Israel Update: Government Situation

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

The Israeli elections held on February 10th resulted in Tzipi Livni's Kadima winning a plurality of seats in the Knesset, but Binyamin Netanyahu the presumptive prime minster, as the right wing parties won more seats than the left wing.

Israeli President Shimon Peres gave Netanyahu the official green light to begin forming a governing coalition on February 20th. Initially, Netanyahu voiced his hope to build a broad coalition, with the more left-wing Kadima and Labor joining his government along with right wing parties such as Yisrael Beitenu and Shas. However, Labor said they would not join a Netanyahu or Livni government.

Today, Tzipi Livni rejected Bibi Netanyahu's offer to join his coalition, meaning Netanyahu will have to turn to the nationalistic, right-wing parties to form a government. The parties in a right-wing coalition would be Netanyahu's Likud (27 Knesset Members, or MKs), Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (15 MKs), Shas (11 MKs), United Torah Judaism (5 MKs), National Union (4 MKs), and Jewish Home (3 MKs). To form a governing coalition, Netanyahu must have at least 61 MKs supporting him.

It would appear that Bibi will easily break the 61 mark. However, a recent statement by Rabbi Yosef Shalom Elyashiv could possibly mean that United Torah Judaism will refuse to join a coalition with Yisrael Beiteinu. The latter party has made marriage reform a central part of their demands. Currently, there are no provisions for civil marriage in Israel; the only approved marriages in Israel are those performed under the regulations of a recognized religion, and marriages performed outside of Israel.

Rabbi Elyashiv has said that it is forbidden to compromise in any way regarding civil marriage, and that civil marriage must not be allowed even between non-Jews.

Will this endanger a Netanyahu coalition? Only time will tell.

Latest Israeli Results

Here are the latest results from the Israeli elections as of 4:15pm CST (taken from Arutz Sheva):

Results updated to: 12:15 a.m. (4:15pm CST)

Nationalist/Religious Bloc	Knesset Seats
Likud	25
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home)	15
Ichud Leumi (National Union)	4
Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home)	4
Shas	11
United Torah Judaism	4
Total for Nationalist/Religious Bloc	63
Left-wing Bloc
Kadima	27
Labor	13
Meretz	4
Ra'am Ta'al (Arab party)	3
Balad (Arab party)	2
Hadash (Arab/Jewish party)	2
Total for Left-wing Bloc	54

Initial Reports: Kadima Leads, but Right beats Left

According to initial exit polls and results, Tzipi Livni's Kadima party leads Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud by about 2 mandates (seats). Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is currently being reported as having 14-15 mandates, and Ehud Barak's Labor party is fourth, with about 13.

So far, the exit polls say...

Right-wing parties:

• Likud: 27-28
  
• Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
  
• Shas: 9-10
• National Union: 3
• Jewish Home: 3-4
• United Torah Judaism: 5

Other left-wing parties:

• Kadima: 28-30
  
• Labor: 13
  
• Meretz: 4-5
• Ra'am Ta'al (Arab): 2-4
• Balad (Arab): 2-3
• Hadash (Arab): 4, or none

That gives the right-wing, most likely supporting Netanyahu for Prime Minister, 61-65 mandates, and the left-wing, supporting Livni, about 49-59 seats. However, there are rumors that the Arab parties may not join any coalition, protesting the banning of other Arab parties considered to be "anti-Israel". If so, the left-wing could potentially receive as few as 45 seats.

This gives Netanyahu a very good chance at becoming the next Prime Minister, in spite of Likud coming in second to Kadima.

Updates will be provided when they come in.

Israeli Polls Have Closed

The Israeli polls closed at 10pm Israel time (2pm CST). Results will be forthcoming. See my post here for more information, and a link to live coverage (in English) of the returns.

Editorial on Israeli Race

Here's one reason to hope Benjamin Netanyahu beats Tzipi Livni for Prime Minister in Israel: Haaretz's editorial endorsing Livni.

If Haaretz is against Bibi, that a great reason to support him.

Live Coverage of the Israeli Elections

The polls in Israel will close at 10:00pm local time; 3:00 Oklahoma time. If you want to follow the elections results live, Israel National News' website will have a live broadcast in English (located here).

We hope for a Likud/Bibi Netanyahu victory, but also for a strong showing by other right wing parties such as Yisrael Beiteinu, National Union, Jewish Home, and United Torah Judaism. A strong conservative faction of the Knesset will ensure a strong, conservative Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Israel Update: Elections on Tuesday

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

Tuesday, February 10th, is the national election in Israel. The control of the Knesset, and the next Prime Minister, will be decided in the vote.

Israel has a parliamentary system of elections, more like Great Britain than the United States. For a party to gain seating in the Knesset, they must receive approximately 2% nationally, which would give them two seats. A party that gets anything below that threshold does not receive seating, and is essentially thrown out of the reckoning.

Currently, the parties of Likud, Kadima and Israel Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) are the leading parties; the candidates for Prime Minister are, in order of party listed above, Binyamin Netanyahu, Tzipi Livni, and Avigdor Lieberman.

Below, I've put together a rolling graph of the public poll results since the first of the year.


As you can tell, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party has made tremendous progress, surpassing Ehud Barak and the Labor party, traditionally one of the strongest parties. However, Yisrael Beiteinu is not expected to place higher than third.

Israel Update: 'Status Quo Ante Bellum' in Gaza

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

Things have gotten back to status 'quo ante bellum' in Gaza. That's "as things were before the war" for those not familiar with the Latin phrase. Hamas is still firing rockets, and Israel still hits the terrorist group back with limited air strikes.

• Hamas: RPGs and a bomb kill 1 IDF soldier, wound 3 (1-27). Two rockets and a mortar, none injured (1-28).
  
  
• Israel: Tanks and ground troops enter Gaza in retalitation to bombing (see above), killing up to three terrorists (1-27). Air strike wounds two Hamas terrorists in a car (1-29).

... and that's just the past few days, not the weeks since Operation Cast Lead ended.

In political news:

• The Shas political party backs Bibi Netanyahu (Likud) for Prime Minister.
  
  
• The U.S. Consulate sold file cabinets to a Jerusalem woman three years ago at an auction... with documents classified 'Secret' in them.
  
  
• The brother of Tzipi Livni (Kadima) is campaigning for Bib Netanyahu (Likud). Says the job of PM is "too big for her."
  
  
• Jimmy Carter continues to make a fool of himself and his country. "I’m relieved that he’s been replaced. I think that he probably had the most disastrous term relating to foreign policy of any previous president, [Muskogee Politico: He's one to talk...] and he removed our nation’s reputation as a champion on human rights," Carter said regarding former President George W. Bush.
  

  Regarding the Hamas terrorist group’s firing of rockets into Israel, Carter blames Israel for not opening up the borders and said that Hamas is merely interested in drawing world attention to the plight of Gaza civilians, who are without food and water. Carter claimed that Hamas is not interested in hurting Israelis. As "proof", the former president stated that although hundreds of rockets were fired into Sderot by Hamas between 2007 and June 2008, "only one Israeli was killed in Sderot."

You have now been briefed on the latest from Israel. Again, as I have mentioned before, the best resource I have found for Israeli news is (what I consider the Israeli-version of Fox News) Arutz Sheva.

Israel, Hamas, Self Defense, and Western Hypocrisy

The Israeli Air Force conducted Saturday what experts are calling the most lethal single-day of bombing in 41 years. The IAF struck over 60 targets in about 170 separate attacks in the Gaza Strip, following another heavy day of rocket fire from Hamas.

According to both Arab and Israeli sources, around 200 Hamas terrorists died, with upwards of 400 wounded. Most of the targets were Hamas command posts and training areas.

In a televised address on Saturday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said "On Thursday I made it clear to the residents of Gaza that we are not acting against them. We will do everything possible to prevent a humanitarian crisis. Residents of Gaza – you are not our enemies and we are not fighting against you."

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said in a statement:

"Israeli citizens have been under the threat of daily attack from Gaza for years. Only this week - hundreds of missiles and mortar shells were fired at Israeli civilian communities including the firing of 80 missiles on a single day.

Until now we have shown restraint. But today there is no other option than a military operation. We need to protect our citizens from attack through a military response against the terror infrastructure in Gaza.

This is the translation of our basic right to self defense.

Israel left Gaza in order to create an opportunity for peace. In return, the Hamas terror organization took control of Gaza and is using its citizens as cover while it deliberately targets Israeli communities and denies any chance for peace.

We have tried everything to reach calm without using force. We agreed to a truce through Egypt that was violated by Hamas, which continued to target Israel, hold Gilad Shalit and build up its arms.

Israel continues to act to prevent humanitarian crisis and to minimize harm to Palestinian civilians. Unfortunately, Hamas cynically abuses its own civilian population and their suffering for propaganda purposes. The responsibility for harm to civilians lies with Hamas."

For months, years even, Israel has tolerated constant Kassam and Katyusha rocket and mortar fire from the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and Lebanon. In 2005, Israel forcibly removed thousands of Jewish settlers from the Gaza Strip, and turned the territory over to the Palestinians. The terrorist organization Hamas ended up in control of Gaza, and attacks on Israel have been continued almost daily (excluding a few cease-fires that Hamas ended up breaking). Throughout this whole ordeal, Israel has shown great restraint, endeavoring to minimize civilian casualties while dealing with terrorists, who have a tendency to use human shields.

Even with this history, a history marked with aggression few nations would allow, some in the West still call for a pacifistic response on the part of the victim, Israel. For example, here are a few responses.

Great Britain: Prime Minister Gordon Brown "[is] deeply concerned by continuing missile strikes from Gaza on Israel and by Israel’s response today. Peaceful means are the only way of reaching a lasting solution to the situation in Gaza... I understand the Israeli government’s sense of obligation to its population. Israel needs to meet its humanitarian obligations, act in a way to further the long-term vision of a two-state solution and do everything in its power to avoid civilian casualties."
France: President Nicolas Sarkozy "strongly condemns the irresponsible provocations which led to this situation as well as the disproportionate use of force."
The UN: "The Secretary-General is deeply alarmed by today's heavy violence and bloodshed in Gaza, and the continuation of violence in southern Israel. He appeals for an immediate halt to all violence. While recognizing Israel''s security concerns regarding the continued firing of rockets from Gaza, he firmly reiterates Israel''s obligation to uphold international humanitarian and human rights law and condemns excessive use of force leading to the killing and injuring of civilians."
The EU: "The EU condemns the Israeli bombardments as well as rocket attacks from Gaza. It demands that this stops immediately." Also, "I [Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief] call for an immediate cessation of military actions on both sides. The EU has repeatedly condemned rocket attacks against Israel. The current Israeli strikes are inflicting an unacceptable toll on Palestinian civilians and will only worsen the humanitarian crisis."

Should Israel give up her right to self defense, and sit idly by as her citizens are killed, injured, and displaced by continous rocket fire? Hamas, and other terrorist organizations, has proven time and again that they will not abide by cease-fires or treaties.

Would Great Britain tolerate an Irish terrorist group to bomb Northern Ireland, or a Welsh terrorist organization to shoot rockets into Birmingham? Would France allow a rogue group to fire mortars into Marseille, or Paris without any retaliaton? Would these countries allow attacks such as these to continue, day and night, for years? No.

But, the great nations of the world refuse to give Israel the same rights to self defense that they themselves claim.

I say this; the government and military of Israel has but one goal, and one goal only: to defend, protect, and advance the interests of the Israeli people. What other nations wish Israel to do or not do has no bearing; if the Israeli people are endangered, as they truly are, then let Israel defend herself. Hamas has plagued Israel for long enough; let Israel rid the world of this terrorist cancer.

Likud Takes Solid Lead in Israeli Polling

With the Israeli Knesset elections set for February 10th, 2009, Binyamin Netanyahu and the Likud party have taken a solid lead in polling over Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (Kadima), Ehud Barak (Labor), and other political parties.

For those unfamiliar with the Israeli political process, the Knesset (parliament) has 120 seats. These seats are split proportionally, according to the election results. Vote cast their ballot for a specific party, with the head of that party being that party's nominee for Prime Minister. Parties must break 2% (approximately two seats) to earn a seat in the Knesset. Also, the ruling party must have a at least 61 seats to form a government. As the likelihood of getting so many seats is extremely slim, this leads to coalition building among the parties. (That's the basic gist, and I hope I got it right. Parliamentary forms of government can get very confusing...)

I will proceed to post the average of four of the latest polls for the Knesset elections, with the current seats held by that party in parentheses.

• Likud: 34.3 seats (12)
• Kadima: 25.5 seats (29)
• Shas: 11.3 seats (12)
• Arab parties: 10.3 seats (10)
• Yisrael Beteinu: 9.3 seats (11)
• Labor: 8.3 seats (19)
• Meretz: 8 seats (5)
• United Torah Judaism: 6.5 seats (6)
• Jewish Home: 5.3 seats (9)
• Green: 1.8 seats (0) *
• Retirees Party: 0 seats (7) *

* - do not break the 2% threshold for representation

Kadima is facing a drop of 4-5 seats, as Likud looks to gain over 20 seats. The demise of Labor leaves the party staring at a potential loss of over 10 seats, and putting the former second-largest party (2006) fighting for 5th or 6th.

As these now stand, Bibi Netanyahu is likely to be Israel's next Prime Minister, with the Likud coalition gathering enough seats to have a stable government in the Knesset.

This blog fully endorses Bibi Netanyahu and Likud. We hope that they come out with a resounding victory.

Livni to Call for Elections

On the Israeli political front...

Kadima Party* head (and interim Prime Minister) Tzipi Livni has been unable to form a new government coalition, and will call for early elections. If she had been able to form a new coalition within six weeks of PM Ehud Olmert's resignation in September, she could have avoided national elections.

Currently, Likud Party** chairman, Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is heavily favored to win the next national elections.

As of now, the Kadima coalition holds a majority in the Knesset, Israel's legislative body; however, Likud is set to come roaring back in the next election.

The national elections will probably be held in January of February.

My thoughts? Personally, I would like to see Bibi become PM again; Olmert has been a disaster.

*The Kadima party is a center-left/centrist party in Israel.
**The Likud party is a center-right/right-wing party in Israel.