Rick Perry endorses Scott Pruitt for Senate

Former Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt is touting an endorsement from former Texas Governor Rick Perry for Pruitt's Senate campaign. Both men served in the Trump administration - Pruitt as EPA Administrator, and Perry as Secretary of Energy.

Bobby Jindal drops out of Presidential race

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has ended his presidential campaign. Jindal, arguably the most conservative governor in the country for the past eight years, never really got a chance to break through into the top tier, rarely polling nationally above 1-2%. His main "strength" was in Iowa, where he polled as high as 6% -- his campaign was based on pulling out an upset win in the 'Hawkeye Caucii'.

It's a sad state of affairs when the first three GOP candidates to exit the 2016 race are conservative, successful, multi-term governors (Perry, Walker, Jindal).

Here is his full statement:

I cannot tell you what an honor it has been to run for President of the United States of America. My parents came to this country 45 years ago searching for freedom and a chance.
When I was born, we lived in student housing at LSU, and never in their wildest dreams did they think their son would have the opportunity to serve as Governor of Louisiana or to run for President.

They raised me to believe Americans can do anything, and they were right, we can. But this is not my time, so I am suspending my campaign for President.

Going forward, I believe we have to be the party of growth and we can never stop being the party that believes in opportunity. We cannot settle for The Left’s view of envy and division. We have to be the party that says everyone in this country – no matter the circumstances of their birth or who their parents are – can succeed in America.

One of the things I will do is go back to work at the think tank I started a few years ago – where I will be outlining a blueprint for making this the American century.

We must show the way forward on growing our economy and winning the war against terror, and especially defeating radical Islam.

I realize that our country is off on the wrong track right now. Everyone knows that, but don’t forget, this is still the greatest country in the history of the world – and every single one of us should start every day by thanking God that we are fortunate enough to be US citizens.

Now is the time for all those Americans who still believe in freedom and American exceptionalism to stand up and defend it. The idea of America – the idea that my parents came here for almost a half a century ago – that idea is slipping away from us. Freedom is under assault from both outside our borders and from within. We must act now, we do not have a moment to spare.

Jindal was in my initial top three out of the field. Scott Walker was who I leaned toward at the beginning, but then he dropped out. For the last two months I've been in a toss-up between Cruz and Jindal.

Jindal has the stellar conservative record of reform that we need in Washington. Sadly, the electorate this time around is more enamored with the high-on-flash-low-on-substance Donald Trump than they are with real solutions. Regardless of who becomes the GOP nominee and defeats Hilary Clinton, Bobby Jindal needs to play a prominent role in the next administration.

With Walker and Jindal now out, count me on the Cruz Crew train.

#16: John Kasich launches presidential campaign

This morning, Ohio Governor John Kasich launched his presidential campaign, becoming the 16th major Republican candidate to announce.

Here's his announcement speech:



An interesting point about Kasich is that he is angling for the centrist/moderate wing of the party, much like Jon Huntsman did in 2012 (Kasich hired most of Huntsman's former campaign team), and John McCain did in 2000. Another similar tie between those three is that like Huntsman and McCain, Kasich is making New Hampshire his "do-or-die" state.


Kasich joins 15 other Republicans running for President (links go to the candidate's official website): Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker .

#15: Scott Walker makes it official

Earlier today, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially joined the race for President, as he was widely expected to do for some time.

Here's his announcement speech:



He gave his speech with no teleprompter or notes, and released a transcript before the event began. Reporters noted that he followed the prereleased text almost verbatim, which is pretty remarkable for a lengthy speech like this.

Walker joins 14 other Republicans running for President: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and Donald Trump.

16 in '16: My thoughts on the GOP field so far

16 in '16 -- the GOP candidates

The presidential race is starting to heat up, and it's definitely going to be interesting to watch. Here are some thoughts on how I'm leaning at this stage of the race.

We've got 16 major candidates on the GOP side of things. I'll try to list them in order of my preference:


LEANING TOWARD

• Scott Walker
• Ted Cruz
• Bobby Jindal
• Rand Paul

OPEN TO

• Marco Rubio
• Rick Perry
• Mike Huckabee
• Ben Carson
• Rick Santorum

RULED OUT

• Carly Fiorina
• Donald Trump
• Chris Christie
• John Kasich
• George Pataki
• Lindsey Graham
• Jeb Bush

This is roughly the order of my current preference. It's not how I view the candidate rankings in order of their chance at the nomination (that list would look quite different).

The further down the list, the more reservations I have about the candidates. As you can see, I've already marked off about half of the field. Fiorina ran for Senate in California as a more moderate candidate than she currently is presenting herself as. Christie, Kasich and Pataki are on the more moderate end of the GOP spectrum, Trump has been all over the place politically speaking (past Democrat and Clinton donor, left-leaning policy positions, etc), Graham has been on the wrong side of far too many issues in the Senate, and Bush... too many problems there to go into, least of which is his last name.

That takes care of the "ruled out" category. Now moving to Tier 2, working from the bottom on up.

Although he wasn't my first choice, I voted for Santorum in 2012. Santorum became the "conservative champion" by default, even though his record in the Senate was not the most conservative. He simply was the last man standing who had a shot at beating Romney. The only way he gets my vote again is if by some miracle/catastrophe he becomes the last option other than, say, Jeb Bush.

Ben Carson has a fantastic personal story to tell, and I think he would play very well in a general election. However, I am concerned with his inexperience with governing, as well as some of his public positions on issues like the 2nd Amendment.

The first vote I ever cast was for Mike Huckabee in 2008. His was the first presidential campaign I really got involved in. I donated, I made phone calls to several different states, and I waved signs, among other things. I still have a soft spot for Mike, but he's made some missteps since 2008, and there are so many good options this year.

Rick Perry had, for the most part, a great record as governor of Texas. He has an advantage over Huckabee and some of the others on this list due to how recently he was in office (left in January of 2015, as opposed to 2007 or earlier). Most candidates would kill for a record like his, but there's a gap between Perry on paper and Perry on the campaign trail.

I appreciate Marco Rubio's dedication in running for president. Some candidates, both now and in the past, have run for president while simultaneously seeking the office they currently hold. Rubio doesn't think that's right, and neither do I. He has a generally good record in the Senate, and would be a great, forward-looking face for the GOP. More than anyone else, Rubio almost makes it in my top tier.

Now for the ones I'm most seriously considering.

Rand Paul appeals to me primarily on a fiscal front. I'm not as sold on some of his foreign and social policies, though much more comfortable with his than with his dad's. Nobody running for president would be as good on fiscal issues as Rand. However, there are a few others that are more well-rounded for my taste. That being said, I think Rand can appeal to some new audiences for the GOP, and I would generally be very happy with a Rand Paul presidency.

Bobby Jindal is an under-appreciated governor. I don't know how his campaign will play out, or if he will gain traction, but he definitely deserves a look. From a policy standpoint, he's extremely intelligent and reform-minded (he's the biggest policy wonk in the field). He's got a great record at that. He's just plagued with a state (Louisiana) that hasn't appreciated that.

Ted Cruz hits all the right buttons. He says the right things, votes the right way, rubs the DC establishment the wrong (or rather, right) way, is articulate and quick on his feet when faced with a hostile media (in other words, every interview he gets). However, I've not heard or read much about his authoring major legislation. Rand Paul has offered alternate budgets, Marco Rubio a tax plan, Coburn had "Back in Black", Bobby Jindal has a healthcare plan, but I don't recall Ted Cruz having offered something like that (other than repealing ObamaCare). Derailing bad legislation is needed, but we also need good alternatives.

Scott Walker is probably in the lead (narrowly) for me right now. He's got a good record as governor, in a very difficult state for a conservative Republican. He beat the Democratic/union machine three times in four years -- a remarkable feat, given that Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984. As Governor, he's led on tough reforms, and won. He has executive experience that a Senator simply doesn't have, and that would be helpful as President.


That's where I'm at right now. You have to admit, we have some fantastic choices this election. Out of 16 candidates, there are nine I'd be happy with, and four or five I'd be thrilled at. The debates begin on August 6th, and voting starts in less than seven months. Buckle up, the ride is about to start!

#14: Christie joins GOP presidential field

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie announced his presidential campaign on Tuesday, becoming the fourteenth major candidate on the Republican side.

Here's video from his announcement rally:


Christie joins thirteen other Republicans running for President: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and Donald Trump.

There are only two other major candidates expected to join the race now -- Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (July 13th) and Ohio Governor John Kasich (July 21st).

As busy as this election cycle seems to be, we're actually "behind schedule" when compared to 2008 and 2012. By this point in 2008, there had already been 3 televised debates (starting on May 3rd), and in 2012 there had been two (starting on May 5th). This time around the first debate is set for August 6th.

Jeb Bush, Donald Trump join GOP presidential field

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush finally made his presidential campaign official yesterday, with a kickoff rally in Miami.



Also announcing today in New York City was businessman and entertainment personality Donald Trump.



Bush and Trump join ten other Republicans running for President: Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum.

Some Brief Blogging Bullets

It's been a while since I last posted, so here are some "brief blogging bullets" to get up to date on a variety of issues.

• A week ago today, my wife and I were headed out of town for a friend's wedding and a last vacation before the baby arrives. We only made it about 20 miles down the road before the trip ended. Instead, I had emergency surgery on a ruptured appendix, and spent four days in the hospital. Feel like a total bum, with a 7½-month pregnant wife doing stuff for me that I'm banned from for now. I didn't expect to use Samaritan Ministries again so soon, but it's a relief knowing that my medical bills will be met.

• Former Texas Governor Rick Perry joined the presidential race on the GOP side (here's his announcement speech). Former Rhode Island senator (as Republican) and governor (as an Independent) Lincoln Chafee jumped in the Democrat primary (his speech), completing his political transformation.

• Speaking of new candidates, for a refresher, here's the "official" roster of (major) announced presidential hopefuls. There are still more waiting on the sidelines.
  
  

  Republicans (10)

• Ben Carson
• Ted Cruz
• Carly Fiorina
• Lindsey Graham
• Mike Huckabee
• George Pataki
• Rand Paul
• Rick Perry
• Marco Rubio
• Rick Santorum
  
  Democrats (4)
• Lincoln Chafee
• Hillary Clinton
• Martin O'Malley
• Bernie Sanders  

• Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee will both be making campaign stops in Oklahoma in the next week. Cruz is doing a lunch with the OKGOP on Saturday the 13th, while Huckabee will be doing two fundraisers, one in Tulsa on Wednesday the 17th, and in OKC on Thursday the 18th. Follow the links for ticket details.

• Over on Race42016.com, one of my favorite conservative sites on presidential politics, Matt Coulter has a post on the death of the Ames Straw Poll, and how the televised debate invitations will play the role of "winnowing the field" usually assumed by the infamous Iowa straw poll.

• The New York Times' published several hit pieces recently on GOP presidential candidate Marco Rubio. They examined some of his and his wife's speeding tickets and traffic violations, financial debt, the purchase of a "luxury" speedboat (aka, a fairly average fishing boat), and his West Miami home. HotAir.com has a great post on it here, along with photos comparing Rubio's house with Hillary's, and his boat with John Kerry's.

• In Oklahoma political news, state senator Rick Brinkley (R-Owasso) is in a bunch of hot water. Formerly the president and COO of the Tulsa Better Business Bureau, he was fired in April, and the BBB alleges that he embezzled more than $1M in his fifteen years with the organization. Brinkley was well positioned to replace term-limited Senate Pro Temore Brian Bingman as the Senate's top official, but.... I don't think that's going to happen now. 

First votes from NH: Dixville Notch and Hart's Location

Political novelties Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, two tiny hamlets in New Hampshire, have cast their votes in the GOP primary. The communities are allowed by law to open voting right after midnight, and close when all registered voters complete voting (usually within minutes).

The GOP primary results from the two "first in the nation" locations:

• Mitt Romney: 7
• Ron Paul: 5
• Jon Huntsman: 4
• Newt Gingrich: 2
• Rick Perry: 1

Barack Obama received ten votes in the Democratic primary.

All eyes turn to South Carolina...

After the closer-than-a-hair finish in Iowa, sparked by the Santorum Surge, all eyes are now on South Carolina.

After squeaking out a plurality in Iowa by eight votes (which some are already calling into question), Mitt Romney goes into New Hampshire this Tuesday as the overwhelming favorite. The latest Rasmussen poll puts Romney at 42%, with Ron Paul at 18% and Rick Santorum at 13%. However, given Romney's history in the state, and the fact that he governed in next-door Massachusetts, that is not unexpected.

As Mark B. Lowe on Race42012.com posted this morning, We all know the old political adage, “Three tickets out of Iowa, two out of New Hampshire”. For a while now, a third phrase has been added to it, “One out of South Carolina”. Since 1980, the winner of the South Carolina primary has ended up being the eventual GOP presidential nominee.

The Rasmussen poll in South Carolina finds a close race between Romney at 27% and Santorum at 24%. Santorum was at 1% in the last poll taken by Rasmussen - an astounding surge! If they do not finish first or second, Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry will probably end their campaigns, as there will be no momentum or reason to continue.

South Carolina votes on January 21st, and will most likely again decide the Republican presidential nominee.

Iowa Caucus - final thoughts, predictions

The day has finally arrived - the 2012 presidential primary officially kicks off today with the Iowa Caucuses this evening. Who will emerge as the winners tonight? Let's take a closer look at the candidates.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney should be the clear leader in Iowa. He has the money, the name recognition, the organization, the past campaign experience in the state...... yet he has struggled to break above the low 20's in polling. Iowans, like most of the rest of the country, clearly are hesitant about him. Romney's support has stayed fairly consistent throughout the year, while practically every other candidate has leapfrogged him to the lead (and subsequently plummeted while the next 'Not Romney' candidate took the lead). I think that Romney faces a very real possibility of coming in third in Iowa. Will it hurt him? I don't think it damages him too much, because next week is the New Hampshire primary, where he has a formidable 20+ point lead. Iowa is more about who will challenge Romney than how much it helps or hurts Romney.

Ron Paul

It's no coincidence that two of the top candidates in Iowa were candidates in 2008. Ron Paul has an extensive network in this state that stems from his previous presidential run - an advantage that only Romney also enjoys among the other candidates. Polling showed Paul leading or tied with Romney until about a week ago, when his numbers slipped a few points. While I think he will be in the top three, I don't think that the undecideds will break heavily in Paul's favor, instead going to candidates like Santorum and Perry.

Rick Santorum

Santorum has been surging here in the last week and a half - fruit from spending almost his entire campaign in Iowa. Nobody has visited the state more, and it looks to finally be paying off. A week ago, he was in sixth place. Now he's in third, with an upward trajectory. More so than any other candidate, Santorum needs a top three finish in Iowa, but preferably a top two. He has practically no ground game anywhere else, so his path to the nomination depends on momentum out of Iowa. Coming in fourth kills his campaign; however, I think he has a real possibility of finishing first.

Newt Gingrich

Like Paul, Perry, Bachmann, and Herman Cain, Gingrich peaked in Iowa too early. Third place looks like the best possible scenario that Gingrich can achieve at this point, but that is pretty unlikely. Gingrich's ground organization doesn't appear to be as well organized as other candidates, a key component of performing well in caucuses. He needs new life breathed into his campaign, and a poor showing in Iowa will not help his fading chances in the next states.

Rick Perry

Perry's campaign appears to have recovered some from its earlier doldrums, and can likely jump into fourth in Iowa. A third place finish which would be very big for his campaign, but I don't think it will happen. He seems to have a good organization on the ground, and has enough money to fund operations in multiple states (unlike Santorum, Bachmann, Huntsman, and possibly Gingrich). Perry needs a good showing in Iowa in order to show viability; a fifth or sixth place would be detrimental to his campaign.

Michele Bachmann

Bachmann has to perform well in Iowa. She has staked most of her campaign on the state, and at one time was the frontrunner here (a title nearly every candidate has owned at one point or another). Unfortunately for her, polling just isn't showing a new spark of life - she currently is in sixth in just about every poll out there. She needs to be fourth to really justify continuing her campaign.

Jon Huntsman

Huntsman opted to not compete in Iowa, and is instead focusing solely on the New Hampshire primary next Tuesday. His hope is for Romney to do poorly in Iowa, in order to make the case to New Hampshire voters that Romney can't win, leaving Huntsman as the viable option.

How will it end up?

I'm going to take a stab and jot down some thoughts on the results.

Santorum - 23%
Romney - 21%
Paul - 20%
Perry - 15%
Gingrich - 10%
Bachmann - 9%
Huntsman - 2%
Other - <1%

Comment with your predictions, here or on Facebook, and see how close you get to the final results.

Poll shows Gingrich leading in Oklahoma (but take with a grain of salt)

SoonerPoll.com conducted a poll over the past month on the presidential primary here in Oklahoma. It has some interesting results, but I'll explain why it should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Newt Gingrich: 33.3%
Mitt Romney: 14.3%
Rick Perry: 9.3%
Herman Cain:  9.3% (dropped out during polling, but was kept in for consistency)
Ron Paul: 4.3%
Michele Bachmann: 3.5%
Rick Santorum: 1.5%
Jon Huntsman: 1.3%
Don't know/refused: 23.5%

SoonerPoll.com conducted the scientific poll Nov. 17-Dec. 16, 2011.  The survey was of 400 'Likely' Oklahoma voters who identified themselves as Republicans, with a margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

At the start of their polling, Herman Cain was still an active candidate. Upon his withdrawal, SoonerPoll had to keep his name in the poll, in order for consistency in the survey.

However, Cain's inclusion isn't the problem for me -- my hesitation is based on the length of the poll. Most surveys of this nature are done in a two to three day period, sometimes as long as a week. This one took a whole month, which seems excessive to me. With this particular election cycle, much transpires in a month's time (a prime example in this poll being Herman Cain's candidacy).

A primary poll is essentially a snapshot of the current mood of the electorate in regards to the candidates. When a poll is of this length, it loses focus, and the results become fuzzy and out of focus.

Gingrich may well have this type of a lead in Oklahoma, but I take this poll with a big grain of salt. Until another poll confirms the results, put an asterisk beside this one.

Ron Paul wins OKGOP Straw Poll

Results for the Oklahoma Republican Party Presidential Straw Poll were announced this evening at the "Victory 2012" rally in Oklahoma City. Texas Congressman Ron Paul emerged as the victor of the online poll, which required a five dollar donation per vote, and was limited to one vote per individual.

The results:

1. Ron Paul - 46%
2. Herman Cain - 25%
3. Newt Gingrich - 17%
4. Mitt Romney - 6%
5. Rick Perry - 3%
6. Michele Bachmann - 2%
7. Rick Santorum - 1%
8. Gary Johnson - less than 1%

Poll was conducted online at www.OklahomaStrawPoll.com from November 21st to December 5th. For more details visit www.oklahomastrawpoll.com/faq or call (405) 528-3501.

GOP Presidential Candidates' Mount Rushmore Additions

ABC News and Yahoo recently teamed up to conduct a round of interviews with the Republican presidential candidates, which included a "lightning round" covering more personal, non-political questions; you can view the synopsis here. It's an interesting and entertaining read.

One of the questions asked was about additions to Mount Rushmore.

From ABC News/Yahoo:

Question: Who should be the fifth president on Mount Rushmore?

• Jon Huntsman: Ronald Reagan, but I worked for him 100 years ago, and I saw him up close as an advance man. Very special man.
• Michele Bachmann: Well, Ronald Reagan would be a good choice.  But — I– I think just — Garfield was the last member who was — the House of Representatives, who became president of the United States — and he — and he was a very — he was a wonderful man.  But also, I’d have to say, Calvin Coolidge should be up there, too. Calvin Coolidge, because Calvin Coolidge — was able to get the United States’ budget way on track.  And he really was a taking-care-of-business kinda guy.
• Rick Perry: I think there’s enough presidents on Mount Rushmore already.
• Mitt Romney: I got a couple.  John Adams and Ronald Reagan.
• Herman Cain: The fifth president that belongs on Mt. Rushmore, he hasn't been president yet.  No, the one possibility up until this point would be Ronald Reagan.
• Newt Gingrich: I’ll go for five and six:  F.D.R. and Reagan.

Who would you pick for an addition to Mount Rushmore? Would you even choose anyone? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

Note: Ron Paul and Rick Santorum were also interviewed, but did not have time to get the Mount Rushmore question in their roughly two-minute lightning round.

Perry slams Romney in web ad

Texas Governor Rick Perry's presidential campaign released a hard-hitting ad against fellow GOP contender Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts. Take a look.

Perry Wins Oklahoma State Fair Straw Poll

The Oklahoma County Republican Party conducted a straw poll at the Oklahoma State Fair in Oklahoma City. Rick Perry won the GOP primary portion of the poll, in which nearly two thousand ballots were cast over a ten-day period.

Whom do you expect to vote for in the Republican Presidential Primary?

Oklahoma County GOP straw poll; 1,947 votes, Sept. 15th-25th

Rick Perry - 39%
Ron Paul - 19%
Mitt Romney - 14%
Herman Cain - 11%
Michele Bachmann - 7%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Jon Huntsman - 2%
Rick Santorum - 2%

You can the rest of the results (six questions in all) here.

Cain wins Florida's 'Presidency 5' Straw Poll

Herman Cain scored an unexpected, and rather stunning, victory in today's Presidency 5 straw poll in Florida. Mitt Romney and Rick Perry had been expected to be the top contenders in the Florida GOP event, but Cain took the straw poll by storm.

1. Herman Cain - 996 (37.1%)
2. Rick Perry - 409 (15.4%)
3. Mitt Romney - 372 (14%)
4. Rick Santorum - 289 (10.9%)
5. Ron Paul - 276 (10.4%)
6. Newt Gingrich - 224 (8.4%)
7. Jon Huntsman - 60 (2.3%)
8. Michelle Bachmann - 40 (1.5%)

After an initial (and massive) surge, Rick Perry has had a difficult few weeks. This is a painful end to the week, as it continues the story-line of Perry's campaign troubles.

Also surprising about this poll was that Ron Paul (well known for targeting straw polls) came in fifth, and Michelle Bachmann came in a very distant dead last. Bachmann and Romney did both skip the event, but in a gathering of party faithful in a contentious primary, one would expect their numbers to have been higher (particularly Bachmann's).

This is very good news for Herman Cain, and will give some much-needed wind in his campaign's sails. Presidency 5 organizers like to tout the fact that the winners in their three previous straw polls (1979, 1987 and 1995) went on to become the Republican nominee every time.

Perry and Romney on Social Security, plus your take

At last night's presidential debate, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney had a heated exchange over Social Security and the direction needed for the program.

Perry called Social Security "a Ponzi scheme" and "a monstrous lie". Romney said that the GOP nominee "has to be someone who isn't committed to abolishing Social Security, but is committed to saving Social Security", and that he would never say Social Security was a failure. Listen to this clip:




Now, for your reaction, use the poll below and comment on the post.

State of the Race: My Take

The Ames Straw Poll is over. Tim Pawlenty is out. Rick Perry is in. The debates are taking place. Sarah Palin is still hinting. Candidates are pounding pavement in the early states.

What does the race look like right now for the GOP presidential primary? This post is my take on the landscape as it currently stands, divided into three categories of candidates.

The Contenders

I view the nomination as a battle between three individuals - Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann; or, another way to put it, Mitt Romney versus 'Not-Romney'.

Mitt Romney

After falling short in 2008, Mitt Romney finds himself at the head of the pack - and with that comes the added attention and criticism the lead man gets. Four years have given his opponents ample time to sharpen their knives, and Romney's embrace of his Massachusetts health care program (which ObamaCare was modeled after) has done little to help him on what is sure to be one of the hottest topics this cycle.

Romney is in the same position as John McCain was in 2008; almost every other candidate is to the right of him, and he is the one they all love to hate. Nevertheless, due to his large war chest, well-oiled campaign machine and experience gained in 2007-2008 on the campaign trail, he is the leader - for now. Romney's best chance is for the rest of the field to continue to be diluted, but if the grassroots begin to consolidate behind one candidate, he will be in trouble.

Rick Perry 

The big Texan has burst on the scene, and in a short time has taken this race by the horns. But does Perry have the staying power to wrestle it to the ground? Only time will tell.

As the newest kid on the block, Perry has not undergone as thorough a national vetting as the others. Expect him to hit some rough patches. However, his organization is top-notch, and has the advantage of running numerous races in one of the largest states in the Union. The transition from gubernatorial to presidential campaigning will likely be much smoother for Perry's team than it was for any other candidate.

At the moment, Perry may have the aura of the conservative's best hope to beat Romney, but the longer he is in the race, the more his record will be scrutinized, and there will be controversial issues some conservatives may find troubling. Also, Perry will still have to keep other 'Not-Romney' candidates at bay to secure the nomination.

Michele Bachmann

The feisty congresswoman from Minnesota may have been passed up by the surging Perry, but underestimate Michele Bachmann at your own peril. Bachmann is to the right of both Romney and Perry, and is well connected with the Tea Party movement, which will benefit her.

However, she does face several hurdles. First of all, nobody has gone straight to the White House from the U.S. House since James Garfield was elected in 1880 (Gerald Ford was appointed Vice President, then became President when Nixon resigned; Ford was never elected to either office). Secondly, the winner of the Ames Straw Poll rarely becomes the winner of the Iowa Caucus, or of the nomination. Her path to the nomination relies almost entirely on winning in Iowa.

Bachmann has lost some steam as the 'Not-Romney' focus has been moved to Perry for the time being, but I think she can bounce back. Perry's entrance will force Bachmann and her campaign to work harder (with Perry in, if Palin also ran it would be devastating to Michele's chances). At this stage, Bachmann is still in the top tier, and very much in the running.

The Man who will not go away

Ron Paul

The libertarian-leaning congressman from Texas almost defies categorizing. There is a definite gap between Romney/Perry/Bachmann/Paul and the rest of the crowd, with Paul in the rear of the top four. Nevertheless, I do not include him in my Contenders category.

I'm sure I'll catch some flak from the Paul crowd, but I see little room for Paul to grow, and I don't see him even getting close to winning the nomination. He holds many views that are outside the mainstream of Republican and conservative thought, and will only appeal to a limited slice of the primary electorate. Ron Paul will not be going away, but he has little room to grow.

Paul has attracted a very obsessed and zealous following, from which he raises large sums of money. However, I don't think he can spend enough money to gain enough support to win in the Republican primary. I don't see him becoming anything other than a niche candidate.

The Background Noise

Some of these candidates appeared as if they would break into the top, or at one time actually led in polling, but have since dissipated to the degree that they will have little impact on the race. Others never had a chance at all.

Herman Cain

Cain is done. It's unfortunate, because I thought he might have a shot at becoming a very serious contender, but shallow support, serious gaffes, and sub-par debate performances seem to have done him in.

Herman is a very charismatic individual and can energize the Republican base, but his political inexperience has caused problems for him on the campaign trail, and as a result, the campaign is suffering. Polling has shown a sharp drop for Cain, and I don't see him recovering.

Rick Santorum

The former senator never really had a chance to begin with. His only shot at the nomination is to win in Iowa, and that simply will not happen with Perry, Bachmann, Romney and Paul all taking significant portions of the Hawkeye electorate.

Newt Gingrich

Newt Gingrich may be an intelligent individual, but he has offended too many conservatives and been out of politics too long to be a viable candidate. His debate performances, particularly at the most recent one, have been atrocious, with Newt coming off as a grumpy old man who can't handle tough questions. Newt should hang up his hat and go home before he makes an even greater fool of himself.

Jon Huntsman

If Jon Huntsman thinks playing the moderate in the race will secure the nomination in this climate, he is sadly mistaken. Enough said.

Thad McCotter

Thad McCotter is a great guy with a dry sense of humor, but honestly, the congressman never had a remote chance at getting anywhere near the top in this primary. I don't know what he was thinking when he decided to get in.

Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson is a non-candidate for numerous reasons, the biggest of which is Ron Paul. Johnson is even more libertarian than Paul is, and that will not fly in a Republican primary. Gary would be better suited running on the Libertarian ticket - where he would meet with equal electoral non-success.

The Palin Wild-card

Sarah Palin

If Palin jumps in, which I consider unlikely, the primary game could change dramatically. Palin is immensely popular with the grassroots, and can raise a ton of money, but does popularity translate into votes? Sarah no longer polls as well as she once did, but that could change if she gets in.

Candidate Palin would immediately join the top-tier, most likely pushing Michele Bachmann out at the same time. I do think Palin has a harder time convincing people she can beat Obama; her brand has been damaged (unfairly so) that I don't know how viable she really is as a general election candidate. Nevertheless, like I said, if Sarah Palin gets in, everything changes, and that could be very positive for her.

Poll: Perry leads in Oklahoma

Perry Leads GOP Field in Oklahoma

Pat McFerron, CHS

In a survey conducted just days before he formally entered the race, Texas Governor Rick Perry holds a 5-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Sooner State. In the survey of 215 registered Republicans in Oklahoma. Perry is the choice of 22% while Romney claims support from 17%. Michele Bachmann is a distant third in the state (8%) and is followed by Herman Cain (6%) and Newt Gingrich (5%).

In 2008, Romney finished third with just under 25% of the vote in Oklahoma’s primary, trailing both John McCain (37%) and Mike Huckabee (33%).

In addition to leading the overall ballot, Perry shows strength among key elements of the Oklahoma primary electorate. Among the most active Republican primary voters (the 24% who have voted in the last four partisan primaries), Perry’s lead is even greater (20% Perry vs. 12% Romney), though Bachmann does make a stand (19%). Perry also has a strong lead among the 20% of Republicans most interested in moral issues (21% Perry vs. 7% Romney) and the 61% who describe themselves as “strong conservatives” (30% Perry vs. 12% Romney vs. 11% Bachmann).

Romney’s most significant lead is among the 20% of Oklahoma Republicans living in households with annual incomes in excess of $100,000 (31% Romney vs. 19% Perry).

In another way to test the strength of the national candidates, Republicans were asked a follow-up question about if they would support either former Congressman J.C. Watts or U.S. Senator Tom Coburn as a favorite son in the state. In this instance, 58% of Republicans said they would support one of the “favorite son” candidates, while only 23% said they would support one of the national candidates. When looking at this question, we see that Perry’s support is slightly stronger than is Romney’s, as 68% of Romney’s supporters would opt for one of Oklahoma’s favorite sons, whereas only 54% of Perry’s would do the same.

The survey, conducted August 9-11, 2011 was the Republican portion of a 500-sample survey of voters statewide. Subscribers to Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates’ publication The Sooner Survey will get the results of the full survey. The Republican sub-sample has a margin of error is +/- 6.7%.

Also of interest is the fact that Perry’s lead is not solely in those areas bordering Texas. In fact, in the Oklahoma City and Tulsa media markets (which do not cover Texas news or politics) Perry’s lead is almost identical to what is seen statewide.

“Despite the small sample size and the time before Oklahoma’s primary, it is clear Rick Perry is the candidate to beat in Oklahoma. The cross-tabulations indicate he is already the choice of the most prolific voters, and one could expect his strength to grow in this neighboring state,” stated Pat McFerron, Director of Survey Research for Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates, a position he has held since 1994. “When looking at the large number of undecided voters, there is no reason to think they would break against Perry.”

It should be noted, Tim Pawlenty was included in the study, as interviewing occurred prior to his withdrawal.

Text of questions and percentage responses follow.

1. If the Republican primary for President were held today, would you be voting for:

Rick Perry - 22%
Mitt Romney - 17%
Michele Bachmann - 8%
Herman Cain - 6%
Newt Gingrich - 5%
Ron Paul - 3%
John Huntsman - 2%
Tim Pawlenty - 2%
Undecided (vol.) - 33%

2. As you may be aware, in the past, some states have run candidates known as favorite sons for President. If either JC Watts or Tom Coburn ran for President as an Oklahoma favorite son, would you vote for one of these two candidates or one of those running nationwide?

Would vote for national candidate - 23%
Would vote for Watts or Coburn - 58%
Undecided (vol.) - 18%

NOTE: in the 2008 Oklahoma presidential primary, Romney received 24% of the vote, and Ron Paul received 3%. This CHS poll shows Paul at the same level, and Romney seven points down. None of the other candidates have run for president before.