Dan Boren won't run for Governor in 2018

In an announcement today, former Democrat congressman Dan Boren has decided against running for governor in 2018. This is essentially the Oklahoma Democratic Party conceding the race to the GOP, as Boren was their best (and perhaps only) shot at taking the governor's mansion back.

From reporter Sean Murphy with the Associated Press:

Dan Boren decides not to run for Oklahoma governor in 2018

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - Dan Boren, a former four-term Democratic congressman from one of Oklahoma's most well-known political families, has decided not to run for the state's open governor seat in 2018.

Boren told The Associated Press that he opted against entering the campaign after spending the past year visiting with civic and business leaders across the state about a potential run.

"At this moment, it is important for me to spend time with my kids," Boren said late Monday. "My desire for public service has not diminished and I believe some day in the future I will enter public life again."

The 43-year-old Boren said he intends to continue working on business development for the Chickasaw Nation and spend time with his two children, ages 6 and 9.

In an interview with the AP earlier this year, Boren had said he was actively exploring a run to replace Republican Gov. Mary Fallin, who is prohibited by term limits from seeking a third four-year term in office.

Boren served one term as a state representative before running successfully for Congress in 2004 in the 2nd Congressional District in eastern Oklahoma, a seat he held for eight years before stepping down.

His grandfather, Lyle Boren, was a congressman and his father, University of Oklahoma President David Boren, is a former Oklahoma governor and U.S. senator. Dan Boren's first cousin, Janna Little, is married to current House Speaker Paul Ryan, the 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee.

The Oklahoma governor's seat in 2018 is expected to draw interest from strong candidates on both sides of the aisle. Potential Republican candidates include U.S. Rep. Jim Bridenstine, Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb, Treasurer Ken Miller and Attorney General Scott Pruitt. Lamb, Miller and Pruitt all are term-limited from their current offices, and Bridenstine has said he wouldn't seek a fourth term in Congress in 2018.

Prominent Tulsa attorney Gary Richardson, who ran as an independent for governor in 2002, said Tuesday he is taking a "very serious look" at running as a Republican in 2018.

Possible Democratic candidates include ex-state Rep. Joe Dorman, who won 41 percent of the vote against Fallin in 2014 despite being heavily outspent, and Oklahoma House Minority Leader Scott Inman of Del City.

Dilemma: who will Dems pick for possible CD2 special election?

With the prospect of a 2nd Congressional District special election looming, and the need to select a substitute candidate, the Oklahoma Democratic Party is in a pickle.

Their Party is in electoral shambles. They have not won a statewide race since 2006, and lost their lone congressional district to the GOP in 2012 after Dan Boren did not seek reelection. They are down to a mere eight seats in the 48-seat State Senate, and outnumbered 72-29 in the State House.

What's a Party to do in such a circumstance?

ODP Chairman Wallace Collins has told the media that they are considering "10 to 12" candidates to substitute for deceased nominee Earl Everett in a hypothetical (but likely) special election. Their new nominee would go up against GOP incumbent Markwayne Mullin and Independent Jon Douthitt, who received 70% and 5.4% in the November 4th election, respectively.

So, who would might they be considering? I'll take some guesses, and throw out some possibilities (some more realistic than others). I'll rate them on Likelihood of being selected, and Competitiveness in a 2nd District election.

Listed in order of my "competitiveness" rating, we start with...

BRAD HENRY
Likelihood: 0-0.5
Competitiveness: 10
Review: Brad Henry would probably be the most viable candidate the Democrats could put forward, and since residence in the district is not a requirement for federal offices, that wouldn't be a hindrance for a Henry candidacy. Henry is easily the most popular Democrat in Oklahoma, and won the 2nd District counties by huge margins in his gubernatorial races. However, the likelihood of Henry going for it is practically nil, so Republicans can breath a sigh of relief.

DREW EDMONDSON
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 8
Review: Drew Edmondson is an intriguing option for the Democrats. Edmonson has deep ties to the 2nd District; his father Ed was 2nd District congressman from 1953 to 1973 (the U.S. Courthouse in Muskogee is name after him), and his brother James is on the Oklahoma Supreme Court. Drew was the Muskogee County DA from 1983 to 1995. Drew would probably be pretty competitive, but at 68 years old, it's doubtful he'd want to re-enter the political world.

BRAD CARSON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 7

Review: Carson held the seat from 2000 to 2004, before losing the U.S. Senate race to his 2nd District predecessor, Tom Coburn. He expressed interest in the seat again when Boren made his announcement in June 2011, but changed his mind later in the month, and was appointed Under Secretary of the Army in September 2011. Would he be interested in leaving his Army post for a tough Congressional race? I doubt it.

JOE DORMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 6

Review: Dorman lives in the 4th District, but was just on the ballot for Governor and as such has high name recognition. He got around 43% of the gubernatorial vote in the 2nd District, which was slightly higher than he got statewide, and won four of the six counties he won are in the 2nd District. I could see the ODP trying to get Dorman to step in here.

JERRY ELLIS
Likelihood: 7
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Ellis termed out of the State Senate this year, and has put his name in with the ODP Central Committee. I view Ellis as the most likely pick for the Democrats. However, I don't see him as all that competitive, for several reasons. His old seat went Republican on Tuesday, Mullin has a significant bank account still and will far outraise any Democrat, and Ellis has practically no base outside of his old far-southeastern district. 

PETE REGAN
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Regan was chief-of-staff for Dan Boren, lost to Jari Askins in the 2006 Lt. Governor primary, but was appointed by Gov. Fallin to the Transportation Commission, surprising many Republicans. He could be a fairly competitive candidate, in large part due to ties to political money.

KENNETH CORN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Kenneth Corn was mentioned as a possible candidate in 2012, but declined to make the run. A former state senator, he lost the Lt. Governor race pretty badly against Todd Lamb in 2010, winning just two counties. Lamb had a 40%+ margin of victory in 13 of the 26 counties in the 2nd District, so I just don't see Corn as a very viable candidate.

JIM WILSON
Likelihood: 5
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wilson ran against Boren in 2010, and lost badly. Term-limited from the state senate in 2010, he's probably the most liberal individual on this list, and as such would be easy to beat.

WAYNE HERRIMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Herriman lost in the 2012 runoff to Rob Wallace, but might be open to another run. Could he do better than Rob Wallace? I don't think so.

EARL GARRISON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Senator from Muskogee, Garrison will be term-limited in 2014. Garrison isn't a particularly charismatic candidate, and his district base just isn't enough to make him that competitive.

ROB WALLACE
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wallace got 38.34% in 2012 against Mullin. I doubt another attempt would be more successful, or that Wallace would be interested.

MIKE BROWN
Likelihood: 2

Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Representative from Tahlequah, Brown is serving his final term. Would he be interested, since he'll be out of office soon anyway?

JERRY MCPEAK
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Like Brown, McPeak will also be term-limited from the House in 2016. With so few elected officials left in eastern Oklahoma, will the ODP ask McPeak? 

JOSHUA HARRIS-TILL
Likelihood: 6
Competitiveness: 1

Review: Harris-Till lost with 37% to Earl Everett in the primary this year, even though Everett suffered a stroke two months before the primary. He has publicly stated that he is interested. He wouldn't have a chance at winning.

2014 Election Results Map: Governor

The election is over, and as time allows I will begin working up and posting my latest Election Results Maps. These maps have become a staple/tradition of mine since I first started posting them in 2010.

(click image to view larger)

For comparison, here is the map from the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Dorman won six counties, a slight improvement from Jari Askins' four. Overall, Fallin got 4.63% less votes, which shows in some of these counties being weaker for her than they were four years ago.

Byas: Vote your head, pick Fallin

Governor's Race: Vote Your Head

by Steve Byas, Oklahoma Constitution

Those who advocate casting a vote for Dorman to punish Fallin for some of the disappointing actions of her governorship (or voting for one of the two non-serious gadfly independent candidates) are hurting others besides Fallin.

Recent polls indicate that Governor Mary Fallin should win comfortably over Democrat challenger Joe Dorman, although not by the margin expected by other Republican incumbents running statewide this Fall.

This indicates that loads of activist Republicans are disenchanted with Mary, but not enough to commit the stupid act of voting for the Democrat candidate for governor.

Those who advocate casting a vote for Dorman to punish Fallin for some of the disappointing actions of her governorship (or voting for one of the two non-serious gadfly independent candidates) are hurting others besides Fallin. They are hurting the state, the Republican Party, the conservative cause, and in the end, themselves and their own family.

Sure, I understand the frustration. But, after knowing Mary Fallin for about a quarter of a century, I have come to the conclusion that Mary is just Mary, and when you come to expect disappointment, it is not all that much of a disappointment.

What I would like to do is make the case to conservative Republicans that the best choice in this governor’s race is to cast your vote for Mary Fallin for reelection.

Where do I start? First, state Representative Dorman is a Democrat, and I do not believe there is one single Democrat in the Oklahoma Legislature worth voting for. When we first started the Oklahoma Constitution newspaper back in 1979, there were Democrats in the Oklahoma Legislature worth voting for, some who made the Top Conservatives list, but those days are long gone.

This does not mean that Dorman is “evil,” or even a flaming liberal. He is just a Democrat, and as such, he is going to make Democrats happy more often than he makes Republican happy. Look, his Conservative Index score is only 39% lifetime, with a mere 31% score this year. I realize that is fairly good for a Democrat, but that only makes my point. For some reason, some excuse a lot of bad votes from a Democrat. I understand holding Republicans to a higher standard, but I do not wink at bad votes simply because the legislator is of the Big Government party.

As a Democrat, Governor Joe Dorman will fill state government with a whole lot of Democrats. Expecting these Democrats to be conservatives is laughable. I guess you can find a four-leaf clover every now and then, too. Regardless of what many people argue to the contrary, there are many Republicans who are worth appointing to state offices. No, I do not expect Governor Mary Fallin to appoint multitudes of conservatives, but I can guarantee you that she will appoint a whole lot more than Dorman, simply because she will appoint more Republicans than Dorman will appoint.

Then, we have the state judicial appointments. If Dorman were to pull the big upset, expect liberal Democrats to take the place of retiring state judges at the appellate court level. While these judges face the voters in retention votes every six years, no appellate judges have ever been denied the additional six years by the voters. Dorman’s judges, drawn from the ranks of an increasingly left-wing Democrat Party, will issue liberal decisions for years past the time Dorman is back home in Rush Springs, eating watermelon at the annual festival.

Let’s say there is an unexpected vacancy in the U.S. Senate. Do you think Governor Dorman will appoint anyone better than Jim Inhofe to fill that vacancy until the election? Get real. And, guess who will be the candidate of the Republican Party for the U.S. Senate should the great Jim Inhofe have to step down from the Senate? I suspect it will be Joe Dorman. If you cause the election of Dorman for governor, you just might be picking Inhofe’s replacement as well.

Realistically, I do not expect Governor Fallin to lead us to the conservative promised land, but she will probably sign good bills, if the Republican-dominated Legislature passes them. Sure, she waited to the last minute to sign the repeal of Common Core, but she did sign it. In our last issue, we analyzed the “conservative” ratings of the six governors who have resided at the Governor’s Mansion during the years of the Oklahoma Constitution (1979-2014). Whatever else one says about Fallin, of the six governors, she had the highest conservative score, at 63%, edging out fellow Republican Governor Frank Keating. I will admit that 63 is not great, but it is a whole lot better than the 31% score that Dorman had this last session. It is almost twice as good.

Sure, I could mention some bad policies and bad moves by Governor Fallin the past four years, and I have for the past four years in these pages. I fully expect I will be back next year, bellyaching about something else that Mary Fallin has done, or something else that she has failed to do.

But for now, I am going to use my head and vote this November for the person who is clearly the better candidate – Mary Fallin.

Byas is the editor of the Oklahoma Constitution newspaper, Oklahoma's conservative 

quarterly paper since 1979.

Last SoonerPoll survey: Fallin lead cut to 8, Hofmeister up 2, Inhofe and Lankford up 30+

In the final survey conducted by SoonerPoll before the election on Tuesday, results find Governor Mary Fallin's lead slipping slightly, the State Superintendent race a virtual tie, and the GOP running away with both U.S. Senate races.

I've posted the results from SoonerPoll's previous surveys as well. The September poll is in parentheses, and the August poll is in brackets. I've also included the movement from the previous survey.

News9/News on 6/SoonerPoll surveys

Crosstabs: Oct. 29 (Sept. 29) [Aug. 30]

Oct. 29 MoE +/-3.18% (Sept. 29 MoE +/- 4.9%) [Aug 30. MoE +/- 3.99%]

Governor

• Mary Fallin (R): 48.4 (49.9) [50.3]   -1.5%
• Joe Dorman (D): 40.0 (35.8) [32.1]   +4.2%
• Richard Prawdzienski (I): 2.8 (3.2) [1.2]   -0.4%
• Kimberly Willis (I): 1.7 (3.3) (1.1]   -1.6%
• Unsure 7.1 (7.9)  (15.0]   -0.8%

Have Joe Dorman's efforts to tie Governor Fallin to unpopular State Superintendent Janet Barresi been working? Fallin lost a little bit of ground, while Dorman climbed to his highest point yet in SoonerPoll's survey. It's probably too little, too late, but this race just might end up a lot closer than expected.

U.S. Senate - full term

• Jim Inhofe (R):  62.7 (56.4) [59.1]   +6.3%
• Matt Silverstein (D): 27.8 (32.0) [27.4]   -4.2%
• Ray Woods (I): 2.6 (3.8) [1.7]   -1.2%
• Aaron Delozier (I): 1.3 (0.5) [1.7]   +0.8%
• Joan Farr (I): 1.3 (0.8) [1.2]   +0.5%
• Unsure 4.4 (6.5) [8.8]   -2.1%

Don't be surprised if Inhofe hits 70% on election night.

U.S. Senate - partial term

• James Lankford (R):  59.4 (56.2) [58.2]   +3.2%
• Connie Johnson (D): 28.1 (28.1) [28.1]   even
• Mark Beard (I): 3.5 (3.5) [3.0]   even
• Unsure 9.0 (12.2) [10.7]   -3.2%

I don't think I've ever seen a candidate draw the same exact percentage three months in a row. I'd say 28.1% is about as low as Lankford will get Johnson to go.

State Superintendent

• Joy Hofmeister (R):42.3 (38.3) [38.4]   +4.0%
• John Cox (D): 40.1 (38.0) [40.5]   +2.1%
• Unsure 17.6 (23.7) [21.2]   -6.1

This is the general election race of the cycle. In all three surveys, Cox and Hofmeister have been within the margin of error. Hofmeister has a very slight lead at the moment, but John Cox is by no means out of reach. This race still is the Oklahoma Democratic Party's best opportunity for a win.

The Democrats are trying to make the entire election a referendum on Janet Barresi's tenure as State Superintendent. However, Hofmeister's numbers grew at double the rate Cox's did, while Governor Fallin lost ground. In an ironic twist, is this "Barresi tactic" working more in the gubernatorial race than it is in the superintendent race?

Fallin, Dorman hit each other on TV

Governor Mary Fallin and her Democratic opponent Joe Dorman have both hit the airwaves with ads critical of their opponent. Dorman ties Fallin to outgoing State Superintendent Janet Barresi, while Fallin associates Dorman with President Barack Obama.

Personally, I find this commercial of Dorman's to be very effective -- perhaps the best thing that's come out of his campaign to date (an opinion shared by well-known Republican officials and activists I've spoken to). The problem for him is that it's likely too-little-too-late to make much of an impact.

Dorman's ad:


Fallin's ad:

Sole Fallin/Dorman debate airs tomorrow night

OETA: Watch the Gubernatorial Debate

Watch the sole gubernatorial debate between Republican incumbent Mary Fallin and Democratic challenger Joe Dorman on Thursday, Oct. 2 at 7 p.m., as part of the OETA’s Oklahoma Votes 2014 statewide election coverage.

OETA will air the debate live across the state and stream online at www.oeta.tv, with viewers encouraged to join the conversation on their social media platforms by using the hashtag #okvotes14.

A panel of Oklahoma journalists, including OETA managing editor Dick Pryor, will ask the candidates questions, plus there will be questions from OSU students. Dr. Brandon Lenoir, a visiting OSU assistant professor in political science, will moderate the debate and OSU students will help facilitate the event.

Fallin campaign launches new ad

Fallin Campaign Releases New Ad: "Independent"

The Fallin for Governor Campaign today released a new ad, titled “Independent,” to run on network television in markets across Oklahoma.

The ad showcases Oklahoma’s conservative, independent spirit, and how Governor Mary Fallin has worked to protect the state’s independence from the federal government.




“Independent” Script:

Oklahoma’s a pretty special place. 
We have a strong connection to the land, a fierce independent spirit and a deep faith that sustains us through difficult times.
So when Washington gets in the way, Oklahomans push back. 
It's why I refused to go along with Obamacare and stood up to an out of control EPA.
Whether it’s Washington bureaucrats or even the President, I’ll take the fight to them.
Because no one care more about Oklahoma. 
No one.

Gov. Fallin to make campaign stop in Muskogee on Monday

Governor Mary Fallin will be making a campaign stop in Muskogee as her statewide bus tour, “Mary on the Move”, comes to Muskogee on Monday (August 11th). Governor Fallin and her reelection team will be at Harmony House in Muskogee at 3:00pm. Harmony House is located at 208 S. 7th Street in downtown Muskogee.

For further information or questions, contact the Fallin for Governor Headquarters at (405) 990-4703, or email info@maryfallin.org.

NYT/CBS Poll: Fallin up 9%, Lankford and Inhofe lead by 20%+

A new CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll finds Oklahoma's top Republican candidates all leading their Democratic opponents by substantial margins, particularly in the Senate races. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R) holds a 24-point lead over Matt Silverstein (D), while James Lankford (R) leads Democratic runoff candidates Connie Johnson (D) and Jim Rogers (D) by 23% and 27%, respectively.

(click image to view larger)

In the gubernatorial race, Governor Mary Fallin (R) is leading Joe Dorman (D) 49%-40% (leaners included). The crosstabs for this race are particularly interesting -- I hope to go into them in more detail in another post soon.

View the full article and crosstabs for this national poll here.

Poll shocker: Fallin 45%, Dorman 40%

 In a stunner of a poll, nationally respected pollster Scott Rasmussen finds Oklahoma's incumbent Republican Governor Mary Fallin leading Democratic nominee Joe Dorman by just 5%.

Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 45%, Dorman (D) 40%

Rasmussen Reports

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Oklahoma is rated Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 15-16, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Read the rest here.

OK Dems' Sacrificial Lamb: Dorman considering gubernatorial bid

State Rep. Joe Dorman (D-Rush Springs)

Faced with former Republican/Independent/Libertarian RJ Harris as their only announced candidate for Governor, the Oklahoma Democrats appear to have found their loyal sacrificial lamb in the form of State Rep. Joe Dorman.

Dorman launched an exploratory committee yesterday. Although not a final decision, this step allows him to raise funds for a potential challenge, and gives him the opportunity to decide whether to further pursue a campaign. Dorman is term-limited, and thus would not be vacating his seat in the House by running for governor.

As of the last finance report, Governor Fallin had $1.2M in her campaign account.