Thursday, January 25, 2024

MAPS: Oklahoma voter registration changes, 2023 to 2024

Here we go with the latest installment of my long-running Voter Registration Maps series. These statistics are from the annual January 15th report from the State Election Board.

In this post, I have graphics showing registration leader by county, majority/plurality by county, and registration swing by county. We'll look at some additional data in another post. Take a look, and share with your friends:

You can click each image to view it larger.

The lone county with a Democratic voter registration lead continues to be Coal County (1.2% lead). In January 2020, Democrats held majority status in 14 counties. Cherokee County is the next closest, with a GOP lead of 2.76%, followed by Oklahoma County with a 6.67% GOP lead. Only three other counties have single-digit leads, all in the Republican column: McIntosh (7.02%), Latimer (9.3%), and Muskogee (9.91%).

Major County has the widest gap, with 79.17% Republicans, 10.72% Independents (a distance of 68.46%)... and 9.22% Democrats. Yes, Democrats now trail Independent voters in six counties (up from two a year ago). Statewide, 51.74% of voters are Republicans and 28.36% are Democrats, a gap of 23.38%. Independents are not far behind, at 18.95%, with Libertarians at 0.952% of registered voters.

Independent voters rank over 20% in four counties: Cleveland (21.55%), Comanche (23.94%), Oklahoma (22.46%), and Tulsa (20.66%), and outnumber Democrats in six counties (Beaver, Garfield, Major, Texas, Washington, and Woodward). Libertarians are now 0.952% statewide, and over 1% in thirteen counties: Canadian (1.144%), Cherokee (1.009%), Cleveland (1.142%), Custer (1.025%), Garfield (1.064%), Jackson (1.287%), Logan (1.015%), Oklahoma (1.048%), Payne (1.199%), Pottawatomie (1.05%), Texas (1.003%), Tulsa (1.027%), and Woods (1.01%)

The above map shows the leading political party by county, whether holding a plurality or an outright majority of registered voters. The blue color that once dominated the state has all but completely disappeared. Democrats are now down to a single county where they hold a slim plurality of voters (Coal County). Based on past presidential election year trends, I figure Coal County will finally go red in registration this year (an astounding thought given where Coal was even just a few years ago).

The GOP has plurality leads in 12 counties, and outright majorities in the remaining 64 counties.

This is the first year since I started doing these maps where the Republican Party actually shrunk slightly as a percentage. The continued collapse of the Democratic Party, however, still resulted in a net swing toward the GOP of just under one percent. Independents continue to grow (Libertarians also, at a snail's pace), at the expense of the two major parties.

In my next Voter Registration Maps post, we'll look at the individual party movements by county.


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