Poll shocker: Fallin 45%, Dorman 40%

 In a stunner of a poll, nationally respected pollster Scott Rasmussen finds Oklahoma's incumbent Republican Governor Mary Fallin leading Democratic nominee Joe Dorman by just 5%.

Oklahoma Governor: Fallin (R) 45%, Dorman (D) 40%

Rasmussen Reports

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Oklahoma is rated Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 15-16, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Read the rest here.

Map: Democrat State Superintendent Primary Results

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While I was working on the Democrat's Senate primary map, I decided to also do their State Superintendent primary. Since, the GOP side was unexpectedly lopsided (Joy Hofmeister won every county, and incumbent superintendent Janet Barresi came in third out of three candidates), I was curious to see the other side.

John Cox came out on top with 68,889 votes, Freda Deskin was a close second with 64,135, while Jack Herron had 22,335 and Ivan Holmes got 12,504. Cox and Deskin are now in a runoff, the winner of which will face Hofmeister in the general election.

Cox received over 70% of the vote in some far eastern counties, while Deskin ran in the upper 40s and low 50s in the OKC and Tulsa metros.

Oklahoma Democrat Senate Primary Map

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Just for fun, I threw together this map of the Democrat's primary, in which State Sen. Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers advanced to the runoff. The winner of that August 26th contest will be the Democratic nominee facing James Lankford in the general election.

Johnson received 71,462 votes to Rogers' 57,598 and Hayes' 33,943. Johnson's lead (13,864) came almost entirely from Oklahoma County (13,389 lead over Rogers).

The Oklahoma Democratic Party is in pretty sad shape when a sitting state senator can barely edge out a perennial candidate who does little-to-no campaigning.

Speaking of the ODP's "last best hope", the Oklahoman recently had a good article on Jim Rogers, which you can read here.

Hofmeister speaking in Muskogee on Thursday

From the Muskogee County GOP:

The Muskogee County Republicans & Conservatives Club will be holding their July meeting on Thursday, July 17th in the Muskogee Public Library's southeast meeting room starting at 7:00pm. Guest speaker for this event will be Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee for State Superintendent of Education. Come learn more about Joy's vision for education in Oklahoma, and visit with local Republicans and conservatives.

Russell gets Tea Party Express endorsement in 5th District runoff, leads Douglas by 10%

Former state senator and retired Army Lt. Col. Steve Russell, frontrunner in the 5th Congressional District Republican runoff, has had some big news in the past two weeks. First, he was endorsed by the Tea Party Express, and today he released a poll showing him with a 10-point lead.

Tea Party Express Endorses Steve Russell for Congress

Sacramento, CA – Tea Party Express, the nation’s largest Tea Party political action committee, is proud to endorse Steve Russell for Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District.

Tea Party Express Executive Director Taylor Budowich said, “Steve Russell is exactly the kind of conservative leader we need to send to Congress. For 21-years Steve courageously defended the Constitution and protected our country as an Army Ranger. As a Lietutenant Colonel, Steve’s ability to lead, even in the face of danger and opposition is unquestioned.

“After serving our country in the military, Steve went on to serve Oklahomans in the State Senate. He fought to reduce taxes and protect the Constitution. After four years of service in the legislature, Steve decided to start a small rifle manufacturing business. At every turn Steve has worked to protect his country and improve his community. He is a dedicated public servant and a bold conservative,” Budowich concluded.

Read the rest of the press release here, complete with comments from various Oklahoma Tea Party leaders across the state.

Poll shows Steve Russell has commanding lead in 5th District Runoff

Lt. Col. Steve Russell, GOP Candidate for Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, shows a 10-point lead in a new poll released today. The poll was conducted by the JMC Enterprises on July 8th and sampled 419 voters in the 5th District.

The results are:
Lt. Col. Steve Russell: 41%
Patrice Douglas: 31%
Undecided: 28%
Margin of Error: +/-4.8%

“I am happy to see the voters of the 5th District responding to our positive campaign,” Steve Russell says. “This momentum is because the people believe that our country is still worth fighting for. I’m optimistic about our future and I think the voters join me in that feeling.”

Steve Russell won the June 24th GOP Primary with 26.6% of the vote in a six-person race. It appears he will maintain that lead into the runoff election on August 26th.

“We’ve had a great time meeting and speaking with voters almost every day,” says Russell. “I appreciate the groundswell of support from each and every one of them. Oklahomans want leaders to represent them in Washington who know how to get things done. I will not let them down.”

TheOkie.com has more of the crosstabs information here.

Outside groups blame AH Strategies, Fount Holland for Shannon's loss

Fount Holland: founder of AH Strategies and main consultant 

for T.W. Shannon's Senate campaign

From TheOkie:

Consultants cast blame for T.W. Shannon disappointment

By Tarini Parti

For a candidate who was seen as a future star in the Republican Party, T.W. Shannon’s campaign was “operating like it was 1998,” according to consultants working on the race — ultimately leading to the highly-touted Oklahoma Senate hopeful’s blowout loss to Rep. James Lankford in Tuesday’s primary.

Shannon’s choice of campaign consultants, strategy, ground game and digital efforts — or lack thereof — are all being blamed in part for his stunningly-decisive defeat, according to some Republican consultants close to the campaign who view the former state House speaker’s failure to even push the race to a runoff as a wasted opportunity for a candidate that just two months ago was attracting extensive national attention and exciting the conservative base.

Lankford, linked to the establishment through his position in House leadership, defeated Shannon, 57 percent to 34 percent, easily avoiding the expected August 26 runoff in the race for the GOP nomination for retiring Sen. Tom Coburn’s seat.

The blame game in Shannon’s camp and Team Lankford’s victory lap — both grand traditions in politics — began immediately after the outcome was determined. Republicans affiliated with conservative outside groups supporting Shannon and those close to his campaign said the consulting firms the campaign hired — AH Strategies, Majority Designs, and others — were all Oklahoma-based firms whose strategy of spending every dime on TV ads and direct mail works for state races but is insufficient for a U.S. Senate race.

“They all just stuck their heads in the sand and didn’t want to listen,” said one Republican strategist close to the campaign.

Read the rest of this interesting article here.

Election Results Map: Lankford vs. Shannon visualized

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This map shows the counties where Lankford and Shannon either had the plurality (leading, less than 50%), or the majority (over 50% of the vote).

Lankford, Hofmeister win and avoid runoffs

James Lankford surpassed most expectations -- and all polling data -- and cruised to total victory in today's primary election, gaining over 57% of the vote to T.W. Shannon's 34%.

Joy Hofmeister destroyed incumbent State Superintendent Janet Barresi's reelection bid, taking in 57% of the vote. Barresi actually came in third with 21.1%, behind no-name candidate Brian Kelly (21.6%).

View the full results here.

My Primary Election Predictions

With the polls closing in a few minutes, here are my predictions/guesses on how the voting will shake out.

U.S. Senate (unexpired term): Lankford 51%, Shannon 39%, Brogdon 6%, all others 4% (in this order: Crow, Weger, McCray, Craig) -- NO RUNOFF
U.S. Senate (full term): Inhofe over 75%
Governor: Fallin 65%, Ewbank 20%, Moody 15%
State Superintendent: Hofmeister 49%, Barresi 36%, Kelly 15% -- RUNOFF
Insurance Commissioner: Doak 78%, Viner 22%
Corporation Commissioner: Hiett 54%, Branan 46%

U.S. House (District 2): Mullin 63%, Robertson 37%
U.S. House (District 3): Lucas 62%, Hubbard 30%, Murray 8%
U.S. House (District 4): Cole 69%, Flatt 31%
U.S. House (District 5): Russell 25%, Douglas 22%, Turner 18%, Jolley 17%, Sparks 10%, Jett 8% -- RUNOFF

DEMOCRATS
U.S. Senate (unexpired term): Jim Rogers wins, but it goes to a runoff with Connie Johnson.
State Superintendent: Freda Deskin wins, but goes to runoff with John Cox.
U.S. House (District 5): Guild wins, goes to runoff with McAffrey.

Primary Election: My Take

Due to recent family events, I have been unable to blog much in the last week or so about the primary election, coming up tomorrow (Tuesday the 24th). This post will briefly cover some of my picks -- although not as thorough as I might have done were circumstances different.

U.S. Senate (unexpired term): James Lankford
Either way, we will have a conservative Senator replacing Tom Coburn. However, while I disagree with some of Lankford's votes, I have fewer reservations with him than I do with Shannon. Brogdon is a total non-factor, and has a bad habit of exhibiting poor judgement (i.e. when he got into the governor's race on Christmas, then switched to Senate, etc).
U.S. House, District 2: Darrel Robertson
U.S. House, District 5: Steve Russell
Governor: Dax Ewbank
I have been very disappointed with Fallin as governor, and will be casting a protest vote for Ewbank.
State Superintendent: ???
I am still undecided in this race. Barresi has alienated many conservatives while in office, but at the same time others are wary of Hofmeister's connections. I'm open to be convinced.
Insurance Commissioner: John Doak
Corporation Commissioner: Todd Hiett
Muskogee County Commissioner, District 1: Ken Doke
It's a shame that Muskogee County Republicans have a primary in this race, and both Ken and Mike Stewart would be great county commissioners. However, I think Ken has the best chance at winning this heavily Democratic seat, and will bring a different, more conservative approach to the office.
Rogers County Treasurer: Jason Carini
Jason is a good friend of mine, and threw his hat into the ring when nobody else would do something about the problems at the Rogers County Treasurer's office. Here's a good synopsis on BatesLine.

Michael Bates has a good post on his take, although he and I differ on a few races. Read his here.

Final Senate Race Poll Graphic: Lankford's slow climb

With election day tomorrow, here is where things currently stand. James Lankford has shown a steady and slow increase in polling, while T.W. Shannon has held in the mid to upper 30's. Randy Brogdon continues to poll under 5%, and the other four candidates combine for about the same as Brogdon's total.

In his own words: one-on-one with James Lankford (part 2)

I recently conducted a telephone interview with U.S. Senate candidate and 5th District Congressman James Lankford. This is the second half of the interview (read the first half here):

JF: The federal tax system is a mess. What do you propose to do to fix it?
JL: I’m a FairTax person. I would much rather prefer to have the FairTax. The problem we have is only about 60 people in the House of Representatives are supporters of the FairTax. You’ve got to have 218 people to be able to do anything, to move any set of ideas in the House. We don’t have the majority. The Flat Tax people are in the same spot. They don’t have near the number to be able to form a coalition large enough to be able to move the Flat Tax. And now we’re stuck with “what can we do?”

Dealing with deductions and rates. Our rates are too high, both for businesses and for individuals, and you’ve added in all these deductions over the years to try to fix a very high rate. It’s better to just lower the rate and to take out all those special treatments, so that we can simplify the code as much as we possibly can. The code should be neutral. The best thing that we can have is an IRS that is not looking over everyone’s shoulder trying to evaluate what they can do for free speech, or what they can do with their own group. It’s simpler just to be able to say, “how can we have an IRS, that is a clear code” and individuals know how to follow it, and remove all that interpretation as much as possible from the IRS. It removes the power of the IRS. That’s why I like the FairTax system, because it renders any kind of tax collection as simply that, and not an interpretation.

JF: Some grassroots conservatives have become disenchanted with Republican leadership in both the House and the Senate. Do you think it is time for Senate Republicans to look at having, perhaps, new leadership?
JL: I think I’d be saying that every group will look at both the House and the Senate, it has to be decided every time, but there’s two aspects that go into that. Number one is, who’s actually running for leadership? A lot of people talk about leadership issues, but they don’t actually run for leadership. It’s akin to someone saying, “we ought to have a new Congressman”, or “we ought to have a new Senator in this state”, and someone says “great, then why don’t you run?”, and they say “well, I don’t want to do it, I just think we ought to have somebody else do it”. We find that commonly in House leadership and Senate leadership as well. People complain about leadership, but no one else wants to actually run and do it and stick their neck out, and actually try to accomplish it. Now should the House, and should the Senate press leadership to be as conservative as possible? Actually, we should. One of the reasons I got engaged in House leadership was to be able to press our leadership as far to the right as we can get them. And there have been moments when, in closed door meetings, I’ve been able to plead my case why a more conservative move is better, and won the argument. The only way that you can do that is to actually get engaged and do it. You can’t do it from the outside. For me, it’s a big issue. I do want to make one thing clear, though. People try to make House leadership the problem. I can assure you – Harry Reid and Barack Obama are the bigger problem. The more that Republicans beat up on other Republicans the more we take the focus off where it should be, and that is Harry Reid and Barack Obama.

JF: What do you consider to be your greatest accomplishment thus far in elected office?
JL: That’s a tough one, Jamison. I try to narrow it down to one thing or something to say this is the greatest accomplishment, but there’s just different directions that I’ve been able to focus on. Let me just throw a couple. I asked to be on the Budget Committee when I first went to Congress, because of the significant issue of how do we get on top of our budget. Four years in a row, of putting a budget on the floor, that actually takes steps to balance, is very significant. The move in the House is still this little bit of fear and trepidation about doing an aggressive budget to move us back toward balance. But, in the committee that I serve on, we’ve been able to push and say “We have to do this. We’ve got to get us back toward balance. We’ve got to show the American people there is a way to do this.”

I’ve been able to push very hard on the Administration in several areas of oversight. While a lot of people talk about these oversight hearings don’t accomplish anything - that’s not proven to be true. The Administration wasn’t doing permitting for the export of liquefied natural gas until I started pushing. And now they’re starting to permit the export of LNG, and this was before we dealt with the Ukraine issues, because I was pushing. The Administration snuck their rule on the social cost of carbon, and to change all the rulemaking on how we do power generation, on everything that uses electricity in America, and I was able to confront them, and they abandoned their rule change and backed off. So, oversight does work. You can push back and win on some of these issues.

I passed a bill called the Taxpayer Right to Know. That is a bill to combat our duplication in government, and one of the major issues we’ve dealt with for a long time is how do we get rid of the waste in government. That bill passed the House, Dr. Coburn has now picked it up in the Senate, and is running with it in the Senate. It is a real solution to get at our duplication in government that we have not had before. It may take a while to get that through.

The fourth thing on this list is the continual push to try to get things back to the states. We made a major change in our transportation bill, that came through two years ago, to give states more authority to make decisions on their highway dollars, and to keep that out of Washington D.C. That was a huge change that’s really made a difference on our construction in our state. I’m pushing the same thing with ObamaCare. The Healthcare Compact that I’m running in the House is starting to build some momentum, and if we can get people to wake up and look at it and say “the states can run healthcare issues far better than the federal government can”, it’s a bold idea that has never been picked up and run in the House on the federal side, and I’m picking it up and running with it. It’s just the right way to go.

JF: Why should voters elect you over your primary opponents?
JL: Well, I’m the only redhead, so, clearly that’s an advantage. I am a person that is really committed to doing my homework, studying the issues, and doing the work behind the scenes. That’s who I am. I’m really did not enter into the fray of the national battle three years ago because I wanted to do a political career. There are major issues that have to be resolved. I felt called in 2009 to run for Congress, and to do what I could to make a difference. I feel that same calling now to step into the Senate and do what I can to be able to serve God and the nation. So I’m gonna not just gripe about the fact that there are problems, and say we have gridlock, I’m gonna find a way to be able to move some of these ideas and move us toward the most conservative solutions, and to try to get some things actually done. What I’ve done in the House is what I’m going to continue to do in the Senate.

You can learn more about James Lankford and his campaign for U.S. Senate by visiting JamesLankford.com.

Once again, I'd like to thank James for doing this interview with me. I offered the same chance to T.W. Shannon, but he and his campaign refused to accept.