Tuesday, July 23, 2019

2019 Republican District Ratings for Oklahoma Legislature

Here's the 2019 update to my Republican District Ratings, the 2017 version of which can be viewed here.

This rating system is to determine how "Republican" each state house and state senate district is. The formula is comprised of three elements: federal-level (most recent Republican presidential nominee's in-district vote percentage), state-level (most recent Republican gubernatorial nominee's in-district vote percentage), and local-level (in-district voter registration).

If a district might be rated 50.0, that does not mean the Democrat rating would also be 50.0, as I didn't split the remaining portion up between Democrat, Libertarian and Independent. This system simply rates on how Republican a district is. Perhaps another way of putting it is this: a generic Republican candidate should be able to get no less than the RDR in his district.

Have a look at each full list. Given the massive turnover in the 2018 election, I marked which members are freshmen (i.e. elected in 2018). I also added in a new feature, the upward or downward movement of each district compared to my first rating in 2016.

I'll post the related 2019 Conservative Performance Index soon, likely in the next month or so, where we'll examine each legislator's conservative score (an average of two different conservative rating systems) and compare it to their district's Republican rating.

Up first, State House:


Northwest Oklahoma has the top three Republican districts; HD61 maintained top-status with a rating of 72.4, with HD58 (71.4) and HD59 (70.9) in second and third. There's a four-point gap to fourth place, where HD41 comes in with a rating of 66.9. Broken Arrow's HD80 comes in fifth at 66.5, which is a drop of 3.1 since my first ratings were released in 2016.

The five least Republican districts are HD73 in north Tulsa (10.2), HD99 (16.3) and HD97 (22.6) and HD88 (26.0) in Oklahoma City, and HD44 (28.0) in Norman.

The average rating for all House seats is down 0.2 points to 52.0 (2016 average was 51.9). For Republican-held seats, the average held flat at 56.7, the same as in 2016, while Democrat-held seats fell 3.3 points to an average of 37.1 (2016 was 40.4).

The five most-Republican seats held by Democrats are HD7 (51.5) in the northeast, HD79 (50.3) in Tulsa, HD83 (48.0) and HD85 (46.6) in OKC, and HD46 (46.5) in Norman..

The five least-Republican seats held by Republicans are HD62 (39.8) in Lawton, HD13 in Muskogee and McIntosh counties, HD64 (40.7) in Lawton, HD95 (44.4) in Midwest City, and HD14 (46.0) in Muskogee and Cherokee counties.

Average change since 2016 for urban House districts:
  • OKC metro, GOP-held: -3.52
  • OKC metro, Dem-held: -4.7
  • OKC metro, combined: -4.07
  • Tulsa metro, GOP-held: -2.74
  • Tulsa metro, Dem-held: -3.92
  • Tulsa metro, combined: -3.09
  • Other urban (Lawton/Stillwater/Enid): -2.4
  • All urban, GOP-held: -3.15
  • All urban, Dem-held: -4.47
  • All urban, combined: -3.58
Average change since 2016 for rural House districts:
  • Rural, GOP-held: +4.32
  • Rural, Dem-held: +2.9
  • Rural, combined: +4.23


Now, let's look at the State Senate:


The most Republican district is again in far northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle - SD27 at a rating of 72.8. Next are SD19 (65.9) in the Enid area, SD20 (63.7) in the Guthrie and Pawnee area, SD23 (63.6) on the west side of the OKC metro, and SD25 (63.6) in south Tulsa.

The five least Republican districts are SD11 in  north Tulsa (26.3), SD48 (27.3) and SD46 (35.8) in Oklahoma City, SD16 (41.2) in Cleveland County, and SD9 (42.7) in Muskogee and Cherokee counties.

The average rating for all Senate seats is up 0.6 points to 54.1. For Republican-held seats, it's up 1.1 points to 56.6, while for Democrat-held seats it's up 1.7 points to 43.5.

The five most Republican seats held by Democrats are SD34 in Owasso at 58.7, SD37 in Tulsa (57.5), SD44 (50.2) and SD30 (49.6) and SD40 (44.7) - all in OKC.

The five least Republican seats held by Republicans are SD9 (42.7), Midwest City's SD42 (47.0), Lawton's SD32 (47.5), two rural southeast districts, SD8 (47.5) and SD7 (48.7).

Average change since 2016 for urban Senate districts:
  • OKC metro, GOP-held: -3.41
  • OKC metro, Dem-held: +1.37
  • OKC metro, combined: -1.36
  • Tulsa metro, GOP-held: -3.32
  • Tulsa metro, Dem-held: +4.0
  • Tulsa metro, combined: -1.23
  • All urban, GOP-held: -3.38
  • All urban, Dem-held: +2.03
  • All urban, combined: -1.32
Average change since 2016 for rural Senate districts:
  • Rural, GOP-held: +4.91
  • Rural, Dem-held: [none]
  • Rural, combined: +4.91



If you'd like to see maps to show where all the different districts are, go here for State House maps and here for State Senate maps.

BONUS

I've added two more sheets: one showing all House and Senate districts together for comparison, and the other sorted by the percentage changes each district had since the 2016 rating.

Here's the House and Senate combined, to show the RDR for all 149 districts:

This one is is sorted by the percentage changes each district had since 2016:

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