Monday, August 14, 2017

2017 Republican District Ratings for Oklahoma Legislature

Here's the 2017 update to my Republican District Ratings, the 2016 version of which can be viewed here.

This rating system is to determine how "Republican" each state house and state senate district is. The formula is comprised of three elements: federal-level (most recent Republican presidential nominee's in-district vote percentage), state-level (most recent Republican gubernatorial nominee's in-district vote percentage), and local-level (in-district voter registration).

If a district might be rated 50.0, that does not mean the Democrat rating would also be 50.0, as I didn't split the remaining portion up between Democrat, Libertarian and Independent. This system simply rates on "Republican-ness". Perhaps another way of putting it is this: a generic Republican candidate should be able to get no less than the RDR in his district.

Have a look at each full list. Given the massive turnover last year, I marked which members are freshmen (i.e. elected in 2016). I'll post the 2017 Conservative Performance Index soon, where we'll examine each legislator's conservative score (an average of two different conservative rating systems) and compare it to their district's Republican rating.

Up first, State House:


Northwest Oklahoma has the top three Republican district; HD61 maintained top-status with 71.0%, while HD59 (69.8%) and HD58 (69.1%) leapfrogged from 6th and 7th place last year. Broken Arrow's HD80 comes in fourth with 68.2%, and #5 goes to HD41 (a gerrymandered district running from Enid to the edge of OKC) with 67.3% .

The five least Republican districts are HD73 in north Tulsa (10.3%), HD99 (16.6%) and HD97 (22.9%) in Oklahoma City, OKC's HD88 (27.9%), and HD72 (29.7%) in north Tulsa.

The average rating for all House seats is up 0.3 points to 52.2%. For Republican-held seats, it actually fell overall by 0.4 points to 56.7%, while Democrat-held seats also fell 0.5 points to an average of 40.4%.

The five most Republican seats held by Democrats are HD6 (56.0%) in the northeast, recent special-election snag HD75 (54.3%) in Tulsa, HD7 (51.1%) in the far northeast corner, OKC's HD85 (49.4%; a 2015 special-election steal), and HD86 (48.5%) in Adair County.

The six least Republican seats held by Republicans are HD13 (39.5%) in Muskogee and McIntosh counties, HD62 (41.8%) and HD64 (42.3%) in Lawton, HD71 (43.7%) in Tulsa, and HD19 (44.5%) in the southeast.


Now, let's look at the State Senate:


The most Republican district is again in far northwest Oklahoma and the Panhandle - SD27 at 69.5%. Next are SD25 (65.8%) in south Tulsa, SD19 (63.8%) in the Enid area, SD22 (63.6%) in northwest OKC, SD29 (62.7%) around Bartlesville.

The five least Republican districts are SD11 in  north Tulsa (26.5%), SD48 (27.2%) and SD46 (37.5%) in Oklahoma City, SD9 (41.1%) in Muskogee and Cherokee counties, and SD16 (42.3%) in Cleveland County.

The average rating for all Senate seats is up 1.4 points to 53.5%. For Republican-held seats, it's up 0.2 points to 55.5%, while for Democrat-held seats it's up 3.5 points to 41.8%.

The three most Republican seats held by Democrats are SD34 (an early 2016 special-election stunner) at 59.1%, SD44 (51.8%; the most recent special-election grab), and SD32 (47.9%).

The five least Republican seats held by Republicans are all in southeast or east-central Oklahoma -SD9 (41.1%), SD7 (43.9%), SD8 (44.7%), SD5 (44.9%), and SD6 (47.3%).

Of note, the least-Republican Republican-held House and Senate districts both cover the city of Muskogee and most of Muskogee County, and both were won in 2016.


If you'd like to see maps to show where all the different districts are, go here for State House maps and here for State Senate maps.

Below the break, I've added two more sheets: one showing all House and Senate districts together for comparison, and the other showing the percentage changes each district had since the 2016 rating.

BONUS

Here's the House and Senate combined, to show the RDR for all 149 districts:

This one is still sorted by most-to-least, but shows the percentage changes each district had since 2016:

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