Last SoonerPoll survey: Fallin lead cut to 8, Hofmeister up 2, Inhofe and Lankford up 30+

In the final survey conducted by SoonerPoll before the election on Tuesday, results find Governor Mary Fallin's lead slipping slightly, the State Superintendent race a virtual tie, and the GOP running away with both U.S. Senate races.

I've posted the results from SoonerPoll's previous surveys as well. The September poll is in parentheses, and the August poll is in brackets. I've also included the movement from the previous survey.

News9/News on 6/SoonerPoll surveys

Crosstabs: Oct. 29 (Sept. 29) [Aug. 30]

Oct. 29 MoE +/-3.18% (Sept. 29 MoE +/- 4.9%) [Aug 30. MoE +/- 3.99%]

Governor

• Mary Fallin (R): 48.4 (49.9) [50.3]   -1.5%
• Joe Dorman (D): 40.0 (35.8) [32.1]   +4.2%
• Richard Prawdzienski (I): 2.8 (3.2) [1.2]   -0.4%
• Kimberly Willis (I): 1.7 (3.3) (1.1]   -1.6%
• Unsure 7.1 (7.9)  (15.0]   -0.8%

Have Joe Dorman's efforts to tie Governor Fallin to unpopular State Superintendent Janet Barresi been working? Fallin lost a little bit of ground, while Dorman climbed to his highest point yet in SoonerPoll's survey. It's probably too little, too late, but this race just might end up a lot closer than expected.

U.S. Senate - full term

• Jim Inhofe (R):  62.7 (56.4) [59.1]   +6.3%
• Matt Silverstein (D): 27.8 (32.0) [27.4]   -4.2%
• Ray Woods (I): 2.6 (3.8) [1.7]   -1.2%
• Aaron Delozier (I): 1.3 (0.5) [1.7]   +0.8%
• Joan Farr (I): 1.3 (0.8) [1.2]   +0.5%
• Unsure 4.4 (6.5) [8.8]   -2.1%

Don't be surprised if Inhofe hits 70% on election night.

U.S. Senate - partial term

• James Lankford (R):  59.4 (56.2) [58.2]   +3.2%
• Connie Johnson (D): 28.1 (28.1) [28.1]   even
• Mark Beard (I): 3.5 (3.5) [3.0]   even
• Unsure 9.0 (12.2) [10.7]   -3.2%

I don't think I've ever seen a candidate draw the same exact percentage three months in a row. I'd say 28.1% is about as low as Lankford will get Johnson to go.

State Superintendent

• Joy Hofmeister (R):42.3 (38.3) [38.4]   +4.0%
• John Cox (D): 40.1 (38.0) [40.5]   +2.1%
• Unsure 17.6 (23.7) [21.2]   -6.1

This is the general election race of the cycle. In all three surveys, Cox and Hofmeister have been within the margin of error. Hofmeister has a very slight lead at the moment, but John Cox is by no means out of reach. This race still is the Oklahoma Democratic Party's best opportunity for a win.

The Democrats are trying to make the entire election a referendum on Janet Barresi's tenure as State Superintendent. However, Hofmeister's numbers grew at double the rate Cox's did, while Governor Fallin lost ground. In an ironic twist, is this "Barresi tactic" working more in the gubernatorial race than it is in the superintendent race?

LIVE: Lankford and Johnson debate on OState.tv

Watch the U.S. Senate debate on OState.tv between GOP nominee James Lankford and Democrat nominee Connie Johnson here.

Election Results Maps: Democrat Senate, Superintendent runoffs

Another statewide election day has passed, and another set of my Election Results Maps has been produced. Since the Republicans had no statewide races go to a runoff, these maps are of the two Democrat races. As always, the colors have more to do with the candidate's dominant sign/logo color than with ideology.

First up, the Senate runoff between uber-liberal state senator Connie Johnson and sometimes-successful perennial candidate Jim Rogers.

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As with the primary, Johnson basically only won because she rolled up big margins in the OKC and Tulsa metros. Otherwise, Rogers performed very well in the rural areas. Johnson did make more inroads than in the primary, as evidenced when you compare this map to the primary election map.

Contrary to what ODP Chairman Wallace Collins recently told the press, however, James Lankford won't have any problem trouncing Johnson.

Next, the State Superintendent race.

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Cox obliterated Deskin in this runoff. I had to add an additional color to add intensity to this particular map. In Adair County, Cox took 90.3% of the vote -- his highest county, and one of the highest percentages I've seen in my map-making "career". For comparison, here is the primary election map. Deskin led in 17 counties in the primary, but only won three in the runoff.

This race will hold the Democrats' best chance of victory in November. Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee, may have her hands full with John Cox.

NYT/CBS Poll: Fallin up 9%, Lankford and Inhofe lead by 20%+

A new CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll finds Oklahoma's top Republican candidates all leading their Democratic opponents by substantial margins, particularly in the Senate races. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R) holds a 24-point lead over Matt Silverstein (D), while James Lankford (R) leads Democratic runoff candidates Connie Johnson (D) and Jim Rogers (D) by 23% and 27%, respectively.

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In the gubernatorial race, Governor Mary Fallin (R) is leading Joe Dorman (D) 49%-40% (leaners included). The crosstabs for this race are particularly interesting -- I hope to go into them in more detail in another post soon.

View the full article and crosstabs for this national poll here.

Oklahoma Democrat Senate Primary Map

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Just for fun, I threw together this map of the Democrat's primary, in which State Sen. Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers advanced to the runoff. The winner of that August 26th contest will be the Democratic nominee facing James Lankford in the general election.

Johnson received 71,462 votes to Rogers' 57,598 and Hayes' 33,943. Johnson's lead (13,864) came almost entirely from Oklahoma County (13,389 lead over Rogers).

The Oklahoma Democratic Party is in pretty sad shape when a sitting state senator can barely edge out a perennial candidate who does little-to-no campaigning.

Speaking of the ODP's "last best hope", the Oklahoman recently had a good article on Jim Rogers, which you can read here.

Finally: Connie Johnson becomes first Democrat Senate candidate

State Senator Constance Johnson (D-Forest Park) today announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Dr. Tom Coburn (R-Muskogee). She becomes the first announced Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate this year.

Johnson at her announcement press conference this morning

Back in January, Sen. Johnson told KRMG she thinks her push to legalize marijuana in Oklahoma could help her win the seat.

A crowd of Republicans are running for the seat as well, led by Congressman James Lankford, State Rep. T.W. Shannon, and former state sen. Randy Brogdon.

State Sen. Constance Johnson thinks Marijuana could elect her to U.S. Senate

State Sen. Constance Johnson (D-OKC) tells KRMG's Russell Mills that she is considering running for U S. Senate, and that she believes her push to legalize marijuana in Oklahoma could be the factor that would elect her as Tom Coburn's replacement.

In an interview about her recently-filed marijuana legalization bill, Johnson told Mills that she believed her bill could lead to the election of an African American woman to the US Senate. Mills asked her whether she was considering running, and she said that she was thinking about it.