Thursday, September 13, 2018

Poll: GOP leads OK-Gov race by 2%, wide leads elsewhere


A recent survey performed by SoonerPoll for Oklahoma's CBS affiliates (KWTV in Oklahoma City, and KOTV in Tulsa) finds a tight race for Governor, but wide leads for the Republican nominees in other races.


Governor:
Kevin Stitt (R) - 46.6%
Drew Edmondson (D) - 44.2%
Chris Powell (L) - 3.2%
Undecided/not sure - 6.0%
By far the closest race, this also has a very low undecided number. Libertarian candidate Chris Powell may well play a key role in the outcome of the 2018 gubernatorial race, depending on who he draws more from.

Digging into the cross-tabs, Stitt wins 76% of Republicans while Edmondson gets 78% of Democrats. Stitt takes 14.9% of Democrat voters, while Edmondson snags 15.6% of Republicans. Edmondson beats Stitt among Independents 50.6% to 25.6%.

Stitt leads in the 1st District (by 9.7%), 2nd District (by 16.2%), and 4th District (by 6.7%), while Edmondson leads in the 3rd District (by 10.1%) and 5th District (by 12.1%).

Lieutenant Governor:
Matt Pinnell (R) - 49.1%
Anastasia Pittman (D) - 31.0%
Ivan Holmes (I) - 4.6%
Undecided/not sure - 15.3%
Matt Pinnell leads the race for Lieutenant Governor by 18.1%, over Democrat Anastasia Pittman and former Oklahoma Democratic Party chairman Ivan Holmes, who is running as an Independent.

State Auditor:
Cindy Byrd (R) - 56.3%
John Yeutter (L) - 17.3%
Undecided/not sure - 26.4%
    While John Yeutter will likely set a new record for most Libertarian votes received (thanks to a head-to-head with the Republican nominee), he trails the GOP candidate by the largest margin on the ballot. At 39%, Cindy Byrd has the largest lead in this survey.

    Attorney General:
    Mike Hunter (R) - 52.1%
    Mark Myles (D) - 34.2%
    Undecided/not sure - 13.7%
    On the ballot for the first time since he infamously lost to perennial candidate Jim Rogers in the 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Mark Myles trails Republican Mike Hunter by 17.9%.

    State Treasurer:
    Randy McDaniel (R) - 41.7%
    Charles de Coune (I) - 20.3%
    Undecided/not sure - 38.0%
    In the other race with no Democratic candidate, State Rep. Randy McDaniel will have easy sailing to the State Treasurer's office.

    State Superintendent:
    Joy Hofmeister (R) - 50.6%
    John Cox (D) - 31.3%
    Larry Huff (I) - 9.3%
    Undecided/not sure - 8.9%
    In a rematch from 2014, Republican Joy Hofmeister leads by 19.3%. She defeated Cox in 2014 by 11.6%, with no Independent or third-party candidate in the mix.

    Labor Commissioner:
    Leslie Osborn (R) - 48.8%
    Fred Dorrell (D) - 26.3%
    Brandt Dismukes (I) - 6.2%
    Undecided/not sure - 18.7%
    Dorrell is the lowest-scoring Democrat in this poll, trailing by 22.5%, with an Independent also in the race.

    Insurance Commissioner:
    Glen Mulready (R) - 41.9%
    Kimberly Fobbs (D) - 32.8%
    Undecided/not sure - 25.3%
    The closest race on the ballot, Mulready leads by 9.1%, but one-quarter of respondents are undecided.

    Corporation Commissioner:
    Bob Anthony (R) - 47.5%Ashley Nicole McCray (D) - 29.5%Jackie Short (I) - 8.5%Undecided/not sure - 14.5%
    Bob Anthony, running for his final term in office, leads by 18%.

    The scientific study was conducted September 5-10, 2018 with 407 likely voters selected at random statewide from a tri-frame of SoonerPoll’s own online panel, cell phones and landline telephones. For cell phone and landline telephones, voters are selected at random from SoonerPoll’s voter database and matched with cell and landline phone numbers. Cell phone participants are collected using live interviewers and landline participants are collected using both live interviewer and IVR (Interactive Voice Response) technology. The sample was weighted by age, political party, and congressional district in order to reflect the Oklahoma likely voter population. 

    The sample reflects the traditional demographical profile of the Oklahoma likely voter with roughly half of respondents identifying as conservative. The study has a Margin of Error (MoE) of ±4.86 percent.

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