (6.7%)
  • Jeb Bush - 1 (3.3%)
  • Carly Fiorina - 1 (3.3%)
  • Undecided - 1 (3.3%)

Friday, January 15, 2016

Fox Business GOP Debate thoughts


As I have "poor man TV" (aka over-the-air broadcast), I watched the GOP debate last night online. Here are some of my thoughts.

Ranking/grade

  • 1-T: Cruz (A) and Rubio (A)
  • 2: Trump (B-)
  • 3. Christie (B-)
  • 4. Bush (C)
  • 5. Kasich (C)
  • 6. Carson (D)

For the first two-thirds of the debate, I thought Ted Cruz was winning big. He obliterated Trump on the "birther" question - the first candidate to clearly and thoroughly beat Trump in an exchange so far this election cycle. He failed to get time to respond to Marco Rubio's late shotgun blast, and that took wind out of his sails.

Rubio had some good moments early, but seemed to flail in the middle of the debate. He lost his exchange with Christie, but can take consolation  in the fact that Christie pretty much lied through his teeth on everything in that back-and-forth. He finished with a late but very strong attack on Cruz.

I think the debate was a Cruz-Rubio tie, possibly slight edge to Cruz.

Donald Trump exceeded my expectations. He had a masterful reply to the "angry" question, and had the best possible delivery of his "New York values" rebuttal. This was by far his best debate -- in fact, he continues to improve debate after debate.

Chris Christie was strong early, but as I mentioned above, blatantly lied about his record in the exchange with Rubio. He also has this terrible habit of interrupting substantive policy discussions with belittling comments about "the Senate floor", and "people don't care about this". Um, excuse me, but some people want to actually find out.

Jeb Bush was typical Jeb - bumbling and stumbling. I can't for the life of me figure out why he is so awful at speaking. He trips over words, sounds and looks awkward, and otherwise acts as if he's never done public speaking in his life. He'll get going on an intelligent and well-stated point, only to stumble through the ending. While he didn't have a disastrous debate, he needed an excellent performance, and didn't get close to it.

John Kasich was more coherent in this debate, and unlike every time before this sounded somewhat conservative at times. One of his (many) problems is that he constantly brings up how long he's been in politics (i.e. in Washington "during the Cold War"... which is an eternity ago in today's political world). He's probably the most tone-deaf candidate this cycle. This time, he managed to avoid last place.

Ben Carson bombed. Debates are not his strong point to begin with. He seemed caught off-guard by several questions, almost as if he was daydreaming. He had one or two good answers, but most of his responses were rambling. Especially on foreign policy, he sounded like he was reciting facts that he recently learned... but that everybody else knew already (in this debate, it was EMPs, dirty bombs, and cyber attacks). His campaign is floundering, and the reasons for his campaign to continue are dwindling fast.

Those are my thoughts. Leave a comment with yours.

Monday, January 11, 2016

Seven qualify for Fox Business debate; Paul, Fiorina demoted


Thursday's Republican presidential debate on the Fox Business Channel will be the smallest debate of the 2016 cycle for the GOP, as only 7 candidates made the cut.

Candidates qualified for the debate in one of two ways: be in the top six nationally in an average of the most recent live phone surveys, or be in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush all made it in by being in the top six nationally, while John Kasich got in by being in the top five in New Hampshire.

Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina, both present in the last debates, polled too low to make it in through either method. They will join Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the "undercard" debate, although Paul has said he will skip the junior debate altogether, as his "first tier campaign" deserves the "first tier debate".

Saturday, January 02, 2016

Trump leads Cruz 32% to 28% in new Oklahoma poll


A brand new (as in, started in October) website casting itself as a polling organization has a new set of polls for the Republican and Democratic primaries in Oklahoma. Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt -- more on that below the report.

OvertimePolitics.com Oklahoma Republican Primary Poll ­ Dec 26­-29, 2015
Donald Trump holds a slight 4 point lead over Ted Cruz in Oklahoma ­ 32%-28%

Ted Cruz has narrowed the gap between himself and Donald Trump nationally, and it appears as though he is doing so in Oklahoma as well. Though Oklahoma does border Texas, Trump’s support is not quite as strong as he would probably like in the Sooner State.

In a distant 3rd place, in danger of missing the 15% threshold for any delegates, is Marco Rubio at 14%. Beyond that, Ben Carson has seemingly disappeared from the scene with 6%. The “other” category polled better than all but the top 4 candidates, while 6% of voters still do not know who they will vote for.

This poll was conducted by telephone to include 398 likely Republican Primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.2%. Phone numbers were selected at random through public phone records and cell phone lists.

Likely Republican Primary voters were asked the following question:

1. Who do you plan on voting for in the 2016 Republican Primary? Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, a candidate I did not name, or are you undecided?

Results:
Donald Trump ­ 127 ­ 32%
Ted Cruz ­ 111 ­ 28%
Marco Rubio ­ 56 ­ 14%
Ben Carson ­ 24 ­ 6%
Jeb Bush ­ 15 ­ 4%
Rand Paul ­ 8 ­ 2%
Chris Christie ­ 7 ­ 2%
Carly Fiorina ­ 5 ­ 1%
John Kasich ­ 3%
Other ­ 17 ­ 4%
Undecided ­ 25 ­ 6%

Like I said earlier, OvertimePolitics appears to have been started in October, so they have zero track record on polling accuracy. Furthermore, their methodology appears to be very unorthodox and unscientific, with no demographic sorting or weighting. It's simply the first X number of people who answer the phone. In that case, the margin of error figure they give is pretty much just made up.

That said, the most recent Oklahoma poll by an established and respected organization (SoonerPoll, Nov. 15th) had Trump leading Cruz 27.1% to 18.3%. SoonerPoll also had the same top four as OvertimePolitics - although at the time SoonerPoll had Rubio in fourth (16.3%) and Carson in third (17.5%).

So, once again, take this particular polling organization with a big grain of salt. On the Democratic side of things, they have Clinton leading Sanders in Oklahoma by 51% to 41%.

Saturday, December 12, 2015

12 Republicans, 7 Democrats file for Oklahoma's presidential primary


The filing period for Oklahoma's March 1st, 2016 Presidential Preferential Primary was held Monday through Wednesday; a total of 19 candidates filed under the two main parties recognized in Oklahoma (the third, 'Americans Elect', has a grand total of nine (9) voters statewide).

Here are the candidates that will be on the primary ballot:

Democratic Primary Candidates

  • Hillary Clinton (NY)
  • Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente (CA)
  • Keith Judd (TX)
  • Star Locke (TX)
  • Martin J. O'Malley (MD)
  • Bernie Sanders (VT)
  • Micahel A. Steinberg (FL)

Republican Primary Candidates

  • Jeb Bush (FL)
  • Ben Carson (FL)
  • Chris Christie (NJ)
  • Ted Cruz (TX)
  • Carly Fiorina (VA)
  • Lindsey Graham (SC)
  • Mike Huckabee (FL)
  • John R. Kasich (OH)
  • Rand Paul (KY)
  • Marco Rubio (FL)
  • Rick Santorum (VA)
  • Donald J. Trump (NY)


Thursday, November 19, 2015

SoonerPoll: Trump leads in OK, but Cruz and Rubio surge


SoonerPoll, in conjunction with News 9/News on 6, today released a new Oklahoma presidential primary survey showing significant changes from their last report in September.

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (PDF link)
389 likely voters registered Republican, conducted Nov. 12th-15th.
MoE +/-5.1%. Numbers in parentheses are from Sept. 1st-15th survey.

Donald Trump - 27.1% (30.8%)   -3.7%
Ted Cruz - 18.3% (6.5%)   +11.8%
Ben Carson - 17.5% (22.5%)   -5.0%
Marco Rubio - 16.3% (4.1%)   +12.2%
Mike Huckabee - 4.3% (5.0%)   -0.7%
Carly Fiorina - 2.3% (8.3%)   -6.0%
Jeb Bush - 2.2% (6.2%)   -4.0%
Rand Paul - 2.2% (0.9%)   +1.3%
John Kasich - 0.5% (2.2%)   -1.7%
Other - 2.5% (3.1%)   -0.6%
Unsure - 6.7% (10.4%)   -3.7%

Cruz and Rubio both surged around 12%, while most other candidates fell 2-6 points. Trump's lead has been cut to single digits (8.8%), and there's essentially a three-way tie for second.

The bottom ten candidates combined (14%) don't even beat the fourth place candidate (Rubio at 16.3%). The presidential primary on the GOP side is swiftly becoming a four-man race.

Sunday, October 25, 2015

Carson 25%, Trump 19%, Rubio 9%, Cruz 7% in OK poll

A new presidential primary poll finds GOP candidate Ben Carson now beating Donald Trump in Oklahoma. Commissioned by The Oklahoman newspaper, the survey shows some significant movement from the last one released by SoonerPoll in September.

Oklahoma Republican Primary Survey (link)
The Oklahoman/Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates500 registered Republicans in Oklahoma, Oct. 19th-22nd, MoE +/- 4.3%
Ben Carson - 25%
Donald Trump - 19%
Marco Rubio - 9%
Ted Cruz - 7%
Mike Huckabee - 4%
Jeb Bush - 3%
Carly Fiorina - 2%
John Kasich - 2%
Chris Christie - 1%
Rand Paul - 1%
Santorum/Pataki/Jindal/Graham - 0%
Undecided - 27%
Carson stopped in Oklahoma this past week for some book signings, and now leads Trump in recent Iowa polling.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Scott Walker drops out of Presidential race


Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially suspended his presidential campaign this evening, ending a once-promising run for the White House that has fizzled out over the past few weeks.

Walker briefly led the GOP field in polling back in March, and was second to Jeb Bush until Donald Trump entered the race. Trump joining the race hurt Walker more than any other candidate.

Here's Walker's full statement:
As a kid, I was drawn to Ronald Reagan because he was a Republican and a conservative. But most of all, I admired him because of his eternal optimism in the American people.

That thought came into my head when we were all standing at the Reagan Library last Wednesday. President Reagan was good for America because he was an optimist.

Sadly, the debate taking place in the Republican party today is not focused on that optimistic view of America. Instead, it has drifted into personal attacks.

In the end, I believe that voters want to be for something and not against someone. Instead of talking about how bad things are, we want to hear about how we can make them better for everyone.

We need to get back to the basics of our party:

We are the party that believes that people create jobs – not the government – and the best way to grow the economy is to get the government out of the way and build it from the ground up.

We are the party that believes that the way to measure success in government is by how many people are no longer dependent on the government – because we ultimately believe in the dignity of work.

We are the party that believes that a strong military leads to peace through strength and that will protect our children and future generations – we believe that good will triumph over evil.

We are the party that believes in the American people – and not the federal government.

These ideas will help us win the election next fall and – more importantly – these ideas will help make our country great again.

To refocus the debate will require leadership. While I was sitting in church yesterday, the pastor’s words reminded me that the Bible is full of stories about people who were called to be leaders in unusual ways.

Today, I believe that I am being called to lead by helping to clear the race so that a positive conservative message can rise to the top of the field. With that in mind, I will suspend my campaign immediately.

I encourage other Republican presidential candidates to consider doing the same so the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive conservative alternative to the current frontrunner. This is fundamentally important to the future of the party and – ultimately – to the future of our country.

This is a difficult decision as so many wonderful people stepped up to support our efforts. Tonette and I are so very thankful for the many outstanding volunteers and the excellent staff who helped us throughout the campaign. You have become like family to us.

And speaking of family, I want to personally thank my wife Tonette – who has been a rock – as well as our amazing sons Matt and Alex. I thank my parents, my brother David and his family – and all of our other family and friends for their love and support.

Most of all, I want to thank God for His abundant grace. Win or lose, it is more than enough for any of us.

Thank you.

I'm disappointed to see Walker go (I had been leaning his direction), but I definitely agree with his sentiment that the field needs to start clearing. There are too many candidates, and we need to start coalescing around someone that can beat both Jeb Bush and Donald Trump.

We now have 15 Republicans running for President (links go to the candidate's official website): Jeb BushBen CarsonChris ChristieTed CruzCarly Fiorina, Jim GilmoreLindsey GrahamMike HuckabeeBobby Jindal, John KasichGeorge PatakiRand PaulMarco RubioRick Santorum, and Donald Trump.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Trump 30.8%, Carson 22.5%, Fiorina 8.3% in Oklahoma poll


SoonerPoll released the results of their latest quarterly poll this evening, showing Donald Trump and Ben Carson with commanding leads over the rest of the GOP field. This is the first Oklahoma primary poll that I'm aware of.

Donald Trump - 30.8%
Ben Carson - 22.5%
Carly Fiorina - 8.3%
Ted Cruz - 6.5%
Jeb Bush - 6.2%
Mike Huckabee - 5.0%
Marco Rubio - 4.1%
John Kasich - 2.2%
Scott Walker - 1.6%
Chris Christie - 1.0%
Rand Paul - 0.9%
Rick Perry - 0.5%
Jindal/Gilmore/Graham/Pataki/Santorum- 0%
Undecided - 10.4%

The poll of 320 likely Republican voters in Oklahoma was conducted September 1-15, 2015 from a dual frame of 82 cellphone and 238 landline users. The margin of error is plus or minus 5.48 percentage points.
Interestingly, Rick Santorum (who won the 2012 primary here) didn't receive a single vote. Rick Perry suspended his campaign during the middle of this survey.

SoonerPoll didn't release crosstabs of the poll, but in their article mentioned that Trump's lead came from "somewhat conservative", "moderate" and "liberal" Republican primary voters (led by over 10% in each), while he was in a statistical tie with Carson among "very conservative" voters (28.8% to 27.2%).

Saturday, August 08, 2015

My thoughts on the first GOP debate


Thursday night's debate was a record setter, drawing an estimated viewing audience of over 24 million people. That makes it "the highest-rated primary debate in television history as well as the highest-rated non-sports cable telecast of all time in total viewers."

I didn't get to watch the debate live, but did get to view it last night online. Overall, it was a good debate; I couldn't really pick out a clear winner. Here are my thoughts in order of poll ranking, along with the amount of speaking time each candidate got.

Donald Trump (10:31)
Trump was entertaining, as expected. Performance-wise, it was very mixed. He doesn't have a good response for much of his past liberal views and record, and has a tendency to disdain questions (and questioners). He hit the right notes at some points, but lacks depth on policy and a conservative philosophy. Do we really want a nominee who boasts that he buys politicians?

Jeb Bush (8:47)
Bush seemed a bit scattered. He stumbled over several of his answers, and came across unprepared (or perhaps rusty). So much for the "shock and awe" he was supposed to bring as front runner. He may have the money, but if he performs in future debates like he did in this one, money won't be enough to save his campaign.

Scott Walker (5:55)
Walker did well when he spoke, but it seemed to take a little bit for him to warm up. It was a good performance; not great, but he didn't hurt himself.

Mike Huckabee (6:50)
I felt that Huckabee's debate performance was strong. He's a natural on the stage, and is quicker on his feet and more articulate in his answers than just about any of the other candidates.

Ben Carson (6:36)
At some points in the debate, Carson looked like he felt out of place. At other points, he had some great moments. With his calm, soft-spoken manner, it's easy for him to get lost in the crowd, but I think he did well, overall.

Ted Cruz (6:43)
I was surprised by how slowly Cruz spoke during the debate (slowest words-per minute in the field), which kind of limited how much he could get in, and he had the largest silent spell of the candidates. Otherwise, he had a solid performance, particularly at the closing.

Marco Rubio (6:44)
Rubio probably had the best performance. He's smooth on his feet, articulate, likable, and never seemed to be searching for his answer. He also came across genuine and heartfelt. There really wasn't a bad point for him during the debate.

Rand Paul (5:00)
Paul tried a little too hard to be aggressive. He came across petulant and irritable, particularly in his exchange with Christie over NSA surveillance. It was eerily reminiscent of Rudy Giuliani's spats with Ron Paul in the 2008 debates, which is not a good thing. It's one thing to try to stand out in a crowded field, but Rand went about it the wrong way.

Chris Christie (6:11)
Christie's big moment was his tangle with Rand Paul. While he didn't come across as petty as Rand did, I don't think he necessarily emerged a clear winner out of it. He did have a bright spot in the exchange with Huckabee on entitlements; it's a major issue, but few want to even discuss it. I don't think he gets any bump out of the debate, but he didn't cause himself irreparable harm.

John Kasich (6:56)
This was Kasich's first big opportunity to introduce himself to voters, and I think he did so-so. His attempts to connect with average middle-class voters ("my dad was a mailman" comments) seemed forced and inauthentic. He didn't fall on his face, but I don't think he gained any ground, which he needed to do. In some respects, he was helped by the home-field advantage with the debate audience.


Helped

  • Marco Rubio
  • Mike Huckabee
  • Ted Cruz
  • Ben Carson

Neither helped nor hurt

  • Scott Walker
  • Chris Christie
  • John Kasich

Hurt

  • Jeb Bush
  • Donald Trump
  • Rand Paul

With ten candidates on the stage (not even counting the seven that didn't make it on), it was difficult for most of them to be able to speak enough to make a big impact.

I thought some of the questions were dumb, and a lot of them were intended to start some on-stage squabbling, but compared to debates in previous elections, I thought this was one of the best.

Comment with your thoughts. Did you miss the debate? Watch online here, or embedded below:

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

#16: John Kasich launches presidential campaign

This morning, Ohio Governor John Kasich launched his presidential campaign, becoming the 16th major Republican candidate to announce.

Here's his announcement speech:



An interesting point about Kasich is that he is angling for the centrist/moderate wing of the party, much like Jon Huntsman did in 2012 (Kasich hired most of Huntsman's former campaign team), and John McCain did in 2000. Another similar tie between those three is that like Huntsman and McCain, Kasich is making New Hampshire his "do-or-die" state.


Kasich joins 15 other Republicans running for President (links go to the candidate's official website): Jeb BushBen Carson, Chris ChristieTed CruzCarly FiorinaLindsey GrahamMike HuckabeeBobby JindalGeorge PatakiRand PaulRick PerryMarco RubioRick SantorumDonald Trump, and Scott Walker .

Monday, July 13, 2015

#15: Scott Walker makes it official

Earlier today, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially joined the race for President, as he was widely expected to do for some time.

Here's his announcement speech:



He gave his speech with no teleprompter or notes, and released a transcript before the event began. Reporters noted that he followed the prereleased text almost verbatim, which is pretty remarkable for a lengthy speech like this.

Walker joins 14 other Republicans running for President: Jeb BushBen Carson, Chris ChristieTed CruzCarly FiorinaLindsey GrahamMike HuckabeeBobby JindalGeorge PatakiRand PaulRick PerryMarco RubioRick Santorum and Donald Trump.

Saturday, July 11, 2015

16 in '16: My thoughts on the GOP field so far


16 in '16 -- the GOP candidates

The presidential race is starting to heat up, and it's definitely going to be interesting to watch. Here are some thoughts on how I'm leaning at this stage of the race.

We've got 16 major candidates on the GOP side of things. I'll try to list them in order of my preference:


LEANING TOWARD
  • Scott Walker
  • Ted Cruz
  • Bobby Jindal
  • Rand Paul

OPEN TO
  • Marco Rubio
  • Rick Perry
  • Mike Huckabee
  • Ben Carson
  • Rick Santorum

RULED OUT
  • Carly Fiorina
  • Donald Trump
  • Chris Christie
  • John Kasich
  • George Pataki
  • Lindsey Graham
  • Jeb Bush

This is roughly the order of my current preference. It's not how I view the candidate rankings in order of their chance at the nomination (that list would look quite different).

The further down the list, the more reservations I have about the candidates. As you can see, I've already marked off about half of the field. Fiorina ran for Senate in California as a more moderate candidate than she currently is presenting herself as. Christie, Kasich and Pataki are on the more moderate end of the GOP spectrum, Trump has been all over the place politically speaking (past Democrat and Clinton donor, left-leaning policy positions, etc), Graham has been on the wrong side of far too many issues in the Senate, and Bush... too many problems there to go into, least of which is his last name.

That takes care of the "ruled out" category. Now moving to Tier 2, working from the bottom on up.

Although he wasn't my first choice, I voted for Santorum in 2012. Santorum became the "conservative champion" by default, even though his record in the Senate was not the most conservative. He simply was the last man standing who had a shot at beating Romney. The only way he gets my vote again is if by some miracle/catastrophe he becomes the last option other than, say, Jeb Bush.

Ben Carson has a fantastic personal story to tell, and I think he would play very well in a general election. However, I am concerned with his inexperience with governing, as well as some of his public positions on issues like the 2nd Amendment.

The first vote I ever cast was for Mike Huckabee in 2008. His was the first presidential campaign I really got involved in. I donated, I made phone calls to several different states, and I waved signs, among other things. I still have a soft spot for Mike, but he's made some missteps since 2008, and there are so many good options this year.

Rick Perry had, for the most part, a great record as governor of Texas. He has an advantage over Huckabee and some of the others on this list due to how recently he was in office (left in January of 2015, as opposed to 2007 or earlier). Most candidates would kill for a record like his, but there's a gap between Perry on paper and Perry on the campaign trail.

I appreciate Marco Rubio's dedication in running for president. Some candidates, both now and in the past, have run for president while simultaneously seeking the office they currently hold. Rubio doesn't think that's right, and neither do I. He has a generally good record in the Senate, and would be a great, forward-looking face for the GOP. More than anyone else, Rubio almost makes it in my top tier.

Now for the ones I'm most seriously considering.

Rand Paul appeals to me primarily on a fiscal front. I'm not as sold on some of his foreign and social policies, though much more comfortable with his than with his dad's. Nobody running for president would be as good on fiscal issues as Rand. However, there are a few others that are more well-rounded for my taste. That being said, I think Rand can appeal to some new audiences for the GOP, and I would generally be very happy with a Rand Paul presidency.

Bobby Jindal is an under-appreciated governor. I don't know how his campaign will play out, or if he will gain traction, but he definitely deserves a look. From a policy standpoint, he's extremely intelligent and reform-minded (he's the biggest policy wonk in the field). He's got a great record at that. He's just plagued with a state (Louisiana) that hasn't appreciated that.

Ted Cruz hits all the right buttons. He says the right things, votes the right way, rubs the DC establishment the wrong (or rather, right) way, is articulate and quick on his feet when faced with a hostile media (in other words, every interview he gets). However, I've not heard or read much about his authoring major legislation. Rand Paul has offered alternate budgets, Marco Rubio a tax plan, Coburn had "Back in Black", Bobby Jindal has a healthcare plan, but I don't recall Ted Cruz having offered something like that (other than repealing ObamaCare). Derailing bad legislation is needed, but we also need good alternatives.

Scott Walker is probably in the lead (narrowly) for me right now. He's got a good record as governor, in a very difficult state for a conservative Republican. He beat the Democratic/union machine three times in four years -- a remarkable feat, given that Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984. As Governor, he's led on tough reforms, and won. He has executive experience that a Senator simply doesn't have, and that would be helpful as President.


That's where I'm at right now. You have to admit, we have some fantastic choices this election. Out of 16 candidates, there are nine I'd be happy with, and four or five I'd be thrilled at. The debates begin on August 6th, and voting starts in less than seven months. Buckle up, the ride is about to start!


Thursday, July 02, 2015

#14: Christie joins GOP presidential field

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced his presidential campaign on Tuesday, becoming the fourteenth major candidate on the Republican side.

Here's video from his announcement rally:


Christie joins thirteen other Republicans running for President: Jeb BushBen CarsonTed CruzCarly FiorinaLindsey GrahamMike Huckabee, Bobby JindalGeorge PatakiRand PaulRick PerryMarco RubioRick Santorum and Donald Trump.

There are only two other major candidates expected to join the race now -- Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (July 13th) and Ohio Governor John Kasich (July 21st).

As busy as this election cycle seems to be, we're actually "behind schedule" when compared to 2008 and 2012. By this point in 2008, there had already been 3 televised debates (starting on May 3rd), and in 2012 there had been two (starting on May 5th). This time around the first debate is set for August 6th.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Jeb Bush, Donald Trump join GOP presidential field

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finally made his presidential campaign official yesterday, with a kickoff rally in Miami.



Also announcing today in New York City was businessman and entertainment personality Donald Trump.



Bush and Trump join ten other Republicans running for President: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum.

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Carson, Walker, Cruz top SRLC straw poll


SoonerPoll conducted the straw poll held at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference this weekend, and here are the results:

  1. Ben Carson - 25.4%
  2. Scott Walker - 20.5%
  3. Ted Cruz - 16.6%
  4. Chris Christie - 5.3%
  5. Rick Perry - 5.0%
  6. Jeb Bush - 4.9%
  7. Rand Paul - 4.1%
  8. Marco Rubio - 4.1%
  9. Bobby Jindal - 4.1%
  10. Carly Fiorina - 2.7%
  11. Mike Huckabee - 2.7%
  12. Rick Santorum - 1.9%
  13. Donald Trump - 1.2%
  14. Mark Everson - 0.8%
  15. Lindsey Graham - 0.5%
  16. John Kasich - 0.2%
  17. Jim Gilmore - 0.0%
958 attendees cast ballots, with the bulk (713) coming from Oklahoma, followed by Texas (78) and Arkansas (58). 

I found some crosstabs here (pdf), which contain a lot of interesting information. Here are two of the other questions from the straw poll:


For these three issues, here are the leaders:

National Security: Walker and Carson (20.7%), Cruz (18.3%)
Economic: Walker (25.3%), Carson (15.5%), Cruz (15.2%)
Social: Carson (25.2%), Cruz (24.4%), Walker (18.1%)


Here are the leaders for each group:

Tea Party: Cruz (34.2%), Walker (22.6%), Carson (15.8%)
Libertarian: Paul (23.7%), Cruz (22.7%), Walker (18.6%)
Right-to-Life: Cruz (23.2%), Walker (19.2%), Carson (17.5%)
NRA/GOA: Cruz (22.8%), Walker (21.3%), Carson (15.3%)
FRC/CC: Walker (23.5%), Cruz (21.1%), Carson (20.6%)
Eagle Forum/CWA: Cruz (24.5%), Walker (22.7%), Carson (13.6%)
US Chamber: Walker (29.4%), Bush (17.6%), Perry (9.4%)
ATR: Walker (24.3%), Cruz (20.5%), Carson (17.6%)

Among Oklahoma voters, here are the top five:
  1. Walker - 23.3%
  2. Carson - 21.6%
  3. Cruz - 16.0%
  4. Christie - 6.2%
  5. Bush - 5.3%
Again, if you want to look through the crosstabs, here is the PDF link I found.