2nd District Update

The race on the Republican side for the 2nd Congressional District has gone to a runoff, with candidates Charles Thompson and Daniel Edmonds qualifying for the "overtime" round of the primary. Here is a quick roundup up the latest events, in chronological order.

Thompson supporters have been passing around the rumor that if Edmonds does not win the runoff, he will support Dan Boren in November. Edmonds issued the following press release on Monday to combat the rumor.

Edmonds Pledges Support to Conservative Republican Cause
Edmonds: "Our common goal is to replace Dan Boren in Congress."

(Morris, Oklahoma-August 2, 2010):

Daniel Edmonds, candidate in the August 24 runoff election for the Republican nomination in Oklahoma's Second Congressional District, today commented on the runoff election.

"I look forward to the runoff campaign to see who will go on to face Dan Boren in November," Edmonds said. "I will continue to campaign on the issues that are important to the conservative cause."

"Whomever the voters choose to carry the Republican banner in November, I will continue to support the conservative cause," Edmonds continued. "I will work towards one of our common goals, which is replacing Dan Boren as our Congressman."

Edmonds, whose previous political experience includes stints as the Agricultural Policy Intern for the Oklahoma Senate and House of Representatives and the Frank D. Lucas Agricultural Policy Scholar for Congressman Frank Lucas (R-OK 3) in Washington, DC, is running for office for the first time.

Daniel Edmonds, a seventh generation Oklahoman in Okmulgee County, has a BS and MS in Plant and Soil Sciences from Oklahoma State University. Learn more about his campaign at www.danieledmonds.org.

On Tuesday, former candidates Howard Houchen and Dan Arnett endorsed Charles Thompson on KFAQ's Eddie Huff Show. The runoff election is on Tuesday, August 24th, and the victor will go on to challenge Democrat Congressman Dan Boren in the November general election.

Republican Primary Results - CD2

(Note - five counties had less than 300 votes, and eleven counties had less than 505)

Click here for the entire Muskogee Politico series of election results maps.

2nd District GOP Candidates Watch Party Locations

Here are the locations for the 2nd Congressional District Republican candidates watch parties, in the order they will appear on the ballot.
 

Daniel Edmonds

The Edmonds 2 Congress campaign watch party will be held at the Edmonds Farm/Ranch headquarters near Morris. For directions, call the campaign headquarters at (918) 733-2068.

The Edmonds watch party will start at 7:00pm.

 

Charles Thompson

The Thompson for Congress watch party will be held at the new River Center at the Three Forks Harbor, right across the Arkansas River from Muskogee in Fort Gibson.

The River Center is located at 5201 Three Forks Road, Fort Gibson (click here for map).

The Thompson watch party will start at 7pm. 

Howard Houchen

The Houchen for Congress watch party will be held in Muskogee at the Faifield Inn & Suites (1650 North 32nd Street; click here for map). It will start at 6:30pm.

Houchen will not be the only congressional candidate at his watch party - he is holding a joint event with 4th District candidate RJ Harris. Harris is soon to ship out to Afghanistan with the Army, and is currently at Camp Gruber in Braggs.

Dan Arnett

The Arnett for Congress campaign is holding a private watch party. For more information, contact the campaign at dan@danarnettforcongress.com.







I did not receive any information from the remaining two candidate, Raymond Wickson and Chester Clem Falling.

In addition, the Muskogee County Republican Party will be holding a watch party at the Muskogee Civic Center (4th & Okmulgee; click here for map), in Rooms A and B, starting at 6:45pm.

Jim Wilson Hits Back at Dan Boren

Tahlequah State Sen. Jim Wilson's congressional campaign has released a web ad attacking Congressman Dan Boren's record.




Wilson, who is perhaps the most liberal/progressive member of the Oklahoma legislature, is the lone Democrat challenging Boren, Oklahoma's sole Democrat congressional member. Six Republicans are running: Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, Charles Thompson, and little-known candidates Chester Clem Falling and Raymond Wickson.

Arnett: "Let Afghanistan take care of Afghanistan"

Republican congressional candidate Dan Arnett made the following statement in an article in the Sunday edition of the McAlester News-Capital.

“In Arizona, the government isn’t protecting our border,”  Arnett said.

“That’s an area where the government isn’t doing its job. I would like to see the government step up and do its job.”

Arnett knows how he would like to see that accomplished.

“Get our men and women out of Afghanistan and bring them back to our own borders,” Arnett said. “Let Afghanistan take care of Afghanistan.” [emphasis mine]

Arnett is one of six Republican candidates for the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by Democrat Congressman Dan Boren. The other GOP contenders are Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, Charles Thompson, and last-minute candidates Raymond Wickson, and Chester Falling. State Sen. Jim Wilson is the lone Democrat candidate running against Congressman Boren.

Boren Endorsed by Pro-Life Groups

2nd District Congressman Dan Boren (D-Muskogee) picked up two pro-life endorsements today for the Democratic primary.

Pro-Life Democrat From Oklahoma Gets Rare Pro-Life Support, Opposed HCR Bill

Oklahoma City, OK (LifeNews.com) -- When a coalition of pro-life Democrats walked out on the pro-life groups which strenuously opposed the pro-abortion health care bill President Barack Obama eventually signed, Congressman Dan Boren of Oklahoma was one of the few to not jump ship.

Today, the National Right to Life Committee and its Oklahoma affiliate rewarded the pro-life Democrat with an endorsement.

The backing comes at a time when other pro-life Democratic candidates in states like Ohio, Indiana and Michigan, lost their endorsements because of their support of the government-run health care plan containing massive taxpayer financing of abortions.

The NRLC PAC endorsed Boren of Oklahoma’s 2nd congressional district in the July 27 Democratic Primary.

The group told LifeNews.com Boren has had a 100% pro-life voting record during the 111th Congress and it thanked him for opposing the health care bill.

“Congressman Dan Boren is to be commended for his efforts to prevent the Democratic health-care legislation from mandating coverage of abortion and federal funding of abortion,” said National Right to Life Vice President and Chairman of Oklahomans For Life, Tony Lauinger.

“His efforts included spearheading a June 2009 letter from pro-life House Democrats to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, stating that they could not ‘support any health care reform proposal unless it explicitly excludes abortion from the scope of any government-defined or subsidized health insurance plan,'" Lauinger said. "When the necessary pro-life safeguards were not included in the final health-care legislation, Congressman Boren kept his word and opposed the pro-abortion bill.”

Also announcing a run for the Democratic nomination for the 2nd congressional district seat is state Senator Jim Wilson, one of the most outspokenly pro-abortion members of the Oklahoma legislature.

Over the past four years, on 23 key abortion-related votes scored by Oklahomans For Life, Jim Wilson was absent once, voted pro-life once, and voted pro-abortion 21 times.

“Senator Wilson is so extreme on abortion that he even opposed a bill which protects against coerced abortions and seeks to ensure that a mother's consent to an abortion is truly voluntary," Lauinger said.

Related web sites:
National Right to Life PAC - http://www.nrlpac.org
Oklahomans for Life - http://www.OkForLife.org

As was stated, Wilson is very liberal, not only on pro-life issues, but on practically every other topic. He specifically stated Boren's 'no' vote on "ObamaCare" as his reason for challenging Boren; Wilson is a huge supporter of the healthcare plan.

In addition to Wilson, Boren is also being challenged by Republicans Daniel Edmonds, Charles Thompson, Chester Falling and Dan Arnett, all of whom filed for office yesterday or today. Howard Houchen, another announced Republican candidate, has not filed his candidacy yet.

Additional candidates can file tomorrow. The Oklahoma State Election Board has a list of the candidates who have filed here.

2nd District Candidate Ranking: 3rd Edition

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-1st Quarter FEC Reports

With the close of the 2010 1st Quarter FEC reports, it's once again time for the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. This is the third in the GOP candidate ranking series. The original ranking can be viewed here, with the second located here. This is not to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog - merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the latest installment of the 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Daniel Edmonds (prev. 2nd)


I see Daniel Edmonds as having taken the top spot this past quarter.

Public Policy Polling conducted a poll of the 2nd District race, and Edmonds came out as the best Republican when compared to incumbent Congressman Dan Boren (D). He was 16 points down to Boren, as opposed to 20 points (Thompson), 22 points (Houchen), and 27 points (Arnett). You can see more information on that poll here.

Edmonds still seems to be the candidate that can have the broadest appeal to conservative Democrats - a must for winning in this heavily Democratic district.

If this ranking was based solely on raising money, Edmonds would not be ranked first. His fundraising has been poor, a factor that has affected all candidates in this race (except Boren).

However, Edmonds looks to be getting the most bang for his buck; his campaign appears to be the most frugal and effective. He set the standard among his competitors for campaign literature, sparking the rest to get much more professional materials.

In my discussions with Republicans across the district, Edmonds gets the broadest support. That wasn't the case earlier in the campaign, but it seems to be growing steadily now, as activists and voters get to know the candidates.

Edmonds still needs to find a way to raise funds. If he can be in the lead with what little he has now, he could do much better with a good war-chest.


2. Howard Houchen (prev. 1st)

Howard Houchen, after a quick start, has seemed to cool among the Republican electorate.

The latest FEC reports show that Houchen raised slightly over $20,000 in the last quarter - a modest, but respectable sum for a challenger in circumstances like these. His showing was the highest of the Republican challengers to this point. He currently has $9,309 cash on hand - $4,000 more than the nearest Republican competitor.

Houchen is a very aggressive candidate, which will give some voters hesitation, while appealing to others. The Ron Paul/libertarian community seems to be rallying around Houchen in particular, which again, may alienate some people.

He has shown what I find to be a fairly minor lapse in judgment by joining any and every group out there that asks him to (such as Bring Home the Politicians, which aims to hold Congress from every state capitol via teleconference, as opposed to physically meeting in Washington at the Capitol). I find the group's idea to be a bad one, for many reasons.

He's also doing a bit of negative campaigning (in relation to Dan Boren) that I don't care for. It's one thing to attack a person's record, but outlandish caricatures are out of taste, in my opinion. One of the things I hear regularly about Howard is that he consistently goes over the time allotted to him to speak at meetings - something that several other candidates also do.

On the other hand, Houchen is having the most success of the GOP candidates in raising money, even though he does seem to be burning through it pretty fast. He has run some radio ads, as well as some recent cable TV ads. It's still probably too early for any of that to be effective, and the actual ads themselves aren't the best, design-wise. But, he is the only candidate to have done either at this point.

Houchen needs to appeal to a broader group of voters, and find a way to not alienate potential supporters. He is still very much in the running for the lead. This race will remain fluid until someone emerges as the clear leader.

3. Charles Thompson (prev. 3rd)

Charles Thompson continues to make moves, although he does not advance in this ranking. Thompson put his toe in the water back in June, dropped out a week later, and decided to get back in sometime in early September.

He filed a report with the FEC this past quarter, reporting about $15,000 raised (although almost $10,000 was in-kind donations). I do have questions about his report - some items may not follow FEC rules.

Thompson does seem to be having the most success at generating volunteers. His military background is attractive to many voters.

However, Thompson has a tendency to trot out ideas that are... ill-advised. For instance, this one on constituent contact. He has called for, in campaign emails, the banning of Islam in the United States, as well as mandating that former Representatives live in their district for the same amount of time they represented the district - in order to live under the laws they passed. As with Houchen, Charles has a hard time keeping to time limits while speaking.

If Thompson can start to raise funds, as well as keep from making more of these mistakes, he can really start to make some waves in this race.


4. Dan Arnett (prev. 4th)

Although Dan Arnett had some influence on this race at the very beginning (I see him as one of the reasons that Congressman Boren actually held town halls), I see his impact dwindling.

Arnett has transferred from law school in Pennsylvania to the University of Tulsa, which has helped him to be more visible across the district. However, folks that I have talked with aren't sold on supporting him with the three aforementioned candidates in the race. I don't see his support base growing in the way it is for the other candidates.

Of the Republican candidates at the time, he performed the worst in the PPP poll that took place at the end of February. As with Houchen and Thompson, Arnett has trouble staying within time limits while speaking, sometimes even speaking for twice as long as he was given.

Arnett is going to have a difficult time convincing voters to join his camp, especially since he isn't raising money or generating as much interest as the other candidates. With some 40 days left until the filing period begins, Arnett has to either make some moves, or make some tough decisions.

5. Miki Booth (prev. not on list)

Miki Booth originally entered the race as an Independent, but decided to switch to Republican in early April. The fact that she took 7-8% of the vote as an Independent in the PPP poll probably had an impact on her decision.

Booth is most well-known for her "Birther" stance. Her position on other issues always takes second place to talking about President Obama's birth certificate, or lack thereof.

She will not be an impact on this race, and will only take single digits of the vote in July.



And that is the 3rd edition of the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. Keep an eye here for the latest news and developments for this race.

2nd District Update: Booth Switches to Republican

The Republican field of candidate for the 2nd Congressional District has officially become even more crowded. Miki Booth, originally an Independent candidate, has thrown her hat in the ring for the GOP nomination:

MIKI BOOTH SAYS REPUBLICANS CAN MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OR “GO THE DISTANCE” TO UPHOLD THE CONSTITUTION

I am among a large contingent of Americans who are fed up with the politics of both parties and changed affiliation to Independent or none.

In January I threw my hat into the political ring by registering to run originally as an Independent candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in District 2 Oklahoma, the seat currently held by Dan Boren.

There are four Republicans who will be on the primary election ballot, and as of this past Friday, I became the fifth by announcing my decision to return to the Republican party. And as of today, the change is reflected on the Federal Election Commission website.

Last Saturday, March 20, was a critical day for America. Thousands answered the “Code Red” call to get to our nation’s capital to protest the massive entitlement bill that we cannot afford and most Americans don’t want. This massive 2,000-page monstrosity being hawked as “healthcare reform” is nothing more than a government takeover of one-sixth of our economy and heavily laced with “goodies” and paybacks to Democrats in Congress, their allies and supporters.

I was one of the 40,000 or so Americans who stood outside the Capitol building shouting “Kill the Bill!” and “USA!” We don’t want our country turning into a socialist nation, and yet this is where we are rapidly heading under the dictates of Obama’s regime and a far-left “progressive” Congress. It made no difference that people from all 50 states, including a group of us from Oklahoma who drove 1,300 miles non-stop to make a last plea to stop the takeover, as we ultimately lost the healthcare battle.

But we haven’t lost entirely. All indications are good for conservatives to reclaim the Senate and House in November, but party politics could ruin our chances if Republicans don’t change the way they do business. And by this I mean it’s less about money than it is adhering to the Constitution as the Law of the Land: the difference between attending a $100 a plate fund-raising dinner in Muskogee or driving 1,300 miles non-stop to defend the Constitution of the United States of America.

Respectfully submitted,

Miki Booth
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives
Wyandotte, OK

As an Independent candidate, Booth placed an emphasis on the "birther" controversy over Barack Obama's birth certificate.

In the recent Public Policy Polling survey of the district, Booth received between 7% and 8% as an Independent candidate - perhaps some incentive to join the race as a Republican. We will see whether or not Booth will have an impact on the race.

She joins Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen and Charles Thompson in the race for the Republican Party nomination.

2nd District Candidate Edmonds on Health Care Vote

Edmonds, candidate for the 2nd District, released this statement regarding the health care vote in the U.S. House last night:

EDMONDS PLEDGES TO WORK TO REPEAL HEALTHCARE VOTE

MORRIS, OK - Daniel Edmonds, leading Republican candidate for Oklahoma's Second Congressional District, pledges to work to repeal the healthcare legislation recently passed in the U.S. House. Edmonds has indicated that, if elected, he will author or sponsor legislation to repeal ObamaCare.

"Our current Congressman didn't vote for ObamaCare, for which I commend him," Edmonds said. "However, I challenge him to author or sponsor legislation to repeal it. The majority of Oklahoma does not want this government healthcare so we need a representative who will take measures to repeal the current legislation. I don't believe our Congressman will initiate or support a repeal because of his support of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House - support he's shown in casting three votes in favor of her leadership."

"If given the honor to serve my fellow Oklahomans in Washington, I will author or sponsor legislation to repeal ObamaCare. This legislation is wrong for America and a vast majority did not want this legislation to pass. We will work to repeal it and instead offer real solutions of availability, tort reform, and lower costs."

To learn more about Daniel Edmonds and his current campaign for Oklahoma's U.S. Congressional District 2 Seat, visit http://danieledmonds.org. Edmonds is the leading Republican in a contested primary. The primary election will be held July 27. The general election will be held November 2.

Edmonds is one of four candidates running on the Republican side for the 2nd Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dan Boren.

The other candidates are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson.

2nd District Candidate Houchen on Health Care Vote

Howard Houchen, candidate for the 2nd District, released this statement regarding the health care vote in the U.S. House last night:

Howard Houchen, Republican Candidate for US Congressional District OK-2 Statement on House Health Care Vote

Hugo, OK – 21 March 2010 -- In the evening hours of 21 March 2010, Speaker Pelosi's House of Representatives voted for passage of not just Federal government control of the American Health Care sector but, in doing so also voted to cement the foundations of the Progressive central-planning collectivist ideology that an overwhelming majority of Eastern Oklahomans, and Americans, have voiced opposition to. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele reiterated what I have been saying throughout Eastern Oklahoma and across as much of America as possible for almost a year: "The problem has been...that the Leadership has not listened. This Administration, this Congress has not listened to what people wanted." Does anyone doubt that if the peoples' elected representatives had voted the will of their constituency that this bill wouldn't have passed? What occurred today provides definitive proof of what I stated back in June of 2009; "American governance is busted...and it needs new batteries."

While I do not believe today’s vote represents the absolute final say on whether or not America turns to socialized health care, and all the other central-planning mechanisms that are contained in this unconstitutional and un-American piece of legislation, I do believe it signals a hazardous change of direction that America is not meant to travel and will place us in perils not yet fully contemplated that will undo, forever, the intent and purpose of our Founding Principles. To paraphrase Sen. Jim DeMint from a statement at around 4:00 pm CST: This is a wholly unworthy process for a free people.

While I have always held on to hope that this day would not come, whereby our elected officials overtly and arrogantly ignored the unmistakable will of the citizenry, we have prepared the Houchen for Congress campaign to deal with such a blow to individual and economic freedom by the Pelosi House. On 14 January 2010, I signed the "Repeal It Pledge" that was initiated by The Club for Growth which stated very simply: "I, Howard Houchen, hereby pledge to the people of OK-D2 upon my election to the U.S. House of Representatives, to sponsor and support legislation to repeal any federal health care takeover passed in 2010, and replace it with real reforms that lower health care costs without growing government." To date, the only Oklahoma Republicans who have signed that pledge are Sen. Tom Coburn, Rep. Tom Cole, Rep. John Sullivan, Republican House Candidate (OK-05) Kevin Calvey, and Howard Houchen. Note: No other Oklahoma legislator has signed this pledge to overturn socialized medicine.

Clearly our attempts as "mere citizens" to be represented by our officials in government no longer is worthy of their attention. This current state of affairs must not be allowed to stand. I have made the solemn vow to turn back the encroachments of federal government on individual liberties and economic freedom...today’s vote only serves to strengthen that resolve. America is far too special and deserves far greater than what now guides her course. I will fight for the voice of Eastern Oklahomans to be heard at all times and will fight for the future of the America we know is possible and not settle for anything less than an environment of Freedom, Constitutional adherence, and a truly limited federal government.

Houchen is one of four candidates running on the Republican side for the 2nd Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dan Boren.

The other candidates are Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, and Charles Thompson.

Press Release: Edmonds Leads Republican Pack

Congressional candidate Daniel Edmonds issued the following press release today.

Edmonds Leads Republican Pack in District 2 Congressional Race

MORRIS, OK – Daniel Edmonds, Republican candidate for Oklahoma’s Second Congressional District offers the best chance for Republicans to defeat current Democrat Congressman Dan Boren, according to Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm. Results of the recently released poll show Daniel Edmonds as the leading Republican candidate and the best candidate to run against incumbent Boren. Edmonds received a significantly higher vote percentage than any of the other Republican candidates. He also kept Boren’s vote percentage substantially under 50% which was the lowest in the poll. Daniel Edmonds is leading the way with the highest name recognition of the Republican candidates as well.

“Our message of liberty, limited government, respect for the Constitution, respect for life, and personal responsibility resonates with individuals who care about our country, our heritage, and our legacy,” Edmonds said. “We are excited about the support our campaign is receiving as I believe I have the education and background to best represent District 2 Oklahomans in Washington.”

“The Republican primary election will be held July 27 and we are working to meet with as many constituents as possible. We are pleased with the results at this point in the campaign, but winning the primary in July and ultimately the general election in the voting booth is our goal. Over the next few months, we will be working hard to tell the Second District who I am and where I stand on the issues pertinent to our district and our country.”

To view poll results, visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com. To learn more about Daniel Edmonds and his current campaign for Oklahoma’s U.S. Congressional District 2 Seat, visit http://danieledmonds.org.

You can view the PPP poll results in our post here, and you can read my analysis here.

PPP 2nd District Poll Analysis

As promised, here's a more detailed look at the results from the Public Policy Polling survey of the 2nd District race.

I'll just start at the beginning, and give my commentary as we go down. You can "follow along" on this pdf if you like - I won't cover everything, and there's some fascinating stuff in these crosstabs.

For starters, 8% of the respondents identify as liberals, 45% as moderates, and 47% as conservatives. 55% call themselves Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 11% Independents.

Obama

President Obama gets a 27% approval rating, and a 65% disapproval. Not terribly surprising, since he lost this district by a somewhat similar margin. However, 20% of 2008 Obama voters disapprove. Liberals approve by a 2-1 margin, but he loses moderates (40-51) and conservatives (10-85). 47% of Democrats disapprove, while 42% approve. Republicans and Independents are overwhelmingly disapproving. Another interesting item: voters are slightly more approving the older they get - his worst approval rating (20%) is with 18-29 year-olds, and his best is with senior citizens (31%).

Boren

Congressman Boren gets a 51/33 approval rating, virtually identical percentages among McCain and Obama voters. He gets slightly higher approval among conservatives (46/38) than he does liberals (43/38), but moderates are higher (57/27). While there was no significant difference among gender in Obama's approval, woman are very approving of Boren (52/26), while men are mixed (49/40). Democrats approve on a 55/27 split, Republicans somewhat approve (47/38), but independents are divided (40/43).

11% of poll respondents consider Boren to be too conservative, 31% say he's too liberal, and 45% says he's just about right.

I fully expected Boren to be over 50% - in fact, I half-thought he'd be at or around 60%. For him to be in the mid- to upper-40s (as you will see below) surprised me. Could he be vulnerable? The odds are still long at defeating him, but it can't be put completely out of the question, especially if the Republican nominee can improve his own name recognition percentages.

Health Care

17% approve of the health care bill passed by the House in November, while 61% disapprove. Liberals approve (54/34), but moderates (26/43) and conservatives (2/82) don't. Democrats (29/42), Republicans (2/86) and Independents (5/78) all disapprove.

32% think that Boren voted for the health care bill, but only 30% actually get it right, and say that he voted against it.

Arnett vs. Boren

Dan Arnett was the poorest performer against Boren, attracting only 22% of the vote against Boren's 49% - a 27 point deficit. These were the lowest and the highest numbers for the respective candidates. Independent Miki Booth received 7%, and 22% were undecided.

Arnett lost McCain voters to Boren 33-39, barely won conservatives (33-32), and got the lowest marks among moderates (10%) and liberals (12%). He also got the lowest marks among Republicans (42%) and Independents (19%).

This poll was obviously not kind to Arnett, who seems to be struggling more so than the other candidates to gain traction.

Houchen vs. Boren

Howard Houchen surprisingly had the second-worst performance, earning 26% to Boren's 48%, a 22 point deficit. Booth again received 7% of the vote.

Houchen edged out Boren in McCain voters 39-36. He gets the highest mark (ties the highest spread) in conservatives, beating Boren 43-29. He has the second-best performance among Republicans (51%), and the best showing among Independents, beating Boren 27-25.

This wasn't the best news for Houchen, as he has widely been considered the frontrunner (he's placed first in both of our candidates rankings to date). It's also by no means crushing information, but it's not great, either. I was, frankly, surprised at his showing.

Thompson vs. Boren

Charles Thompson had the second-best showing in this poll, getting 25% of the vote to Boren's 45% - a 20 point deficit. Booth received 8% this time.

Thompson won McCain voters 38-33. He came in second of the GOP candidates among liberals (20%) and third among conservatives, beating Boren 39-28. He was tied for first among Democrats (12%), third among Republicans (48%), and second in Independents (25%) - tied with Boren.

This has to be encouraging news for Thompson, the latest entry into this race. His numbers surprised me, as I fully expected him to be either third or fourth.

Edmonds vs. Boren

Daniel Edmonds comes out as the big winner in this poll, garnering 28% of the vote compared to Boren's 44% - a 16 point deficit. This is by far the best Republican performance, being the highest and the lowest percentages for the respective candidates. Booth again received 8%.

Edmonds received the highest percentage of McCain voters, beating Boren 42-33. He got the most of the GOP candidates among liberals (23%) and moderates (15%), and came in a close second among conservatives, beating Boren 42%-28% (tied for the highest spread). He tied for most Democrat supporters (12%), was the clear leader among Republicans (56%), and came in third in Independents (23%). He also did best among female voters (26%), and was in a three-way tie on male voters (31%).

This poll placed Edmonds as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary - great news for his campaign. As well as he did, it would seem logical that he would have the best shot at swaying those undecideds away from Boren, and to him. Now, will he be able to transform this into greater fundraising figures?

Miki Booth

Miki Booth is running as an Independent, although there are rumors that she's switching to run as a Republican now. She's probably most well known for her outspokenness on the Obama birth certificate controversy - arguably her most talked about issue. Still, even as a 'birther' candidate, there were very interesting tidbits in this poll.

Booth received 7% or 8% in every single matchup, drawing equal percentages from McCain voters and Obama voters. This tells me that those are the people that refuse to vote for either a Republican or a Democrat candidate.

What's intriguing is that she draws 5%-8% of conservatives and moderates, while getting 14% of liberals in the Boren/Arnett matchup, 20% in the Boren/Edmonds grouping, 23% against Boren and Thompson, and 24% in the Boren/Houchen pairing. This is especially interesting given her 'birther' stand - another indication that her voters don't know (or care) what she stands for, only that she's not a Republican or a Democrat.

She draws 5% of Democrats in all the matchups, 8%-12% of Republicans, 10%-19% of Independents. She also does 3-6 points better among minorities than she does among whites, and does better among 18-29 year-olds and seniors citizens.

Conclusion

The winners in this poll are Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson. The results were very encouraging for them.

The losers are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Dan Boren. For Arnett, this has to be either a shape-up signal or a get-out-of-the-race call. For Houchen, it's a little embarrassing, given his perceived front-runner status. Boren should be disappointed at his somewhat unimpressive lead, as someone of his establishment should have performed better. This more than likely will shape up to be his toughest political climate ever.

Given that this poll has shown some possible vulnerability for Boren, the Republican candidates need to seriously consider whether or not they belong in the race. With four (and possibly more) candidates running, the likelihood of the race going to a runoff is fairly high. A runoff would essentially ruin a Republican candidate's chances, as valuable and hard-to-come-by resources would be wasted.

We remain committed to reporting the latest developments in this race. Keep an eye, and a mouse-click, on the Muskogee Politico blog!

PPP Poll: Edmonds Best Against Boren

Partly due to our efforts here at the Muskogee Politico blog, Public Policy Polling polled the 2nd District Congressional race this past weekend. The results were somewhat surprising.

PPP 2010 2nd District Congressional Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - pdf)

• Dan Boren (D) - 49%
• Dan Arnett (R) - 22%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 22%

Boren leads Arnett by 27%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 44%
• Daniel Edmonds (R) - 28%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 20%

Boren leads Edmonds by 16%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 48%
• Howard Houchen (R) - 26%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 19%

Boren leads Houchen by 22%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 45%
• Charles Thompson (R) - 25%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 21%

Boren leads Thompson by 20%.

Poll of 664 voters, February 26-28, with a MoE of 3.8%

Congressman Dan Boren holds substantial leads over potential Republican and Independent challengers, but smaller than one might expect, given his previous electoral performances (66%, 73%, and 70%, respectively). I was surprised that he was under 50%, myself.

Daniel Edmonds held him to 44%, Boren's worst performance, and got 28% in the poll, the highest performance. The ther candidates (Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson) were well outside the margin of error from Edmonds' showing against Boren.

Independent 'birther' candidate Miki Booth received 7-8% in each poll.

More analysis to come later [Update: click here for analysis]. For now, here are the results.

Help Poll the 2nd District - PPP Polling

Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm, holds regular online polls to determine where some of their next polls will take place. Seeing the lack of polling in the Oklahoma 2nd Congressional District, I have tried for weeks to convince them to poll the 2nd District race (Dan Boren's seat).

Three weeks ago, they included OK-2 in the poll. We came in a tight third, in a very hard-fought race.

Today, the 2nd District made it on as an option again.

We need your help to get this race polled, though. If OK-2 comes in first, it will be polled. If it comes in second, it will only be polled if the first-place is not a U.S. House race (i.e a gubernatorial race).

If you would like to see this race polled, go to the following link and vote for the "OK-2 (Dan Boren)" poll option. Vote here.

Vote in online PPP Polling poll

Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm, holds regular online polls to determine where some of their next polls will take place. Seeing the lack of polling in the Oklahoma 2nd District, I have tried for weeks to convince them to poll the 2nd District race (Dan Boren's seat).

Yesterday, they finally put it on as an option.

However, we need your help to get this race polled. The top two vote-getters will be polled this weekend. If you would like to see this race polled, go to the following link and vote for the "Oklahoma-2 (Dan Boren)" poll option. Vote here.

2nd District Candidate Ranking: Post 4Q FEC

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-4th Quarter FEC Reports

After the close of the 2009 3rd Quarter FEC reports, I issued my first 2nd District Candidate Ranking. The ranking is to be updated periodically. After the filing of the recent 4th Quarter reports, the ranking needed to be brought back up-to-date. None of this is to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog, merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the latest installment of the 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Howard Houchen (prev. 1st)

I still view Howard Houchen as the "frontrunner" among the current Republican candidates.

The latest FEC reports show that Houchen has raised $19,416 from individuals and $250 from PACs (more on that), and $5,866 in in-kind candidate contributions. He currently has $3,541 cash on hand. Houchen has been in the race the longest, having first announced in early May.

Houchen is a very aggressive and enthusiastic candidate, which can, has, and will be a drawback for some voters, while appealing to others. The Ron Paul/libertarian community seems to be rallying around Houchen, which again, may alienate some people.

Houchen does appear to have a weakness for joining any and every group out there that asks him to (such as Bring Home the Politicians, which aims to hold Congress from every state capitol via teleconference, as opposed to physically meeting in Washington at the Capitol), and I have noticed some strange stuff on his ethics reports - not illegal goings-on, per se, but just odd things (for instance, a PAC contribution was listed under 'Party Contributions' instead of the PAC category*).

That said, Houchen is having more success in raising money, even though he is spending most of it. He has also run some radio ads, and continues to nab interviews on various radio talk shows across Oklahoma. At this point in the game, advantage still Houchen.

* - UPDATE: the Houchen campaign contacted us, and said that the problem was on the FEC side of things, and that they have contacted the FEC numerous times to get it reported correctly.

2. Daniel Edmonds (prev. 2nd)

Daniel Edmonds still remains in second place.

Edmonds has grown as a candidate, and continues to improve as the campaign progresses. While all the candidates hold the same basic positions, Edmonds seems to be the candidate that can have the broadest appeal.

However, as with all of these candidates, Edmonds has difficulty raising funds. So far in the campaign, he has raised just $2,699 from individuals (and $9,382 in in-kind contributions from the candidate). At the close of 2009, he reported $2,707 cash on hand.

Despite his lower fundraising totals, Edmonds led the way in the opening months of the campaign when it came to campaign literature. His material was professional-looking and high quality, while the other candidates' fliers were not as profession. He clearly has a better understanding than the other candidates of what political literature should entail.

If Edmonds wants to jump into the lead, and break away from the pack, he will need to start showing much better fundraising reports.

3. Charles Thompson (prev. 4th)

Charles Thompson has moved up in our ranking, the only change so far. Thompson put his toe in the water back in June, dropped out a week later, and decided to get back in sometime in early September.

Thompson still hasn't officially filed his candidacy with the FEC, which means that he must not have raised or spent $5,000. He must be nearing that level, though, as he has attended meetings and parades across the district and launched a website.

He hasn't been in the race long enough to attract much support, but he does seem to be gaining volunteers at a faster pace than the other candidates. he does have a few ideas that are a little loony, such as this ill-advised one on constituent contact.

If Thompson can start to raise money (and file with the FEC, like he needs to do soon), he might begin to impact the race on a greater level.

4. Dan Arnett (prev. 3rd)

Dan Arnett has dropped to fourth place in our ranking, although in some aspects he has had more influence on this race than anyone else.

I see Arnett as being one of the biggest reasons that Congressman Dan Boren actually held town halls. When Arnett announced, and held town hall meetings of his own in front of each of Boren's congressional offices, he essentially called Boren out, and received media coverage in the process.

Since Arnett has been attending law school in Philadelphia for much of the campaign, he has been unable to be on the campaign trail. This has hurt his candidacy, especially since two new candidates have joined the race, and been very visible at GOP meetings across the area. Arnett has since transferred to the University of Tulsa, which will help him to appear at more events in the 2nd District.

He has raised $5,909 (of which $4,579 is in-kinds contributions) thus far in the campaign. However, Arnett is the only candidate in the race (including Dan Boren) that is carrying debt - to the tune of $6,467.*

Arnett is going to need to show that he can raise money and generate some grassroots interest if he wants to get anywhere this race.

* - UPDATE: "The Dan Arnett 2010 campaign decided, with the blessing and consultation of the Federal Election Commission, to list gas and travel expenditures from the start as loans to the campaign rather than In-Kind Donations. This allows the campaign committee to have a more realistic view of what has been donated as a service, such as an in-kind donation, and what may need to be repaid in the future, like a volunteer's fuel and toll booth costs. According to the FEC, loans may be, at the request of the lender, converted into a donation. Donations, however, may never be converted into a loan. This is why those costs are initially recorded as a loan. Simply stated, receipts collected from volunteers for legitimate travel expenses are recorded initially as a loan to the campaign but may, at the volunteer’s request be recorded as an in-kind donation. This is subject to the donation limits set by the FEC and a volunteer may not make an in-kind donation beyond what they could make as a standard donation. Win or lose, the campaign would like to keep track of costs that, under the FEC’s rules and regulations, are reimbursable so that donors and volunteers may have some of their money returned to them if there is a positive balance on the books at the end of the election process."

Arnett: A Gift from Boren this Holiday Season

Congressional candidate Dan Arnett issued the following release last night:

A Gift from Boren this Holiday Season

In the season of giving, Dan Boren recently voted to give future generations of Oklahomans a larger share of debt. On December 16, 2009 the House voted 218-214 to raise the limit of debt that the federal government may accrue by $290 billion. Thirty-nine Democrats, mostly blue dogs, and not a single Republican voted for the measure citing that this would allow the federal government to “pile even more irresponsible debt onto future generations.” Nancy Pelosi and House leadership had hoped to pass a $1.8 trillion increase in the debt limit but centrist Democrats opposed doing so without also creating a special commission to reduce the national debt.

The national debt has reached $12,000,000,000,000. Public debt makes up $7.6 trillion of the debt and has been borrowed from citizens and foreign countries. The remaining $4.4 trillion is debt held by the government and is borrowed from the surplus of other government agencies and programs, primarily from the social security trust fund.

The publicly held debt requires interest be paid to the debt holders and this interest is paid with tax payer dollars. In 2009 the interest payments amounted to $209 billion. Taxpayer dollars spent on interest payments is money that is not being spent on internal improvements, defense spending, or being returned to the taxpayer as a surplus.

The current track President Obama, Speaker Pelosi, and the enablers of their efforts like Representative Boren are leading us on is an unsustainable path. The recession coupled with the excessive spending on programs such as TARP, the bailouts of different private businesses and the auto industry, as well as the massive “stimulus” bill has caused the debt held by the public to grow to 56% of the economy. Spending on entitlement programs is expected to double in size over the next few decades and this will cause the national debt to become 320% of the economy.

In order to provide a better future for the next generation, or at least a future as good as the one past generations of Americans had, Congress should build tighter budget controls, reform entitlement programs, and cut wasteful spending. Representative Boren and his 217 colleagues need to work to lower the deficit, not vote to spend and borrow even more taxpayer dollars.

Being a Boren should not entitle our representative to win re-election when he continually votes the future of his constituents down the tubes. I believe children this year would have preferred a lump of coal in their stocking compared to what Mr. Boren just sent them for Christmas.

Arnett is running in the Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District. The GOP primary will be held on July 27, 2010. Fellow candidates are Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson.

2nd District Congressional Race Update: Edmonds Visits All 2nd District Counties

The following press release was just received from Republican Congressional candidate Daniel Edmonds:

Edmonds Visits All 25 Counties in District 2 in 2009

MORRIS, OK – Daniel Edmonds, the conservative candidate for Oklahoma’s U.S. Congressional District 2 seat, recently completed a tour of all 25 counties within the District. Since his filing to run for U.S. Congress in August, Edmonds has shared his message of liberty with citizens in each county through candidate forums, parades, county Republican meetings, group conferences, and one-on-one meetings.

“I’m excited with the positive reception the Edmonds 2 Congress campaign has received in all locales of the District. The citizens of the Second District are ready for a positive change in the way our federal government is acting,” Edmonds said, “and for a positive change in our current representation.

Our message of liberty, limited government, respect for the Constitution, respect for life, and personal responsibility resonates with individuals who care about our country, our heritage, and our legacy.”

The upcoming year promises to be an exciting one as the primary election draws nearer.

Edmonds plans to continue visiting with citizens in all 25 counties in 2010 and looks forward to meeting with as many as he can to share his vision for the Second District. Everyone is invited to visit http://danieledmonds.org to learn more about Daniel Edmonds' Congressional campaign and to find ways to contact him.

Edmonds is running in the Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District. The GOP primary will be held on July 27, 2010. Fellow candidates are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson. I am awaiting information from an Independent candidate, which should be available soon.

Dan Arnett Announces Campaign Tour

From Second Congressional District candidate Dan Arnett (R-Henryetta):

Dan Arnett Announces Tour of Oklahoma Colleges and Universities

Over 99,437,266 Americans are under the age of 25 according to the last US Census. That age group is roughly one third of the entire population. It is that generation’s fate that is being debated on Capitol Hill. Health Care, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and taxation affects everyone but the costs will more heavily burden this and the next generation. Starting in December, the Dan Arnett campaign will begin touring area schools and universities in order to give students a chance to ask tough questions and to make their voices heard. “I believe it is important for this generation to step up to the plate. If we want our republic to succeed, it will be up to us.” Dan encourages students to be informed, to vote, and to run for office.

December 3, 2009 – Q & A with Dan Arnett at Murray State College. Time: 2pm. Location Aggie Dining Hall in the Student Union, Tishomingo, OK.

December 8, 2009 - Q & A with Dan Arnett at Coal County. Time: 6pm. Location: Esther's Country Grill in Coalgate.

December 10, 2009 – Q & A with Dan Arnett at Oklahoma Christian University. Time: 7pm. Location: Williams-Branch Center for Biblical Studies room 124.

January 14, 2010 – Q & A with Dan Arnett at Northeastern Oklahoma A & M College. Time 12:15pm. Location: Coppen Hall Room 119, Miami, OK.

February 1, 2010 – Bryan County GOP and Conservative Club. Time: 6:30-8pm. Location: TBA.

February 23, 2010 – Q & A with Dan Arnett with the Okfuskee County GOP. Time: 6:30. Location: Brick Street Cafe in Okemah, OK.

The list will be updated as times and locations are settled upon. Additionally, negotiations are under way with the schools and/or other campus organizations to set up a “Q & A with Dan Arnett” at the following colleges and universities for January and February: Bacone College, Carl Albert State College, Eastern Oklahoma State College, Northeastern State University, Oklahoma State University, Oral Roberts University, Rogers State University, Southeastern Oklahoma State University, The University of Oklahoma.

If you would like to have Dan Arnett come to your school, whether a college or high school, Please contact Dan at dan@danarnettforcongress.com.

Arnett is running against Democrat incumbent Dan Boren, and fellow Republican challengers Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson.

2nd District Candidate Ranking: Post 3Q FEC

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-3rd Quarter FEC Reports

I have decided to periodically issue a ranking of the 2010 Republican candidates for the 2nd District Congressional seat, based on how I see the race shaping up. None of this is to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog, merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the very first 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Howard Houchen

Currently, I see Howard Houchen as the "frontrunner", and the candidate to beat on the Republican side.

FEC reports show that Houchen has raised more money than the other candidates, and currently has around $8000 cash on hand (the next closest candidate has about $2000). Houchen has been in the race the longest, first announcing in early May.

Houchen is a candidate with a very aggressive personality, which can (and will) turn off some voters, but will appeal to others. One specific group that is supporting Houchen is the Ron Paul/libertarian wing of the GOP. Whether he can get enough support from them, financially and/or volunteering, to win remains to be seen.

At this point in the game, I view Howard Houchen as the leader.

2. Daniel Edmonds

I place Daniel Edmonds in second place for a variety of reasons.

Edmonds is the newest of the "big three" candidates, and as such had a fairly low fundraising total in the 3rd Quarter, raising $1990 from individuals (and $4941 in in-kind donations from the candidate).

When it comes to campaign material, Edmonds is definitely in first place, however. His fliers are very professional-looking and high quality, while most of the other candidates' handouts look cheap and home-printed in comparison.

Both Edmonds and Houchen have been getting around to GOP meetings in the district. This next quarter will be very interesting to watch - I see Edmonds having a chance to knock Houchen out of first place if he can have a good fundraising drive and begin to show more support among the party faithful.

3. Dan Arnett

Dan Arnett is in third place, although in some aspects he has had more influence on this race than anyone else.

I see Arnett as being one of the biggest reasons that Congressman Dan Boren actually held town halls. When Arnett announced, and held town hall meetings of his own in front of each of Boren's congressional offices, he essentially called Boren out, and received media coverage in the process.

Arnett has been attending law school in Philadelphia (and working in Oklahoma City), which has greatly hampered his ability to campaign. He will be transferring to the University of Tulsa soon, which will enable him to devote more time to the race. The next few months will be crucial for Arnett, as he will need to show that he can compete with the other candidates.

4. Charles Thompson

In fourth place we have Charles Thompson. Thompson initially got in the race in June, but dropped out a week later. He decided to get back in sometime in early September.

Thompson has yet to officially file his candidacy with the FEC. He has attended a few meetings in the district, and launched a website.

He hasn't been in the race long enough to attract much support, and it remains to be seen how much he will impact (or how long he will stay in) the race. Some of his ideas are somewhat peculiar, such as this one on constituent contact.