Saturday, January 2, 2016

Trump leads Cruz 32% to 28% in new Oklahoma poll


A brand new (as in, started in October) website casting itself as a polling organization has a new set of polls for the Republican and Democratic primaries in Oklahoma. Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt -- more on that below the report.

OvertimePolitics.com Oklahoma Republican Primary Poll ­ Dec 26­-29, 2015
Donald Trump holds a slight 4 point lead over Ted Cruz in Oklahoma ­ 32%-28%

Ted Cruz has narrowed the gap between himself and Donald Trump nationally, and it appears as though he is doing so in Oklahoma as well. Though Oklahoma does border Texas, Trump’s support is not quite as strong as he would probably like in the Sooner State.

In a distant 3rd place, in danger of missing the 15% threshold for any delegates, is Marco Rubio at 14%. Beyond that, Ben Carson has seemingly disappeared from the scene with 6%. The “other” category polled better than all but the top 4 candidates, while 6% of voters still do not know who they will vote for.

This poll was conducted by telephone to include 398 likely Republican Primary voters, with a margin of error of 5.2%. Phone numbers were selected at random through public phone records and cell phone lists.

Likely Republican Primary voters were asked the following question:

1. Who do you plan on voting for in the 2016 Republican Primary? Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, a candidate I did not name, or are you undecided?

Results:
Donald Trump ­ 127 ­ 32%
Ted Cruz ­ 111 ­ 28%
Marco Rubio ­ 56 ­ 14%
Ben Carson ­ 24 ­ 6%
Jeb Bush ­ 15 ­ 4%
Rand Paul ­ 8 ­ 2%
Chris Christie ­ 7 ­ 2%
Carly Fiorina ­ 5 ­ 1%
John Kasich ­ 3%
Other ­ 17 ­ 4%
Undecided ­ 25 ­ 6%

Like I said earlier, OvertimePolitics appears to have been started in October, so they have zero track record on polling accuracy. Furthermore, their methodology appears to be very unorthodox and unscientific, with no demographic sorting or weighting. It's simply the first X number of people who answer the phone. In that case, the margin of error figure they give is pretty much just made up.

That said, the most recent Oklahoma poll by an established and respected organization (SoonerPoll, Nov. 15th) had Trump leading Cruz 27.1% to 18.3%. SoonerPoll also had the same top four as OvertimePolitics - although at the time SoonerPoll had Rubio in fourth (16.3%) and Carson in third (17.5%).

So, once again, take this particular polling organization with a big grain of salt. On the Democratic side of things, they have Clinton leading Sanders in Oklahoma by 51% to 41%.

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