Friday, October 21, 2016

Republican Ratings for all State House and Senate Districts

I've developed a rating system to determine how Republican each state house and state senate district is. The formula is comprised of the three elements: Mitt Romney's percentage in the 2012 presidential election (federal-level), Mary Fallin's performance in the 2014 gubernatorial election (state-level), and Republican voter registration (local-level).

Have a look at each full list. I included which members are leaving office (not seeking reelection, defeated in primaries, or term limited), as well as which districts have general election races.

On Monday (Lord willing) I'll post what I'm calling the Conservative Performance Index, where we'll examine each legislator's conservative score (an average of two different conservative rating systems) and compare it to their district's Republican rating.

Up first, State House:

At 70.6%, the most Republican district is HD61, which is comprised of the Panhandle and the far northwestern part of the state. The next three most Republican districts (HD67 - 69.7%, HD80 - 69.6%, HD69 - 69.1%) are all in south Tulsa and Broken Arrow, and #5 goes to HD41 at 68.7% (a gerrymandered district running from Enid to the edge of OKC).

The five least Republican districts are HD73 in  north Tulsa (10.0%), HD97 (17.0%) and HD99 (22.9%) in Oklahoma City, HD72 (29.3%) in north Tulsa, and 88 (31.5%) in Oklahoma City.

The average rating for all House seats is 51.9%. For Republican-held seats, it's 57.1%, and for Democrat-held seats the average is 40.4%.

The five most Republican seats held by Democrats are Wagoner County's HD12 at 54.9% (an open seat), HD8 (northeast) and HD85 (David Dank's old seat, the Democrats surprise special election win) at 53.9%, HD6 (northeast corner), and HD7 (far northeast corner).

The six least Republican seats held by Republicans are HD62 (41.8%) and HD64 (42.2%) in Lawton, Muskogee's HD14 and southeast Oklahoma's HD22 (43.4%), and Pontotoc County's HD25 and Sequoyah County's HD2 (45.4%).

Now, let's look at the State Senate:

The most Republican district is again in far northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle - SD27 at 69.1%. Next are SD25 (67.3%) in south Tulsa, SD22 (66.2%) in northwest OKC, SD41 (65.0%) in the Edmond area, and SD33 (64.1%) in Broken Arrow.

The five least Republican districts are SD11 in  north Tulsa (17.7%), SD48 (18.3%) and SD46 (32.1%) in Oklahoma City, SD9 (38.2%) in Muskogee and Cherokee counties, and SD16 (40.1%) in Cleveland County.

The average rating for all Senate seats is 52.1%. For Republican-held seats, it's 55.3%, and for Democrat-held seats it's 38.3%.

The three most Republican seats held by Democrats are SD34 (the Brogdon/Brinkley seat, also a special election stunner) at 59.3%, SD1 (47.6%), and SD13 (46.6%).

The five least Republican seats held by Republicans are all in 'Little Dixie' -SD5 (41.1%), SD7 (41.3%), SD8 (41.4%), SD6 (44.3%), and SD4 (44.4%). I believe all five senators are the first Republicans ever elected in their seat.

If you'd like to see maps to show where all the different districts are, go here for State House maps and here for State Senate maps.

1 comment:

  1. Jamison, I wanted to mention a slight error on your part: The Sherrer seat (HD-8, east-southeast of Claremore) is open this year, as Sherrer was term limited. Thought I would note that for this.


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