SoonerPoll: Trump leads in OK, but Cruz and Rubio surge

SoonerPoll, in conjunction with News 9/News on 6, today released a new Oklahoma presidential primary survey showing significant changes from their last report in September.

SoonerPoll/News9/News on 6 Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (PDF link)
389 likely voters registered Republican, conducted Nov. 12th-15th.
MoE +/-5.1%. Numbers in parentheses are from Sept. 1st-15th survey.

Donald Trump - 27.1% (30.8%)   -3.7%
Ted Cruz - 18.3% (6.5%)   +11.8%
Ben Carson - 17.5% (22.5%)   -5.0%
Marco Rubio - 16.3% (4.1%)   +12.2%
Mike Huckabee - 4.3% (5.0%)   -0.7%
Carly Fiorina - 2.3% (8.3%)   -6.0%
Jeb Bush - 2.2% (6.2%)   -4.0%
Rand Paul - 2.2% (0.9%)   +1.3%
John Kasich - 0.5% (2.2%)   -1.7%
Other - 2.5% (3.1%)   -0.6%
Unsure - 6.7% (10.4%)   -3.7%

Cruz and Rubio both surged around 12%, while most other candidates fell 2-6 points. Trump's lead has been cut to single digits (8.8%), and there's essentially a three-way tie for second.

The bottom ten candidates combined (14%) don't even beat the fourth place candidate (Rubio at 16.3%). The presidential primary on the GOP side is swiftly becoming a four-man race.

WRS 2010 GOP Gubernatorial Poll Analysis

Wilson Research Strategies 2010 GOP OK Gov Primary Poll (Link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• J.C. Watts - 39%
  
• Mary Fallin - 36%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 5%
  
• Undecided - 21%
  

Poll of 501 Likely Voters, May 7-9, with a MoE of 4.4%.

J.C. Watts has a slim lead over Congresswoman Mary Fallin, with Randy Brogdon pretty far back. This is still very early, but it does appear that it will be a close race.

The details get interesting (albeit a little confusing), when you dig into the crosstabs and break it down by congressional district.

First Congressional District

• J.C. Watts - 52%
  
• Mary Fallin - 19%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 8%
  
• Undecided - 21%

2nd Congressional District

• J.C. Watts - 41%
  
• Mary Fallin - 17%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 14%
  
• Undecided - 29%

3rd Congressional District

• J.C. Watts - 37%
  
• Mary Fallin - 42%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 2%
  
• Undecided - 19%

4th Congressional District

• J.C. Watts - 34%
  
• Mary Fallin - 43%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 1%
  
• Undecided - 22%

5th Congressional District

• J.C. Watts - 29%
  
• Mary Fallin - 53%
  
• Randy Brogdon - 2%
  
• Undecided - 16%

Watts clobbers Fallin in both the 1st and 2nd Districts. Brogdon shows surprising strength in the 2nd District, neck-and-neck with Fallin, with practically non-existent support in the other 3rd, 4th and 5th Districts. Fallin edges out Watts in the 3rd and 4th Districts, and rather unexpectedly beats Watt soundly in her home 5th District.

We will keep you updated on this and other races.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.2 (61.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 33.0 (34.8)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

This will likely be John McCain's best state.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 55.3 (51.3)
  
• Rice (D) - 38.9 (41.0)
• Wallace (I) - 2.9 (3.3)
  
• Undecided - 3.0 (4.4)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Andrew Rice's run looks like it will be a big failure, as expected. Jim Inhofe is going to have a safe return to the Senate.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 35.3 (34.7)
  
• Roth (D) - 49.8 (46.7)
  
• Undecided -14.9 (18.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth is practically at 50%. Dana Murphy will need a huge push to win this race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.7 (45.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 33.2 (31.3)
  
• Undecided - 21.1 (22.7)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 31-November 2, with a MoE of 3.54%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud is a safe bet for re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.3% (55.3%)
• Republican - 37.7% (37.7%)
• Independent - 8.0% (7.0%)

Zogby: McCain Moves into Lead 48-47 in One Day Polling

Per Drudge:

ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING

ZOGBY SATURDAY: Republican John McCain has pulled back within the margin of error... The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...

If this holds up, it's huge. McCain is definitely still in this game... even Iowa and Pennsylvania could be back in play.

SurveyUSA Polls

SurveyUSA poll conducted several polls for KFOR-TV, between October 28th and 29th.

Presidential Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

John McCain (R) - 63% (59%)
Barack Obama (D) - 34% (35%)
Other - 2% (3%)
Undecided - 1% (3%)

The 'Other' category is totally useless, as Oklahoma only has McCain and Obama on the ballot. McCain, needless to say, is headed to a massive victory in Oklahoma.

U.S. Senate Race (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jim Inhofe (R) - 56% (51%)
Andrew Rice (D) - 36% (39%)
Stephen Wallace (I) - 6% (7%)
Undecided - 2% (4%)

Jim Inhofe looks sets for a big re-election come Tuesday.

Corporation Commission Race, Short-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Dana Murphy (R) - 46% (50%)
Jim Roth (D) - 49% (43%)
Undecided - 5% (7%)

Jim Roth has taken a slight lead, perhaps due to his attack ads that have been running. Dana Murphy still has time to come back; this will be a close race.

Corporation Commission Race, Full-Term (MoE +/- 4.1%):

Jeff Cloud (R) - 55% (53%)
Charles Gray (D) - 39% (37%)
Undecided - 6% (10%)

Jeff Cloud appears set to be re-elected by a large margin.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Eight

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 61.6 (63.7)
  
• Obama (D) - 34.8 (32.4)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (4.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

A steady race here. An eight point swing in the voter sample (see below), and still about the same.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 51.3 (52.9)
  
• Rice (D) - 41.0 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.3 (3.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.4 (3.6)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, very little change here (even with the voter ID difference from last week).

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 34.7 (39.2)
  
• Roth (D) - 46.7 (39.8)
  
• Undecided -18.6 (21.0)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Jim "Bought and Paid For" Roth released some hard hitting allegations this past week, and this is a direct result of it. So far, Dana Murphy has not responded in a public enough way to counteract the attack ads. However, if she doesn't start to make up some ground fast, this race might not go so well next Tuesday.

That said, read below about the Voted ID sample.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 45.9 (44.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.3 (29.9)
  
• Undecided - 22.7 (25.2)
  

Poll of 720 Likely Voters, October 24-26, with a MoE of 3.5%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Cloud appears likely to cruise to re-election.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 55.3% (52.0%)
• Republican - 37.7% (42.7%)
• Independent -7.0% (5.3%)

There was a 3% jump in the Democrat sample, a 5% drop in the Republican group, and a 2% rise for Independents. With such a drastic tumult in the voter ID, the results in this poll are a bit hard to stake too much in. Eight points would wipe out much of Jim Roth's new lead, so things might not be so bad for Dana Murphy.

Another interesting thing I noticed in the crosstabs was the Congressional District the persons polled lived in. Throughout the tracking polls, the 2nd CD has typically comprised about 2% more of the polled persons than the other districts. Could this have an impact? Possibly.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Seven

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.7 (63.0)
  
• Obama (D) - 32.4 (31.9)
  
• Undecided - 4.0 (5.1)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The undecideds are finally dropping off, as we get into the final days of this election.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.9 (53.1)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.5)
• Wallace (I) - 3.9 (2.0)
  
• Undecided - 3.6 (5.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

We appear to have reached equilibrium in this race. The numbers are virtually unchanged over the past three weeks.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 39.2 (40.0)
  
• Roth (D) - 39.8 (35.1)
  
• Undecided -21.0 (24.9)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The two candidates are now in a virtual tie, whereas before Dana Murphy held a slim lead. I believe this is directly attributable to Roth's growing presence in television advertising. This race will by far be the closest of the major statewide elections on November 4th. Jim Roth has a huge cash advantage over Murphy (as he is 'Bought and Paid For', as I have said time and again.), however, this appears to be a good year for Republicans in the state of Oklahoma, and I feel confident that Dana Murphy will pull this out.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 44.9 (37.4)
  
• Gray (D) - 29.9 (30.2)
  
• Undecided - 25.2 (32.4)
  

Poll of 763 Likely Voters, October 19-20, with a MoE of 3.51%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Again, due to increased TV advertising, Jeff Cloud breaks open an expected lead over his opponent. A big part of the movement? I bet it's due to this ad of his.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 52.0% (53.5%)
• Republican - 42.7% (41.0%)
• Independent -5.3% (5.6%)

Things are shaping up to be a great November 4th for the Oklahoma Republican Party. It may be a little tense for a while at the Murphy watch party, but I believe that all Republican state-wide candidates will come out on top, and the State Senate will switch control to the Republicans for the first time in state history.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Six

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 63.0 (65.5)
  
• Obama (D) - 31.9 (29.1)
  
• Undecided - 5.1 (5.4)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

McCain leads by 31 points. The undecided column has hardly varied the past few weeks; the main action comes from 5-10% of the sample that swing back and forth.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma U.S. Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 53.1 (52.5)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.5 (39.7)
• Wallace (I) - 2.0 (2.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.7)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Senator Inhofe improved slightly since last week. The undecided percentage in this race is almost identical to the Presidential race.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 40.0 (37.6)
  
• Roth (D) - 35.1 (33.1)
  
• Undecided -24.9 (29.1)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

The closer we get to the election, the more the populace hears about this race. Murphy retains her narrow lead to this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 37.4 (36.9)
  
• Gray (D) - 30.2 (31.5)
  
• Undecided -32.4 (31.6)
  

Poll of 813 Likely Voters, October 10-12, with a MoE of 3.44%. Last poll's results in parentheses.

Incumbent Jeff Cloud holds his tenuous lead over relative-unknown Charles Gray.

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 53.5% (54.4%)
• Republican - 41.0% (40.3%)
• Independent -5.6% (5.2%)

The political landscape in Oklahoma is different than most areas of the nation. There are only a handful of states where you can find a sample like this that goes against their own party by such margins.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Five

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain (R) - 65.5 (67.6)
  
• Obama (D) - 29.1 (26.5)
  
• Undecided - 5.4 (5.9)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain still holds a 36-point lead over Obama; one of the largest leads McCain has in the nation.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe (R) - 52.5 (56.0)
  
• Rice (D) - 39.7 (35.5)
• Wallace (I) - 2.2 (2.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.7 (5.8)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Inhofe leads by almost 13%. However, Rice has closed the gap considerably from earlier this year. Inhofe is still favored to win by a large percentage.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp.Comm. (Short Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy (R) - 37.6 (38.3)
  
• Roth (D) - 33.3 (29.1)
  
• Undecided -29.1 (32.6)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Roth made some gains this week; but the relative insignificance of this race makes it nearly impossible to predict at this point.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Comm. (Long Term) Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Cloud (R) - 36.9 (not previously polled)
  
• Gray (D) - 31.5 (not previously polled)
  
• Undecided -31.6 (not previously polled)
  

Poll of 801 Likely Voters, October 4-5, with a MoE of 3.46%. Last polls results in parentheses.

TvPoll polled the other Corporation Commission race this week. The lack of attention on this race, as with the other Corporation Commission race, has contributed significantly to the very high number of undecideds.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 54.4% (48.7%)
• Republican - 40.3% (45.4%)
• Independent -5.2% (5.9%)

This could very well explain the discrepancy between the results from last week and this week.

TvPoll Tracking Polls - Week Four

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 67.6 (65.8)
  
• Obama - 26.5 (26.2)
  
• Undecided - 5.9 (8.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 56.0 (55.0)
  
• Rice - 35.5 (33.4)
• Wallace - 2.6 (1.6)
  
• Undecided - 5.8 (10.0)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Jim Inhofe continues to hold a 20-point lead over his Democratic opponent.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 38.3 (45.0)
  
• Roth - 29.1 (32.6)
  
• Undecided - 32.6 (22.3)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

The Corporation Commission race remains extremely fluid, with Murphy falling 7% and Roth dropping 3%. The Undecided column rose by 10 points, the exact number Murphy and Roth fell by.

TvPoll had some interesting commentary on the past few weeks polling for this race:

"Little changed in poll numbers from week one to week two between Corporation Commissioner Candidates Dana Murphy (R) and Jim Roth (D). Both weeks showed a tight race with Murphy in the lead by about 15 points.

Week three, however, concluded with very different results. 24% were in favor of Murphy, 21% in favor of Roth and 55% were undecided in the race for Corporation Commissioner.

What changed? In week one and two, TvPoll.com asked respondents who they were likely to favor when it came time to vote by introducing each candidate along with their party affiliation. To test for party influences, TvPoll.com asked the same question in week three, only this time without differentiating the candidates by party. The difference is significant."

(emphasis mine)

This race will continue to be very fluid.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 50.1% (49.6%)
• Republican - 44.8% (44.5%)
• Independent -5.0% (5.9%)

TvPoll Tracking Polls

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 65.8 (68.8)
  
• Obama - 26.2 (27.4)
  
• Undecided - 8.0 (3.8)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

John McCain maintains a nearly 40-point lead over Barack Obama in this latest poll.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 55.0 (55.7)
  
• Rice - 33.4 (30.6)
• Wallace - 1.6 (4.4)
  
• Undecided - 10.0 (9.3)
  

Poll of 667 Likely Voters, September 20-22, with a MoE of 3.79%. Last polls results in parentheses.

This remains an Inhofe-dominated race.

TvPoll/KWTV Weekly Tracking Poll

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Presidential Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• McCain - 68.8 (65.9)
  
• Obama - 27.4 (27.9)
  
• Undecided - 3.8 (6.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

McCain smashes Obama in yet another Oklahoma poll; this time with a 41-point lead. McCain nows lead Obama among Democrats by 4, and among Independents by 22.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Senate Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Inhofe - 55.7 (57.2)
  
• Rice - 30.6 (29.2)
• Wallace - 4.4 (3.6)
  
• Undecided - 9.3 (10.0)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Most of the little movement in this race came from Independents, who flipped from Inhofe to Rice (from 50-20, to 25-55). Inhofe holds a very large lead, thwarting Democrat hopes to upset him in November.

TvPoll/KWTV Oklahoma Weekly Corp. Commission Tracking Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - PDF)

• Murphy - 45.0 (44.7)
  
• Roth - 32.6 (36.1)
  
• Undecided - 22.3 (19.2)
  

Poll of 816 Likely Voters, September 14, with a MoE of 3.43%. Last polls results in parentheses.

Dana Murphy continues to hold a lead in the Corporation Commission race, extending it by nearly four points this week. The large percentage of undecideds is easily attributed to the lack of attention paid to this race so far, and the relative lack of knowledge of the Corporation Commission in general. Most of the movement in the numbers came from Democrats; Murphy gained 5%, and Roth lost 8%.

UPDATE

Voter ID:

• Democrat - 49.6% (50.1%)
• Republican - 44.5% (43.4%)
• Independent -5.9% (6.5%)