First votes from NH: Dixville Notch and Hart's Location

Political novelties Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, two tiny hamlets in New Hampshire, have cast their votes in the GOP primary. The communities are allowed by law to open voting right after midnight, and close when all registered voters complete voting (usually within minutes).

The GOP primary results from the two "first in the nation" locations:

• Mitt Romney: 7
• Ron Paul: 5
• Jon Huntsman: 4
• Newt Gingrich: 2
• Rick Perry: 1

Barack Obama received ten votes in the Democratic primary.

Iowa Caucus - final thoughts, predictions

The day has finally arrived - the 2012 presidential primary officially kicks off today with the Iowa Caucuses this evening. Who will emerge as the winners tonight? Let's take a closer look at the candidates.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney should be the clear leader in Iowa. He has the money, the name recognition, the organization, the past campaign experience in the state...... yet he has struggled to break above the low 20's in polling. Iowans, like most of the rest of the country, clearly are hesitant about him. Romney's support has stayed fairly consistent throughout the year, while practically every other candidate has leapfrogged him to the lead (and subsequently plummeted while the next 'Not Romney' candidate took the lead). I think that Romney faces a very real possibility of coming in third in Iowa. Will it hurt him? I don't think it damages him too much, because next week is the New Hampshire primary, where he has a formidable 20+ point lead. Iowa is more about who will challenge Romney than how much it helps or hurts Romney.

Ron Paul

It's no coincidence that two of the top candidates in Iowa were candidates in 2008. Ron Paul has an extensive network in this state that stems from his previous presidential run - an advantage that only Romney also enjoys among the other candidates. Polling showed Paul leading or tied with Romney until about a week ago, when his numbers slipped a few points. While I think he will be in the top three, I don't think that the undecideds will break heavily in Paul's favor, instead going to candidates like Santorum and Perry.

Rick Santorum

Santorum has been surging here in the last week and a half - fruit from spending almost his entire campaign in Iowa. Nobody has visited the state more, and it looks to finally be paying off. A week ago, he was in sixth place. Now he's in third, with an upward trajectory. More so than any other candidate, Santorum needs a top three finish in Iowa, but preferably a top two. He has practically no ground game anywhere else, so his path to the nomination depends on momentum out of Iowa. Coming in fourth kills his campaign; however, I think he has a real possibility of finishing first.

Newt Gingrich

Like Paul, Perry, Bachmann, and Herman Cain, Gingrich peaked in Iowa too early. Third place looks like the best possible scenario that Gingrich can achieve at this point, but that is pretty unlikely. Gingrich's ground organization doesn't appear to be as well organized as other candidates, a key component of performing well in caucuses. He needs new life breathed into his campaign, and a poor showing in Iowa will not help his fading chances in the next states.

Rick Perry

Perry's campaign appears to have recovered some from its earlier doldrums, and can likely jump into fourth in Iowa. A third place finish which would be very big for his campaign, but I don't think it will happen. He seems to have a good organization on the ground, and has enough money to fund operations in multiple states (unlike Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman, and possibly Gingrich). Perry needs a good showing in Iowa in order to show viability; a fifth or sixth place would be detrimental to his campaign.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann has to perform well in Iowa. She has staked most of her campaign on the state, and at one time was the frontrunner here (a title nearly every candidate has owned at one point or another). Unfortunately for her, polling just isn't showing a new spark of life - she currently is in sixth in just about every poll out there. She needs to be fourth to really justify continuing her campaign.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman opted to not compete in Iowa, and is instead focusing solely on the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. His hope is for Romney to do poorly in Iowa, in order to make the case to New Hampshire voters that Romney can't win, leaving Huntsman as the viable option.

How will it end up?

I'm going to take a stab and jot down some thoughts on the results.

Santorum - 23%
Romney - 21%
Paul - 20%
Perry - 15%
Gingrich - 10%
Bachmann - 9%
Huntsman - 2%
Other - <1%

Comment with your predictions, here or on Facebook, and see how close you get to the final results.

Poll shows Gingrich leading in Oklahoma (but take with a grain of salt)

SoonerPoll.com conducted a poll over the past month on the presidential primary here in Oklahoma. It has some interesting results, but I'll explain why it should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Newt Gingrich: 33.3%
Mitt Romney: 14.3%
Rick Perry: 9.3%
Herman Cain:  9.3% (dropped out during polling, but was kept in for consistency)
Ron Paul: 4.3%
Michele Bachmann: 3.5%
Rick Santorum: 1.5%
Jon Huntsman: 1.3%
Don't know/refused: 23.5%

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific poll Nov. 17-Dec. 16, 2011.  The survey was of 400 'Likely' Oklahoma voters who identified themselves as Republicans, with a margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

At the start of their polling, Herman Cain was still an active candidate. Upon his withdrawal, SoonerPoll had to keep his name in the poll, in order for consistency in the survey.

However, Cain's inclusion isn't the problem for me -- my hesitation is based on the length of the poll. Most surveys of this nature are done in a two to three day period, sometimes as long as a week. This one took a whole month, which seems excessive to me. With this particular election cycle, much transpires in a month's time (a prime example in this poll being Herman Cain's candidacy).

A primary poll is essentially a snapshot of the current mood of the electorate in regards to the candidates. When a poll is of this length, it loses focus, and the results become fuzzy and out of focus.

Gingrich may well have this type of a lead in Oklahoma, but I take this poll with a big grain of salt. Until another poll confirms the results, put an asterisk beside this one.

GOP Presidential Candidates' Mount Rushmore Additions

ABC News and Yahoo recently teamed up to conduct a round of interviews with the Republican presidential candidates, which included a "lightning round" covering more personal, non-political questions; you can view the synopsis here. It's an interesting and entertaining read.

One of the questions asked was about additions to Mount Rushmore.

From ABC News/Yahoo:

Question: Who should be the fifth president on Mount Rushmore?

• Jon Huntsman: Ronald Reagan, but I worked for him 100 years ago, and I saw him up close as an advance man. Very special man.
• Michele Bachmann: Well, Ronald Reagan would be a good choice.  But — I– I think just — Garfield was the last member who was — the House of Representatives, who became president of the United States — and he — and he was a very — he was a wonderful man.  But also, I’d have to say, Calvin Coolidge should be up there, too. Calvin Coolidge, because Calvin Coolidge — was able to get the United States’ budget way on track.  And he really was a taking-care-of-business kinda guy.
• Rick Perry: I think there’s enough presidents on Mount Rushmore already.
• Mitt Romney: I got a couple.  John Adams and Ronald Reagan.
• Herman Cain: The fifth president that belongs on Mt. Rushmore, he hasn't been president yet.  No, the one possibility up until this point would be Ronald Reagan.
• Newt Gingrich: I’ll go for five and six:  F.D.R. and Reagan.

Who would you pick for an addition to Mount Rushmore? Would you even choose anyone? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

Note: Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were also interviewed, but did not have time to get the Mount Rushmore question in their roughly two-minute lightning round.

Perry Wins Oklahoma State Fair Straw Poll

The Oklahoma County Republican Party conducted a straw poll at the Oklahoma State Fair in Oklahoma City. Rick Perry won the GOP primary portion of the poll, in which nearly two thousand ballots were cast over a ten-day period.

Whom do you expect to vote for in the Republican Presidential Primary?

Oklahoma County GOP straw poll; 1,947 votes, Sept. 15th-25th

Rick Perry - 39%
Ron Paul - 19%
Mitt Romney - 14%
Herman Cain - 11%
Michele Bachmann - 7%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Jon Huntsman - 2%
Rick Santorum - 2%

You can the rest of the results (six questions in all) here.

Cain wins Florida's 'Presidency 5' Straw Poll

Herman Cain scored an unexpected, and rather stunning, victory in today's Presidency 5 straw poll in Florida. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry had been expected to be the top contenders in the Florida GOP event, but Cain took the straw poll by storm.

1. Herman Cain - 996 (37.1%)
2. Rick Perry - 409 (15.4%)
3. Mitt Romney - 372 (14%)
4. Rick Santorum - 289 (10.9%)
5. Ron Paul - 276 (10.4%)
6. Newt Gingrich - 224 (8.4%)
7. Jon Huntsman - 60 (2.3%)
8. Michelle Bachmann - 40 (1.5%)

After an initial (and massive) surge, Rick Perry has had a difficult few weeks. This is a painful end to the week, as it continues the story-line of Perry's campaign troubles.

Also surprising about this poll was that Ron Paul (well known for targeting straw polls) came in fifth, and Michelle Bachmann came in a very distant dead last. Bachmann and Romney did both skip the event, but in a gathering of party faithful in a contentious primary, one would expect their numbers to have been higher (particularly Bachmann's).

This is very good news for Herman Cain, and will give some much-needed wind in his campaign's sails. Presidency 5 organizers like to tout the fact that the winners in their three previous straw polls (1979, 1987 and 1995) went on to become the Republican nominee every time.

State of the Race: My Take

The Ames Straw Poll is over. Tim Pawlenty is out. Rick Perry is in. The debates are taking place. Sarah Palin is still hinting. Candidates are pounding pavement in the early states.

What does the race look like right now for the GOP presidential primary? This post is my take on the landscape as it currently stands, divided into three categories of candidates.

The Contenders

I view the nomination as a battle between three individuals - Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann; or, another way to put it, Mitt Romney versus 'Not-Romney'.

Mitt Romney

After falling short in 2008, Mitt Romney finds himself at the head of the pack - and with that comes the added attention and criticism the lead man gets. Four years have given his opponents ample time to sharpen their knives, and Romney's embrace of his Massachusetts health care program (which ObamaCare was modeled after) has done little to help him on what is sure to be one of the hottest topics this cycle.

Romney is in the same position as John McCain was in 2008; almost every other candidate is to the right of him, and he is the one they all love to hate. Nevertheless, due to his large war chest, well-oiled campaign machine and experience gained in 2007-2008 on the campaign trail, he is the leader - for now. Romney's best chance is for the rest of the field to continue to be diluted, but if the grassroots begin to consolidate behind one candidate, he will be in trouble.

Rick Perry 

The big Texan has burst on the scene, and in a short time has taken this race by the horns. But does Perry have the staying power to wrestle it to the ground? Only time will tell.

As the newest kid on the block, Perry has not undergone as thorough a national vetting as the others. Expect him to hit some rough patches. However, his organization is top-notch, and has the advantage of running numerous races in one of the largest states in the Union. The transition from gubernatorial to presidential campaigning will likely be much smoother for Perry's team than it was for any other candidate.

At the moment, Perry may have the aura of the conservative's best hope to beat Romney, but the longer he is in the race, the more his record will be scrutinized, and there will be controversial issues some conservatives may find troubling. Also, Perry will still have to keep other 'Not-Romney' candidates at bay to secure the nomination.

Michele Bachmann

The feisty congresswoman from Minnesota may have been passed up by the surging Perry, but underestimate Michele Bachmann at your own peril. Bachmann is to the right of both Romney and Perry, and is well connected with the Tea Party movement, which will benefit her.

However, she does face several hurdles. First of all, nobody has gone straight to the White House from the U.S. House since James Garfield was elected in 1880 (Gerald Ford was appointed Vice President, then became President when Nixon resigned; Ford was never elected to either office). Secondly, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll rarely becomes the winner of the Iowa Caucus, or of the nomination. Her path to the nomination relies almost entirely on winning in Iowa.

Bachmann has lost some steam as the 'Not-Romney' focus has been moved to Perry for the time being, but I think she can bounce back. Perry's entrance will force Bachmann and her campaign to work harder (with Perry in, if Palin also ran it would be devastating to Michele's chances). At this stage, Bachmann is still in the top tier, and very much in the running.

The Man who will not go away

Ron Paul

The libertarian-leaning congressman from Texas almost defies categorizing. There is a definite gap between Romney/Perry/Bachmann/Paul and the rest of the crowd, with Paul in the rear of the top four. Nevertheless, I do not include him in my Contenders category.

I'm sure I'll catch some flak from the Paul crowd, but I see little room for Paul to grow, and I don't see him even getting close to winning the nomination. He holds many views that are outside the mainstream of Republican and conservative thought, and will only appeal to a limited slice of the primary electorate. Ron Paul will not be going away, but he has little room to grow.

Paul has attracted a very obsessed and zealous following, from which he raises large sums of money. However, I don't think he can spend enough money to gain enough support to win in the Republican primary. I don't see him becoming anything other than a niche candidate.

The Background Noise

Some of these candidates appeared as if they would break into the top, or at one time actually led in polling, but have since dissipated to the degree that they will have little impact on the race. Others never had a chance at all.

Herman Cain

Cain is done. It's unfortunate, because I thought he might have a shot at becoming a very serious contender, but shallow support, serious gaffes, and sub-par debate performances seem to have done him in.

Herman is a very charismatic individual and can energize the Republican base, but his political inexperience has caused problems for him on the campaign trail, and as a result, the campaign is suffering. Polling has shown a sharp drop for Cain, and I don't see him recovering.

Rick Santorum

The former senator never really had a chance to begin with. His only shot at the nomination is to win in Iowa, and that simply will not happen with Perry, Bachmann, Romney and Paul all taking significant portions of the Hawkeye electorate.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich may be an intelligent individual, but he has offended too many conservatives and been out of politics too long to be a viable candidate. His debate performances, particularly at the most recent one, have been atrocious, with Newt coming off as a grumpy old man who can't handle tough questions. Newt should hang up his hat and go home before he makes an even greater fool of himself.

Jon Huntsman

If Jon Huntsman thinks playing the moderate in the race will secure the nomination in this climate, he is sadly mistaken. Enough said.

Thad McCotter

Thad McCotter is a great guy with a dry sense of humor, but honestly, the congressman never had a remote chance at getting anywhere near the top in this primary. I don't know what he was thinking when he decided to get in.

Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson is a non-candidate for numerous reasons, the biggest of which is Ron Paul. Johnson is even more libertarian than Paul is, and that will not fly in a Republican primary. Gary would be better suited running on the Libertarian ticket - where he would meet with equal electoral non-success.

The Palin Wild-card

Sarah Palin

If Palin jumps in, which I consider unlikely, the primary game could change dramatically. Palin is immensely popular with the grassroots, and can raise a ton of money, but does popularity translate into votes? Sarah no longer polls as well as she once did, but that could change if she gets in.

Candidate Palin would immediately join the top-tier, most likely pushing Michele Bachmann out at the same time. I do think Palin has a harder time convincing people she can beat Obama; her brand has been damaged (unfairly so) that I don't know how viable she really is as a general election candidate. Nevertheless, like I said, if Sarah Palin gets in, everything changes, and that could be very positive for her.