Newt announces he will announce campaign suspension tomorrow

Newt Gingrich released this video today, announcing that he will be announcing the suspension of his presidential campaign on Wednesday.




I find the announcement-of-an-announcement to be a little odd, but it fits with how his campaign began.

On to November, and the Romney vs. Obama battle.

Super Tuesday: Santorum Wins Oklahoma

With 1950 of 1961 precincts reporting, Rick Santorum has won the Oklahoma Republican presidential primary, holding off Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich in a tighter-than-expected finish. Santorum received 33.8% statewide, with Romney getting 28%, Gingrich taking 27.5%, and Ron Paul finishing with 9.6%.

Results by congressional district:

1st Congressional District

• Santorum - 33.4%
• Gingrich - 29.75%
• Romney - 27.65%
• Paul - 8.3%

2nd Congressional District

• Santorum - 37.6%
• Gingrich - 30.2%
• Romney - 22.2%
• Paul - 8.9%

3rd Congressional District

• Santorum - 34%
• Gingrich - 29%
• Romney - 25.8%
• Paul - 9.8%

4th Congressional District

• Santorum - 34.85%
• Romney - 28.3%
• Gingrich - 24.8%
• Paul - 11%

5th Congressional District

• Romney - 33.9%
• Santorum - 30.8%
• Gingrich - 23.9%
• Paul - 10.5%

The final delegate count looks like it will be Santorum with 14, Romney with 13, and Gingrich with 13. Of Oklahoma's 77 counties, 2 went to Romney, 11 to Gingrich, and the remaining 64 were won by Santorum.

It appears that on the Democrat side, Randall Terry (18% statewide) and Jim Rogers (13.8% statewide) will receive delegates, in addition to Barack Obama (57.1% statewide). Terry won 12 counties, Rogers won 3, and Obama took the other 62. Obama placed third in five counties. Terry and Rogers held Obama to just 42% in the 2nd Congressional District, and 47% in the 3rd Congressional District.

Outside of Oklahoma, Romney looks to have won Massachusetts, Vermont, Virginia, Idaho, and Ohio (in a squeaker). Gingrich won Georgia. Santorum has won Oklahoma, Tennessee, and North Dakota. Alaska's caucus results probably won't be available until sometime Wednesday.

My choice for President is...

This presidential primary has been a roller-coaster of surprises. A very divided field resulted in swiftly-changing dynamics in the race, with new candidates surging to the lead for a few weeks, then plummeting while another candidate soared to the top. Debate after debate after debate after debate..... after debate after debate, with a few scandals (or so-called "scandals") tossed in for good measure.

Eventually, some candidates saw their exit approaching, and decided to get off the campaign trail. That may have narrowed the field, but the upheaval still continues.

Finally, we entered into the actual voting. Three candidates have won states - Santorum, Romney, and Gingrich. For the most part, the race is down to Santorum and Romney, with Gingrich playing spoiler for Santorum.

Tomorrow, Oklahoma and nine other "Super Tuesday" states will be voting. Many of you have doubtless received numerous robocalls in the past 48 hours from the various campaigns (I have received nearly a dozen), and hundreds of volunteers are waving signs or making get-out-the-vote calls for their chosen candidate across the state. Most of that will end in Oklahoma tomorrow evening, once the polls close, and the campaigns will shift their resources to other states.

In 2008, I was a strong Huckabee supporter from the very beginning. When he announced that he would not run for President, I was left without a candidate. I truly became an undecided voter, for probably the first time since I registered to vote. I bounced between Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Perry (mainly Bachmann, though).


Problem is...

... they all dropped out.

There are four candidates on the ballot tomorrow that are still running. The time has come to decide who to vote for.


I pick Rick Santorum.

Of the candidates left, Santorum is the one who has been a genuine, consistent, and across-the-board conservative, and carries little-to-no baggage. He is a well-rounded conservative on the issues that matter - social, fiscal, and national security.

I agree with Ron Paul on most of his fiscal policy, but I cannot reconcile my beliefs to his libertarian views on social issues and on foreign policy. Additionally, he tends to attract the worst crowd (granted, a minority, but very vocal and public), such as 9/11 Truthers, anarchists, anti-Israel and pro-drugs activists, etcetera, and he chooses campaign leaders like Al Gerhart (see the McCarville Report for all the latest on that debacle). He also endorsed radical socialist leftists Cynthia McKinney and Ralph Nader for president in 2008 (along with two other third-party candidates).

I cannot support Newt Gingrich, because of his past and current actions, statements and policy views. Gingrich has tremendous baggage that would be exploited in a general election, and I can't trust him to be a reliable conservative. He is the last person in this primary that I would vote for.

I cannot support Mitt Romney, largely (though not exclusively) due to RomneyCare. The issue of this election will be ObamaCare, and Romney cannot draw a clear enough distinction between himself and Obama on this point. Unlike Gingrich, Romney's personal life has been admirable. Like Gingrich, Romney has had liberal tendencies in healthcare, global warming, abortion, gun rights, and other issues.

Only three candidates have any degree of a shot at the nomination; Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich. Romney and Gingrich present, as Ronald Reagan said best, 'pale pastels', while Santorum offers 'bold colors'.

Fellow blogger Michael Bates has a fantastic post that goes into more detail about Santorum, and why you should support him in tomorrow's presidential primary. He also has a good synopsis of the Santorum rally in Tulsa that took place last night, which I also attended.

I have many friends who will be voting for other candidates, and I hold no ill will toward them for their choice. All of these candidates are better than President Obama. However, for me, the choice in this primary is clear. I pick Rick.

Rasmussen: Santorum 43%, Newt 22%, Mitt 18% in Oklahoma

A brand-new Rasmussen Reports poll released today shows Rick Santorum with a two-to-one lead over his nearest challenger in Oklahoma's Republican presidential primary.

Rasmussen Reports Oklahoma Republican Primary (link)

Rick Santorum - 43% 
Newt Gingrich - 22%
Mitt Romney  - 18%
Ron Paul - 7%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 7%

Poll of 750 likely Republican voters, taken on February 21st, MoE +/-4%

With less than two weeks til the GOP primary here, Santorum looks well positioned to snag a big victory in Oklahoma. If the election day results are similar to these, he could receive between 25 and 30 (or more) of Oklahoma's 43 delegates.

Santorum Surges to Lead in Oklahoma

SoonerPoll.com released a survey today of that Oklahoma Republican Presidential primary, and found that Rick Santorum has surged to an impressive lead. Santorum recently attracted very large crowds at events in Oklahoma City and Tulsa following up on his victories in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

SoonerPoll.com Oklahoma Republican Primary Survey (link) 

Rick Santorum - 39%
Mitt Romney - 23%
Newt Gingrich - 18%
Ron Paul - 8%
Undecided - 13% 

Poll of 300 likely Republican primary voters, taken February 8-16, with a MoE of +/-5.66%

Previous polls had shown Newt Gingrich leading the Oklahoma primary. American Research Group released a poll on the 8th that had Gingrich with 34%, Romney with 31%, Santorum at 16%, and Paul with 10%. SoonerPoll had a survey in mid December that put Newt in the lead with 33%, Romney at 14%, Paul with 4%, and Santorum at 1.5% (other candidates have since dropped out).

Oklahoma has a proportional delegate apportionment this cycle. Oklahoma gets 43 delegates this time around. Three are unpledged (OKGOP Chairman Matt Pinnell, RNC members James Dunn and Carolyn McLarty), each congressional district has three (for a total of fifteen), and the remainder (twenty five) are awarded off the statewide vote tally. In order to be eligible for delegates, a candidate must receive more than 15% of the vote statewide for at-large delegates, and 15% for congressional district delegates. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the vote statewide, he is automatically awarded all at-large delegates; the same is true for the congressional district level.

Therefore, if the final results of the March 6th vote looked like the poll above, Santorum could receive something around 12 at-large delegates, Romney about 7, and Gingrich around 6. The 15 congressional-district delegates would be awarded based on how the candidates performed in each district. Since SoonerPoll has not released cross-tabs showing their survey results on a congressional district level, I can't give a complete delegate estimate.

UPDATE: SoonerPoll has now released the crosstabs - you can view them here.

Drilling down into the results allows for rough estimates on delegate allotment off of the results SoonerPoll found. My guess would be that among the 15 congressional-district delegates, Santorum would receive about 8, while Romney would get 4, and Gingrich would take 3. Add those to the statewide at-large estimates, and you come up with this:

• Santorum - 20 delegates
• Romney - 11 delegates
• Gingrich - 9 delegates
• Paul - 0 delegates

Obviously, take these with a big grain of salt, but this should give a rough idea as how the delegates would be dealt out.

ARG Poll: Gingrich, Romney lead in Oklahoma

American Research Group Oklahoma Republican Primary Poll (link)

Newt Gingrich - 34%
Mitt Romney - 31%
Rick Santorum - 16%
Ron Paul - 10%
Other - 2%
Undecided - 7%

Poll of 600 likely Republican primary voters, taken February 6-7, with a MoE of +/- 4%

A recent American Research Group survey finds Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney leading the GOP field here in Oklahoma's presidential primary. The poll was conducted on February 6th and 7th, before Rick Santorum won the three states last night.

ARG is not well-know for being very accurate; in 2008, they were among the worst in accuracy rates among polling groups, so take the results with a grain of salt.

Romney, Paul and Santorum have fairly public campaigns in the state, whether grassroots or official campaign staff-led. Romney visited the state a few months ago, and Santorum is coming to Oklahoma City and Tulsa tomorrow. The major Super PAC supporting Gingrich has been running ads in the state for weeks (I've heard several different radio ads).

Romney and Gingrich: "Who's on First?"

Contrary to what the title might seem to indicate, this post isn't about who is the front-runner in the GOP presidential race. Instead, it takes a slight break from actual political news...

Check out this video someone put together, featuring Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich "performing" Abbott and Costello's classic sketch 'Who's on first?'





Enjoy!

Herman Cain endorses Newt Gingrich

Former presidential candidate Herman Cain announced today via Twitter that he is endorsing Newt Gingrich for President.

The news came via a tweet Cain posted at 9:19pm EST, that read "I am officially endorsing @NewtGingrich for President of the United States!"

After dropping out of the race in early December, Cain was noncommittal on whether he would endorse a candidate or not. The Florida Republican primary, which is very important for both Gingrich and his main opponent Mitt Romney, is coming up on Tuesday.

Three candidates, three states: Newt takes South Carolina

Rick Santorum learned this week that he actually did squeak out a 34-vote victory in the Iowa Caucus. Mitt Romney held on to a commanding lead in New Hampshire, and won the first-in-the-nation primary.

Now, in a very apropos manner, given how turbulent this race has been, Newt Gingrich has taken a dominating lead, and will win South Carolina. As of 7:30pm (CST), with 35.8% reporting, the results are Gingrich 40.4%, Romney 26.2%, Santorum 18.1%, and Paul in last with 13.4%.

Three states. Three different victors.

The next primary will be in Florida, on January 31st.

First votes from NH: Dixville Notch and Hart's Location

Political novelties Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, two tiny hamlets in New Hampshire, have cast their votes in the GOP primary. The communities are allowed by law to open voting right after midnight, and close when all registered voters complete voting (usually within minutes).

The GOP primary results from the two "first in the nation" locations:

• Mitt Romney: 7
• Ron Paul: 5
• Jon Huntsman: 4
• Newt Gingrich: 2
• Rick Perry: 1

Barack Obama received ten votes in the Democratic primary.

All eyes turn to South Carolina...

After the closer-than-a-hair finish in Iowa, sparked by the Santorum Surge, all eyes are now on South Carolina.

After squeaking out a plurality in Iowa by eight votes (which some are already calling into question), Mitt Romney goes into New Hampshire this Tuesday as the overwhelming favorite. The latest Rasmussen poll puts Romney at 42%, with Ron Paul at 18% and Rick Santorum at 13%. However, given Romney's history in the state, and the fact that he governed in next-door Massachusetts, that is not unexpected.

As Mark B. Lowe on Race42012.com posted this morning, We all know the old political adage, “Three tickets out of Iowa, two out of New Hampshire”. For a while now, a third phrase has been added to it, “One out of South Carolina”. Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has ended up being the eventual GOP presidential nominee.

The Rasmussen poll in South Carolina finds a close race between Romney at 27% and Santorum at 24%. Santorum was at 1% in the last poll taken by Rasmussen - an astounding surge! If they do not finish first or second, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will probably end their campaigns, as there will be no momentum or reason to continue.

South Carolina votes on January 21st, and will most likely again decide the Republican presidential nominee.

Iowa Caucus - final thoughts, predictions

The day has finally arrived - the 2012 presidential primary officially kicks off today with the Iowa Caucuses this evening. Who will emerge as the winners tonight? Let's take a closer look at the candidates.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney should be the clear leader in Iowa. He has the money, the name recognition, the organization, the past campaign experience in the state...... yet he has struggled to break above the low 20's in polling. Iowans, like most of the rest of the country, clearly are hesitant about him. Romney's support has stayed fairly consistent throughout the year, while practically every other candidate has leapfrogged him to the lead (and subsequently plummeted while the next 'Not Romney' candidate took the lead). I think that Romney faces a very real possibility of coming in third in Iowa. Will it hurt him? I don't think it damages him too much, because next week is the New Hampshire primary, where he has a formidable 20+ point lead. Iowa is more about who will challenge Romney than how much it helps or hurts Romney.

Ron Paul

It's no coincidence that two of the top candidates in Iowa were candidates in 2008. Ron Paul has an extensive network in this state that stems from his previous presidential run - an advantage that only Romney also enjoys among the other candidates. Polling showed Paul leading or tied with Romney until about a week ago, when his numbers slipped a few points. While I think he will be in the top three, I don't think that the undecideds will break heavily in Paul's favor, instead going to candidates like Santorum and Perry.

Rick Santorum

Santorum has been surging here in the last week and a half - fruit from spending almost his entire campaign in Iowa. Nobody has visited the state more, and it looks to finally be paying off. A week ago, he was in sixth place. Now he's in third, with an upward trajectory. More so than any other candidate, Santorum needs a top three finish in Iowa, but preferably a top two. He has practically no ground game anywhere else, so his path to the nomination depends on momentum out of Iowa. Coming in fourth kills his campaign; however, I think he has a real possibility of finishing first.

Newt Gingrich

Like Paul, Perry, Bachmann, and Herman Cain, Gingrich peaked in Iowa too early. Third place looks like the best possible scenario that Gingrich can achieve at this point, but that is pretty unlikely. Gingrich's ground organization doesn't appear to be as well organized as other candidates, a key component of performing well in caucuses. He needs new life breathed into his campaign, and a poor showing in Iowa will not help his fading chances in the next states.

Rick Perry

Perry's campaign appears to have recovered some from its earlier doldrums, and can likely jump into fourth in Iowa. A third place finish which would be very big for his campaign, but I don't think it will happen. He seems to have a good organization on the ground, and has enough money to fund operations in multiple states (unlike Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman, and possibly Gingrich). Perry needs a good showing in Iowa in order to show viability; a fifth or sixth place would be detrimental to his campaign.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann has to perform well in Iowa. She has staked most of her campaign on the state, and at one time was the frontrunner here (a title nearly every candidate has owned at one point or another). Unfortunately for her, polling just isn't showing a new spark of life - she currently is in sixth in just about every poll out there. She needs to be fourth to really justify continuing her campaign.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman opted to not compete in Iowa, and is instead focusing solely on the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. His hope is for Romney to do poorly in Iowa, in order to make the case to New Hampshire voters that Romney can't win, leaving Huntsman as the viable option.

How will it end up?

I'm going to take a stab and jot down some thoughts on the results.

Santorum - 23%
Romney - 21%
Paul - 20%
Perry - 15%
Gingrich - 10%
Bachmann - 9%
Huntsman - 2%
Other - <1%

Comment with your predictions, here or on Facebook, and see how close you get to the final results.

Poll shows Gingrich leading in Oklahoma (but take with a grain of salt)

SoonerPoll.com conducted a poll over the past month on the presidential primary here in Oklahoma. It has some interesting results, but I'll explain why it should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Newt Gingrich: 33.3%
Mitt Romney: 14.3%
Rick Perry: 9.3%
Herman Cain:  9.3% (dropped out during polling, but was kept in for consistency)
Ron Paul: 4.3%
Michele Bachmann: 3.5%
Rick Santorum: 1.5%
Jon Huntsman: 1.3%
Don't know/refused: 23.5%

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific poll Nov. 17-Dec. 16, 2011.  The survey was of 400 'Likely' Oklahoma voters who identified themselves as Republicans, with a margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

At the start of their polling, Herman Cain was still an active candidate. Upon his withdrawal, SoonerPoll had to keep his name in the poll, in order for consistency in the survey.

However, Cain's inclusion isn't the problem for me -- my hesitation is based on the length of the poll. Most surveys of this nature are done in a two to three day period, sometimes as long as a week. This one took a whole month, which seems excessive to me. With this particular election cycle, much transpires in a month's time (a prime example in this poll being Herman Cain's candidacy).

A primary poll is essentially a snapshot of the current mood of the electorate in regards to the candidates. When a poll is of this length, it loses focus, and the results become fuzzy and out of focus.

Gingrich may well have this type of a lead in Oklahoma, but I take this poll with a big grain of salt. Until another poll confirms the results, put an asterisk beside this one.

Ron Paul wins OKGOP Straw Poll

Results for the Oklahoma Republican Party Presidential Straw Poll were announced this evening at the "Victory 2012" rally in Oklahoma City. Texas Congressman Ron Paul emerged as the victor of the online poll, which required a five dollar donation per vote, and was limited to one vote per individual.

The results:

1. Ron Paul - 46%
2. Herman Cain - 25%
3. Newt Gingrich - 17%
4. Mitt Romney - 6%
5. Rick Perry - 3%
6. Michele Bachmann - 2%
7. Rick Santorum - 1%
8. Gary Johnson - less than 1%

Poll was conducted online at www.OklahomaStrawPoll.com from November 21st to December 5th. For more details visit www.oklahomastrawpoll.com/faq or call (405) 528-3501.

GOP Presidential Candidates' Mount Rushmore Additions

ABC News and Yahoo recently teamed up to conduct a round of interviews with the Republican presidential candidates, which included a "lightning round" covering more personal, non-political questions; you can view the synopsis here. It's an interesting and entertaining read.

One of the questions asked was about additions to Mount Rushmore.

From ABC News/Yahoo:

Question: Who should be the fifth president on Mount Rushmore?

• Jon Huntsman: Ronald Reagan, but I worked for him 100 years ago, and I saw him up close as an advance man. Very special man.
• Michele Bachmann: Well, Ronald Reagan would be a good choice.  But — I– I think just — Garfield was the last member who was — the House of Representatives, who became president of the United States — and he — and he was a very — he was a wonderful man.  But also, I’d have to say, Calvin Coolidge should be up there, too. Calvin Coolidge, because Calvin Coolidge — was able to get the United States’ budget way on track.  And he really was a taking-care-of-business kinda guy.
• Rick Perry: I think there’s enough presidents on Mount Rushmore already.
• Mitt Romney: I got a couple.  John Adams and Ronald Reagan.
• Herman Cain: The fifth president that belongs on Mt. Rushmore, he hasn't been president yet.  No, the one possibility up until this point would be Ronald Reagan.
• Newt Gingrich: I’ll go for five and six:  F.D.R. and Reagan.

Who would you pick for an addition to Mount Rushmore? Would you even choose anyone? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

Note: Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were also interviewed, but did not have time to get the Mount Rushmore question in their roughly two-minute lightning round.

Perry Wins Oklahoma State Fair Straw Poll

The Oklahoma County Republican Party conducted a straw poll at the Oklahoma State Fair in Oklahoma City. Rick Perry won the GOP primary portion of the poll, in which nearly two thousand ballots were cast over a ten-day period.

Whom do you expect to vote for in the Republican Presidential Primary?

Oklahoma County GOP straw poll; 1,947 votes, Sept. 15th-25th

Rick Perry - 39%
Ron Paul - 19%
Mitt Romney - 14%
Herman Cain - 11%
Michele Bachmann - 7%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Jon Huntsman - 2%
Rick Santorum - 2%

You can the rest of the results (six questions in all) here.

Cain wins Florida's 'Presidency 5' Straw Poll

Herman Cain scored an unexpected, and rather stunning, victory in today's Presidency 5 straw poll in Florida. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry had been expected to be the top contenders in the Florida GOP event, but Cain took the straw poll by storm.

1. Herman Cain - 996 (37.1%)
2. Rick Perry - 409 (15.4%)
3. Mitt Romney - 372 (14%)
4. Rick Santorum - 289 (10.9%)
5. Ron Paul - 276 (10.4%)
6. Newt Gingrich - 224 (8.4%)
7. Jon Huntsman - 60 (2.3%)
8. Michelle Bachmann - 40 (1.5%)

After an initial (and massive) surge, Rick Perry has had a difficult few weeks. This is a painful end to the week, as it continues the story-line of Perry's campaign troubles.

Also surprising about this poll was that Ron Paul (well known for targeting straw polls) came in fifth, and Michelle Bachmann came in a very distant dead last. Bachmann and Romney did both skip the event, but in a gathering of party faithful in a contentious primary, one would expect their numbers to have been higher (particularly Bachmann's).

This is very good news for Herman Cain, and will give some much-needed wind in his campaign's sails. Presidency 5 organizers like to tout the fact that the winners in their three previous straw polls (1979, 1987 and 1995) went on to become the Republican nominee every time.

State of the Race: My Take

The Ames Straw Poll is over. Tim Pawlenty is out. Rick Perry is in. The debates are taking place. Sarah Palin is still hinting. Candidates are pounding pavement in the early states.

What does the race look like right now for the GOP presidential primary? This post is my take on the landscape as it currently stands, divided into three categories of candidates.

The Contenders

I view the nomination as a battle between three individuals - Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann; or, another way to put it, Mitt Romney versus 'Not-Romney'.

Mitt Romney

After falling short in 2008, Mitt Romney finds himself at the head of the pack - and with that comes the added attention and criticism the lead man gets. Four years have given his opponents ample time to sharpen their knives, and Romney's embrace of his Massachusetts health care program (which ObamaCare was modeled after) has done little to help him on what is sure to be one of the hottest topics this cycle.

Romney is in the same position as John McCain was in 2008; almost every other candidate is to the right of him, and he is the one they all love to hate. Nevertheless, due to his large war chest, well-oiled campaign machine and experience gained in 2007-2008 on the campaign trail, he is the leader - for now. Romney's best chance is for the rest of the field to continue to be diluted, but if the grassroots begin to consolidate behind one candidate, he will be in trouble.

Rick Perry 

The big Texan has burst on the scene, and in a short time has taken this race by the horns. But does Perry have the staying power to wrestle it to the ground? Only time will tell.

As the newest kid on the block, Perry has not undergone as thorough a national vetting as the others. Expect him to hit some rough patches. However, his organization is top-notch, and has the advantage of running numerous races in one of the largest states in the Union. The transition from gubernatorial to presidential campaigning will likely be much smoother for Perry's team than it was for any other candidate.

At the moment, Perry may have the aura of the conservative's best hope to beat Romney, but the longer he is in the race, the more his record will be scrutinized, and there will be controversial issues some conservatives may find troubling. Also, Perry will still have to keep other 'Not-Romney' candidates at bay to secure the nomination.

Michele Bachmann

The feisty congresswoman from Minnesota may have been passed up by the surging Perry, but underestimate Michele Bachmann at your own peril. Bachmann is to the right of both Romney and Perry, and is well connected with the Tea Party movement, which will benefit her.

However, she does face several hurdles. First of all, nobody has gone straight to the White House from the U.S. House since James Garfield was elected in 1880 (Gerald Ford was appointed Vice President, then became President when Nixon resigned; Ford was never elected to either office). Secondly, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll rarely becomes the winner of the Iowa Caucus, or of the nomination. Her path to the nomination relies almost entirely on winning in Iowa.

Bachmann has lost some steam as the 'Not-Romney' focus has been moved to Perry for the time being, but I think she can bounce back. Perry's entrance will force Bachmann and her campaign to work harder (with Perry in, if Palin also ran it would be devastating to Michele's chances). At this stage, Bachmann is still in the top tier, and very much in the running.

The Man who will not go away

Ron Paul

The libertarian-leaning congressman from Texas almost defies categorizing. There is a definite gap between Romney/Perry/Bachmann/Paul and the rest of the crowd, with Paul in the rear of the top four. Nevertheless, I do not include him in my Contenders category.

I'm sure I'll catch some flak from the Paul crowd, but I see little room for Paul to grow, and I don't see him even getting close to winning the nomination. He holds many views that are outside the mainstream of Republican and conservative thought, and will only appeal to a limited slice of the primary electorate. Ron Paul will not be going away, but he has little room to grow.

Paul has attracted a very obsessed and zealous following, from which he raises large sums of money. However, I don't think he can spend enough money to gain enough support to win in the Republican primary. I don't see him becoming anything other than a niche candidate.

The Background Noise

Some of these candidates appeared as if they would break into the top, or at one time actually led in polling, but have since dissipated to the degree that they will have little impact on the race. Others never had a chance at all.

Herman Cain

Cain is done. It's unfortunate, because I thought he might have a shot at becoming a very serious contender, but shallow support, serious gaffes, and sub-par debate performances seem to have done him in.

Herman is a very charismatic individual and can energize the Republican base, but his political inexperience has caused problems for him on the campaign trail, and as a result, the campaign is suffering. Polling has shown a sharp drop for Cain, and I don't see him recovering.

Rick Santorum

The former senator never really had a chance to begin with. His only shot at the nomination is to win in Iowa, and that simply will not happen with Perry, Bachmann, Romney and Paul all taking significant portions of the Hawkeye electorate.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich may be an intelligent individual, but he has offended too many conservatives and been out of politics too long to be a viable candidate. His debate performances, particularly at the most recent one, have been atrocious, with Newt coming off as a grumpy old man who can't handle tough questions. Newt should hang up his hat and go home before he makes an even greater fool of himself.

Jon Huntsman

If Jon Huntsman thinks playing the moderate in the race will secure the nomination in this climate, he is sadly mistaken. Enough said.

Thad McCotter

Thad McCotter is a great guy with a dry sense of humor, but honestly, the congressman never had a remote chance at getting anywhere near the top in this primary. I don't know what he was thinking when he decided to get in.

Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson is a non-candidate for numerous reasons, the biggest of which is Ron Paul. Johnson is even more libertarian than Paul is, and that will not fly in a Republican primary. Gary would be better suited running on the Libertarian ticket - where he would meet with equal electoral non-success.

The Palin Wild-card

Sarah Palin

If Palin jumps in, which I consider unlikely, the primary game could change dramatically. Palin is immensely popular with the grassroots, and can raise a ton of money, but does popularity translate into votes? Sarah no longer polls as well as she once did, but that could change if she gets in.

Candidate Palin would immediately join the top-tier, most likely pushing Michele Bachmann out at the same time. I do think Palin has a harder time convincing people she can beat Obama; her brand has been damaged (unfairly so) that I don't know how viable she really is as a general election candidate. Nevertheless, like I said, if Sarah Palin gets in, everything changes, and that could be very positive for her.

Poll: Perry leads in Oklahoma

Perry Leads GOP Field in Oklahoma

Pat McFerron, CHS

In a survey conducted just days before he formally entered the race, Texas Governor Rick Perry holds a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Sooner State. In the survey of 215 registered Republicans in Oklahoma. Perry is the choice of 22% while Romney claims support from 17%. Michele Bachmann is a distant third in the state (8%) and is followed by Herman Cain (6%) and Newt Gingrich (5%).

In 2008, Romney finished third with just under 25% of the vote in Oklahoma’s primary, trailing both John McCain (37%) and Mike Huckabee (33%).

In addition to leading the overall ballot, Perry shows strength among key elements of the Oklahoma primary electorate. Among the most active Republican primary voters (the 24% who have voted in the last four partisan primaries), Perry’s lead is even greater (20% Perry vs. 12% Romney), though Bachmann does make a stand (19%). Perry also has a strong lead among the 20% of Republicans most interested in moral issues (21% Perry vs. 7% Romney) and the 61% who describe themselves as “strong conservatives” (30% Perry vs. 12% Romney vs. 11% Bachmann).

Romney’s most significant lead is among the 20% of Oklahoma Republicans living in households with annual incomes in excess of $100,000 (31% Romney vs. 19% Perry).

In another way to test the strength of the national candidates, Republicans were asked a follow-up question about if they would support either former Congressman J.C. Watts or U.S. Senator Tom Coburn as a favorite son in the state. In this instance, 58% of Republicans said they would support one of the “favorite son” candidates, while only 23% said they would support one of the national candidates. When looking at this question, we see that Perry’s support is slightly stronger than is Romney’s, as 68% of Romney’s supporters would opt for one of Oklahoma’s favorite sons, whereas only 54% of Perry’s would do the same.

The survey, conducted August 9-11, 2011 was the Republican portion of a 500-sample survey of voters statewide. Subscribers to Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates’ publication The Sooner Survey will get the results of the full survey. The Republican sub-sample has a margin of error is +/- 6.7%.

Also of interest is the fact that Perry’s lead is not solely in those areas bordering Texas. In fact, in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa media markets (which do not cover Texas news or politics) Perry’s lead is almost identical to what is seen statewide.

“Despite the small sample size and the time before Oklahoma’s primary, it is clear Rick Perry is the candidate to beat in Oklahoma. The cross-tabulations indicate he is already the choice of the most prolific voters, and one could expect his strength to grow in this neighboring state,” stated Pat McFerron, Director of Survey Research for Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, a position he has held since 1994. “When looking at the large number of undecided voters, there is no reason to think they would break against Perry.”

It should be noted, Tim Pawlenty was included in the study, as interviewing occurred prior to his withdrawal.

Text of questions and percentage responses follow.

1. If the Republican primary for President were held today, would you be voting for:

Rick Perry - 22%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Michele Bachmann - 8%
Herman Cain - 6%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Ron Paul - 3%
John Huntsman - 2%
Tim Pawlenty - 2%
Undecided (vol.) - 33%

2. As you may be aware, in the past, some states have run candidates known as favorite sons for President. If either JC Watts or Tom Coburn ran for President as an Oklahoma favorite son, would you vote for one of these two candidates or one of those running nationwide?

Would vote for national candidate - 23%
Would vote for Watts or Coburn - 58%
Undecided (vol.) - 18%

NOTE: in the 2008 Oklahoma presidential primary, Romney received 24% of the vote, and Ron Paul received 3%. This CHS poll shows Paul at the same level, and Romney seven points down. None of the other candidates have run for president before.

2012 Update: Haley Barbour Out, Ron Paul In?

Keeping with the theme of posts regarding the 2012 presidential election, here's the latest news.

Haley Barbour - out

Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, long rumored to be considered a run for president, announced today that he will not seek the Republican nomination, and will instead focus on his job as Governor, and as the head of the Republican Governor's Association (where he will still be involved to a great degree in the 2012 election).

Ron Paul - sorta in

Texas Congressman, physician and former presidential candidate Ron Paul is set to announce the formation of a presidential exploratory committee tomorrow afternoon in Des Moines, Iowa.

Paul will join exploratory-committee candidates Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty, Buddy Roemer, and Mitt Romney. Gary Johnson skipped the exploratory phase, and is a full-fledged, announced candidate.


Just a reminder to check out the blogs I've linked to on the right sidebar, both at the top and toward the middle of the page. In particular, for 2012 news you can hardly beat Race42012.com - a blog I've followed since the "old" days when it was Race42008.com. R4'12 is written by a diverse team: supporters of
practically every major candidate or potential candidate, and is well worth the read.