Friday, November 04, 2022

75 to 2: Oklahoma Dems lead voter registration in just TWO counties, fall BEHIND Indies in one

Some big news here in the latest of my long-running Voter Registration Maps series. These statistics used in these graphics are sourced from the November 1st pre-election report from the State Election Board.

The top map shows the leading political party by county, whether holding a plurality or an outright majority of registered voters. The blue color has rapidly melted over the past few years; Democrats no longer hold a majority in any county, and are now down to just two where they have slim pluralities. The end is very near for these last remaining leads:
  • Cherokee County (1.37% lead)
  • Coal County (6.69% lead)
The GOP has plurality leads in 21 counties, and outright majorities in the remaining 54 counties.

For nostalgia purposes, Democrats can look at my first map and see how much of Oklahoma was still blue and dark-blue in 2013. The change has been something to behold.

Thanks in large part to Democratic registration collapse, Republicans made positive gains in 75 of 77 counties. In Beaver and Canadian counties, the only two where the GOP fell as a percentage of registered voters, the growth of Independents was the primary factor.

Coal County, long the county with the highest percentage of registered Democrats, and the last to lose majority status, had a massive 20.35% swing toward the GOP since January of this year. In January 2019, Coal County still had just over 70% Democratic registration; it now stands at 47.67%, with a mere 6.69% lead over the GOP.

Republicans did slide in raw percentage in eight counties, but those losses were offset by steeper Democratic declines. The growth of Independents, as mentioned earlier, was the main ingredient in most of those counties.

Republicans now have 51.19% of registered voters statewide.

Once again, Democrats lost ground in every single county. Independents are hurting Democratic registration across the state. Coal County was far and away the biggest loser, nearly twice the loss of the nearest competitors (Pushmataha and Johnston counties, at around -5.5%).

For the first time in state history, Democrats are below 30% of registered voters statewide (29.95% as of November 1st). There's more big news about the Democrats in this next section:

As the Democratic registration collapses, Independents are accelerating in growth. This year was no exception. Independents made gains in every county except Harper. 

In 23 counties, Independent growth beat Republican growth (mainly in the metros and western Oklahoma). 

An interesting development to watch will be which county becomes the first for Independents to surpass Democrats. It's already happened -- Independents lead Democrats in the Panhandle's Texas County by 0.31% (18.6% Independent to 18.28% Democratic). Here's the list of the next likely to join:
  • Beaver (0.23% Dem lead)
  • Major (0.11% Dem lead)
  • Woodward (0.4% Dem lead)
  • Washington (0.48% Dem lead)
  • Garfield (1.22% Dem lead)
  • Canadian (2.86% Dem lead)
  • Ellis (3.04% Dem lead)
  • Alfalfa (3.48% Dem lead)
  • Cimarron (4.74% Dem lead)
21.24% of registered voters in Oklahoma are now Independent.

I didn't make a map for the Libertarians (sorry, y'all), because, quite frankly, it just isn't interesting. Their largest increase was +0.11% in Caddo County, while the largest loss was -0.031% in Greer County. Libertarians gained ground ever so slightly in 65 counties, losing fairly miniscule percentages in 12 counties. They now comprise 0.862% of registered voters statewide, up from 0.811% (an increase of +0.51%).

Now, Oklahoma Republicans need to capitalize on this registration advantage and re-elect Governor Kevin Stitt on Tuesday.


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