Friday, October 31, 2014

Last SoonerPoll survey: Fallin lead cut to 8, Hofmeister up 2, Inhofe and Lankford up 30+

In the final survey conducted by SoonerPoll before the election on Tuesday, results find Governor Mary Fallin's lead slipping slightly, the State Superintendent race a virtual tie, and the GOP running away with both U.S. Senate races.

I've posted the results from SoonerPoll's previous surveys as well. The September poll is in parentheses, and the August poll is in brackets. I've also included the movement from the previous survey.

News9/News on 6/SoonerPoll surveys
Crosstabs: Oct. 29 (Sept. 29) [Aug. 30]
Oct. 29 MoE +/-3.18% (Sept. 29 MoE +/- 4.9%) [Aug 30. MoE +/- 3.99%]

Governor

  • Mary Fallin (R): 48.4 (49.9) [50.3]   -1.5%
  • Joe Dorman (D): 40.0 (35.8) [32.1]   +4.2%
  • Richard Prawdzienski (I): 2.8 (3.2) [1.2]   -0.4%
  • Kimberly Willis (I): 1.7 (3.3) (1.1]   -1.6%
  • Unsure 7.1 (7.9)  (15.0]   -0.8%

Have Joe Dorman's efforts to tie Governor Fallin to unpopular State Superintendent Janet Barresi been working? Fallin lost a little bit of ground, while Dorman climbed to his highest point yet in SoonerPoll's survey. It's probably too little, too late, but this race just might end up a lot closer than expected.

U.S. Senate - full term

  • Jim Inhofe (R):  62.7 (56.4) [59.1]   +6.3%
  • Matt Silverstein (D): 27.8 (32.0) [27.4]   -4.2%
  • Ray Woods (I): 2.6 (3.8) [1.7]   -1.2%
  • Aaron Delozier (I): 1.3 (0.5) [1.7]   +0.8%
  • Joan Farr (I): 1.3 (0.8) [1.2]   +0.5%
  • Unsure 4.4 (6.5) [8.8]   -2.1%

Don't be surprised if Inhofe hits 70% on election night.

U.S. Senate - partial term

  • James Lankford (R):  59.4 (56.2) [58.2]   +3.2%
  • Connie Johnson (D): 28.1 (28.1) [28.1]   even
  • Mark Beard (I): 3.5 (3.5) [3.0]   even
  • Unsure 9.0 (12.2) [10.7]   -3.2%

I don't think I've ever seen a candidate draw the same exact percentage three months in a row. I'd say 28.1% is about as low as Lankford will get Johnson to go.

State Superintendent

  • Joy Hofmeister (R):42.3 (38.3) [38.4]   +4.0%
  • John Cox (D): 40.1 (38.0) [40.5]   +2.1%
  • Unsure 17.6 (23.7) [21.2]   -6.1

This is the general election race of the cycle. In all three surveys, Cox and Hofmeister have been within the margin of error. Hofmeister has a very slight lead at the moment, but John Cox is by no means out of reach. This race still is the Oklahoma Democratic Party's best opportunity for a win.

The Democrats are trying to make the entire election a referendum on Janet Barresi's tenure as State Superintendent. However, Hofmeister's numbers grew at double the rate Cox's did, while Governor Fallin lost ground. In an ironic twist, is this "Barresi tactic" working more in the gubernatorial race than it is in the superintendent race?

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