Thursday, March 31, 2022

Poll: Lankford, Stitt, Mullin lead respective races by large margins

Here's the latest poll of the Oklahoma election landscape, from Amber Integrated.

Key takeaways:
  • U.S. Sen. James Lankford leads Jackson Lahmeyer. Massively.
  • Gov. Kevin Stitt leads Mark Sherwood in the GOP primary (massively) and holds a consistent 14% lead over RINO-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister in the general.
  • U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin has the very early lead in the U.S. Senate special election. 
  • Voters don't care about COVID.

Amber Integrated Releases Survey on Upcoming Primary and General Elections

OKLAHOMA CITY – The Oklahoma-based public affairs firm Amber Integrated has released two surveys measuring attitudes about the current political environment and the upcoming primary and general elections in Oklahoma.

The first of these surveys was conducted from March 24-27, 2022 and included a pool of 455 likely GOP primary voters in Oklahoma.  It has a margin of error of 4.59% at a 95% confidence interval. 

The second of these surveys was also conducted from March 24-27, 2022, and included a pool of 500 likely general election voters in Oklahoma. This survey has a margin of error of 4.38% at a 95% confidence interval. 

Toplines and crosstabs for both surveys are available here.

Some key observations from both surveys are below:

GOP Primary Survey

  • Gov. Kevin Stitt holds a commanding lead in the GOP gubernatorial primary, with 59% of voters saying they will vote for Stitt or “lean towards” voting for Stitt. Fifteen percent of voters say they will vote for his opponent, Mark Sherwood, or lean towards voting for him.
  • Gentner Drummond has a notable lead over Stitt-appointed Attorney General John O’Connor. Thirty-seven percent of likely Republican primary voters say they will vote or lean towards voting for Drummond, while 16% say the same of O’Connor. Forty-seven percent remain undecided.
  • Sixty-three percent of likely GOP voters say they will vote for or lean towards voting for U.S. Senator James Lankford in his reelection bid, compared to just 10% who say they support or lean towards his opponent Jackson Lahmeyer.
  • With the support of 39% of likely GOP voters, U.S. Representative Markwayne Mullin has an early lead over his other opponents for the race to fill retiring U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe’s seat. Former Oklahoma House of Representatives Speaker T.W. Shannon has the support of 14% of likely Republican voters, followed by Oklahoma Senator Nathan Dahm (6%) and Inhofe Chief of Staff Luke Holland (2%). Thirty-eight percent remain undecided.  
  • Voters are overwhelmingly undecided on primary races further down the ballot, with 77% of voters undecided on the race for state superintendent of education and 72% undecided on both state treasurer and corporation commissioner.

Likely Voter/ General Election Survey

  • Former U.S. President Donald Trump is popular; current U.S. President Joe Biden is not. Trump has a 52% approval rating among all likely voters (and a 73% approval rating among Republicans), compared to just a 38% disapproval rating (+15%).  Joe Biden’s approval rating, on the other hand, stands at 28% with a 64% disapproval rating (-36%). 
  • Governor Kevin Stitt’s job approval rating has taken a slight hit, but his lead against State Superintendent Joy Hofmeister in the general election is holding. In December 2021, Stitt had a job approval rating of 51% and a disapproval rating of 37%, a +14% net positive. That has shifted to a job approval rating of 47% and a 44% disapproval rating, a +3% net positive. However, his lead on the ballot is virtually untouched: in December 2021, he led Hofmeister 43% to 29% (+14%); in March 2022 that lead is at 44% to 30% (still +14%). 
  • Likely voters care about the economy and education, not COVID. Thirty-three percent of voters listed “jobs and the economy” as the number one state issue, up from 28% in December 2021. Education received a large bump, moving from 15% in December 2021 to 26% in March 2022. Other priorities included “law and order” (10%), immigration (9%), and health care (7%). COVID was listed as the number one issue for just 2% of likely voters, including 5% of Democrats, 1% of Republicans and 0% of independents and libertarians. 

About Amber Integrated:

Amber Integrated is a fully integrated public affairs firm, offering services in lobbying and government relations, political campaign consulting, media relations and communications, digital marketing and advertising, and survey research. Amber Integrated focuses on analytically driven strategies, quantitative research and digitally focused campaigns that deliver successful outcomes for our clients, which include Fortune 500 companies, elected officials, non-profits, and businesses of all sizes.


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