Trump/Pence officially becomes GOP ticket

Donald Trump is now the Republican nominee for President. Here's the official vote tally from earlier this evening at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland:

Donald Trump - 1,725
Ted Cruz - 475
John Kasich - 120
Marco Rubio - 114
Ben Carson - 7
Jeb Bush - 3
Rand Paul - 2

Indiana Gov. Mike Pence was nominated for Vice President by a voice vote.

Inhofe endorses..... John Kasich

Because nothing says "he can stop Trump" like winning just ONE out of the thirty-one primaries and caucuses so far, Jim Inhofe is now supporting John Kasich, who mathematically needs about 110% of all remaining delegates in order to win. Inhofe had previously supported Marco Rubio.

Here's the press release from the Kasich campaign:

U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe Endorses John Kasich for President

Today U.S. Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK) announced his support for Gov. John Kasich’s presidential campaign.

Said Inhofe, “Out of the three still in the race for president, John is my guy. I served with John in Congress when he successfully spearheaded the effort to balance the federal budget and, as a member of the Armed Services Committee, helped President Reagan enact his national security agenda. During this time, I also attended a weekly Bible study with him for eight years. You learn a lot about a person when you attend a Bible study together, so I can tell you personally that he is a man of his word. When he talked, people listened. Now the country is listening to his message of optimism and results. That’s refreshing. I’m proud to stand by his side as we spread this message to voters in the weeks ahead.”

Inhofe is an Army veteran and avid pilot who serves as Chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee and Senior Member of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Several publications, including National Journalmagazine and Human Events, have ranked Inhofe among the Senate’s most outstanding conservative members. Prior to his election to the Senate in 1994, Inhofe represented Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives.

“It is an incredible honor to receive the support of my friend and former colleague, Senator Jim Inhofe,” said Kasich. “Jim is a role model to several generations of conservatives, and I trust his expertise and judgment implicitly. He knows Oklahoma voters better than just about anyone, so it’s a major win to have him in our corner going forward.”

Another note: does the Kasich campaign know that Oklahoma already voted, and that he received only 3.59%? Read the last sentence of the press release again, and tell me how Inhofe knowing "Oklahoma voters better than just about anyone" is a "major win... going forward".

Oklahoma results: Trump dominated early, but Cruz surged on election day

Looking at the returns for Oklahoma's Republican presidential primary, you can see that winner Ted Cruz made a big surge with election-day voting.

Absentee voting made up 2.39% of total votes cast, and Donald Trump had a 6.06% lead over Cruz. Early voting was 4.08% of votes cast, and Trump still had a 5.77% lead over Cruz. However, Cruz beat Trump by 6.87% on election day, where 93.52% of all ballots were cast. On election day, there was a 12.64% swing in Cruz's favor.

Other results:

• After a slight increase between absentee and early voting, Marco Rubio held steady between early voting and election day. 
• Jeb Bush pulled 3.31% in absentees, but after he dropped out his figures dropped below 0.4%.
• Ben Carson dipped during early voting, then gained slightly on election day
• John Kasich lost about 1/3rd of his support on election day from what he got during the absentee/early voting.

Cruz wins Oklahoma amid record turnout; results by Congressional District

Ted Cruz surged back to win Oklahoma's presidential primary last night. Cruz greatly over-performing polling averages, which had Trump leading by 11.4% (at 32.7%), Rubio in second (21.3%) and Cruz in third (20.3%). Instead, Cruz took 34.37%, Trump collapsed to 28.32% and Rubio came in with 26.02%. The public polling was either total junk, or Cruz made a huge last-minute surge -- either or both may be true.

According to the Oklahoma State Election Board, the vote total was a record setter. 795,096 total votes were cast, breaking the Presidential Primary record of 752,261 in 2008. In addition, the GOP total of 459,542 votes beat the previous single-party record the Democrats set in 2008 of 417,207.

Here are the Republican results by Congressional District; Cruz won all but the 5th District, which went to Rubio.

1st Congressional District

Cruz - 33.14%
Rubio - 28.22%
Trump - 27.25%
Carson - 5.66%
Kasich - 4.36%
Bush - 0.43%
Paul - 0.34%
Huckabee - 0.22%
Fiorina - 0.14%
Christie - 0.11%
Santorum - 0.09%
Graham - 0.05%

2nd Congressional District

Cruz - 34.98%
Trump - 33.18%
Rubio - 20.67%
Carson - 7.22%
Kasich - 2.55%
Huckabee - 0.45%
Bush - 0.35%
Paul - 0.30%
Christie - 0.11%
Fiorina - 0.11%
Santorum - 0.07%
Graham - 0.05%

3rd Congressional District

Cruz - 36.08%
Trump - 29.38%
Rubio - 23.53%
Carson - 6.54%
Kasich - 2.85%
Bush - 0.53%
Huckabee - 0.36%
Paul - 0.35%
Christie - 0.13%
Fiorina - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.07%
Graham - 0.05%

4th Congressional District

Cruz - 37.05%
Trump - 28.26%
Rubio - 23.42%
Carson - 6.38%
Kasich - 3.37%
Bush - 0.46%
Paul - 0.44%
Huckabee - 0.26%
Fiorina - 0.12%
Christie - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.08%
Graham - 0.04%

5th Congressional District

Rubio - 32.35%
Cruz - 30.84%
Trump - 25.19%
Carson - 5.70%
Kasich - 4.44%
Bush - 0.48%
Paul - 0.37%
Huckabee - 0.20%
Fiorina - 0.16%
Christie - 0.12%
Santorum - 0.09%
Graham - 0.06%

Oklahoman Poll: Trump 29%, Rubio 21%, Cruz 20%, 18% undecided

A new poll by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates (commissioned by the Daily Oklahoman) finds Donald Trump continuing to hold a lead in Oklahoma, ahead of next week's primary.

Oklahoma Republican Primary Poll (link)

The Oklahoma/Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

400 likely Republican voters, conducted Feb. 22nd-23rd, MoE +/- 4.9%

Donald Trump - 29%
Marco Rubio - 21%
Ted Cruz - 20%
Ben Carson - 6%
John Kasich - 5%
Undecided - 18%
Other - 2%

18% undecided is a very large amount for this late in the game. For comparison, the most recent Oklahoma poll done by SoonerPoll had 7.7% undecided. Trump, Rubio and Cruz are making stops in Oklahoma between now and Sunday, each hoping to make tip the state into their win column on Super Tuesday.

Trump, Sanders win New Hampshire by large margins

The polls have closed in New Hampshire, and Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have handily won their respective primaries in the state.

As of 8:40pm CST, Sanders had 60.4% to Hillary Clinton's 38.6%, while Trump had 33.4% with John Kasich running second at 16.9%.

The real question of the night, which remains to be answered, is who will end up in third, fourth and fifth place on the Republican side. Marco Rubio had been widely expected to take second place, but is currently trailing in fifth.

On the Republican side, candidates have to get 10% in order to receive delegates. Christie, Fiorina and Carson are well below that threshold, but earlier in the returns Rubio was flirting with dipping below as well.

If Ted Cruz maintains third-place, that is huge. He was not expected to play well in moderate-heavy New Hampshire, and three of the more moderate candidates practically lived in New Hampshire during the campaign (Kasich, Bush and Christie).

Conservatives and Christians need to unite behind Ted Cruz

Conservatives and Christians need to unite behind Ted Cruz

by Jamison Faught

We are now ten days from the Iowa caucuses. After ten months of campaigning by (at one point) seventeen Republican candidates, we are about to see the first votes cast.

At this point, it's down to a two-man race. The only candidates with real, legitimate chances at the nomination are Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.

Donald Trump holds moderate to massive leads in every state that has been polled, with the exception of Iowa, where he is neck-and-neck with Cruz at the moment. Generally, Ted Cruz is in second-place in most states, sometimes, with breathing room between him and third.

John Kasich and Chris Christie's path to the nomination only comes with a New Hampshire victory, followed by miraculously winning other states where they have no infrastructure, no current support, or little money. There is no chance this happens.

Jeb Bush's path is a New Hampshire win and a South Carolina victory and somehow consolidating all of the support from every candidate not named Donald Trump. Extremely unlikely, but not totally impossible... until you realize that his campaign and super PAC have spent over $50M only to see his poll numbers vanish into obscurity. Wishful thinking.

Marco Rubio desperately needs to stay relevant by getting second in at least two of the first three states (Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina) - first-place in any of those is increasingly looking out of reach. He then needs success on Super Tuesday (aka "the SEC primary"), and survival until Florida and the later primaries. Rubio is taking fire from many directions, and is almost the sole target of the crashing Bush campaign. Outside of Trump and Cruz, he has the only shot at contention, but his chance is quickly beginning to fade away.

Really, none of the other candidates even have a shot at wining any state. There is no legitimate path to victory for Ben Carson, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, or Jim Gilmore.

That brings us back to Trump and Cruz. The choice between the two men couldn't be much clearer.

Many conservatives were wary of Mitt Romney in 2008 and 2012 because of past positions he had taken on key issues. Donald Trump outdoes Romney in flip-flopping.

In the past twenty-some years, and as recently as four years...

• Trump was registered as a Democrat, then an Independent
• Trump supported abortion
• Trump supported "assault" weapons bans and longer waiting periods for purchasing firearms
• Trump supported single-payer, socialized healthcare
• Trump supported massive tax increases
• Trump donated to liberals like Clinton, Schumer, Emanuel, the DSCC and DCCC
• Trump said his pro-partial birth abortion sister (a federal judge) would be a "phenomenal" Supreme Court justice
• Trump said Mitt Romney was too "mean-spirited" on illegal immigration

Name a liberal position, and it's highly likely that Donald Trump has held it in the recent past.

For all of Romney's problems, at least he tangibly proved his conservatism on some issues. Trump has proven nothing other than the fact that he'll abandon his beliefs for political expediency. Isn't that exactly what conservatives are upset with many politicians for doing?

Trump provides no assurances for his conservative fidelity other than his word, and he's proven in the past that his word can't be trusted.

Trump has no political ideology other than a strange hybrid of strong-arm authoritarianism and compromising deal-making. Conservatives should beware.

On a religious side of things, Trump is nominally a Presbyterian. I say nominal, because he exhibits great ignorance on his denomination's teachings and practices. I'm a Baptist, and I would be a better Presbyterian than Trump -- at least I could articulate what Presbyterian doctrine is.

Trump sees no need for asking God's forgiveness and practicing repentance. Christian values and ethics are a foreign language to him. He is practically illiterate when it comes to the Bible. He publicly mocked Ted Cruz's evangelicalism.

His personal life and actions does not show a man transformed by the redemptive work of Jesus Christ. Trump would be better classified as a Deist than a real Christian. Christians should beware.

At this point in the race, even if you prefer a different candidate, Ted Cruz is the only man who can stop Donald Trump. If Trump wins Iowa, his path to the nomination will be unstoppable.

Unlike many of the other candidates, if Ted Cruz is successful in Iowa, he actually has the organization and money and poll numbers to be competitive in the states that follow.

Unlike Trump, you know where Ted Cruz stands.

• Unlike Trump, Cruz is and has been uncompromisingly pro-life. 
• Unlike Trump, Cruz is and has been uncompromisingly pro-gun. 
• Unlike Trump, Cruz is and has been uncompromisingly against tax hikes.
• Unlike Trump, Cruz is and has been uncompromisingly against socialized medicine and ObamaCare
• Unlike Trump, Cruz is and has been fighting against the liberals in both parties in Washington
• Unlike Trump, Cruz would appoint conservatives in the style of Thomas and Scalia to the Supreme Court

Ted Cruz has a fully formed and tested conservative ideology. He's been through the fire and emerged without compromising his convictions. In an age when Republicans go to Washington and toss aside their campaign promises, Ted Cruz keeps his promises.  He is proven -- he doesn't just talk the conservative talk, he actually walks the walk.

One of the most important issues to think about is the Supreme Court. By the end of the next presidential term, four justices will be over eighty years old. Ginsburg (liberal) will be almost 88, Scalia (conservative) will be almost 85, Kennedy (swing) will be 84½, and Breyer (liberal) will be 82½. The balance of the court for decades to come may be at stake. Does anybody honestly think Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominations would be conservative like Ted Cruz's would be?

Ted Cruz is a genuine Christian. He's unafraid to discuss his faith and how it forms his worldview. He doesn't just pay lip-service to his faith, he lives it out.

He's an evangelical (a Southern Baptist) who understands the importance of Christian values in government, and the influence Biblical principles played in the formation of America. He's devoted to his family. He's humble enough to admit his dependence on the Lord.

His faith in God provides him the firm foundation to hold firm on his convictions, because he understands that he will be held to account for his actions.

These are some of the reasons why the Republican establishment hates Ted Cruz. They know that he can't be bought, he arm can't be twisted, and he won't go along to get along.

Rather, they are willing to risk suicide with the erratic and unpredictable Trump rather than side with the consistent conservatism of Cruz. They would prefer losing with Trump than winning and being "stuck" with Cruz. They dangerously assume that someone like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio can stop Trump if he defeats Cruz in Iowa. Instead, Trump will steamroll through New Hampshire, South Carolina, and all the rest of the states and territories that follow.

The only time Donald Trump can be stopped is in Iowa, and the only candidate that can stop him is Ted Cruz.

Now is the time for conservatives and Christians to unite behind Ted Cruz. Too much is at stake to not do so.


Jamison Faught is a conservative activist and blogger from Muskogee, Oklahoma. He has served as a Republican state committeeman and precinct chair, founded the Muskogee Tea Party when he was nineteen, and volunteered for numerous conservative candidates for offices from mayor to U.S. Senate.

Fox Business GOP Debate thoughts

As I have "poor man TV" (aka over-the-air broadcast), I watched the GOP debate last night online. Here are some of my thoughts.

Ranking/grade

• 1-T: Cruz (A) and Rubio (A)
• 2: Trump (B-)
• 3. Christie (B-)
• 4. Bush (C)
• 5. Kasich (C)
• 6. Carson (D)

For the first two-thirds of the debate, I thought Ted Cruz was winning big. He obliterated Trump on the "birther" question - the first candidate to clearly and thoroughly beat Trump in an exchange so far this election cycle. He failed to get time to respond to Marco Rubio's late shotgun blast, and that took wind out of his sails.

Rubio had some good moments early, but seemed to flail in the middle of the debate. He lost his exchange with Christie, but can take consolation  in the fact that Christie pretty much lied through his teeth on everything in that back-and-forth. He finished with a late but very strong attack on Cruz.

I think the debate was a Cruz-Rubio tie, possibly slight edge to Cruz.

Donald Trump exceeded my expectations. He had a masterful reply to the "angry" question, and had the best possible delivery of his "New York values" rebuttal. This was by far his best debate -- in fact, he continues to improve debate after debate.

Chris Christie was strong early, but as I mentioned above, blatantly lied about his record in the exchange with Rubio. He also has this terrible habit of interrupting substantive policy discussions with belittling comments about "the Senate floor", and "people don't care about this". Um, excuse me, but some people want to actually find out.

Jeb Bush was typical Jeb - bumbling and stumbling. I can't for the life of me figure out why he is so awful at speaking. He trips over words, sounds and looks awkward, and otherwise acts as if he's never done public speaking in his life. He'll get going on an intelligent and well-stated point, only to stumble through the ending. While he didn't have a disastrous debate, he needed an excellent performance, and didn't get close to it.

John Kasich was more coherent in this debate, and unlike every time before this sounded somewhat conservative at times. One of his (many) problems is that he constantly brings up how long he's been in politics (i.e. in Washington "during the Cold War"... which is an eternity ago in today's political world). He's probably the most tone-deaf candidate this cycle. This time, he managed to avoid last place.

Ben Carson bombed. Debates are not his strong point to begin with. He seemed caught off-guard by several questions, almost as if he was daydreaming. He had one or two good answers, but most of his responses were rambling. Especially on foreign policy, he sounded like he was reciting facts that he recently learned... but that everybody else knew already (in this debate, it was EMPs, dirty bombs, and cyber attacks). His campaign is floundering, and the reasons for his campaign to continue are dwindling fast.

Those are my thoughts. Leave a comment with yours.

Seven qualify for Fox Business debate; Paul, Fiorina demoted

Thursday's Republican presidential debate on the Fox Business Channel will be the smallest debate of the 2016 cycle for the GOP, as only 7 candidates made the cut.

Candidates qualified for the debate in one of two ways: be in the top six nationally in an average of the most recent live phone surveys, or be in the top five in Iowa or New Hampshire. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Ben Carson, Chris Christie and Jeb Bush all made it in by being in the top six nationally, while John Kasich got in by being in the top five in New Hampshire.

Rand Paul and Carly Fiorina, both present in the last debates, polled too low to make it in through either method. They will join Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum in the "undercard" debate, although Paul has said he will skip the junior debate altogether, as his "first tier campaign" deserves the "first tier debate".

Carson 25%, Trump 19%, Rubio 9%, Cruz 7% in OK poll

A new presidential primary poll finds GOP candidate Ben Carson now beating Donald Trump in Oklahoma. Commissioned by The Oklahoman newspaper, the survey shows some significant movement from the last one released by SoonerPoll in September.

Oklahoma Republican Primary Survey (link)
The Oklahoman/Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates500 registered Republicans in Oklahoma, Oct. 19th-22nd, MoE +/- 4.3%

Ben Carson - 25%
Donald Trump - 19%
Marco Rubio - 9%
Ted Cruz - 7%
Mike Huckabee - 4%
Jeb Bush - 3%
Carly Fiorina - 2%
John Kasich - 2%
Chris Christie - 1%
Rand Paul - 1%
Santorum/Pataki/Jindal/Graham - 0%
Undecided - 27%

Carson stopped in Oklahoma this past week for some book signings, and now leads Trump in recent Iowa polling.

Scott Walker drops out of Presidential race

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker officially suspended his presidential campaign this evening, ending a once-promising run for the White House that has fizzled out over the past few weeks.

Walker briefly led the GOP field in polling back in March, and was second to Jeb Bush until Donald Trump entered the race. Trump joining the race hurt Walker more than any other candidate.

Here's Walker's full statement:

As a kid, I was drawn to Ronald Reagan because he was a Republican and a conservative. But most of all, I admired him because of his eternal optimism in the American people.

That thought came into my head when we were all standing at the Reagan Library last Wednesday. President Reagan was good for America because he was an optimist.

Sadly, the debate taking place in the Republican party today is not focused on that optimistic view of America. Instead, it has drifted into personal attacks.

In the end, I believe that voters want to be for something and not against someone. Instead of talking about how bad things are, we want to hear about how we can make them better for everyone.

We need to get back to the basics of our party:

We are the party that believes that people create jobs – not the government – and the best way to grow the economy is to get the government out of the way and build it from the ground up.

We are the party that believes that the way to measure success in government is by how many people are no longer dependent on the government – because we ultimately believe in the dignity of work.

We are the party that believes that a strong military leads to peace through strength and that will protect our children and future generations – we believe that good will triumph over evil.

We are the party that believes in the American people – and not the federal government.

These ideas will help us win the election next fall and – more importantly – these ideas will help make our country great again.

To refocus the debate will require leadership. While I was sitting in church yesterday, the pastor’s words reminded me that the Bible is full of stories about people who were called to be leaders in unusual ways.

Today, I believe that I am being called to lead by helping to clear the race so that a positive conservative message can rise to the top of the field. With that in mind, I will suspend my campaign immediately.

I encourage other Republican presidential candidates to consider doing the same so the voters can focus on a limited number of candidates who can offer a positive conservative alternative to the current frontrunner. This is fundamentally important to the future of the party and – ultimately – to the future of our country.

This is a difficult decision as so many wonderful people stepped up to support our efforts. Tonette and I are so very thankful for the many outstanding volunteers and the excellent staff who helped us throughout the campaign. You have become like family to us.

And speaking of family, I want to personally thank my wife Tonette – who has been a rock – as well as our amazing sons Matt and Alex. I thank my parents, my brother David and his family – and all of our other family and friends for their love and support.

Most of all, I want to thank God for His abundant grace. Win or lose, it is more than enough for any of us.

Thank you.

I'm disappointed to see Walker go (I had been leaning his direction), but I definitely agree with his sentiment that the field needs to start clearing. There are too many candidates, and we need to start coalescing around someone that can beat both Jeb Bush and Donald Trump.

We now have 15 Republicans running for President (links go to the candidate's official website): Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump.

My thoughts on the first GOP debate

Thursday night's debate was a record setter, drawing an estimated viewing audience of over 24 million people. That makes it "the highest-rated primary debate in television history as well as the highest-rated non-sports cable telecast of all time in total viewers."

I didn't get to watch the debate live, but did get to view it last night online. Overall, it was a good debate; I couldn't really pick out a clear winner. Here are my thoughts in order of poll ranking, along with the amount of speaking time each candidate got.

Donald Trump (10:31)
Trump was entertaining, as expected. Performance-wise, it was very mixed. He doesn't have a good response for much of his past liberal views and record, and has a tendency to disdain questions (and questioners). He hit the right notes at some points, but lacks depth on policy and a conservative philosophy. Do we really want a nominee who boasts that he buys politicians?

Jeb Bush (8:47)
Bush seemed a bit scattered. He stumbled over several of his answers, and came across unprepared (or perhaps rusty). So much for the "shock and awe" he was supposed to bring as front runner. He may have the money, but if he performs in future debates like he did in this one, money won't be enough to save his campaign.

Scott Walker (5:55)
Walker did well when he spoke, but it seemed to take a little bit for him to warm up. It was a good performance; not great, but he didn't hurt himself.

Mike Huckabee (6:50)
I felt that Huckabee's debate performance was strong. He's a natural on the stage, and is quicker on his feet and more articulate in his answers than just about any of the other candidates.

Ben Carson (6:36)
At some points in the debate, Carson looked like he felt out of place. At other points, he had some great moments. With his calm, soft-spoken manner, it's easy for him to get lost in the crowd, but I think he did well, overall.

Ted Cruz (6:43)
I was surprised by how slowly Cruz spoke during the debate (slowest words-per minute in the field), which kind of limited how much he could get in, and he had the largest silent spell of the candidates. Otherwise, he had a solid performance, particularly at the closing.

Marco Rubio (6:44)
Rubio probably had the best performance. He's smooth on his feet, articulate, likable, and never seemed to be searching for his answer. He also came across genuine and heartfelt. There really wasn't a bad point for him during the debate.

Rand Paul (5:00)
Paul tried a little too hard to be aggressive. He came across petulant and irritable, particularly in his exchange with Christie over NSA surveillance. It was eerily reminiscent of Rudy Giuliani's spats with Ron Paul in the 2008 debates, which is not a good thing. It's one thing to try to stand out in a crowded field, but Rand went about it the wrong way.

Chris Christie (6:11)
Christie's big moment was his tangle with Rand Paul. While he didn't come across as petty as Rand did, I don't think he necessarily emerged a clear winner out of it. He did have a bright spot in the exchange with Huckabee on entitlements; it's a major issue, but few want to even discuss it. I don't think he gets any bump out of the debate, but he didn't cause himself irreparable harm.

John Kasich (6:56)
This was Kasich's first big opportunity to introduce himself to voters, and I think he did so-so. His attempts to connect with average middle-class voters ("my dad was a mailman" comments) seemed forced and inauthentic. He didn't fall on his face, but I don't think he gained any ground, which he needed to do. In some respects, he was helped by the home-field advantage with the debate audience.


Helped

• Marco Rubio
• Mike Huckabee
• Ted Cruz
• Ben Carson

Neither helped nor hurt

• Scott Walker
• Chris Christie
• John Kasich

Hurt

• Jeb Bush
• Donald Trump
• Rand Paul

With ten candidates on the stage (not even counting the seven that didn't make it on), it was difficult for most of them to be able to speak enough to make a big impact.

I thought some of the questions were dumb, and a lot of them were intended to start some on-stage squabbling, but compared to debates in previous elections, I thought this was one of the best.

Comment with your thoughts. Did you miss the debate? Watch online here, or embedded below:

#16: John Kasich launches presidential campaign

This morning, Ohio Governor John Kasich launched his presidential campaign, becoming the 16th major Republican candidate to announce.

Here's his announcement speech:



An interesting point about Kasich is that he is angling for the centrist/moderate wing of the party, much like Jon Huntsman did in 2012 (Kasich hired most of Huntsman's former campaign team), and John McCain did in 2000. Another similar tie between those three is that like Huntsman and McCain, Kasich is making New Hampshire his "do-or-die" state.


Kasich joins 15 other Republicans running for President (links go to the candidate's official website): Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, Donald Trump, and Scott Walker .

16 in '16: My thoughts on the GOP field so far

16 in '16 -- the GOP candidates

The presidential race is starting to heat up, and it's definitely going to be interesting to watch. Here are some thoughts on how I'm leaning at this stage of the race.

We've got 16 major candidates on the GOP side of things. I'll try to list them in order of my preference:


LEANING TOWARD

• Scott Walker
• Ted Cruz
• Bobby Jindal
• Rand Paul

OPEN TO

• Marco Rubio
• Rick Perry
• Mike Huckabee
• Ben Carson
• Rick Santorum

RULED OUT

• Carly Fiorina
• Donald Trump
• Chris Christie
• John Kasich
• George Pataki
• Lindsey Graham
• Jeb Bush

This is roughly the order of my current preference. It's not how I view the candidate rankings in order of their chance at the nomination (that list would look quite different).

The further down the list, the more reservations I have about the candidates. As you can see, I've already marked off about half of the field. Fiorina ran for Senate in California as a more moderate candidate than she currently is presenting herself as. Christie, Kasich and Pataki are on the more moderate end of the GOP spectrum, Trump has been all over the place politically speaking (past Democrat and Clinton donor, left-leaning policy positions, etc), Graham has been on the wrong side of far too many issues in the Senate, and Bush... too many problems there to go into, least of which is his last name.

That takes care of the "ruled out" category. Now moving to Tier 2, working from the bottom on up.

Although he wasn't my first choice, I voted for Santorum in 2012. Santorum became the "conservative champion" by default, even though his record in the Senate was not the most conservative. He simply was the last man standing who had a shot at beating Romney. The only way he gets my vote again is if by some miracle/catastrophe he becomes the last option other than, say, Jeb Bush.

Ben Carson has a fantastic personal story to tell, and I think he would play very well in a general election. However, I am concerned with his inexperience with governing, as well as some of his public positions on issues like the 2nd Amendment.

The first vote I ever cast was for Mike Huckabee in 2008. His was the first presidential campaign I really got involved in. I donated, I made phone calls to several different states, and I waved signs, among other things. I still have a soft spot for Mike, but he's made some missteps since 2008, and there are so many good options this year.

Rick Perry had, for the most part, a great record as governor of Texas. He has an advantage over Huckabee and some of the others on this list due to how recently he was in office (left in January of 2015, as opposed to 2007 or earlier). Most candidates would kill for a record like his, but there's a gap between Perry on paper and Perry on the campaign trail.

I appreciate Marco Rubio's dedication in running for president. Some candidates, both now and in the past, have run for president while simultaneously seeking the office they currently hold. Rubio doesn't think that's right, and neither do I. He has a generally good record in the Senate, and would be a great, forward-looking face for the GOP. More than anyone else, Rubio almost makes it in my top tier.

Now for the ones I'm most seriously considering.

Rand Paul appeals to me primarily on a fiscal front. I'm not as sold on some of his foreign and social policies, though much more comfortable with his than with his dad's. Nobody running for president would be as good on fiscal issues as Rand. However, there are a few others that are more well-rounded for my taste. That being said, I think Rand can appeal to some new audiences for the GOP, and I would generally be very happy with a Rand Paul presidency.

Bobby Jindal is an under-appreciated governor. I don't know how his campaign will play out, or if he will gain traction, but he definitely deserves a look. From a policy standpoint, he's extremely intelligent and reform-minded (he's the biggest policy wonk in the field). He's got a great record at that. He's just plagued with a state (Louisiana) that hasn't appreciated that.

Ted Cruz hits all the right buttons. He says the right things, votes the right way, rubs the DC establishment the wrong (or rather, right) way, is articulate and quick on his feet when faced with a hostile media (in other words, every interview he gets). However, I've not heard or read much about his authoring major legislation. Rand Paul has offered alternate budgets, Marco Rubio a tax plan, Coburn had "Back in Black", Bobby Jindal has a healthcare plan, but I don't recall Ted Cruz having offered something like that (other than repealing ObamaCare). Derailing bad legislation is needed, but we also need good alternatives.

Scott Walker is probably in the lead (narrowly) for me right now. He's got a good record as governor, in a very difficult state for a conservative Republican. He beat the Democratic/union machine three times in four years -- a remarkable feat, given that Wisconsin hasn't voted for a Republican presidential nominee since 1984. As Governor, he's led on tough reforms, and won. He has executive experience that a Senator simply doesn't have, and that would be helpful as President.


That's where I'm at right now. You have to admit, we have some fantastic choices this election. Out of 16 candidates, there are nine I'd be happy with, and four or five I'd be thrilled at. The debates begin on August 6th, and voting starts in less than seven months. Buckle up, the ride is about to start!