Monday, November 07, 2016

My 2016 Election Predictions

It's election eve, so time for some predictions.

Presidential race: 

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Trump pulls out wins in North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District, but falls barely short in Florida, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Michigan and New Mexico are also closer than expected, but Clinton wins them both.

Results: Clinton 297 electoral votes (49.9% popular vote), Trump 241 EVs (45.4%), Johnson 2.9%, Stein 0.9%, McMullin 0.4% (also gets 2nd place in Utah), all others combine for 0.5%.

I was a little too optimistic with McCain and Romney, so we'll see how this time goes. I honestly could see it going either way. There are even 269-269 tie scenarios that are plausible, though highly unlikely.

U.S. Senate:
Republicans Kirk (IL), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) lose, but the NV seat goes red. Republicans maintain a slim majority, 52R/48D.

U.S. House:
Republicans maintain their majority, losing only about 10 seats. 237R/198D.

State House:
Republicans pick up Democrat-held seats in HD3 (LeFlore County), HD4 (Cherokee County), HD12 (Wagoner County), HD13 (Muskogee/McIntosh counties), and HD16 (Okmulgee/Muskogee/Wagoner/Tulsa counties). Democrats pick up Republican-held seats in HD26 (Shawnee area), HD87 (OKC), and HD93 (OKC). Net GOP gain of two seats makes it 73R/28D.

State Senate: 
Republicans pick up Democrat-held seats in SD9 (Muskogee/Tahlequah) and SD13 (Ada area), while losing SD39 (Tulsa). Net GOP gain of one returns it to 40R/8D.

State Questions: all pass 
SQ776 - passes 79%-21%
SQ777 - incredible rural strength beats urban doubts, passes 53%-47%
SQ779 - the too-late campaign against fails to stop it, passes 59%-41%
SQ780 - passes 69%-31%
SQ781 - passes 66%-34%
SQ790 - confusion about the measure makes it fairly close, passes 55%-45%
SQ792 - passes 63%-37%

Those are my unscientific thoughts on the final results. Leave a comment with yours.

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