SoonerPoll survey shows Shannon trailing Lankford among Tea Party, conservative, and religious voters

Continuing the dissection of the recent News9/KOTV/SoonerPoll survey on the Senate race, here are some key questions asked in the poll. T.W. Shannon trails James Lankford among voters who are supportive of the Tea Party, identify as conservatives, and are more religious.

Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate or conservative in your political beliefs?
Very conservative (39.3%): Lankford 41.1%, Shannon 38.0%
Somewhat conservative (30.6%): Lankford 37.5%, Shannon 27.3%
Moderate (21.9%): Shannon 29.3%, Lankford 26.2%
Somewhat liberal (6.2%): Shannon 32.1%, Crow 11.7%, Lankford 10.9%
Very liberal (2.1%): Shannon 37.9%, Weger 29.4%, Lankford 15.3%

Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE opinion of the Tea Party?
Very favorable (29.7%): Shannon 35.8%, Lankford 34.0%
Somewhat favorable (37.0%): Lankford 41.7%, Shannon 35.2%
Unfavorable (13.9%): Shannon 25.5%, Lankford 24.6%
Very unfavorable (6.2%): Shannon 40.2%, Lankford 16.3%

Do you think the Tea Party has too much influence, too little influence, or the right amount of influence in the Republican Party today?

Too little (31.2%): Lankford 34.1%, Shannon 29.8%

Right amount (35.1%): Lankford 39.0%, Shannon 36.8%

Too much (17.9%): Shannon 32.4%, Lankford 26.7%

How often do you attend religious services?

Once a week or more (61.5%): Lankford 35.8%, Shannon 28.6%

Occasionally throughout year (23.1%): Shannon 38.2%, Lankford 28.8%

Just major holidays (5.3%): Lankford 51.2%, Shannon 38.3%

Never (10.2%): Shannon 44.9%, Lankford 26.1%

View the crosstabs for yourself here (pdf).

News9/News on 6 poll: Lankford 34%, Shannon 32%

Oklahoma City's News9 and Tulsa's News on 6 commissioned a poll with SoonerPoll on the U.S. Senate and State Superintendent's races. The results are interesting, but still show a statistical tie between James Lankford and T.W. Shannon, with Lankford ahead by two points. This is the first poll released by an entity not tied to any campaign; the previous polls that have been made public have been commissioned either by the Lankford or Shannon campaigns, or by the outside organizations supporting them.

News9/News on 6/SoonerPoll U.S. Senate GOP Primary Poll (pdf)

James Lankford - 33.8%
T.W. Shannon - 31.9%
Randy Brogdon - 4.5%
Kevin Crow - 1.7%
Jason Weger - 1.5%
Andy Craig - 0.6%
Eric McCray - 0.6%
Unsure - 25.4%

Survey of 580 likely Republican Primary voters, taken May 5th-10th. MoE +/- 4.07%.

You can view the full crosstabs here. There is some very interesting information buried in the results. Here's the update to my rolling poll graphic and average:

Updated April-May poll average:

Lankford: 33.5%
Shannon: 32.6%
Brogdon: 4.7%
Other: 2.9%
Undecided: 26.3%

SoonerPoll survey results by Congressional District: 

1st Congressional District
T.W. Shannon - 39.9%
James Lankford - 14.0%
Randy Brogdon - 10.9%
Kevin Crow - 2.2%
Jason Weger - 1.7%
Andy Craig - 0.4%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 30.9%

2nd Congressional District
T.W. Shannon - 40.5%
James Lankford - 16.9%
Randy Brogdon - 2.8%
Kevin Crow - 1.9%
Jason Weger - 2.3%
Andy Craig - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 35.6%

3rd Congressional District
James Lankford - 37.3%
T.W. Shannon - 27.9%
Randy Brogdon - 3.4%
Kevin Crow - 2.5%
Eric McCray - 2.3%
Jason Weger - 1.9%
Andy Craig - 0%
Unsure - 24.6%

4th Congressional District
James Lankford - 40.8%
T.W. Shannon - 35.1%
Andy Craig - 3.0%
Randy Brogdon - 1.4%
Kevin Crow - 1.5%
Jason Weger - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 18.1%

5th Congressional District
James Lankford - 59.4%
T.W. Shannon - 18.7%
Jason Weger - 1.7%
Randy Brogdon - 1.0%
Kevin Crow - 0%
Andy Craig - 0%
Eric McCray - 0%
Unsure - 19.1%

Granted, these results have to be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample sizes per district would have a margin of error greater than the statewide total, but they give a picture of what the ground may be looking like. I may post more later on the crosstabs, but if not, dig into them for yourself.

Recap: Current Candidates for Coburn's Senate seat

As of right now, there are eight Republicans planning to run for the U.S. Senate seat Dr. Tom Coburn is vacating. Yes, you read that right. Eight.

Here they are, in alphabetical order, along with a link to their respective campaign websites:

Randy Brogdon

Andy Craig

Kevin Crow

James Lankford

Eric McCray

Evelyn Rogers

T.W. Shannon

Jason Weger

You can keep track of the latest candidate listings, for federal and statewide office, by clicking this link. I have posted a shortcut to the post at the top-left of the blog, and list the date of the most recent update.

Internal Poll: Lankford 47%, Shannon 17%, Crow 3%

According to an internal poll released by the Lankford campaign, James Lankford continues to hold a formidable lead in the Republican primary to replace Sen. Tom Coburn.

Tarrance Group Oklahoma Senate Republican Primary

James Lankford - 47%
T.W. Shannon - 17%
Kevin Crow - 3%
Other/Undecided - 33%

Poll of 500 likely Republican voters, taken February 10-12, with a MoE of +/- 4.9%

Randy Brogdon was not included because at the time of the poll, he was not in the race.

The only other publicly released poll on the race was conducted January 30th-February 1st, and had Lankford at 54%, Shannon at 18%, and Jason Weger at 1%.

Lankford holding Muskogee town hall on Thursday

Congressman and U.S. Senate candidate James Lankford will be holding a public town hall meeting in Muskogee on Thursday (February 20th), from 1pm to 2pm at the Oklahoma Music Hall of Fame.
Lankford will be facing T.W. Shannon, Kevin Crow, Jason Weger, and Randy Brogdon in the GOP primary to replace Dr. Tom Coburn.

Chickasha professor to join GOP primary for U.S. Senate

Dr. Kevin Crow

Dr. Kevin Crow, associate professor of history at the University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma, plans to announce his candidacy for U.S. Senate next week.

According to an announcement on his Facebook page, Crow, a Chickasha resident, will make his plans public at the Canadian Valley Technology Center in Chickasha on Thursday, February 13th, at 6:30pm.

Crow would be joining announced candidates Congressman James Lankford, State House Speaker T.W. Shannon, and Jason Weger.