Election Predictions: here's mine -- leave yours!

Let's have another go at this. 270toWin.com has a neat feature that allows you to customize your predictions from the presidential race down to control of the state legislatures. I'm not a prophet nor the son of a prophet (Amos 7:14), but we can have a little fun together with election guesses.

How do you think the election will go? Drop your own Presidential,  U.S. Senate and Oklahoma predictions in the comments section, on the Muskogee Politico Facebook page, or on Twitter (aka X).

Election Predictions: here's mine -- leave yours!

Here are my admittedly optimistic election predictions. Drop yours in the comments, or on the Muskogee Politico Facebook page.

Here's how I think the Presidential race and U.S. Senate will go

Let's have a go at this. 270toWin.com has a neat feature that allows you to customize your predictions from the presidential race down to control of the state legislatures.

Whether I'm any good at this or not, only time will tell. For the record, I did nail the 2008 GOP Iowa Caucus back in 2008 (a few months before I started this blog), but my predictions since then have been, well, hit and miss! I thought McCain was going to beat Obama, and that Clinton would beat Trump. I've been better on state races, but this part really is more for "fun" and pure guesswork. 

Here goes.

Last week, I pretty much thought Trump was a goner. I feel somewhat more optimistic now. He has to thread the needle, run the table in a host of toss-up/lean-Democratic states, but I think it's doable. I even think there's an outside chance (on this outside chance) that he could do the below map, plus win one of either Michigan, Minnesota, or Nevada.

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Now for the U.S. Senate. I think, overall, the Republicans will lose two seats but hang on to the majority by the slimmest of margins:

Insiders Panel: bullish on Bice and Trump's odds, don't expect a Trump 77-county sweep

With the general election tomorrow, here's one last edition of the MuskogeePolitico.com Insiders Panel.

Members of our Insiders Panel cover the spectrum on the Republican side of the aisle, and members are from the private, public, and political sectors from all across the state. Each congressional district is represented by an Insider, and there is a wide demographic variety. The anonymity of the panel is designed to allow them to more freely express their thoughts, giving an inside look at some behind the scenes moves and trends across the state. You can read the past Insiders Panel discussions at this link.

These are the questions panel members were asked to respond to:

1. Will Stephanie Bice (R) take out Congresswoman Kendra Horn (D) in the 5th Congressional District?
2. Not considering the 5th District race, what will be the biggest surprise in the Oklahoma results?
3. Will President Donald Trump once again carry all 77 counties?
4. Who do you think wins the Presidency, and what is your guess at the electoral college vote?
5. Will the GOP hold onto the U.S. Senate?

My 2016 Election Predictions

It's election eve, so time for some predictions.

Presidential race: 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

Trump pulls out wins in North Carolina, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and Maine's 2nd Congressional District, but falls barely short in Florida, Colorado, and Pennsylvania. Michigan and New Mexico are also closer than expected, but Clinton wins them both.

Results: Clinton 297 electoral votes (49.9% popular vote), Trump 241 EVs (45.4%), Johnson 2.9%, Stein 0.9%, McMullin 0.4% (also gets 2nd place in Utah), all others combine for 0.5%.

I was a little too optimistic with McCain and Romney, so we'll see how this time goes. I honestly could see it going either way. There are even 269-269 tie scenarios that are plausible, though highly unlikely.

U.S. Senate:
Republicans Kirk (IL), Toomey (PA) and Johnson (WI) lose, but the NV seat goes red. Republicans maintain a slim majority, 52R/48D.

U.S. House:
Republicans maintain their majority, losing only about 10 seats. 237R/198D.

State House:
Republicans pick up Democrat-held seats in HD3 (LeFlore County), HD4 (Cherokee County), HD12 (Wagoner County), HD13 (Muskogee/McIntosh counties), and HD16 (Okmulgee/Muskogee/Wagoner/Tulsa counties). Democrats pick up Republican-held seats in HD26 (Shawnee area), HD87 (OKC), and HD93 (OKC). Net GOP gain of two seats makes it 73R/28D.

State Senate: 
Republicans pick up Democrat-held seats in SD9 (Muskogee/Tahlequah) and SD13 (Ada area), while losing SD39 (Tulsa). Net GOP gain of one returns it to 40R/8D.

State Questions: all pass 
SQ776 - passes 79%-21%
SQ777 - incredible rural strength beats urban doubts, passes 53%-47%
SQ779 - the too-late campaign against fails to stop it, passes 59%-41%
SQ780 - passes 69%-31%
SQ781 - passes 66%-34%
SQ790 - confusion about the measure makes it fairly close, passes 55%-45%
SQ792 - passes 63%-37%


Those are my unscientific thoughts on the final results. Leave a comment with yours.

My Primary Election Predictions

With the polls closing in a few minutes, here are my predictions/guesses on how the voting will shake out.

U.S. Senate (unexpired term): Lankford 51%, Shannon 39%, Brogdon 6%, all others 4% (in this order: Crow, Weger, McCray, Craig) -- NO RUNOFF
U.S. Senate (full term): Inhofe over 75%
Governor: Fallin 65%, Ewbank 20%, Moody 15%
State Superintendent: Hofmeister 49%, Barresi 36%, Kelly 15% -- RUNOFF
Insurance Commissioner: Doak 78%, Viner 22%
Corporation Commissioner: Hiett 54%, Branan 46%

U.S. House (District 2): Mullin 63%, Robertson 37%
U.S. House (District 3): Lucas 62%, Hubbard 30%, Murray 8%
U.S. House (District 4): Cole 69%, Flatt 31%
U.S. House (District 5): Russell 25%, Douglas 22%, Turner 18%, Jolley 17%, Sparks 10%, Jett 8% -- RUNOFF

DEMOCRATS
U.S. Senate (unexpired term): Jim Rogers wins, but it goes to a runoff with Connie Johnson.
State Superintendent: Freda Deskin wins, but goes to runoff with John Cox.
U.S. House (District 5): Guild wins, goes to runoff with McAffrey.

Election 2010: My Predictions

Election 2010 has finally arrived. All of the door-knocking, pie suppers, campaign signs, robocalls and negative ads are ending in just a few short hours.

The election polls will be shortly replaced with The Actual Election Polls. All of the guessing and predicting and assumptions will be replaced with cold hard facts about who won and who lost. Well, barring another Florida '00/Minnesota '08 recount ordeal.

So, since everyone is issuing their pre-election predictions, I finally have gotten around to posting my own thoughts.

U.S. Senate: Tom Coburn wins with his largest margin ever - and finally wins his home Muskogee County. Coburn takes 70%-75%.
U.S. House, District 1: John Sullivan, facing only an Independent, coasts to re-election, receiving over 80%.
U.S. House, District 2: Dan Boren remains the lone Oklahoma Democrat in Congress, but Charles Thompson rides enough of the anti-Democrat sentiment to keep Boren just under sixty percent. Boren 59%, Thompson 41%.
U.S. House, District 3: Frank Lucas easily wins, gets around 75%.
U.S. House, District 5: James Lankford becomes Oklahoma's newest Congressman. Lankford with just over 60%.
Governor: Mary Fallin wins, albeit with a lower percentage than the polls had shown. Fallin 56%, Askins 44%.
Lieutenant Governor: Todd Lamb beats Kenneth Corn, 58%-39%-3%.
State Auditor: Gary Jones ekes out a win (finally!) - riding the Republican tidal wave to success. Jones with 54%.
Attorney General: Scott Pruitt wins, but with a lower percentage than he would have had if the election were held in September. Pruitt 59%, Priest 41%.
State Superintendent: Janet Barresi holds on to defeat Susan Paddack. 56%-40%-4%.
State Treasurer: Ken Miller wins easily, 65%-35%.
Labor Commissioner: Mark Costello beats incumbent Lloyd Fields, 61%-39%.
Insurance Commissioner: Kim Holland holds on in the closest of the races. Holland 51%, Doak 49%. Holland staves off a GOP sweep of statewide offices.
State House: GOP picks up seven seats (Bennett in HD2, Burmeier in HD18, Roberts in HD21, Smith in HD34, Vaughan in HD37, Stiles in HD45, McKay in HD78). State House now becomes 69-32.
State Senate: GOP gains at least four seats (Brecheen in SD6, Fields in SD10, Simpson in SD14, David in SD18) to make the State Senate 30-18. Possible pickups, or at least close races, in SD8, SD16, and SD44.

SQ744: Fails; 38-62.
SQ746: Passes; 77-23.
SQ747: Passes; 78-22.
SQ748: Passes; 61-39.
SQ750: Passes; 55-45.
SQ751: Passes; 84-16.
SQ752: Passes; 60-40.
SQ754: Fails; 48-52.
SQ755: Passes; 67-33.
SQ756: Passes; 71-29.
SQ757: Passes; 56-44.

And for pure "step-out-on-a-limb"-ness, the anti-politician/incumbent tide sweeps at least one statewide judge out of office. Who knows -- it could happen!

A big story in Oklahoma is the emergence of the GOP in eastern Oklahoma (or rather, as contained in the 2nd Congressional District), as Republicans win three House seats (HD2, HD18 and HD21) and two Senate seats (SD6 and SD18).

U.S. Senate: GOP gains 10 seats (AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, NV, PA, WA, WI, WV), but only after a few weeks of recounts in races like Washington, West Virginia and Nevada. Christine O'Donnell cuts it close, but not close enough. Barbara Boxer manages another win. Linda McMahon is a disappointment for the GOP in Connecticut. GOP leads 51 to 47+2.

U.S. House: GOP takes the House, getting between 55 and 65 new seats.

Governorships: GOP gains 10 governorships (gaining IA, KS, MA, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, WY and losing HI, MN). Lincoln Chafee (I-RI) wins, so the total is 33 Republicans to 16 Democrats to 1 Independent.


These are my pre-election (and post-midnight!) thoughts; post yours in the comments.

RNC Race: The Blackwell Surprise

RNC Chair candidate Ken Blackwell, whom we first mentioned when OKGOP Chairman Gary Jones endorsed him, continues to gain heavy-weight endorsements in his bid. Today, Blackwell announced a whole slew of new supporters. Here's the press release:

Conservative Leaders Endorse Ken Blackwell for RNC C

A broad cross-section of American conservative economic, social and foreign policy leaders has endorsed the candidacy of former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell for chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC).

The election will be at an RNC meeting in D.C. January 28-31.

A meeting of conservative leaders, gathered by the Council for National Policy on November 13, asked Virginia Republican National Committeeman Morton Blackwell (no relation to Ken Blackwell) to prepare and distribute a list of questions for the RNC chairmanship candidates.

All six active candidates, Saul Anuzis of Michigan, Ken Blackwell of Ohio, Katon Dawson of South Carolina, Mike Duncan of Kentucky, John “Chip” Saltsman of Tennessee, and Michael Steele of Maryland, answered the questions. The 37 questions and the six candidates’ answers are posted on the website Townhall.com.

After a review on January 2 of the candidates’ answers and a discussion of their other qualifications, the conservative leaders listed below announced their support of Ken Blackwell and urged the 168 members of the RNC to elect him at their late-January meeting.

Their organizational affiliations are provided for identification only.

The conservative endorsers noted that there were other good candidates, but all agreed that Ken Blackwell is the best choice. They intend to contact grassroots conservatives across the country and ask them to urge the three RNC members from each state and U.S. territory to vote for Ken Blackwell for RNC chairman.

Gary Aldrich, Chairman, CNP Action, Inc.
MORTON C. BLACKWELL, Virginia Republican National Committeeman
Robert B. Bluey, Contributing Editor, RedState
L. Brent Bozell, Founder and President, Media Research Center
Kellyanne Conway, CEO and President, the polling company, inc./WomanTrend

T. Kenneth Cribb, Jr., Former Domestic Advisor to President Reagan
JAMES C. DOBSON, Ph.D., FOUNDER & CHAIRMAN, FOCUS ON THE FAMILY
Becky Norton Dunlop, President, Council for National Policy
Stuart W. Epperson, Chairman, Salem Communications Corporation
STEVE FORBERS, CHAIRMAN & CEO, FORBES MEDIA

Dr. Ronald Godwin, Vice Chancellor, Liberty University
Rebecca Hagelin, Author and Conservative Columnist
Colin Hanna, President, Let Freedom Ring
DAVID KEEN, Chairman, American Conservative Union
Tim LaHaye, Founder and President, Tim LaHaye Ministries

ED MEESE, PAST PRESIDENT, COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL POLICY
James C. Miller, Past President, Council for National Policy
TONY PERKINS, PRESIDENT, FAMILY RESEARCH COUNCIL
Ken Raasch, Chairman & CEO, Creative Brands Group
Alfred S. Regnery, Publisher, The American Spectator

PHYLLIS SCHLAFLY, PRESIDENT, EAGLE FORUM
PAT TOOMEY, PRESIDENT, CLUB FOR GROWTH
Richard Viguerie, Chairman, ConservativeHQ.com

[all-caps emphasis are mine; major endorsements]

Blackwell has gathered so many influential supporters, as well as the most publicly announced Republican National Committee members, that any other candidate will have a hard time beating Ken Blackwell.

From what I'm seeing and hearing, this is Ken Blackwell's race to lose. I'm predicting a Blackwell victory come February.

Election Day

And it begins...

I will be waving signs for most of the day, and will not be able to update the blog more than likely. Keep an eye on those election returns! Remember, McCain 296, Obama 242 (and my other predictions)!

Muskogee Politico's Election Predictions

The Muskogee Politico's Election Predictions

President
John McCain stages a comeback very much like Harry Truman. McCain gets 296 in the Electoral College, Obama takes 242.

How some of the battleground states fall:

Colorado: Obama
Florida: McCain
Iowa: Obama
Indiana: McCain
Michigan: Obama
Minnesota: McCain
Missouri: McCain
North Carolina: McCain
New Hampshire: Obama
New Mexico: Obama
Nevada: McCain
Ohio: McCain
Pennsylvania: McCain
Virginia: McCain

Yes, I think McCain will pull Minnesota and Pennsylvania...

U.S. Senate and U.S. House
Jim Inhofe and Dan Boren win easily.

Corporation Commission
Jeff Cloud wins; Dana Murphy eeks out a victory (less than 1%).

State House
Republicans gain the Covey seat, lose either the Thomsen and the Dennis Johnson seat. Zero net change in the State House.

State Senate
The Republicans win the Newberry/Riley election, the Morgan seat (Stillwater), and in a stunner, Kenny Sherrill takes the Lerblance/Gene Stipe seat in McAlester. Net gain of 3 seats for the Republicans.

Muskogee Area
Rep. George Faught (R, Muskogee) gets 58% of the vote. Rep. McPeak (D, Warner) and Sheriff Charles Pearson are re-elected by easy margins. County Propositions 1 & 2 pass.

Election Predictions

The Muskogee Politico's election predictions...

COMING MONDAY!