Tuesday, July 29, 2014

NYT/CBS Poll: Fallin up 9%, Lankford and Inhofe lead by 20%+

A new CBS/New York Times/YouGov poll finds Oklahoma's top Republican candidates all leading their Democratic opponents by substantial margins, particularly in the Senate races. U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R) holds a 24-point lead over Matt Silverstein (D), while James Lankford (R) leads Democratic runoff candidates Connie Johnson (D) and Jim Rogers (D) by 23% and 27%, respectively.

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In the gubernatorial race, Governor Mary Fallin (R) is leading Joe Dorman (D) 49%-40% (leaners included). The crosstabs for this race are particularly interesting -- I hope to go into them in more detail in another post soon.

View the full article and crosstabs for this national poll here.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Dutcher: Hofmeister, OK GOP voters support educational choice

OCPA Senior Vice-President and blogger Brandon Dutcher wrote a recent column in the Edmond Sun addressing a recent statewide survey that finds Oklahoma Republican voters strongly support educational choice. From Dutcher's blog:
Interestingly, the Tarrance survey found that those voters backing Joy Hofmeister for state school superintendent favor educational choice by a wide margin (69 percent favor, while only 25 percent oppose).

Hofmeister supporters favor the Lindsey Nicole Henry Scholarships (72 percent to 20 percent), the Equal Opportunity tax-credit scholarships (68 percent to 21 percent), and Education Savings Accounts (57 percent to 33 percent). At a July 17 meeting of the Muskogee County Republicans and Conservatives Club, Hofmeister told Jamison Faught, editor of MuskogeePolitico.com, that she supports all three of those educational-choice mechanisms.
Read the rest of his column here.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

Dr. Coburn to hold final town hall meetings as Senator

Dr. Coburn to Hold Final U.S. Senate Town Hall Meetings in Oklahoma

(July 24th, 2014, Washington, D.C.) – U.S. Senator Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) announced today he will hold a final series of town hall meetings in the state before resigning from the U.S. Senate at the end of the current Congress.

“One of the highlights of serving as a U.S. Senator for Oklahoma is the ability to travel the state to talk to fellow Oklahomans and hear what they think about the issues we face as a nation,” Coburn said.  “It is always encouraging and inspiring to me to talk with friends and neighbors across the state.  Our people make this such a special place to live.  So many good ideas and initiatives that my office has worked on over the years have resulted from conversations at these town hall meetings.”

The town hall meetings will take place the first two full weeks in August.

Coburn concluded, “As I prepare to hold my final series of town hall meetings, I am reminded how grateful I am to the people of Oklahoma who entrusted me to serve them in Washington.  I am proud and honored to be from Oklahoma, and my hope is this series of meetings will be an opportunity to reflect on what we have accomplished together over the last decade and a chance look to the future to continue working to make sure America remains the greatest nation in the world.”

Monday, August 4, 2014

Oklahoma City Town Hall Meeting
Monday, August 4, 2014, 6:00 p.m.
Oklahoma City Community College
Visual and Performing Arts Center Theater
7777 S. May Avenue, Oklahoma City, OK  73159

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Altus Town Hall Meeting
Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 10:00 a.m.
Western Oklahoma State College
Herschal H. Crow Fine Arts Auditorium
2801 N. Main Street, Altus, OK  73521

Lawton Town Hall Meeting
Tuesday, August 5, 2014, 1:00 p.m.
Cameron University
CETES Conference Center, Building 20
2800 W. Gore Blvd., Lawton, OK  73505

Monday, August 11, 2014

Enid Town Hall Meeting
Monday, August 11, 2014, 3:00 p.m.
Enid Convention Hall
301 S. Independence, Enid, OK  73701

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Tulsa Town Hall Meeting
Wednesday, August 13, 2014, 6:00 p.m.
Tulsa Community College - Southeast Campus
VanTrease PACE
10300 E. 81st Street, Tulsa, OK  74133

Friday, July 18, 2014

Poll shocker: Fallin 45%, Dorman 40%

 In a stunner of a poll, nationally respected pollster Scott Rasmussen finds Oklahoma's incumbent Republican Governor Mary Fallin leading Democratic nominee Joe Dorman by just 5%.

Republican Mary Fallin is in a surprisingly close contest for reelection in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the 2014 gubernatorial race in Oklahoma.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Oklahoma Voters finds Fallin with 45% support to Democratic state Representative Joe Dorman’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) favor some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Oklahoma is rated Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports 2014 Gubernatorial Scorecard.

Fallin, who previously served as lieutenant governor and a member of Congress, was elected governor in 2010 with 60% of the vote. She has long been expected to easily win reelection, but a poll released earlier this week by the Tulsa World shows Fallin’s favorables at a new low, even among her fellow Republicans.

The incumbent now has the support of 64% of Oklahoma Republicans, while 70% of the state’s Democrats favor Dorman. Fallin leads by seven points among voters not affiliated with either major party.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of all voters in the state now approve of the job Fallin is doing as governor, while 48% disapprove. This includes 20% who Strongly Approve and 28% who Strongly Disapprove.

Fallin is now viewed Very Favorably by 25% of Oklahoma voters and Very Unfavorably by 29%. For Dorman, Very Favorables are 11% and Very Unfavorables nine percent (9%). His biggest challenge at this point is name recognition: 35% of Oklahoma voters say they have never heard of him.

That’s one reason why at this point in an election cycle, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Oklahoma was conducted on July 15-16, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Read the rest here.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Map: Democrat State Superintendent Primary Results

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While I was working on the Democrat's Senate primary map, I decided to also do their State Superintendent primary. Since, the GOP side was unexpectedly lopsided (Joy Hofmeister won every county, and incumbent superintendent Janet Barresi came in third out of three candidates), I was curious to see the other side.

John Cox came out on top with 68,889 votes, Freda Deskin was a close second with 64,135, while Jack Herron had 22,335 and Ivan Holmes got 12,504. Cox and Deskin are now in a runoff, the winner of which will face Hofmeister in the general election.

Cox received over 70% of the vote in some far eastern counties, while Deskin ran in the upper 40s and low 50s in the OKC and Tulsa metros.

Oklahoma Democrat Senate Primary Map

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Just for fun, I threw together this map of the Democrat's primary, in which State Sen. Connie Johnson and perennial candidate Jim Rogers advanced to the runoff. The winner of that August 26th contest will be the Democratic nominee facing James Lankford in the general election.

Johnson received 71,462 votes to Rogers' 57,598 and Hayes' 33,943. Johnson's lead (13,864) came almost entirely from Oklahoma County (13,389 lead over Rogers).

The Oklahoma Democratic Party is in pretty sad shape when a sitting state senator can barely edge out a perennial candidate who does little-to-no campaigning.

Speaking of the ODP's "last best hope", the Oklahoman recently had a good article on Jim Rogers, which you can read here.

Hofmeister speaking in Muskogee on Thursday

From the Muskogee County GOP:

The Muskogee County Republicans & Conservatives Club will be holding their July meeting on Thursday, July 17th in the Muskogee Public Library's southeast meeting room starting at 7:00pm. Guest speaker for this event will be Joy Hofmeister, the Republican nominee for State Superintendent of Education. Come learn more about Joy's vision for education in Oklahoma, and visit with local Republicans and conservatives.