Dilemma: who will Dems pick for possible CD2 special election?

With the prospect of a 2nd Congressional District special election looming, and the need to select a substitute candidate, the Oklahoma Democratic Party is in a pickle.

Their Party is in electoral shambles. They have not won a statewide race since 2006, and lost their lone congressional district to the GOP in 2012 after Dan Boren did not seek reelection. They are down to a mere eight seats in the 48-seat State Senate, and outnumbered 72-29 in the State House.

What's a Party to do in such a circumstance?

ODP Chairman Wallace Collins has told the media that they are considering "10 to 12" candidates to substitute for deceased nominee Earl Everett in a hypothetical (but likely) special election. Their new nominee would go up against GOP incumbent Markwayne Mullin and Independent Jon Douthitt, who received 70% and 5.4% in the November 4th election, respectively.

So, who would might they be considering? I'll take some guesses, and throw out some possibilities (some more realistic than others). I'll rate them on Likelihood of being selected, and Competitiveness in a 2nd District election.

Listed in order of my "competitiveness" rating, we start with...

BRAD HENRY
Likelihood: 0-0.5
Competitiveness: 10
Review: Brad Henry would probably be the most viable candidate the Democrats could put forward, and since residence in the district is not a requirement for federal offices, that wouldn't be a hindrance for a Henry candidacy. Henry is easily the most popular Democrat in Oklahoma, and won the 2nd District counties by huge margins in his gubernatorial races. However, the likelihood of Henry going for it is practically nil, so Republicans can breath a sigh of relief.

DREW EDMONDSON
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 8
Review: Drew Edmondson is an intriguing option for the Democrats. Edmonson has deep ties to the 2nd District; his father Ed was 2nd District congressman from 1953 to 1973 (the U.S. Courthouse in Muskogee is name after him), and his brother James is on the Oklahoma Supreme Court. Drew was the Muskogee County DA from 1983 to 1995. Drew would probably be pretty competitive, but at 68 years old, it's doubtful he'd want to re-enter the political world.

BRAD CARSON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 7

Review: Carson held the seat from 2000 to 2004, before losing the U.S. Senate race to his 2nd District predecessor, Tom Coburn. He expressed interest in the seat again when Boren made his announcement in June 2011, but changed his mind later in the month, and was appointed Under Secretary of the Army in September 2011. Would he be interested in leaving his Army post for a tough Congressional race? I doubt it.

JOE DORMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 6

Review: Dorman lives in the 4th District, but was just on the ballot for Governor and as such has high name recognition. He got around 43% of the gubernatorial vote in the 2nd District, which was slightly higher than he got statewide, and won four of the six counties he won are in the 2nd District. I could see the ODP trying to get Dorman to step in here.

JERRY ELLIS
Likelihood: 7
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Ellis termed out of the State Senate this year, and has put his name in with the ODP Central Committee. I view Ellis as the most likely pick for the Democrats. However, I don't see him as all that competitive, for several reasons. His old seat went Republican on Tuesday, Mullin has a significant bank account still and will far outraise any Democrat, and Ellis has practically no base outside of his old far-southeastern district. 

PETE REGAN
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Regan was chief-of-staff for Dan Boren, lost to Jari Askins in the 2006 Lt. Governor primary, but was appointed by Gov. Fallin to the Transportation Commission, surprising many Republicans. He could be a fairly competitive candidate, in large part due to ties to political money.

KENNETH CORN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Kenneth Corn was mentioned as a possible candidate in 2012, but declined to make the run. A former state senator, he lost the Lt. Governor race pretty badly against Todd Lamb in 2010, winning just two counties. Lamb had a 40%+ margin of victory in 13 of the 26 counties in the 2nd District, so I just don't see Corn as a very viable candidate.

JIM WILSON
Likelihood: 5
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wilson ran against Boren in 2010, and lost badly. Term-limited from the state senate in 2010, he's probably the most liberal individual on this list, and as such would be easy to beat.

WAYNE HERRIMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Herriman lost in the 2012 runoff to Rob Wallace, but might be open to another run. Could he do better than Rob Wallace? I don't think so.

EARL GARRISON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Senator from Muskogee, Garrison will be term-limited in 2014. Garrison isn't a particularly charismatic candidate, and his district base just isn't enough to make him that competitive.

ROB WALLACE
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wallace got 38.34% in 2012 against Mullin. I doubt another attempt would be more successful, or that Wallace would be interested.

MIKE BROWN
Likelihood: 2

Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Representative from Tahlequah, Brown is serving his final term. Would he be interested, since he'll be out of office soon anyway?

JERRY MCPEAK
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Like Brown, McPeak will also be term-limited from the House in 2016. With so few elected officials left in eastern Oklahoma, will the ODP ask McPeak? 

JOSHUA HARRIS-TILL
Likelihood: 6
Competitiveness: 1

Review: Harris-Till lost with 37% to Earl Everett in the primary this year, even though Everett suffered a stroke two months before the primary. He has publicly stated that he is interested. He wouldn't have a chance at winning.

Special election a distinct possibility in CD2

In the flurry of activity before the election this past Tuesday, an event occurred that could have significant ramifications. Earl Everett, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 2nd District, died Sunday from injuries sustained in a car wreck two days before. Incumbent Republican Congressman Markwayne Mullin went on to win with 70% of the vote, while Everett received 24.6% and Independent candidate Jon Douthitt got 5.4%. That seemed to be simply a tragic footnote in an otherwise unremarkable and lopsided race.

However, the Oklahoma Democratic Party and state chairman Wallace Collins appear to be pushing for a special election, given the fact that their nominee was no longer living at the time of the election. The ODP Central Committee is meeting tomorrow (Saturday) to pick a replacement candidate in the event a special election is called.

State statute does spell out how these situations are handled.

§26-1-105.  Substitute candidates.
A. In the event of the death of a political party's nominee for office prior to the date of the General Election, a substitute candidate will be permitted to have his name placed on the General Election ballot as follows:
[...]
3. If said death should occur five (5) days or more following the Runoff Primary Election date, a special General Election shall be called by the Governor and shall be conducted according to the laws governing such elections, Section 12-101 et seq. of this title, except that there shall be no filing period or special Primary Election and the candidates in the special General Election shall be the substitute candidate named by the central committee and the nominee of other political parties elected in the Primary or Runoff Primary, and any previously filed independent candidates.

From my reading, I would say we're headed for a special election.

Dave Weston, chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, is objecting to the ODP's call for a special election, saying it would "disenfranchise" voters' selection on Tuesday, and be a waste of taxpayer resources.

I understand where Weston is coming from. Mullin got 70% of the vote; will a special election really be much different? In all likelihood it won't. But, I think the state statute is abundantly clear and precise (Governor Fallin and the State Election Board have asked Attorney General Scott Pruitt to review and advise on how to proceed).

We'll see how this shakes out. Several names have already surfaced as possible replacement candidates for the Democrats, which I will address in a following post.

2014 Election Results Map: State Superintendent

The latest addition to the Election Results Maps series is the 2014 State Superintendent race.

(click image to view larger)

Joy Hofmeister won 56 counties to John Cox's 21, the best performance for any Democratic candidate on Tuesday. Several of the counties were within one percentage point -- in fact, Cox won Jefferson County by one vote (616 to 615).

Still, Hofmeister's margins in the Tulsa metro and western Oklahoma were more than enough to carry her to victory. Hofmeister received 61.95% in Tulsa County, compared to her 52.36% in Oklahoma County.

2014 Election Results Map: Lt. Governor (and Lamb's historic win)

The latest in my Election Results Maps series: the 2014 Lieutenant Governor race.

(click image to view larger)

As you can see, Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb carried every county in the state. In fact, his margins were so massive I had to change the percentages covered by the different colors. In 10 counties, Lamb had over 85% of the vote. In Cimarron County, he took 91.15%!

Lamb's "worst" county? Coal County, where he got 54.73% to Cathy Cummings' 45.27% - a 9.47% margin of victory.

Also of note, Lamb received the most votes of any Republican on the ballot: 561,453. By comparsion, Jim Inhofe got 557,537 and James Lankford had 556,382. Lamb had 101,665 more votes than Mary Fallin.

Granted, Lamb's race didn't have nearly the same attention or money spent, and his opponent was clearly second-tier, but Lamb's performance is still remarkable.

As best as I can tell (and I looked through election results back to 1907), Lamb's 68.5% is the highest percentage any Republican candidate has ever received for a statewide office, excluding U.S. Senate. It's not the first time a Republican not running for U.S. Senate or President has carried every county (Ken Miller did in 2010, for example), but Lamb beat out the previous "high tide" record -- Brenda Reneau's 1998 Labor Commission victory of 68.42%. The only Republican candidate to have a higher percentage was Sen. Tom Coburn, with 70.64% in 2010.

So, let's recap:

• Only State-Office Republican to carry all 77 counties in 2014 (excluding the U.S. Senate races)
• Most votes among the 2014 Republican statewide candidates
• Highest percentage among the 2014 Republican statewide candidates
• Highest percentage in state history for a Republican State-Office candidate (excluding unopposed incumbents)
• 2nd highest overall percentage in state history for a statewide Republican candidate

Very impressive, Mr. Lieutenant Governor.

2014 Election Results Map: Governor

The election is over, and as time allows I will begin working up and posting my latest Election Results Maps. These maps have become a staple/tradition of mine since I first started posting them in 2010.

(click image to view larger)

For comparison, here is the map from the 2010 gubernatorial race.

Dorman won six counties, a slight improvement from Jari Askins' four. Overall, Fallin got 4.63% less votes, which shows in some of these counties being weaker for her than they were four years ago.

Big night for Muskogee County GOP

Not only was tonight's election a big night for the OKGOP, it was a huge night for the Muskogee County GOP.

In House District 14, George Faught defeated Jack Reavis 4,469 votes (56.8%) to 3,399 (43.2%) -- the biggest margin achieved by a Republican in that district. In 2006, Faught became the first Republican to win HD14, holding it for three terms, and Republican Arthur Hulbert held the seat this past term.

In the race for District 1 County Commissioner, Ken Doke defeated Speck Plunkett 3,375 votes (53.0%) to 2,992 (47.0%). As far as is know, Doke becomes the first Republican to hold a seat on the county commission.

State Senator Kim David easily retained SD18, with 68.7% district-wide and 62.3% in the Muskogee County portion of the district.

Roger Thompson took SD8 from the Democrats, with 55.9% district-wide, and 53.9% in the Muskogee County portion.

Statewide Republican candidates had a mixed bag in Muskogee County. Mary Fallin got 47.6% to Joe Dorman's 49.1%, Todd Lamb took 60.5%, Joy Hofmeister received 44.0%, Mark Costello eeked out 50.1%, Jim Inhofe got 60.3%, James Lankford took 59.9%, and Markwayne Mullin received 64.4%.

Big night for OKGOP

Tonight turned out to be an even bigger night for the Oklahoma Republican Party than expected.

Mary Fallin defeated Joe Dorman 55.8% to 41% for a second term as Governor. Lieutenant Governor Todd Lamb won reelection with 68.5% of the vote. Joy Hofmeister took a hard-fought 55.8% against John Cox to become the next State Superintendent. Mark Costello dispatched Mike Workman 62.8% to 37.2% for a second term as Labor Commissioner.

Jim Inhofe and James Lankford won their respective U.S. Senate races with nearly-identical percentages (68% and 67.9%, respectively). Congressmen Markwayne Mullin (70%), Frank Lucas (78.7%), and Tom Cole (70.8%) all won reelection. Steve Russell grabbed 60.1% to become the new 5th District congressman.

In the State Senate, the GOP had a big night. In SD5, Joseph Silk upset Dem. Rep. Curtis McDaniel 54.3% to 45.7%, becoming the first Republican to represent the far southeastern corner of the state in the state senate. In SD6, Josh Brecheen staved off a stiff re-election challenge, getting 53.6% of the vote. In SD8, Roger Thompson got 55.9% of the vote, perhaps also becoming the first Republican to represent the Okmulgee/Eufaula area district. That makes no Democrat state senators in the 2nd Congressional District south of I-40. In SD26, Darcy Jech got 56.9%, taking the last Democrat-held seat in western Oklahoma (outside of the Lawton area).

Add to tonight Marty Quinn taking SD2 unopposed after filing, that means the Republicans now hold 40 state senate seats, and the Democrats hold eight. EIGHT.

In the State House, Republicans held their own, despite several tough prospects. In HD45, Aaron Stiles was the only legislative Republican to lose, getting 48.9% to Democrat Claudia Griffith's 51.1%. Joe Dorman's seat went to Republican Scooter Park with 51.8% of the vote. The result of those two races mean the House stays 72 Republicans and 29 Democrats. George Faught got 56.8% in his return to HD14,  Representatives David Dank (56.4%) and Jason Nelson (53.2%) held on in tough re-election races. The GOP also retained seats vacated by Skye McNeil, Jason Smalley, Mike Jackson, Colby Schwartz, T.W. Shannon, Don Armes, and Mike Reynolds.

All in all, a great night for Oklahoma Republicans.

Vote!

Vote!

If you don't already know where to vote, find your polling place here. Find my voting recommendations here.

Voting started here in Oklahoma at 7:00am, and will close at 7:00pm.

Democrat Desperation: fake Barresi signs reappear

As the Oklahoma Democrats attempt to make the 2014 election a referendum on Janet Barresi's tenure as State Superintendent, their desperation has reached -- again -- to making fake Barresi signs to place next to Republican candidates' signs.

These first appeared back in September, but just popped back up again in Muskogee. If you've seen them in your neck of the woods, email me.

Between this and cookie-cutter, nearly-identical mailers trying to make [factually non-existent] ties Barresi between numerous GOP legislative candidates, things must really be desperate for the Oklahoma Democrats.

My Picks for the 2014 General Election

With the election literally around the corner, I've had people ask for my take on the candidates. Here is how I plan to vote, primarily focused on the Muskogee ballot but also throwing in a few other races I deem to be important.

U.S. Senate - Jim Inhofe and James Lankford
Lankford will make a great addition to the U.S. Senate. Although I'm not a fan of being in Washington for 20+ years, Inhofe is a reliable conservative voice. However, this should be his final term.
U.S. House - Markwayne Mullin (CD2), Steve Russell (CD5)
The Democrats put up lousy congressional candidates, so all GOP nominees should coast in. Russell will be a fantastic Congressman, and a good ally for Jim Bridenstine.
Governor - Mary Fallin
I'll hold my nose and vote Fallin. She's been a disappointment in some ways, but is better than the alternative - four or even eight years of a Democratic Governor.
Lieutenant Governor - Todd Lamb
Sure, it's hard to mess up being Lieutenant Governor, but Lamb has done a great job in being proactive and involved in economic development.
Labor Commissioner - Mark Costello
Costello has been a great Labor Commissioner. Add to that the fact that his opponent is pretty much a certified nut, and it's an easy pick.
State Superintendent - Joy Hofmeister
Hofmeister may not be perfect, but I trust her more than I do the Democrat (Cox). This is an important office, and I don't want to give it back to the Democrats.

State House District 12 - David Tackett
Although I disagree with David on some issues, he is generally on the right side of things, and would add to the conservative caucus in the State House.
State House District 14 - George Faught
We need experienced conservatives at the State Capitol, and HD14 needs continued conservative representation. (Disclaimer for those who like disclaimers: George Faught is my father)
State House District 76 - David Brumbaugh
I used to go to church with Brumbaugh. He will easily win reelection, and deserves to.
State House District 87 - Jason Nelson
Nelson is a reformer, and was the principal author of HB3399, which repealed Common Core. He's in a tough re-election bid, and is also facing his young daughter's recent diagnosis with a life-threatening condition.

State Senate District 5 - Joseph Silk
This is a very tough seat to win (registration is something like 12% Republican), but if Silk can pull it off, he will be one of the most conservative members in the State Senate.
State Senate District 6 - Josh Brecheen
This is perhaps the most important legislative race of the year. Brecheen has been targeted for his leadership in repealing Common Core, and is facing a tough reelection bid in a district that heavily favors the Democrats (Brecheen was the first Republican to win).
State Senate District 8 - Roger Thompson
A great chance for a pick-up by the GOP. Thompson is a good, conservative candidate.

Muskogee County Commission, District 1 - Ken Doke
Ken will bring a fresh, conservative viewpoint to the County Commission, one that we desperately need. I believe he would be the first Republican to ever win.

District Judge (District 15, Office 4) - James Walters for District Judge
I don't know a ton about this race, but have heard enough to go Walters over Alford.

Supreme Court - John Reif - NO
Supreme Court - Tom Colbert - NO
Supreme Court - Joseph Watt - NO
The consistency with which our mostly-liberal State Supreme Court tosses out pro-life legislation leads me to throw them out, too.
Court of Criminal Appeals - Gary Lumpkin - YES
I've heard good things about Lumpkin, so I'll vote to keep him.
Court of Civil Appeals - Jerry Goodman - NO
Court of Civil Appeals - Jane Wiseman - NO!
Wiseman officiated the first homosexual wedding in Oklahoma. That's enough for me to vote her out -- but Michael Bates details other reasons as well
Court of Civil Appeals - Deborah Barnes - NO
Court of Civil Appeals - Keith Rapp - NO
Court of Civil Appeals - Brian Goree - YES
I've also heard good reports about Goree, so I'll vote to keep him.

SQ 769 - NO
This deals with allowing certain government officials to concurrently hold certain military offices. This will probably pass (it passed the House 82-5 and the Senate 44-0), but I'm just not comfortable with the potential situation of a government official being unable to perform the duties of their elected office due to their enlistment in the military. I could probably be talked into voting 'yes', though.
SQ 770 - YES
SQ 771 - YES
SQs 770 and 771 deal with property tax exemptions for service-disabled veterans and surviving spouses, and for spouses of those killed in the line of duty. I will vote 'yes' on both.

Voter Registration Map: Pre-2014 General Election

Official numbers are in from the State Election Board, and the voter registration in Oklahoma as of November 1st, 2014, stands as follows: 884,150 Democrats, 881,253 Republicans, 257,045 Independents, and 8 Americans Elect.

Democrats hold the plurality by a mere 2,897 registrants.

Compare the above map to the one from January, at this link.

Majority Republican: 21 counties (same)
Plurality Republican: 9 counties (+1)
Plurality Democratic: 8 counties (+1)
Majority Democratic: 39 counties (-2)

Since January, Custer County moved from plurality Democrat to plurality Republican. Beckham and Comanche Counties moved from majority Democrat to plurality Democrat.

Registration swung in the Republican direction by 1.44%. Every county moved towards the GOP. Tillman County continues to be the county with highest GOP growth.

Byas: Vote your head, pick Fallin

Governor's Race: Vote Your Head

by Steve Byas, Oklahoma Constitution

Those who advocate casting a vote for Dorman to punish Fallin for some of the disappointing actions of her governorship (or voting for one of the two non-serious gadfly independent candidates) are hurting others besides Fallin.

Recent polls indicate that Governor Mary Fallin should win comfortably over Democrat challenger Joe Dorman, although not by the margin expected by other Republican incumbents running statewide this Fall.

This indicates that loads of activist Republicans are disenchanted with Mary, but not enough to commit the stupid act of voting for the Democrat candidate for governor.

Those who advocate casting a vote for Dorman to punish Fallin for some of the disappointing actions of her governorship (or voting for one of the two non-serious gadfly independent candidates) are hurting others besides Fallin. They are hurting the state, the Republican Party, the conservative cause, and in the end, themselves and their own family.

Sure, I understand the frustration. But, after knowing Mary Fallin for about a quarter of a century, I have come to the conclusion that Mary is just Mary, and when you come to expect disappointment, it is not all that much of a disappointment.

What I would like to do is make the case to conservative Republicans that the best choice in this governor’s race is to cast your vote for Mary Fallin for reelection.

Where do I start? First, state Representative Dorman is a Democrat, and I do not believe there is one single Democrat in the Oklahoma Legislature worth voting for. When we first started the Oklahoma Constitution newspaper back in 1979, there were Democrats in the Oklahoma Legislature worth voting for, some who made the Top Conservatives list, but those days are long gone.

This does not mean that Dorman is “evil,” or even a flaming liberal. He is just a Democrat, and as such, he is going to make Democrats happy more often than he makes Republican happy. Look, his Conservative Index score is only 39% lifetime, with a mere 31% score this year. I realize that is fairly good for a Democrat, but that only makes my point. For some reason, some excuse a lot of bad votes from a Democrat. I understand holding Republicans to a higher standard, but I do not wink at bad votes simply because the legislator is of the Big Government party.

As a Democrat, Governor Joe Dorman will fill state government with a whole lot of Democrats. Expecting these Democrats to be conservatives is laughable. I guess you can find a four-leaf clover every now and then, too. Regardless of what many people argue to the contrary, there are many Republicans who are worth appointing to state offices. No, I do not expect Governor Mary Fallin to appoint multitudes of conservatives, but I can guarantee you that she will appoint a whole lot more than Dorman, simply because she will appoint more Republicans than Dorman will appoint.

Then, we have the state judicial appointments. If Dorman were to pull the big upset, expect liberal Democrats to take the place of retiring state judges at the appellate court level. While these judges face the voters in retention votes every six years, no appellate judges have ever been denied the additional six years by the voters. Dorman’s judges, drawn from the ranks of an increasingly left-wing Democrat Party, will issue liberal decisions for years past the time Dorman is back home in Rush Springs, eating watermelon at the annual festival.

Let’s say there is an unexpected vacancy in the U.S. Senate. Do you think Governor Dorman will appoint anyone better than Jim Inhofe to fill that vacancy until the election? Get real. And, guess who will be the candidate of the Republican Party for the U.S. Senate should the great Jim Inhofe have to step down from the Senate? I suspect it will be Joe Dorman. If you cause the election of Dorman for governor, you just might be picking Inhofe’s replacement as well.

Realistically, I do not expect Governor Fallin to lead us to the conservative promised land, but she will probably sign good bills, if the Republican-dominated Legislature passes them. Sure, she waited to the last minute to sign the repeal of Common Core, but she did sign it. In our last issue, we analyzed the “conservative” ratings of the six governors who have resided at the Governor’s Mansion during the years of the Oklahoma Constitution (1979-2014). Whatever else one says about Fallin, of the six governors, she had the highest conservative score, at 63%, edging out fellow Republican Governor Frank Keating. I will admit that 63 is not great, but it is a whole lot better than the 31% score that Dorman had this last session. It is almost twice as good.

Sure, I could mention some bad policies and bad moves by Governor Fallin the past four years, and I have for the past four years in these pages. I fully expect I will be back next year, bellyaching about something else that Mary Fallin has done, or something else that she has failed to do.

But for now, I am going to use my head and vote this November for the person who is clearly the better candidate – Mary Fallin.

Byas is the editor of the Oklahoma Constitution newspaper, Oklahoma's conservative 

quarterly paper since 1979.