2nd District Candidate Ranking: 3rd Edition

The Muskogee Politico's 2nd District Candidate Ranking
Post-1st Quarter FEC Reports

With the close of the 2010 1st Quarter FEC reports, it's once again time for the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. This is the third in the GOP candidate ranking series. The original ranking can be viewed here, with the second located here. This is not to be construed as an endorsement of a specific candidate by this blog - merely my view of the race as it currently stands.

And now, without further ado, I present the latest installment of the 2nd District Candidate Ranking from the Muskogee Politico.

1. Daniel Edmonds (prev. 2nd)


I see Daniel Edmonds as having taken the top spot this past quarter.

Public Policy Polling conducted a poll of the 2nd District race, and Edmonds came out as the best Republican when compared to incumbent Congressman Dan Boren (D). He was 16 points down to Boren, as opposed to 20 points (Thompson), 22 points (Houchen), and 27 points (Arnett). You can see more information on that poll here.

Edmonds still seems to be the candidate that can have the broadest appeal to conservative Democrats - a must for winning in this heavily Democratic district.

If this ranking was based solely on raising money, Edmonds would not be ranked first. His fundraising has been poor, a factor that has affected all candidates in this race (except Boren).

However, Edmonds looks to be getting the most bang for his buck; his campaign appears to be the most frugal and effective. He set the standard among his competitors for campaign literature, sparking the rest to get much more professional materials.

In my discussions with Republicans across the district, Edmonds gets the broadest support. That wasn't the case earlier in the campaign, but it seems to be growing steadily now, as activists and voters get to know the candidates.

Edmonds still needs to find a way to raise funds. If he can be in the lead with what little he has now, he could do much better with a good war-chest.


2. Howard Houchen (prev. 1st)

Howard Houchen, after a quick start, has seemed to cool among the Republican electorate.

The latest FEC reports show that Houchen raised slightly over $20,000 in the last quarter - a modest, but respectable sum for a challenger in circumstances like these. His showing was the highest of the Republican challengers to this point. He currently has $9,309 cash on hand - $4,000 more than the nearest Republican competitor.

Houchen is a very aggressive candidate, which will give some voters hesitation, while appealing to others. The Ron Paul/libertarian community seems to be rallying around Houchen in particular, which again, may alienate some people.

He has shown what I find to be a fairly minor lapse in judgment by joining any and every group out there that asks him to (such as Bring Home the Politicians, which aims to hold Congress from every state capitol via teleconference, as opposed to physically meeting in Washington at the Capitol). I find the group's idea to be a bad one, for many reasons.

He's also doing a bit of negative campaigning (in relation to Dan Boren) that I don't care for. It's one thing to attack a person's record, but outlandish caricatures are out of taste, in my opinion. One of the things I hear regularly about Howard is that he consistently goes over the time allotted to him to speak at meetings - something that several other candidates also do.

On the other hand, Houchen is having the most success of the GOP candidates in raising money, even though he does seem to be burning through it pretty fast. He has run some radio ads, as well as some recent cable TV ads. It's still probably too early for any of that to be effective, and the actual ads themselves aren't the best, design-wise. But, he is the only candidate to have done either at this point.

Houchen needs to appeal to a broader group of voters, and find a way to not alienate potential supporters. He is still very much in the running for the lead. This race will remain fluid until someone emerges as the clear leader.

3. Charles Thompson (prev. 3rd)

Charles Thompson continues to make moves, although he does not advance in this ranking. Thompson put his toe in the water back in June, dropped out a week later, and decided to get back in sometime in early September.

He filed a report with the FEC this past quarter, reporting about $15,000 raised (although almost $10,000 was in-kind donations). I do have questions about his report - some items may not follow FEC rules.

Thompson does seem to be having the most success at generating volunteers. His military background is attractive to many voters.

However, Thompson has a tendency to trot out ideas that are... ill-advised. For instance, this one on constituent contact. He has called for, in campaign emails, the banning of Islam in the United States, as well as mandating that former Representatives live in their district for the same amount of time they represented the district - in order to live under the laws they passed. As with Houchen, Charles has a hard time keeping to time limits while speaking.

If Thompson can start to raise funds, as well as keep from making more of these mistakes, he can really start to make some waves in this race.


4. Dan Arnett (prev. 4th)

Although Dan Arnett had some influence on this race at the very beginning (I see him as one of the reasons that Congressman Boren actually held town halls), I see his impact dwindling.

Arnett has transferred from law school in Pennsylvania to the University of Tulsa, which has helped him to be more visible across the district. However, folks that I have talked with aren't sold on supporting him with the three aforementioned candidates in the race. I don't see his support base growing in the way it is for the other candidates.

Of the Republican candidates at the time, he performed the worst in the PPP poll that took place at the end of February. As with Houchen and Thompson, Arnett has trouble staying within time limits while speaking, sometimes even speaking for twice as long as he was given.

Arnett is going to have a difficult time convincing voters to join his camp, especially since he isn't raising money or generating as much interest as the other candidates. With some 40 days left until the filing period begins, Arnett has to either make some moves, or make some tough decisions.

5. Miki Booth (prev. not on list)

Miki Booth originally entered the race as an Independent, but decided to switch to Republican in early April. The fact that she took 7-8% of the vote as an Independent in the PPP poll probably had an impact on her decision.

Booth is most well-known for her "Birther" stance. Her position on other issues always takes second place to talking about President Obama's birth certificate, or lack thereof.

She will not be an impact on this race, and will only take single digits of the vote in July.



And that is the 3rd edition of the Muskogee Politico 2nd District Candidate Ranking. Keep an eye here for the latest news and developments for this race.

2nd District Update: Booth Switches to Republican

The Republican field of candidate for the 2nd Congressional District has officially become even more crowded. Miki Booth, originally an Independent candidate, has thrown her hat in the ring for the GOP nomination:

MIKI BOOTH SAYS REPUBLICANS CAN MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO OR “GO THE DISTANCE” TO UPHOLD THE CONSTITUTION

I am among a large contingent of Americans who are fed up with the politics of both parties and changed affiliation to Independent or none.

In January I threw my hat into the political ring by registering to run originally as an Independent candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives in District 2 Oklahoma, the seat currently held by Dan Boren.

There are four Republicans who will be on the primary election ballot, and as of this past Friday, I became the fifth by announcing my decision to return to the Republican party. And as of today, the change is reflected on the Federal Election Commission website.

Last Saturday, March 20, was a critical day for America. Thousands answered the “Code Red” call to get to our nation’s capital to protest the massive entitlement bill that we cannot afford and most Americans don’t want. This massive 2,000-page monstrosity being hawked as “healthcare reform” is nothing more than a government takeover of one-sixth of our economy and heavily laced with “goodies” and paybacks to Democrats in Congress, their allies and supporters.

I was one of the 40,000 or so Americans who stood outside the Capitol building shouting “Kill the Bill!” and “USA!” We don’t want our country turning into a socialist nation, and yet this is where we are rapidly heading under the dictates of Obama’s regime and a far-left “progressive” Congress. It made no difference that people from all 50 states, including a group of us from Oklahoma who drove 1,300 miles non-stop to make a last plea to stop the takeover, as we ultimately lost the healthcare battle.

But we haven’t lost entirely. All indications are good for conservatives to reclaim the Senate and House in November, but party politics could ruin our chances if Republicans don’t change the way they do business. And by this I mean it’s less about money than it is adhering to the Constitution as the Law of the Land: the difference between attending a $100 a plate fund-raising dinner in Muskogee or driving 1,300 miles non-stop to defend the Constitution of the United States of America.

Respectfully submitted,

Miki Booth
Candidate for U.S. House of Representatives
Wyandotte, OK

As an Independent candidate, Booth placed an emphasis on the "birther" controversy over Barack Obama's birth certificate.

In the recent Public Policy Polling survey of the district, Booth received between 7% and 8% as an Independent candidate - perhaps some incentive to join the race as a Republican. We will see whether or not Booth will have an impact on the race.

She joins Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, Howard Houchen and Charles Thompson in the race for the Republican Party nomination.

PPP 2nd District Poll Analysis

As promised, here's a more detailed look at the results from the Public Policy Polling survey of the 2nd District race.

I'll just start at the beginning, and give my commentary as we go down. You can "follow along" on this pdf if you like - I won't cover everything, and there's some fascinating stuff in these crosstabs.

For starters, 8% of the respondents identify as liberals, 45% as moderates, and 47% as conservatives. 55% call themselves Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 11% Independents.

Obama

President Obama gets a 27% approval rating, and a 65% disapproval. Not terribly surprising, since he lost this district by a somewhat similar margin. However, 20% of 2008 Obama voters disapprove. Liberals approve by a 2-1 margin, but he loses moderates (40-51) and conservatives (10-85). 47% of Democrats disapprove, while 42% approve. Republicans and Independents are overwhelmingly disapproving. Another interesting item: voters are slightly more approving the older they get - his worst approval rating (20%) is with 18-29 year-olds, and his best is with senior citizens (31%).

Boren

Congressman Boren gets a 51/33 approval rating, virtually identical percentages among McCain and Obama voters. He gets slightly higher approval among conservatives (46/38) than he does liberals (43/38), but moderates are higher (57/27). While there was no significant difference among gender in Obama's approval, woman are very approving of Boren (52/26), while men are mixed (49/40). Democrats approve on a 55/27 split, Republicans somewhat approve (47/38), but independents are divided (40/43).

11% of poll respondents consider Boren to be too conservative, 31% say he's too liberal, and 45% says he's just about right.

I fully expected Boren to be over 50% - in fact, I half-thought he'd be at or around 60%. For him to be in the mid- to upper-40s (as you will see below) surprised me. Could he be vulnerable? The odds are still long at defeating him, but it can't be put completely out of the question, especially if the Republican nominee can improve his own name recognition percentages.

Health Care

17% approve of the health care bill passed by the House in November, while 61% disapprove. Liberals approve (54/34), but moderates (26/43) and conservatives (2/82) don't. Democrats (29/42), Republicans (2/86) and Independents (5/78) all disapprove.

32% think that Boren voted for the health care bill, but only 30% actually get it right, and say that he voted against it.

Arnett vs. Boren

Dan Arnett was the poorest performer against Boren, attracting only 22% of the vote against Boren's 49% - a 27 point deficit. These were the lowest and the highest numbers for the respective candidates. Independent Miki Booth received 7%, and 22% were undecided.

Arnett lost McCain voters to Boren 33-39, barely won conservatives (33-32), and got the lowest marks among moderates (10%) and liberals (12%). He also got the lowest marks among Republicans (42%) and Independents (19%).

This poll was obviously not kind to Arnett, who seems to be struggling more so than the other candidates to gain traction.

Houchen vs. Boren

Howard Houchen surprisingly had the second-worst performance, earning 26% to Boren's 48%, a 22 point deficit. Booth again received 7% of the vote.

Houchen edged out Boren in McCain voters 39-36. He gets the highest mark (ties the highest spread) in conservatives, beating Boren 43-29. He has the second-best performance among Republicans (51%), and the best showing among Independents, beating Boren 27-25.

This wasn't the best news for Houchen, as he has widely been considered the frontrunner (he's placed first in both of our candidates rankings to date). It's also by no means crushing information, but it's not great, either. I was, frankly, surprised at his showing.

Thompson vs. Boren

Charles Thompson had the second-best showing in this poll, getting 25% of the vote to Boren's 45% - a 20 point deficit. Booth received 8% this time.

Thompson won McCain voters 38-33. He came in second of the GOP candidates among liberals (20%) and third among conservatives, beating Boren 39-28. He was tied for first among Democrats (12%), third among Republicans (48%), and second in Independents (25%) - tied with Boren.

This has to be encouraging news for Thompson, the latest entry into this race. His numbers surprised me, as I fully expected him to be either third or fourth.

Edmonds vs. Boren

Daniel Edmonds comes out as the big winner in this poll, garnering 28% of the vote compared to Boren's 44% - a 16 point deficit. This is by far the best Republican performance, being the highest and the lowest percentages for the respective candidates. Booth again received 8%.

Edmonds received the highest percentage of McCain voters, beating Boren 42-33. He got the most of the GOP candidates among liberals (23%) and moderates (15%), and came in a close second among conservatives, beating Boren 42%-28% (tied for the highest spread). He tied for most Democrat supporters (12%), was the clear leader among Republicans (56%), and came in third in Independents (23%). He also did best among female voters (26%), and was in a three-way tie on male voters (31%).

This poll placed Edmonds as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary - great news for his campaign. As well as he did, it would seem logical that he would have the best shot at swaying those undecideds away from Boren, and to him. Now, will he be able to transform this into greater fundraising figures?

Miki Booth

Miki Booth is running as an Independent, although there are rumors that she's switching to run as a Republican now. She's probably most well known for her outspokenness on the Obama birth certificate controversy - arguably her most talked about issue. Still, even as a 'birther' candidate, there were very interesting tidbits in this poll.

Booth received 7% or 8% in every single matchup, drawing equal percentages from McCain voters and Obama voters. This tells me that those are the people that refuse to vote for either a Republican or a Democrat candidate.

What's intriguing is that she draws 5%-8% of conservatives and moderates, while getting 14% of liberals in the Boren/Arnett matchup, 20% in the Boren/Edmonds grouping, 23% against Boren and Thompson, and 24% in the Boren/Houchen pairing. This is especially interesting given her 'birther' stand - another indication that her voters don't know (or care) what she stands for, only that she's not a Republican or a Democrat.

She draws 5% of Democrats in all the matchups, 8%-12% of Republicans, 10%-19% of Independents. She also does 3-6 points better among minorities than she does among whites, and does better among 18-29 year-olds and seniors citizens.

Conclusion

The winners in this poll are Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson. The results were very encouraging for them.

The losers are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Dan Boren. For Arnett, this has to be either a shape-up signal or a get-out-of-the-race call. For Houchen, it's a little embarrassing, given his perceived front-runner status. Boren should be disappointed at his somewhat unimpressive lead, as someone of his establishment should have performed better. This more than likely will shape up to be his toughest political climate ever.

Given that this poll has shown some possible vulnerability for Boren, the Republican candidates need to seriously consider whether or not they belong in the race. With four (and possibly more) candidates running, the likelihood of the race going to a runoff is fairly high. A runoff would essentially ruin a Republican candidate's chances, as valuable and hard-to-come-by resources would be wasted.

We remain committed to reporting the latest developments in this race. Keep an eye, and a mouse-click, on the Muskogee Politico blog!

PPP Poll: Edmonds Best Against Boren

Partly due to our efforts here at the Muskogee Politico blog, Public Policy Polling polled the 2nd District Congressional race this past weekend. The results were somewhat surprising.

PPP 2010 2nd District Congressional Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - pdf)

• Dan Boren (D) - 49%
• Dan Arnett (R) - 22%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 22%

Boren leads Arnett by 27%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 44%
• Daniel Edmonds (R) - 28%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 20%

Boren leads Edmonds by 16%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 48%
• Howard Houchen (R) - 26%
• Miki Booth (I) - 7%
• Undecided - 19%

Boren leads Houchen by 22%.

• Dan Boren (D) - 45%
• Charles Thompson (R) - 25%
• Miki Booth (I) - 8%
• Undecided - 21%

Boren leads Thompson by 20%.

Poll of 664 voters, February 26-28, with a MoE of 3.8%

Congressman Dan Boren holds substantial leads over potential Republican and Independent challengers, but smaller than one might expect, given his previous electoral performances (66%, 73%, and 70%, respectively). I was surprised that he was under 50%, myself.

Daniel Edmonds held him to 44%, Boren's worst performance, and got 28% in the poll, the highest performance. The ther candidates (Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson) were well outside the margin of error from Edmonds' showing against Boren.

Independent 'birther' candidate Miki Booth received 7-8% in each poll.

More analysis to come later [Update: click here for analysis]. For now, here are the results.