2nd District Candidate Ranking: 3rd Edition

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-1st Quarter FEC Reports

With the close of the 2010 1st Quarter FEC reports, it's once again time for the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. This is the third in the GOP candidate ranking series. The original ranking can be viewed here, with the second located here. This is not to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog - merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the latest installment of the 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Daniel Edmonds (prev. 2nd)


I see Daniel Edmonds as having taken the top spot this past quarter.

Public Policy Polling conducted a poll of the 2nd District race, and Edmonds came out as the best Republican when compared to incumbent Congressman Dan Boren (D). He was 16 points down to Boren, as opposed to 20 points (Thompson), 22 points (Houchen), and 27 points (Arnett). You can see more information on that poll here.

Edmonds still seems to be the candidate that can have the broadest appeal to conservative Democrats - a must for winning in this heavily Democratic district.

If this ranking was based solely on raising money, Edmonds would not be ranked first. His fundraising has been poor, a factor that has affected all candidates in this race (except Boren).

However, Edmonds looks to be getting the most bang for his buck; his campaign appears to be the most frugal and effective. He set the standard among his competitors for campaign literature, sparking the rest to get much more professional materials.

In my discussions with Republicans across the district, Edmonds gets the broadest support. That wasn't the case earlier in the campaign, but it seems to be growing steadily now, as activists and voters get to know the candidates.

Edmonds still needs to find a way to raise funds. If he can be in the lead with what little he has now, he could do much better with a good war-chest.


2. Howard Houchen (prev. 1st)

Howard Houchen, after a quick start, has seemed to cool among the Republican electorate.

The latest FEC reports show that Houchen raised slightly over $20,000 in the last quarter - a modest, but respectable sum for a challenger in circumstances like these. His showing was the highest of the Republican challengers to this point. He currently has $9,309 cash on hand - $4,000 more than the nearest Republican competitor.

Houchen is a very aggressive candidate, which will give some voters hesitation, while appealing to others. The Ron Paul/libertarian community seems to be rallying around Houchen in particular, which again, may alienate some people.

He has shown what I find to be a fairly minor lapse in judgment by joining any and every group out there that asks him to (such as Bring Home the Politicians, which aims to hold Congress from every state capitol via teleconference, as opposed to physically meeting in Washington at the Capitol). I find the group's idea to be a bad one, for many reasons.

He's also doing a bit of negative campaigning (in relation to Dan Boren) that I don't care for. It's one thing to attack a person's record, but outlandish caricatures are out of taste, in my opinion. One of the things I hear regularly about Howard is that he consistently goes over the time allotted to him to speak at meetings - something that several other candidates also do.

On the other hand, Houchen is having the most success of the GOP candidates in raising money, even though he does seem to be burning through it pretty fast. He has run some radio ads, as well as some recent cable TV ads. It's still probably too early for any of that to be effective, and the actual ads themselves aren't the best, design-wise. But, he is the only candidate to have done either at this point.

Houchen needs to appeal to a broader group of voters, and find a way to not alienate potential supporters. He is still very much in the running for the lead. This race will remain fluid until someone emerges as the clear leader.

3. Charles Thompson (prev. 3rd)

Charles Thompson continues to make moves, although he does not advance in this ranking. Thompson put his toe in the water back in June, dropped out a week later, and decided to get back in sometime in early September.

He filed a report with the FEC this past quarter, reporting about $15,000 raised (although almost $10,000 was in-kind donations). I do have questions about his report - some items may not follow FEC rules.

Thompson does seem to be having the most success at generating volunteers. His military background is attractive to many voters.

However, Thompson has a tendency to trot out ideas that are... ill-advised. For instance, this one on constituent contact. He has called for, in campaign emails, the banning of Islam in the United States, as well as mandating that former Representatives live in their district for the same amount of time they represented the district - in order to live under the laws they passed. As with Houchen, Charles has a hard time keeping to time limits while speaking.

If Thompson can start to raise funds, as well as keep from making more of these mistakes, he can really start to make some waves in this race.


4. Dan Arnett (prev. 4th)

Although Dan Arnett had some influence on this race at the very beginning (I see him as one of the reasons that Congressman Boren actually held town halls), I see his impact dwindling.

Arnett has transferred from law school in Pennsylvania to the University of Tulsa, which has helped him to be more visible across the district. However, folks that I have talked with aren't sold on supporting him with the three aforementioned candidates in the race. I don't see his support base growing in the way it is for the other candidates.

Of the Republican candidates at the time, he performed the worst in the PPP poll that took place at the end of February. As with Houchen and Thompson, Arnett has trouble staying within time limits while speaking, sometimes even speaking for twice as long as he was given.

Arnett is going to have a difficult time convincing voters to join his camp, especially since he isn't raising money or generating as much interest as the other candidates. With some 40 days left until the filing period begins, Arnett has to either make some moves, or make some tough decisions.

5. Miki Booth (prev. not on list)

Miki Booth originally entered the race as an Independent, but decided to switch to Republican in early April. The fact that she took 7-8% of the vote as an Independent in the PPP poll probably had an impact on her decision.

Booth is most well-known for her "Birther" stance. Her position on other issues always takes second place to talking about President Obama's birth certificate, or lack thereof.

She will not be an impact on this race, and will only take single digits of the vote in July.



And that is the 3rd edition of the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. Keep an eye here for the latest news and developments for this race.

2nd District Candidate Ranking: Post 4Q FEC

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-4th Quarter FEC Reports

After the close of the 2009 3rd Quarter FEC reports, I issued my first 2nd District Candidate Ranking. The ranking is to be updated periodically. After the filing of the recent 4th Quarter reports, the ranking needed to be brought back up-to-date. None of this is to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog, merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the latest installment of the 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Howard Houchen (prev. 1st)

I still view Howard Houchen as the "frontrunner" among the current Republican candidates.

The latest FEC reports show that Houchen has raised $19,416 from individuals and $250 from PACs (more on that), and $5,866 in in-kind candidate contributions. He currently has $3,541 cash on hand. Houchen has been in the race the longest, having first announced in early May.

Houchen is a very aggressive and enthusiastic candidate, which can, has, and will be a drawback for some voters, while appealing to others. The Ron Paul/libertarian community seems to be rallying around Houchen, which again, may alienate some people.

Houchen does appear to have a weakness for joining any and every group out there that asks him to (such as Bring Home the Politicians, which aims to hold Congress from every state capitol via teleconference, as opposed to physically meeting in Washington at the Capitol), and I have noticed some strange stuff on his ethics reports - not illegal goings-on, per se, but just odd things (for instance, a PAC contribution was listed under 'Party Contributions' instead of the PAC category*).

That said, Houchen is having more success in raising money, even though he is spending most of it. He has also run some radio ads, and continues to nab interviews on various radio talk shows across Oklahoma. At this point in the game, advantage still Houchen.

* - UPDATE: the Houchen campaign contacted us, and said that the problem was on the FEC side of things, and that they have contacted the FEC numerous times to get it reported correctly.

2. Daniel Edmonds (prev. 2nd)

Daniel Edmonds still remains in second place.

Edmonds has grown as a candidate, and continues to improve as the campaign progresses. While all the candidates hold the same basic positions, Edmonds seems to be the candidate that can have the broadest appeal.

However, as with all of these candidates, Edmonds has difficulty raising funds. So far in the campaign, he has raised just $2,699 from individuals (and $9,382 in in-kind contributions from the candidate). At the close of 2009, he reported $2,707 cash on hand.

Despite his lower fundraising totals, Edmonds led the way in the opening months of the campaign when it came to campaign literature. His material was professional-looking and high quality, while the other candidates' fliers were not as profession. He clearly has a better understanding than the other candidates of what political literature should entail.

If Edmonds wants to jump into the lead, and break away from the pack, he will need to start showing much better fundraising reports.

3. Charles Thompson (prev. 4th)

Charles Thompson has moved up in our ranking, the only change so far. Thompson put his toe in the water back in June, dropped out a week later, and decided to get back in sometime in early September.

Thompson still hasn't officially filed his candidacy with the FEC, which means that he must not have raised or spent $5,000. He must be nearing that level, though, as he has attended meetings and parades across the district and launched a website.

He hasn't been in the race long enough to attract much support, but he does seem to be gaining volunteers at a faster pace than the other candidates. he does have a few ideas that are a little loony, such as this ill-advised one on constituent contact.

If Thompson can start to raise money (and file with the FEC, like he needs to do soon), he might begin to impact the race on a greater level.

4. Dan Arnett (prev. 3rd)

Dan Arnett has dropped to fourth place in our ranking, although in some aspects he has had more influence on this race than anyone else.

I see Arnett as being one of the biggest reasons that Congressman Dan Boren actually held town halls. When Arnett announced, and held town hall meetings of his own in front of each of Boren's congressional offices, he essentially called Boren out, and received media coverage in the process.

Since Arnett has been attending law school in Philadelphia for much of the campaign, he has been unable to be on the campaign trail. This has hurt his candidacy, especially since two new candidates have joined the race, and been very visible at GOP meetings across the area. Arnett has since transferred to the University of Tulsa, which will help him to appear at more events in the 2nd District.

He has raised $5,909 (of which $4,579 is in-kinds contributions) thus far in the campaign. However, Arnett is the only candidate in the race (including Dan Boren) that is carrying debt - to the tune of $6,467.*

Arnett is going to need to show that he can raise money and generate some grassroots interest if he wants to get anywhere this race.

* - UPDATE: "The Dan Arnett 2010 campaign decided, with the blessing and consultation of the Federal Election Commission, to list gas and travel expenditures from the start as loans to the campaign rather than In-Kind Donations. This allows the campaign committee to have a more realistic view of what has been donated as a service, such as an in-kind donation, and what may need to be repaid in the future, like a volunteer's fuel and toll booth costs. According to the FEC, loans may be, at the request of the lender, converted into a donation. Donations, however, may never be converted into a loan. This is why those costs are initially recorded as a loan. Simply stated, receipts collected from volunteers for legitimate travel expenses are recorded initially as a loan to the campaign but may, at the volunteer’s request be recorded as an in-kind donation. This is subject to the donation limits set by the FEC and a volunteer may not make an in-kind donation beyond what they could make as a standard donation. Win or lose, the campaign would like to keep track of costs that, under the FEC’s rules and regulations, are reimbursable so that donors and volunteers may have some of their money returned to them if there is a positive balance on the books at the end of the election process."

2nd District Candidate Ranking: Post 3Q FEC

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-3rd Quarter FEC Reports

I have decided to periodically issue a ranking of the 2010 Republican candidates for the 2nd District Congressional seat, based on how I see the race shaping up. None of this is to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog, merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the very first 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Howard Houchen

Currently, I see Howard Houchen as the "frontrunner", and the candidate to beat on the Republican side.

FEC reports show that Houchen has raised more money than the other candidates, and currently has around $8000 cash on hand (the next closest candidate has about $2000). Houchen has been in the race the longest, first announcing in early May.

Houchen is a candidate with a very aggressive personality, which can (and will) turn off some voters, but will appeal to others. One specific group that is supporting Houchen is the Ron Paul/libertarian wing of the GOP. Whether he can get enough support from them, financially and/or volunteering, to win remains to be seen.

At this point in the game, I view Howard Houchen as the leader.

2. Daniel Edmonds

I place Daniel Edmonds in second place for a variety of reasons.

Edmonds is the newest of the "big three" candidates, and as such had a fairly low fundraising total in the 3rd Quarter, raising $1990 from individuals (and $4941 in in-kind donations from the candidate).

When it comes to campaign material, Edmonds is definitely in first place, however. His fliers are very professional-looking and high quality, while most of the other candidates' handouts look cheap and home-printed in comparison.

Both Edmonds and Houchen have been getting around to GOP meetings in the district. This next quarter will be very interesting to watch - I see Edmonds having a chance to knock Houchen out of first place if he can have a good fundraising drive and begin to show more support among the party faithful.

3. Dan Arnett

Dan Arnett is in third place, although in some aspects he has had more influence on this race than anyone else.

I see Arnett as being one of the biggest reasons that Congressman Dan Boren actually held town halls. When Arnett announced, and held town hall meetings of his own in front of each of Boren's congressional offices, he essentially called Boren out, and received media coverage in the process.

Arnett has been attending law school in Philadelphia (and working in Oklahoma City), which has greatly hampered his ability to campaign. He will be transferring to the University of Tulsa soon, which will enable him to devote more time to the race. The next few months will be crucial for Arnett, as he will need to show that he can compete with the other candidates.

4. Charles Thompson

In fourth place we have Charles Thompson. Thompson initially got in the race in June, but dropped out a week later. He decided to get back in sometime in early September.

Thompson has yet to officially file his candidacy with the FEC. He has attended a few meetings in the district, and launched a website.

He hasn't been in the race long enough to attract much support, and it remains to be seen how much he will impact (or how long he will stay in) the race. Some of his ideas are somewhat peculiar, such as this one on constituent contact.