Election Board says 'No' to CD2 special election

From NewsOK.com:

Board declines to hold special election in Oklahoma 2nd Congressional District 

No new election is needed in a Nov. 4 congressional race featuring a landslide victory by the Republican incumbent two days after his Democratic challenger died in a car wreck, the Oklahoma Election Board decided Wednesday.

Relying on advice from the Oklahoma attorney general’s office, the board voted 3-0 to certify the results of this and all general election contests, with the exception of a judge’s race in which a recount is to be held.
[...]
The Oklahoma Democratic Party has called for a special election in the district, which covers most of rural eastern Oklahoma. Wallace Collins, chairman of the state Democratic Party, said the party would consider a lawsuit to challenge the board’s decision.

“We will pursue our legal options to this issue because we don’t think it’s being handled correctly,” Collins said. “I understand what they’re doing but I think they’ve been given bad advice.”

Collins said he thought Attorney General Scott Pruitt, a Republican, “was predisposed to giving the opinion that was given today.”
[...]
The attorney general’s office found that federal law applying to congressional races trumps a state law that allows for a special election in a case in which a candidate dies shortly before election day.

Federal law says the general election for U.S. representatives shall be on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November — or Nov. 4 this year. Therefore, to hold a special election on a different date, as envisioned in the state law, would be impermissible in this contest, the attorney general’s office said.

Federal law does allow a state to hold a special election for a congressional office on another date in the case of the death of the winner of the election, but in this case the person who died also lost the election.

Read the full article here.

Democrats pick Jerry Ellis for CD2 Special Election

The Oklahoma Democratic Party appears to have selected outgoing state senator Jerry Ellis as their candidate for the possible special election in the 2nd Congressional District. Ellis was one of three individuals the party picked as finalists for the spot.

From the AP:

OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) — Oklahoma Democratic Party Chairman Wallace Collins says an outgoing state senator from Valliant has been selected by the party as its candidate in a possible special election for the 2nd Congressional District seat in eastern Oklahoma.

Collins said Democratic state Sen. Jerry Ellis was picked Monday from a list of three candidates selected during a meeting of the party's central committee over the weekend. The 67-year-old Ellis served 12 years in the Oklahoma House and Senate.

Republican U.S. Rep. Markwayne Mullin received 70 percent of the vote in last week's general election, but the Democratic nominee, Earl Everett, died two days before the election.

Attorney General Scott Pruitt is studying the issue and is expected to brief the Oklahoma State Election Board on Wednesday, before the election results are certified.

Dems pick three potential CD2 special election candidates

The Oklahoma Democratic Party's Central Committee met Saturday to select a replacement candidate for the likely special election in the 2nd Congressional District. Yesterday, state chairman Wallace Collins announced they had narrowed down the field to three individuals.

The ODP has selected State Rep. Ben Sherrer (D-Choteau), outgoing State Sen. Jerry Ellis (D-Valliant), and Tahequah attorney Paul Shiefelbein.

Sherrer is an attorney who represents HD8, which covers portions of Mayes, Rogers, and Wagoner counties. He is in his final term as a state representative.

Ellis represents SD5, which covers Choctaw, McCurtain, Pushmataha, and portions of Atoka and LeFlore counties in far southeast Oklahoma. Ellis formerly served in the State House, but ran for SD5 two years ago, prompting a special election this year due to term limits cutting his senate term in half. Ironically, Ellis' district just went Republican.

I know nothing about Shiefelbein other than he is an attorney from Tahlequah.

Whomever the ODP ultimately selects as their replacement candidate will go up against Republican Congressman Markwayn Mullin and Indepedent Jon Douthitt, assuming a special election is called (which according to my reading of the statute is inevitable).

Dilemma: who will Dems pick for possible CD2 special election?

With the prospect of a 2nd Congressional District special election looming, and the need to select a substitute candidate, the Oklahoma Democratic Party is in a pickle.

Their Party is in electoral shambles. They have not won a statewide race since 2006, and lost their lone congressional district to the GOP in 2012 after Dan Boren did not seek reelection. They are down to a mere eight seats in the 48-seat State Senate, and outnumbered 72-29 in the State House.

What's a Party to do in such a circumstance?

ODP Chairman Wallace Collins has told the media that they are considering "10 to 12" candidates to substitute for deceased nominee Earl Everett in a hypothetical (but likely) special election. Their new nominee would go up against GOP incumbent Markwayne Mullin and Independent Jon Douthitt, who received 70% and 5.4% in the November 4th election, respectively.

So, who would might they be considering? I'll take some guesses, and throw out some possibilities (some more realistic than others). I'll rate them on Likelihood of being selected, and Competitiveness in a 2nd District election.

Listed in order of my "competitiveness" rating, we start with...

BRAD HENRY
Likelihood: 0-0.5
Competitiveness: 10
Review: Brad Henry would probably be the most viable candidate the Democrats could put forward, and since residence in the district is not a requirement for federal offices, that wouldn't be a hindrance for a Henry candidacy. Henry is easily the most popular Democrat in Oklahoma, and won the 2nd District counties by huge margins in his gubernatorial races. However, the likelihood of Henry going for it is practically nil, so Republicans can breath a sigh of relief.

DREW EDMONDSON
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 8
Review: Drew Edmondson is an intriguing option for the Democrats. Edmonson has deep ties to the 2nd District; his father Ed was 2nd District congressman from 1953 to 1973 (the U.S. Courthouse in Muskogee is name after him), and his brother James is on the Oklahoma Supreme Court. Drew was the Muskogee County DA from 1983 to 1995. Drew would probably be pretty competitive, but at 68 years old, it's doubtful he'd want to re-enter the political world.

BRAD CARSON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 7

Review: Carson held the seat from 2000 to 2004, before losing the U.S. Senate race to his 2nd District predecessor, Tom Coburn. He expressed interest in the seat again when Boren made his announcement in June 2011, but changed his mind later in the month, and was appointed Under Secretary of the Army in September 2011. Would he be interested in leaving his Army post for a tough Congressional race? I doubt it.

JOE DORMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 6

Review: Dorman lives in the 4th District, but was just on the ballot for Governor and as such has high name recognition. He got around 43% of the gubernatorial vote in the 2nd District, which was slightly higher than he got statewide, and won four of the six counties he won are in the 2nd District. I could see the ODP trying to get Dorman to step in here.

JERRY ELLIS
Likelihood: 7
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Ellis termed out of the State Senate this year, and has put his name in with the ODP Central Committee. I view Ellis as the most likely pick for the Democrats. However, I don't see him as all that competitive, for several reasons. His old seat went Republican on Tuesday, Mullin has a significant bank account still and will far outraise any Democrat, and Ellis has practically no base outside of his old far-southeastern district. 

PETE REGAN
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 4

Review: Regan was chief-of-staff for Dan Boren, lost to Jari Askins in the 2006 Lt. Governor primary, but was appointed by Gov. Fallin to the Transportation Commission, surprising many Republicans. He could be a fairly competitive candidate, in large part due to ties to political money.

KENNETH CORN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Kenneth Corn was mentioned as a possible candidate in 2012, but declined to make the run. A former state senator, he lost the Lt. Governor race pretty badly against Todd Lamb in 2010, winning just two counties. Lamb had a 40%+ margin of victory in 13 of the 26 counties in the 2nd District, so I just don't see Corn as a very viable candidate.

JIM WILSON
Likelihood: 5
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wilson ran against Boren in 2010, and lost badly. Term-limited from the state senate in 2010, he's probably the most liberal individual on this list, and as such would be easy to beat.

WAYNE HERRIMAN
Likelihood: 4
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Herriman lost in the 2012 runoff to Rob Wallace, but might be open to another run. Could he do better than Rob Wallace? I don't think so.

EARL GARRISON
Likelihood: 1
Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Senator from Muskogee, Garrison will be term-limited in 2014. Garrison isn't a particularly charismatic candidate, and his district base just isn't enough to make him that competitive.

ROB WALLACE
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Wallace got 38.34% in 2012 against Mullin. I doubt another attempt would be more successful, or that Wallace would be interested.

MIKE BROWN
Likelihood: 2

Competitiveness: 3

Review: State Representative from Tahlequah, Brown is serving his final term. Would he be interested, since he'll be out of office soon anyway?

JERRY MCPEAK
Likelihood: 2
Competitiveness: 3

Review: Like Brown, McPeak will also be term-limited from the House in 2016. With so few elected officials left in eastern Oklahoma, will the ODP ask McPeak? 

JOSHUA HARRIS-TILL
Likelihood: 6
Competitiveness: 1

Review: Harris-Till lost with 37% to Earl Everett in the primary this year, even though Everett suffered a stroke two months before the primary. He has publicly stated that he is interested. He wouldn't have a chance at winning.

Special election a distinct possibility in CD2

In the flurry of activity before the election this past Tuesday, an event occurred that could have significant ramifications. Earl Everett, the Democratic nominee for Congress in the 2nd District, died Sunday from injuries sustained in a car wreck two days before. Incumbent Republican Congressman Markwayne Mullin went on to win with 70% of the vote, while Everett received 24.6% and Independent candidate Jon Douthitt got 5.4%. That seemed to be simply a tragic footnote in an otherwise unremarkable and lopsided race.

However, the Oklahoma Democratic Party and state chairman Wallace Collins appear to be pushing for a special election, given the fact that their nominee was no longer living at the time of the election. The ODP Central Committee is meeting tomorrow (Saturday) to pick a replacement candidate in the event a special election is called.

State statute does spell out how these situations are handled.

§26-1-105.  Substitute candidates.
A. In the event of the death of a political party's nominee for office prior to the date of the General Election, a substitute candidate will be permitted to have his name placed on the General Election ballot as follows:
[...]
3. If said death should occur five (5) days or more following the Runoff Primary Election date, a special General Election shall be called by the Governor and shall be conducted according to the laws governing such elections, Section 12-101 et seq. of this title, except that there shall be no filing period or special Primary Election and the candidates in the special General Election shall be the substitute candidate named by the central committee and the nominee of other political parties elected in the Primary or Runoff Primary, and any previously filed independent candidates.

From my reading, I would say we're headed for a special election.

Dave Weston, chairman of the Oklahoma Republican Party, is objecting to the ODP's call for a special election, saying it would "disenfranchise" voters' selection on Tuesday, and be a waste of taxpayer resources.

I understand where Weston is coming from. Mullin got 70% of the vote; will a special election really be much different? In all likelihood it won't. But, I think the state statute is abundantly clear and precise (Governor Fallin and the State Election Board have asked Attorney General Scott Pruitt to review and advise on how to proceed).

We'll see how this shakes out. Several names have already surfaced as possible replacement candidates for the Democrats, which I will address in a following post.

RJ Harris: The Evolving Perennial Candidate

Governor Mary Fallin appears to have drawn her first opponent for the 2014 campaign, and the candidate comes with a colorful history.

Meet RJ Harris, Republican Libertarian Independent Democrat candidate for Congress President Congress Governor.

Let's examine the political evolution of Oklahoma's next great perennial candidate.

2010:

RJ Harris, Republican

RJ's first foray into politics was as a Republican candidate in Oklahoma's 4th Congressional District in 2010. He lost to Congressman Tom Cole 77%-23%.

 2012:

RJ Harris, Libertarian

In August of 2011, Harris threw his hat into the ring for President -- this time as a Libertarian. After nine months of campaigning for the nomination, he withdrew his candidacy, citing fundraising difficulties.

RJ Harris, Independent

Since his presidential campaign didn't pan out, Harris ran for Congress again, but this time as an Independent. He came in third (5%), behind Congressman Cole (68%), and Democrat Donna Bebo (29%).

 2014:

RJ Harris, Democrat

Now, he's decided to run for Governor, and as a Democrat. So far, he is the only announced Democratic candidate.

The Daily Oklahoman newspaper writes that "Wallace Collins, chairman of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, said Harris is a good candidate for the party and he supports his campaign."  I'll let that comment speak for itself.

The 2014 election is getting more and more interesting...

Are you Bona Fide?

Oklahoma City -- The Oklahoma Republican Party today launched its latest web ad focused on the poor performance of President Obama in Oklahoma, and asks the question, "are you bona fide?"

Following Super Tuesday, The Oklahoma Democratic Party notified Democrat Presidential candidate Randall Terry, who campaigned as a pro life, pro-Keystone candidate, that he would not be allocated delegates to the party's national convention because his campaign failed to complete the proper paperwork and---much more revealing---that the national party (DNC) said he was not a "bona fide Democrat."

Barack Obama lost 15 counties in Oklahoma and 43% of registered Democrats voted for someone other than the incumbent Democrat president. With that, Terry qualified for four national convention delegates.

However, DNC rules define a "qualified candidate" as a "bona fide Democrat" who "affirmatively demonstrates that he or she is faithful to the interests, welfare and success of the Democratic Party."

When asked about Terry’s candidacy, ODP Chairman Collins said he thought Terry was simply a Republican who was trying to embarrass Obama. “He’s a Republican,” Collins said.

"Collins is right," said Chairman Pinnell, "if you are pro-life, believe in religious freedom, and support energy policies that promote projects like the Keystone Pipeline then I guess you aren't a bona fide Democrat but instead a bona fide Republican," said Chairman Pinnell.