No Congressional Run for Corn

Former State Senator Kenneth Corn (D-Poteau) announced today that he will not be running to succeed Congressman Dan Boren in the 2nd Congressional District, following the recent death of his mother.


"After much soul searching and because of pressing personal matters brought on by the heart-breaking death of my mother only days ago, I have decided that I will not be a candidate for the 2nd Congressional District seat being vacated by Dan Boren," Corn said in a statement on Facebook.

"Previously I had indicated I would likely be a candidate and that was very true. However, my mother's passing has changed my needs and the needs of my family, and I know that the needs of my house far outreach the importance of a seat in the House."

Corn's exit leaves no visible Democrat candidate in the works; presently, there are nearly ten Republicans who have either announced their candidacy or are considering running for the seat (ironically, several of those individuals live outside of the 2nd District).

Back in June, Public Policy Polling conducted a survey of the district on behalf of Brad Carson, who at the time was considering running, but ultimately decided to not run. The poll found that Corn was essentially tied with State Rep. George Faught (R-Muskogee), even though Corn had built up name recognition from his 2010 statewide campaign for Lieutenant Governor.

With both Carson and Corn out of the running, things are looking bad for the Democrats.

Monday Evening Roundup

PPP poll: Huckabee lone Republican to beat Obama

In Public Policy Polling's latest 2012 presidential poll, Mike Huckabee is the only Republican who tops President Obama (47%-44%). Huckabee was also the only Republican to have positive favorability ratings. The other potential GOP candidates polled were Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Newt Gingrich, and PPP tossed Glenn Beck in as a novelty.

Traditional family key to economic health of nation

Brandon Dutcher penned an excellent column on the massive - and positive - economic impact of the traditional family model; in particular, married homemakers. It simply is a must-read.

Hamas selling confiscated humanitarian aid

A journalist who recently visited the Gaza Strip says that Hamas has confiscated international humanitarian aid, and is forcing Gazans to buy the goods, such as medicine (ironically labeled "not for resale").

Sri Lankan MP's eloquent speech over strong-arm, dictatorial move

Blogger Adam Brickley at RightOSphere posted a video from a speech delivered by Sri Lankan Member of Parliament M.A. Sumanthiran. Sumanthiran was objecting to the government ramming through legislation to remove presidential term limits, and consolidate power in the hands of the President -- and filed under "emergency" procedures, barely giving time to print and distribute copies of the bill before it was brought up. The U.S. State Department has condemned the bill. The speech was given in English, so you can watch it if you wish, or you can read the text here. Sumanthiran gave a very eloquent speech (much interrupted by shouting from the majority coalition), but the chamber passed the measure over his objections.

Muskogee Politico readers' political affiliation

According to our unscientific online poll (in which 90 votes were cast), 80% of our readers are Republicans, 12% are Democrats, and 7% are Independents.

Press Release: Edmonds Leads Republican Pack

Congressional candidate Daniel Edmonds issued the following press release today.

Edmonds Leads Republican Pack in District 2 Congressional Race

MORRIS, OK – Daniel Edmonds, Republican candidate for Oklahoma’s Second Congressional District offers the best chance for Republicans to defeat current Democrat Congressman Dan Boren, according to Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm. Results of the recently released poll show Daniel Edmonds as the leading Republican candidate and the best candidate to run against incumbent Boren. Edmonds received a significantly higher vote percentage than any of the other Republican candidates. He also kept Boren’s vote percentage substantially under 50% which was the lowest in the poll. Daniel Edmonds is leading the way with the highest name recognition of the Republican candidates as well.

“Our message of liberty, limited government, respect for the Constitution, respect for life, and personal responsibility resonates with individuals who care about our country, our heritage, and our legacy,” Edmonds said. “We are excited about the support our campaign is receiving as I believe I have the education and background to best represent District 2 Oklahomans in Washington.”

“The Republican primary election will be held July 27 and we are working to meet with as many constituents as possible. We are pleased with the results at this point in the campaign, but winning the primary in July and ultimately the general election in the voting booth is our goal. Over the next few months, we will be working hard to tell the Second District who I am and where I stand on the issues pertinent to our district and our country.”

To view poll results, visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com. To learn more about Daniel Edmonds and his current campaign for Oklahoma’s U.S. Congressional District 2 Seat, visit http://danieledmonds.org.

You can view the PPP poll results in our post here, and you can read my analysis here.

Boren Hypocrisy on Rangel, Health Care?

This must be the week for news relating to Congressman Dan Boren (D, OK-2)! The Bryan County Republican Party sent this release out earlier this week.

ALERT:

On February 24, [Congressman] Boren sent out a release that he would vote against the health care bill as it "raises taxes on businesses, creates job-killing mandates, grows the size of government, and cuts services to seniors."

And now today (March 3) Boren is sending out statements all over calling on Charlie Rangel to step down from his position as the House Ways and Means Chairman - the head of the powerful committee that sets tax and budget policies, because "I feel that all members of Congress should be held to the highest ethical standards and these preliminary findings are very troubling."

THE FACTS:

Last October 7, after a long investigation already into Rangel's activities which included shaking down an oil company's CEO, and allegations of tax evasion and failure to report income, a resolution came to the floor of Congress to remove Rangel from his place due to the severity of the claims against him. (These are detailed well in the [following] link). However, Dan Boren voted when it counted to KEEP Rangel in place, just sending the resolution back to the ethics committee to continue investigating while not removing Rangel - despite the fact that the committee had been investigating Rangel for well over a year before that and revelations of Rangel hiding at least 500,000 in assets, investment properties not reported, getting sweetheart deals from the IRS in not paying penalties or interests and others.

What did Boren's crucial vote at that time allow Rangel to do? Right after Boren voted to keep Rangel in the Chairmanship, Rangel then facilitated the adjustment of the Health Care bill to allow more of it to fall under the "Nuclear Option" - which will allow the bill to pass Reconciliation in the Senate to cram the vote through with only 50 votes. The news story on this is in the [following] article.

Boren's actual vote - not what he is saying at home - is helping to facilitate the passage of the federal takeover on health care. We need to be informed and very careful about holding him to his actual record in DC - he is getting very savvy at voting no in highly publicized things, but when no one is looking, voting to facilitate the movement forward of legislation that still promotes Obama/Pelosi's plans to grow government.

The Bryan County GOP brought up Boren's October vote up in one of their meetings late last fall. With the results from Public Policy Polling's survey, is Boren going to be vulnerable to inconsistencies like these?

PPP 2nd District Poll Analysis

As promised, here's a more detailed look at the results from the Public Policy Polling survey of the 2nd District race.

I'll just start at the beginning, and give my commentary as we go down. You can "follow along" on this pdf if you like - I won't cover everything, and there's some fascinating stuff in these crosstabs.

For starters, 8% of the respondents identify as liberals, 45% as moderates, and 47% as conservatives. 55% call themselves Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 11% Independents.

Obama

President Obama gets a 27% approval rating, and a 65% disapproval. Not terribly surprising, since he lost this district by a somewhat similar margin. However, 20% of 2008 Obama voters disapprove. Liberals approve by a 2-1 margin, but he loses moderates (40-51) and conservatives (10-85). 47% of Democrats disapprove, while 42% approve. Republicans and Independents are overwhelmingly disapproving. Another interesting item: voters are slightly more approving the older they get - his worst approval rating (20%) is with 18-29 year-olds, and his best is with senior citizens (31%).

Boren

Congressman Boren gets a 51/33 approval rating, virtually identical percentages among McCain and Obama voters. He gets slightly higher approval among conservatives (46/38) than he does liberals (43/38), but moderates are higher (57/27). While there was no significant difference among gender in Obama's approval, woman are very approving of Boren (52/26), while men are mixed (49/40). Democrats approve on a 55/27 split, Republicans somewhat approve (47/38), but independents are divided (40/43).

11% of poll respondents consider Boren to be too conservative, 31% say he's too liberal, and 45% says he's just about right.

I fully expected Boren to be over 50% - in fact, I half-thought he'd be at or around 60%. For him to be in the mid- to upper-40s (as you will see below) surprised me. Could he be vulnerable? The odds are still long at defeating him, but it can't be put completely out of the question, especially if the Republican nominee can improve his own name recognition percentages.

Health Care

17% approve of the health care bill passed by the House in November, while 61% disapprove. Liberals approve (54/34), but moderates (26/43) and conservatives (2/82) don't. Democrats (29/42), Republicans (2/86) and Independents (5/78) all disapprove.

32% think that Boren voted for the health care bill, but only 30% actually get it right, and say that he voted against it.

Arnett vs. Boren

Dan Arnett was the poorest performer against Boren, attracting only 22% of the vote against Boren's 49% - a 27 point deficit. These were the lowest and the highest numbers for the respective candidates. Independent Miki Booth received 7%, and 22% were undecided.

Arnett lost McCain voters to Boren 33-39, barely won conservatives (33-32), and got the lowest marks among moderates (10%) and liberals (12%). He also got the lowest marks among Republicans (42%) and Independents (19%).

This poll was obviously not kind to Arnett, who seems to be struggling more so than the other candidates to gain traction.

Houchen vs. Boren

Howard Houchen surprisingly had the second-worst performance, earning 26% to Boren's 48%, a 22 point deficit. Booth again received 7% of the vote.

Houchen edged out Boren in McCain voters 39-36. He gets the highest mark (ties the highest spread) in conservatives, beating Boren 43-29. He has the second-best performance among Republicans (51%), and the best showing among Independents, beating Boren 27-25.

This wasn't the best news for Houchen, as he has widely been considered the frontrunner (he's placed first in both of our candidates rankings to date). It's also by no means crushing information, but it's not great, either. I was, frankly, surprised at his showing.

Thompson vs. Boren

Charles Thompson had the second-best showing in this poll, getting 25% of the vote to Boren's 45% - a 20 point deficit. Booth received 8% this time.

Thompson won McCain voters 38-33. He came in second of the GOP candidates among liberals (20%) and third among conservatives, beating Boren 39-28. He was tied for first among Democrats (12%), third among Republicans (48%), and second in Independents (25%) - tied with Boren.

This has to be encouraging news for Thompson, the latest entry into this race. His numbers surprised me, as I fully expected him to be either third or fourth.

Edmonds vs. Boren

Daniel Edmonds comes out as the big winner in this poll, garnering 28% of the vote compared to Boren's 44% - a 16 point deficit. This is by far the best Republican performance, being the highest and the lowest percentages for the respective candidates. Booth again received 8%.

Edmonds received the highest percentage of McCain voters, beating Boren 42-33. He got the most of the GOP candidates among liberals (23%) and moderates (15%), and came in a close second among conservatives, beating Boren 42%-28% (tied for the highest spread). He tied for most Democrat supporters (12%), was the clear leader among Republicans (56%), and came in third in Independents (23%). He also did best among female voters (26%), and was in a three-way tie on male voters (31%).

This poll placed Edmonds as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary - great news for his campaign. As well as he did, it would seem logical that he would have the best shot at swaying those undecideds away from Boren, and to him. Now, will he be able to transform this into greater fundraising figures?

Miki Booth

Miki Booth is running as an Independent, although there are rumors that she's switching to run as a Republican now. She's probably most well known for her outspokenness on the Obama birth certificate controversy - arguably her most talked about issue. Still, even as a 'birther' candidate, there were very interesting tidbits in this poll.

Booth received 7% or 8% in every single matchup, drawing equal percentages from McCain voters and Obama voters. This tells me that those are the people that refuse to vote for either a Republican or a Democrat candidate.

What's intriguing is that she draws 5%-8% of conservatives and moderates, while getting 14% of liberals in the Boren/Arnett matchup, 20% in the Boren/Edmonds grouping, 23% against Boren and Thompson, and 24% in the Boren/Houchen pairing. This is especially interesting given her 'birther' stand - another indication that her voters don't know (or care) what she stands for, only that she's not a Republican or a Democrat.

She draws 5% of Democrats in all the matchups, 8%-12% of Republicans, 10%-19% of Independents. She also does 3-6 points better among minorities than she does among whites, and does better among 18-29 year-olds and seniors citizens.

Conclusion

The winners in this poll are Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson. The results were very encouraging for them.

The losers are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Dan Boren. For Arnett, this has to be either a shape-up signal or a get-out-of-the-race call. For Houchen, it's a little embarrassing, given his perceived front-runner status. Boren should be disappointed at his somewhat unimpressive lead, as someone of his establishment should have performed better. This more than likely will shape up to be his toughest political climate ever.

Given that this poll has shown some possible vulnerability for Boren, the Republican candidates need to seriously consider whether or not they belong in the race. With four (and possibly more) candidates running, the likelihood of the race going to a runoff is fairly high. A runoff would essentially ruin a Republican candidate's chances, as valuable and hard-to-come-by resources would be wasted.

We remain committed to reporting the latest developments in this race. Keep an eye, and a mouse-click, on the Muskogee Politico blog!

PPP Poll: Edmonds Best Against Boren

Partly due to our efforts here at the Muskogee Politico blog, Public Policy Polling polled the 2nd District Congressional race this past weekend. The results were somewhat surprising.

PPP 2010 2nd District Congressional Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - pdf)

• Dan Boren (D) - 49%
• Dan Arnett (R) - 22%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 22%

Boren leads Arnett by 27%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 44%
• Daniel Edmonds (R) - 28%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 20%

Boren leads Edmonds by 16%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 48%
• Howard Houchen (R) - 26%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 19%

Boren leads Houchen by 22%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 45%
• Charles Thompson (R) - 25%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 21%

Boren leads Thompson by 20%.

Poll of 664 voters, February 26-28, with a MoE of 3.8%

Congressman Dan Boren holds substantial leads over potential Republican and Independent challengers, but smaller than one might expect, given his previous electoral performances (66%, 73%, and 70%, respectively). I was surprised that he was under 50%, myself.

Daniel Edmonds held him to 44%, Boren's worst performance, and got 28% in the poll, the highest performance. The ther candidates (Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson) were well outside the margin of error from Edmonds' showing against Boren.

Independent 'birther' candidate Miki Booth received 7-8% in each poll.

More analysis to come later [Update: click here for analysis]. For now, here are the results.

Help Poll the 2nd District - PPP Polling

Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm, holds regular online polls to determine where some of their next polls will take place. Seeing the lack of polling in the Oklahoma 2nd Congressional District, I have tried for weeks to convince them to poll the 2nd District race (Dan Boren's seat).

Three weeks ago, they included OK-2 in the poll. We came in a tight third, in a very hard-fought race.

Today, the 2nd District made it on as an option again.

We need your help to get this race polled, though. If OK-2 comes in first, it will be polled. If it comes in second, it will only be polled if the first-place is not a U.S. House race (i.e a gubernatorial race).

If you would like to see this race polled, go to the following link and vote for the "OK-2 (Dan Boren)" poll option. Vote here.

Vote in online PPP Polling poll

Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm, holds regular online polls to determine where some of their next polls will take place. Seeing the lack of polling in the Oklahoma 2nd District, I have tried for weeks to convince them to poll the 2nd District race (Dan Boren's seat).

Yesterday, they finally put it on as an option.

However, we need your help to get this race polled. The top two vote-getters will be polled this weekend. If you would like to see this race polled, go to the following link and vote for the "Oklahoma-2 (Dan Boren)" poll option. Vote here.