Thursday, May 15, 2014

News9/News on 6 poll: Lankford 34%, Shannon 32%

Oklahoma City's News9 and Tulsa's News on 6 commissioned a poll with SoonerPoll on the U.S. Senate and State Superintendent's races. The results are interesting, but still show a statistical tie between James Lankford and T.W. Shannon, with Lankford ahead by two points. This is the first poll released by an entity not tied to any campaign; the previous polls that have been made public have been commissioned either by the Lankford or Shannon campaigns, or by the outside organizations supporting them.


James Lankford - 33.8%
T.W. Shannon - 31.9%
Randy Brogdon - 4.5%
Kevin Crow - 1.7%
Jason Weger - 1.5%
Andy Craig - 0.6%
Eric McCray - 0.6%
Unsure - 25.4%

Survey of 580 likely Republican Primary voters, taken May 5th-10th. MoE +/- 4.07%.

You can view the full crosstabs here. There is some very interesting information buried in the results. Here's the update to my rolling poll graphic and average:

Updated April-May poll average:
Lankford: 33.5%
Shannon: 32.6%
Brogdon: 4.7%
Other: 2.9%
Undecided: 26.3%

SoonerPoll survey results by Congressional District: 

1st Congressional District
T.W. Shannon - 39.9%
James Lankford - 14.0%
Randy Brogdon - 10.9%
Kevin Crow - 2.2%
Jason Weger - 1.7%
Andy Craig - 0.4%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 30.9%

2nd Congressional District
T.W. Shannon - 40.5%
James Lankford - 16.9%
Randy Brogdon - 2.8%
Kevin Crow - 1.9%
Jason Weger - 2.3%
Andy Craig - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 35.6%

3rd Congressional District
James Lankford - 37.3%
T.W. Shannon - 27.9%
Randy Brogdon - 3.4%
Kevin Crow - 2.5%
Eric McCray - 2.3%
Jason Weger - 1.9%
Andy Craig - 0%
Unsure - 24.6%

4th Congressional District
James Lankford - 40.8%
T.W. Shannon - 35.1%
Andy Craig - 3.0%
Randy Brogdon - 1.4%
Kevin Crow - 1.5%
Jason Weger - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 18.1%

5th Congressional District
James Lankford - 59.4%
T.W. Shannon - 18.7%
Jason Weger - 1.7%
Randy Brogdon - 1.0%
Kevin Crow - 0%
Andy Craig - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 19.1%

Granted, these results have to be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample sizes per district would have a margin of error greater than the statewide total, but they give a picture of what the ground may be looking like. I may post more later on the crosstabs, but if not, dig into them for yourself.

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