Saturday, October 17, 2009

2nd District Candidate Ranking: Post 3Q FEC


The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-3rd Quarter FEC Reports

I have decided to periodically issue a ranking of the 2010 Republican candidates for the 2nd District Congressional seat, based on how I see the race shaping up. None of this is to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog, merely my view of the race as it currently stands.


And now, without further ado, I present the very first 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Howard Houchen

Currently, I see Howard Houchen as the "frontrunner", and the candidate to beat on the Republican side.

FEC reports show that Houchen has raised more money than the other candidates, and currently has around $8000 cash on hand (the next closest candidate has about $2000). Houchen has been in the race the longest, first announcing in early May.

Houchen is a candidate with a very aggressive personality, which can (and will) turn off some voters, but will appeal to others. One specific group that is supporting Houchen is the Ron Paul/libertarian wing of the GOP. Whether he can get enough support from them, financially and/or volunteering, to win remains to be seen.

At this point in the game, I view Howard Houchen as the leader.

2. Daniel Edmonds

I place Daniel Edmonds in second place for a variety of reasons.

Edmonds is the newest of the "big three" candidates, and as such had a fairly low fundraising total in the 3rd Quarter, raising $1990 from individuals (and $4941 in in-kind donations from the candidate).

When it comes to campaign material, Edmonds is definitely in first place, however. His fliers are very professional-looking and high quality, while most of the other candidates' handouts look cheap and home-printed in comparison.

Both Edmonds and Houchen have been getting around to GOP meetings in the district. This next quarter will be very interesting to watch - I see Edmonds having a chance to knock Houchen out of first place if he can have a good fundraising drive and begin to show more support among the party faithful.

3. Dan Arnett

Dan Arnett is in third place, although in some aspects he has had more influence on this race than anyone else.

I see Arnett as being one of the biggest reasons that Congressman Dan Boren actually held town halls. When Arnett announced, and held town hall meetings of his own in front of each of Boren's congressional offices, he essentially called Boren out, and received media coverage in the process.

Arnett has been attending law school in Philadelphia (and working in Oklahoma City), which has greatly hampered his ability to campaign. He will be transferring to the University of Tulsa soon, which will enable him to devote more time to the race. The next few months will be crucial for Arnett, as he will need to show that he can compete with the other candidates.

4. Charles Thompson

In fourth place we have Charles Thompson. Thompson initially got in the race in June, but dropped out a week later. He decided to get back in sometime in early September.

Thompson has yet to officially file his candidacy with the FEC. He has attended a few meetings in the district, and launched a website.

He hasn't been in the race long enough to attract much support, and it remains to be seen how much he will impact (or how long he will stay in) the race. Some of his ideas are somewhat peculiar, such as this one on constituent contact.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Arnett "has had more influence on this race than anyone else" but "will need to show that he can compete with the other candidates." That doesn't really make a lot of sense.

MuskogeePolitico said...

Anonymous:

I did say "in some aspects" before what you quoted.

In my opinion, Arnett has had the most impact on the race, for those outside of the relatively few GOP faithful who have attended meetings featuring the candidates. I think that Dan was a big factor in Dan Boren finally agreeing to hold public town hall meetings.

He has played a role that none of the other candidates have. That said, I think he has a ways to go to show that he can take on the other candidates, and come out on top.

Does that explain it better?