Israel Update: Government Situation

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

The Israeli elections held on February 10th resulted in Tzipi Livni's Kadima winning a plurality of seats in the Knesset, but Binyamin Netanyahu the presumptive prime minster, as the right wing parties won more seats than the left wing.

Israeli President Shimon Peres gave Netanyahu the official green light to begin forming a governing coalition on February 20th. Initially, Netanyahu voiced his hope to build a broad coalition, with the more left-wing Kadima and Labor joining his government along with right wing parties such as Yisrael Beitenu and Shas. However, Labor said they would not join a Netanyahu or Livni government.

Today, Tzipi Livni rejected Bibi Netanyahu's offer to join his coalition, meaning Netanyahu will have to turn to the nationalistic, right-wing parties to form a government. The parties in a right-wing coalition would be Netanyahu's Likud (27 Knesset Members, or MKs), Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu (15 MKs), Shas (11 MKs), United Torah Judaism (5 MKs), National Union (4 MKs), and Jewish Home (3 MKs). To form a governing coalition, Netanyahu must have at least 61 MKs supporting him.

It would appear that Bibi will easily break the 61 mark. However, a recent statement by Rabbi Yosef Shalom Elyashiv could possibly mean that United Torah Judaism will refuse to join a coalition with Yisrael Beiteinu. The latter party has made marriage reform a central part of their demands. Currently, there are no provisions for civil marriage in Israel; the only approved marriages in Israel are those performed under the regulations of a recognized religion, and marriages performed outside of Israel.

Rabbi Elyashiv has said that it is forbidden to compromise in any way regarding civil marriage, and that civil marriage must not be allowed even between non-Jews.

Will this endanger a Netanyahu coalition? Only time will tell.

Latest Israeli Results

Here are the latest results from the Israeli elections as of 4:15pm CST (taken from Arutz Sheva):

Results updated to: 12:15 a.m. (4:15pm CST)

Nationalist/Religious Bloc	Knesset Seats
Likud	25
Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Is Our Home)	15
Ichud Leumi (National Union)	4
Bayit Yehudi (Jewish Home)	4
Shas	11
United Torah Judaism	4
Total for Nationalist/Religious Bloc	63
Left-wing Bloc
Kadima	27
Labor	13
Meretz	4
Ra'am Ta'al (Arab party)	3
Balad (Arab party)	2
Hadash (Arab/Jewish party)	2
Total for Left-wing Bloc	54

Initial Reports: Kadima Leads, but Right beats Left

According to initial exit polls and results, Tzipi Livni's Kadima party leads Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud by about 2 mandates (seats). Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu is currently being reported as having 14-15 mandates, and Ehud Barak's Labor party is fourth, with about 13.

So far, the exit polls say...

Right-wing parties:

• Likud: 27-28
  
• Yisrael Beiteinu: 14-15
  
• Shas: 9-10
• National Union: 3
• Jewish Home: 3-4
• United Torah Judaism: 5

Other left-wing parties:

• Kadima: 28-30
  
• Labor: 13
  
• Meretz: 4-5
• Ra'am Ta'al (Arab): 2-4
• Balad (Arab): 2-3
• Hadash (Arab): 4, or none

That gives the right-wing, most likely supporting Netanyahu for Prime Minister, 61-65 mandates, and the left-wing, supporting Livni, about 49-59 seats. However, there are rumors that the Arab parties may not join any coalition, protesting the banning of other Arab parties considered to be "anti-Israel". If so, the left-wing could potentially receive as few as 45 seats.

This gives Netanyahu a very good chance at becoming the next Prime Minister, in spite of Likud coming in second to Kadima.

Updates will be provided when they come in.

Israeli Polls Have Closed

The Israeli polls closed at 10pm Israel time (2pm CST). Results will be forthcoming. See my post here for more information, and a link to live coverage (in English) of the returns.

Editorial on Israeli Race

Here's one reason to hope Benjamin Netanyahu beats Tzipi Livni for Prime Minister in Israel: Haaretz's editorial endorsing Livni.

If Haaretz is against Bibi, that a great reason to support him.

Live Coverage of the Israeli Elections

The polls in Israel will close at 10:00pm local time; 3:00 Oklahoma time. If you want to follow the elections results live, Israel National News' website will have a live broadcast in English (located here).

We hope for a Likud/Bibi Netanyahu victory, but also for a strong showing by other right wing parties such as Yisrael Beiteinu, National Union, Jewish Home, and United Torah Judaism. A strong conservative faction of the Knesset will ensure a strong, conservative Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Israel Update: Elections on Tuesday

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

Tuesday, February 10th, is the national election in Israel. The control of the Knesset, and the next Prime Minister, will be decided in the vote.

Israel has a parliamentary system of elections, more like Great Britain than the United States. For a party to gain seating in the Knesset, they must receive approximately 2% nationally, which would give them two seats. A party that gets anything below that threshold does not receive seating, and is essentially thrown out of the reckoning.

Currently, the parties of Likud, Kadima and Israel Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) are the leading parties; the candidates for Prime Minister are, in order of party listed above, Binyamin Netanyahu, Tzipi Livni, and Avigdor Lieberman.

Below, I've put together a rolling graph of the public poll results since the first of the year.


As you can tell, Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party has made tremendous progress, surpassing Ehud Barak and the Labor party, traditionally one of the strongest parties. However, Yisrael Beiteinu is not expected to place higher than third.

Israel Update: 'Status Quo Ante Bellum' in Gaza

The Muskogee Politico's Israel Update

Things have gotten back to status 'quo ante bellum' in Gaza. That's "as things were before the war" for those not familiar with the Latin phrase. Hamas is still firing rockets, and Israel still hits the terrorist group back with limited air strikes.

• Hamas: RPGs and a bomb kill 1 IDF soldier, wound 3 (1-27). Two rockets and a mortar, none injured (1-28).
  
  
• Israel: Tanks and ground troops enter Gaza in retalitation to bombing (see above), killing up to three terrorists (1-27). Air strike wounds two Hamas terrorists in a car (1-29).

... and that's just the past few days, not the weeks since Operation Cast Lead ended.

In political news:

• The Shas political party backs Bibi Netanyahu (Likud) for Prime Minister.
  
  
• The U.S. Consulate sold file cabinets to a Jerusalem woman three years ago at an auction... with documents classified 'Secret' in them.
  
  
• The brother of Tzipi Livni (Kadima) is campaigning for Bib Netanyahu (Likud). Says the job of PM is "too big for her."
  
  
• Jimmy Carter continues to make a fool of himself and his country. "I’m relieved that he’s been replaced. I think that he probably had the most disastrous term relating to foreign policy of any previous president, [Muskogee Politico: He's one to talk...] and he removed our nation’s reputation as a champion on human rights," Carter said regarding former President George W. Bush.
  

  Regarding the Hamas terrorist group’s firing of rockets into Israel, Carter blames Israel for not opening up the borders and said that Hamas is merely interested in drawing world attention to the plight of Gaza civilians, who are without food and water. Carter claimed that Hamas is not interested in hurting Israelis. As "proof", the former president stated that although hundreds of rockets were fired into Sderot by Hamas between 2007 and June 2008, "only one Israeli was killed in Sderot."

You have now been briefed on the latest from Israel. Again, as I have mentioned before, the best resource I have found for Israeli news is (what I consider the Israeli-version of Fox News) Arutz Sheva.

Likud Takes Solid Lead in Israeli Polling

With the Israeli Knesset elections set for February 10th, 2009, Binyamin Netanyahu and the Likud party have taken a solid lead in polling over Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (Kadima), Ehud Barak (Labor), and other political parties.

For those unfamiliar with the Israeli political process, the Knesset (parliament) has 120 seats. These seats are split proportionally, according to the election results. Vote cast their ballot for a specific party, with the head of that party being that party's nominee for Prime Minister. Parties must break 2% (approximately two seats) to earn a seat in the Knesset. Also, the ruling party must have a at least 61 seats to form a government. As the likelihood of getting so many seats is extremely slim, this leads to coalition building among the parties. (That's the basic gist, and I hope I got it right. Parliamentary forms of government can get very confusing...)

I will proceed to post the average of four of the latest polls for the Knesset elections, with the current seats held by that party in parentheses.

• Likud: 34.3 seats (12)
• Kadima: 25.5 seats (29)
• Shas: 11.3 seats (12)
• Arab parties: 10.3 seats (10)
• Yisrael Beteinu: 9.3 seats (11)
• Labor: 8.3 seats (19)
• Meretz: 8 seats (5)
• United Torah Judaism: 6.5 seats (6)
• Jewish Home: 5.3 seats (9)
• Green: 1.8 seats (0) *
• Retirees Party: 0 seats (7) *

* - do not break the 2% threshold for representation

Kadima is facing a drop of 4-5 seats, as Likud looks to gain over 20 seats. The demise of Labor leaves the party staring at a potential loss of over 10 seats, and putting the former second-largest party (2006) fighting for 5th or 6th.

As these now stand, Bibi Netanyahu is likely to be Israel's next Prime Minister, with the Likud coalition gathering enough seats to have a stable government in the Knesset.

This blog fully endorses Bibi Netanyahu and Likud. We hope that they come out with a resounding victory.

Livni to Call for Elections

On the Israeli political front...

Kadima Party* head (and interim Prime Minister) Tzipi Livni has been unable to form a new government coalition, and will call for early elections. If she had been able to form a new coalition within six weeks of PM Ehud Olmert's resignation in September, she could have avoided national elections.

Currently, Likud Party** chairman, Binyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is heavily favored to win the next national elections.

As of now, the Kadima coalition holds a majority in the Knesset, Israel's legislative body; however, Likud is set to come roaring back in the next election.

The national elections will probably be held in January of February.

My thoughts? Personally, I would like to see Bibi become PM again; Olmert has been a disaster.

*The Kadima party is a center-left/centrist party in Israel.
**The Likud party is a center-right/right-wing party in Israel.