Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Campaign Poll Shows Pruitt With Lead in AG Race


The Scott Pruitt for Attorney General campaign commissioned a poll last week by CMA Strategies, which showed Pruitt with a substantial lead over his primary opponent, Ryan Leonard. Here's the press release from the Pruitt campaign:

Pruitt Leads in Republican Primary for Attorney General
Scott Pruitt, despite his recent entry, holds double-digit lead over Ryan Leonard

A survey conducted last week by the Scott Pruitt for Attorney General Campaign shows Scott Pruitt with a sizeable lead over Ryan Leonard, the only other announced Republican candidate for Attorney General.

Conducted less than two weeks after Pruitt’s decision to enter the race, it reveals that Pruitt is much better known than Leonard who has been campaigning for 13 months and running radio advertising in both the Oklahoma City and Tulsa markets. In fact, Pruitt’s name recognition is 53%, more than five times the 10% rating of Leonard. Neither candidate has any significant negative rating.

The statewide survey of 500 Republicans with a history of voting in Republican primaries also shows that Pruitt has a 16-point lead over Leonard (21% Pruitt vs. 5% Leonard) though most voters remain undecided. More impressive is the fact that Pruitt’s lead widens among the most active voters, going to 28% vs. 2% among those who have voted in at least four of the last six Republican primary or run-off elections.

According to Oklahoma-based pollster Pat McFerron, who conducted the poll, the high number of undecided voters is not unusual at this stage of a campaign. “In a Republican primary, one does not have the partisan label to provide a base. This causes there to be a large number of undecided voters this far out. In fact, to be a candidate for a secondary office, garnering over 20% in a primary without having an active campaign is quite remarkable,” McFerron stated.

Pruitt currently leads in all parts of the state and demonstrates real strength in the important Tulsa region where he leads Leonard by a 27% to 5% margin. Pruitt leads by double-digits in all regions of the state, including the rural northwest home-base for the Beaver born and raised Leonard, by a sizeable margin (22% Pruitt vs. 6% Leonard).

While Pruitt leads among all income groups, his greatest lead comes among those residing in households earning more than $80,000 a year. Among this group, which is critical to fundraising success, Pruitt has name recognition of 53% with a strongly favorable rating of 22%. In contrast Leonard’s name identification among this group is 14% and his favorable is only 6%. As a result, it is not surprising that Pruitt’s lead among this critical group is almost twenty points (26% Pruitt vs. 7% Leonard).

"We're encouraged by what we learned. We have work to do, but are pleased we begin the race with a clear lead. Scott's depth and credibility with conservative voters is clear” stated Pruitt campaign manager, Tyler Laughlin. “Scott Pruitt commands a sizeable lead because he is a proven conservative with a strong record of fighting for conservative core values. We will work in the coming months to build on the lead Scott possesses and look forward to taking his message to the voters,” Laughlin continued.

The survey was conducted by CMA Strategies; an Oklahoma based political consulting firm, and overseen by veteran pollster Pat McFerron. McFerron has conducted hundreds of surveys in Oklahoma and across the nation. The interviewing occurred March 23 -25, 2010. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.3% at 95% confidence.

[emphasis mine]

Pruitt entered the race on March 8th, while Leonard has been an announced candidate for close to a year. This is very early in the race, and I fully expect for the gap between to tighten significantly as the campaign progresses.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Did You Get an IMC Polling Call?

I got a call today from "IMC Polling". Unfortunately, as I was scrambling around to find a paper and pencil, I didn't respond in time to continue with the poll, but I did catch a few things.

1. The poll was from IMC Polling. I have received calls from them before - see this post of mine from September, and this post from Race42008 (cached copy here).

2. The poll was on the 2012 election. The automated pollster started off with something like this: "Given the passage of landmark health care reform by Congress last week, who will you be voting for in the 2012 presidential election?"

3. They listed off eight or nine different choices. Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, re-elect Barack Obama, Other, Undecided... and I think I heard all of them.

Unfortunately, as I mentioned previously, I did not complete the call, since I was scouring the dining room for something to write with. I was hoping they would have a "press 9 to repeat" option, but they didn't. Instead, I got a "thank you for your time" message, then a hangup.

I'm really kicking myself for not just picking an option, and going through the poll without something to write. I could have remembered most of what they would have asked, I'm sure. Maybe they'll call me again...

___________________________________________

Cross-posted at RightOSphere

Monday, March 29, 2010

The Conservative View: Celebrations and Hangovers

Last week's Conservative View, by Adair County Commissioner Russell Turner (R-Stilwell).
The Conservative View
by Russell Turner

Celebrations and Hangovers

We Americans are a people that want to have good time and not worry about the consequences later. It is amazing how many people get themselves into financial trouble buying Christmas gifts and celebrating the holiday season. It is so easy to get the credit card out and buy all kinds of bling and other things that we really don’t need in the first place. We forget that there comes a pay up time; just listen to all of the wailing and gnashing when the credit card bill comes in January. After the historic socialistic vote on government run health care that our all knowing and wise congressmen and women imposed upon us mere mortals, one individual compared the new law to being as good as Christmas day and, with this new legislation, every day would be just like Christmas.

Far too many people have the idea that all of the expenses will be paid by the rich people and corporations of this country; sadly they do not understand economics. I have seen people get irate when the items that they need keep going up in price. Corporations must make a profit if they wish to stay in business. Corporations for the most part don’t pay taxes; they are merely the instrument by which the government collects taxes from the citizens of this country. Whenever the cost of production goes up, the price of the product that they are producing must go up if they are to survive as a business. All businesses do this; they are passing the cost of increased production on to the consumer. For example; if a company manufactures toasters and sells them for ten dollars, they have to have that amount in order to stay in business. If additional expenses are incurred (such as health care premiums) the price may jump to thirteen dollars. In reality the cost of health care premiums that you thought someone else would have to pay has just cost you, the consumer, a 30% jump in the cost of the toaster that you needed. What most people fail to understand is that, all the items that we need will rise in price.

Many people like to have a big party on New Year’s Eve and consume an excessive amount of alcohol, usually the next morning they wake up with a throbbing head and a huge hangover. For the Americans that are celebrating this new entitlement, it will be just a matter of time until their headache begins.

If you wish to contact Russell Turner, or want to subscribe to his email loop, email him at rdrepublican@windstream.net.

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Randy Terrill and the OPEA: Sweetheart Legislation and Funny Money


State Rep. Randy Terrill (R-Moore), widely known for his anti-illegal immigration legislation, could become known for something new: his close, and possibly illegal, ties to the Oklahoma Public Employees Association.

Two articles from the Daily Oklahoma point out his unsavory relationship with the labor union.


Terrill and the OPEA's Sweetheart Legislation

For years, state employees home addresses have not fallen under the Oklahoma Open Records Act, and have not been made public, for privacy and security reasons.

However, Terrill tacked on an amendment to a Conference Committee Report on House Bill 2245 at the very end of the 2009 legislative session that enables "any statewide organization limited to state employee membership with a minimum membership of two thousand dues-paying members" to receive a list of addresses for all state employees in order to send a once-annual mailing.

HB 2245, the Oklahoma Criminal Illegal Alien Repatriation Act of 2009, dealt with illegal immigrants in state prisons - not exactly a similar issue to unions getting access to state employee mailing lists.

OPEA named Terrill the 2009 legislator of the year, in part for his legislation giving them access to the mailing list. Terrill is a member of the OPEA union. The Oklahoman reports in more detail here.

I ask, why is a self-proclaimed "conservative" Republican so tight with a labor union? See the next article for just one reason...


Terrill and the OPEA's Contribution Problem

In the 2008 campaign, the OPEA political action committee contributed the maximum $5000 to Terrill's reelection campaign. An individual or PAC can only contribute up to $5000 to any campaign for the entire election cycle.

In August of 2009, OPEAPAC gave a $5000 maximum donation to Terrill's 2010 campaign. On October 21st, Terrill deposited the check into his campaign account. However, Terrill has not filed a 2010 campaign committee with the State Ethics Commission. State law requires for candidates to file with the Ethics Commission within 10 days of receiving more than $500 in contributions.

Since he has not filed a 2010 account, the donation was reported as going to his 2008 account - breaking ethics rules, since a campaign can receive only $5000 per cycle from any donor. The Oklahoman has another article on the issue here.


Terrill's sneaky, questionable actions and close ties to a labor union bother this conservative activist, and should concern every conservative in the state of Oklahoma. Conservatives decry slipping in major changes to law or policy at the very last minute when it happens in Congress, or when Democrats do it.

When a "conservative" legislator does both of these things, red flags should fly.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Quote on Volunteerism and Government


"I volunteer, not because the government isn't doing enough, but because it's not the government's job to do it."


A quote from a friend, who volunteers for various non-profits in Muskogee.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Global Warming Sinks Island? I Think Not


The Associated Press is reporting with hysteria that global warming has claimed another island in the Bay of Bengal.

NEW DELHI – For nearly 30 years, India and Bangladesh have argued over control of a tiny rock island in the Bay of Bengal. Now rising sea levels have resolved the dispute for them: the island's gone.

New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said.

"What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming," said Hazra.

Scientists at the School of Oceanographic Studies at the university have noted an alarming increase in the rate at which sea levels have risen over the past decade in the Bay of Bengal.

Until 2000, the sea levels rose about 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) a year, but over the last decade they have been rising about 5 millimeters (0.2 inches) annually, he said.

Another nearby island, Lohachara, was submerged in 1996, forcing its inhabitants to move to the mainland, while almost half the land of Ghoramara island was underwater, he said. At least 10 other islands in the area were at risk as well, Hazra said.

"We will have ever larger numbers of people displaced from the Sunderbans as more island areas come under water," he said.

Bangladesh, a low-lying delta nation of 150 million people, is one of the countries worst-affected by global warming. Officials estimate 18 percent of Bangladesh's coastal area will be underwater and 20 million people will be displaced if sea levels rise 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2050 as projected by some climate models.

This is completely bogus. First of all, they state up front that "Until 2000, the sea levels rose about 3 millimeters (0.12 inches) a year," and then claim that "over the last decade they have been rising about 5 millimeters (0.2 inches) annually." So, since the year 2000, the ocean has risen a whopping TWO inches, and submerged New Moore Island. Additionally, previous islands were sunk by sea-rise rates of one inch per eight years. Really? Is that why they disappeared?

Call me skeptical, but I seriously doubt that the aforementioned islands were submerged by "global warming" causing the sea to rise, especially at such minuscule rate of rise.


There is much more to be said about these sinking islands. For one, they are located in the ever-changing Ganges River delta, a massive system of streams and mangrove swamps. Annual flooding during monsoon season and from cyclones causing much erosion.

There are many more geological factors that go into why the islands are sinking... and resurfacing, as pointed out in this post by He has another great post here, talking about the hoax of global warming and sinking islands.

Global warming (I thought it was climate change...) sinks islands? I think not...

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Faught Receives Top Limited Government Score


State Rep. George Faught (R-Muskogee) received the top 'Limited Government' rating from Oklahomans for Sovereignty and Free Enterprise (OK-SAFE) for votes bills that made 3rd Reading this session. A bill that actually passes on 3rd Reading is sent to the next chamber (from House to Senate, or Senate to House).

OK-SAFE took ten bills, and rated them. "The general guidelines for supporting a bill were that it promotes constitutionally-limited government, or was a preemptive bill against more federal intrusion or initiatives. The general guidelines for opposing a bill were that the bill increased the power, scope and reach of government beyond it's proper function or boundaries, and/or increased the use of technology as enforcer (i.e surveillance)."

Faught was one of five representatives to get the top score: 9 out of 10 votes. The other legislators were Charles Key (R-OKC), Jason Murphey (R-Guthrie), Mike Ritze (R-Broken Arrow), and Paul Wesselhoft (R-Moore).

You can view the scores for the entire state house by clicking here. Go here to find out more about OK-SAFE.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Pruitt Statement on Healthcare Vote


Scott Pruitt, who recently jumped into the race for Attorney General, issued the following statement today regarding the healthcare bill which passed the House yesterday:
"The passage of this healthcare legislation in Washington fundamentally alters the relationship of citizen to government in America. Rather than government serving the citizen, it seeks to become master, controlling and dictating and utilizing power it does not possess.

Our founding documents are legal documents, not suggestions. They exist to control the impulses of men, and counteract the temptation toward tyranny; where elected individuals think they know better than the people they serve, that they are somehow more enlightened. The Founders defeated a monarchy that believed such things. We must in our generation now do the same.

If I am elected Oklahoma's next Attorney General I will, on behalf of Oklahomans, initiate a constitutional challenge to the legislation in its entirety, with a goal of rendering the legislation null and void in the State of Oklahoma."
Pruitt joins fellow Republican candidate Ryan Leonard in calling for a constitutional challenge of ObamaCare.

2nd District Candidate Edmonds on Health Care Vote


Edmonds, candidate for the 2nd District, released this statement regarding the health care vote in the U.S. House last night:
EDMONDS PLEDGES TO WORK TO REPEAL HEALTHCARE VOTE

MORRIS, OK - Daniel Edmonds, leading Republican candidate for Oklahoma's Second Congressional District, pledges to work to repeal the healthcare legislation recently passed in the U.S. House. Edmonds has indicated that, if elected, he will author or sponsor legislation to repeal ObamaCare.

"Our current Congressman didn't vote for ObamaCare, for which I commend him," Edmonds said. "However, I challenge him to author or sponsor legislation to repeal it. The majority of Oklahoma does not want this government healthcare so we need a representative who will take measures to repeal the current legislation. I don't believe our Congressman will initiate or support a repeal because of his support of Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House - support he's shown in casting three votes in favor of her leadership."

"If given the honor to serve my fellow Oklahomans in Washington, I will author or sponsor legislation to repeal ObamaCare. This legislation is wrong for America and a vast majority did not want this legislation to pass. We will work to repeal it and instead offer real solutions of availability, tort reform, and lower costs."

To learn more about Daniel Edmonds and his current campaign for Oklahoma's U.S. Congressional District 2 Seat, visit http://danieledmonds.org. Edmonds is the leading Republican in a contested primary. The primary election will be held July 27. The general election will be held November 2.

Edmonds is one of four candidates running on the Republican side for the 2nd Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dan Boren.

The other candidates are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson.

2nd District Candidate Houchen on Health Care Vote


Howard Houchen, candidate for the 2nd District, released this statement regarding the health care vote in the U.S. House last night:
Howard Houchen, Republican Candidate for US Congressional District OK-2 Statement on House Health Care Vote

Hugo, OK – 21 March 2010 -- In the evening hours of 21 March 2010, Speaker Pelosi's House of Representatives voted for passage of not just Federal government control of the American Health Care sector but, in doing so also voted to cement the foundations of the Progressive central-planning collectivist ideology that an overwhelming majority of Eastern Oklahomans, and Americans, have voiced opposition to. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele reiterated what I have been saying throughout Eastern Oklahoma and across as much of America as possible for almost a year: "The problem has been...that the Leadership has not listened. This Administration, this Congress has not listened to what people wanted." Does anyone doubt that if the peoples' elected representatives had voted the will of their constituency that this bill wouldn't have passed? What occurred today provides definitive proof of what I stated back in June of 2009; "American governance is busted...and it needs new batteries."

While I do not believe today’s vote represents the absolute final say on whether or not America turns to socialized health care, and all the other central-planning mechanisms that are contained in this unconstitutional and un-American piece of legislation, I do believe it signals a hazardous change of direction that America is not meant to travel and will place us in perils not yet fully contemplated that will undo, forever, the intent and purpose of our Founding Principles. To paraphrase Sen. Jim DeMint from a statement at around 4:00 pm CST: This is a wholly unworthy process for a free people.

While I have always held on to hope that this day would not come, whereby our elected officials overtly and arrogantly ignored the unmistakable will of the citizenry, we have prepared the Houchen for Congress campaign to deal with such a blow to individual and economic freedom by the Pelosi House. On 14 January 2010, I signed the "Repeal It Pledge" that was initiated by The Club for Growth which stated very simply: "I, Howard Houchen, hereby pledge to the people of OK-D2 upon my election to the U.S. House of Representatives, to sponsor and support legislation to repeal any federal health care takeover passed in 2010, and replace it with real reforms that lower health care costs without growing government." To date, the only Oklahoma Republicans who have signed that pledge are Sen. Tom Coburn, Rep. Tom Cole, Rep. John Sullivan, Republican House Candidate (OK-05) Kevin Calvey, and Howard Houchen. Note: No other Oklahoma legislator has signed this pledge to overturn socialized medicine.

Clearly our attempts as "mere citizens" to be represented by our officials in government no longer is worthy of their attention. This current state of affairs must not be allowed to stand. I have made the solemn vow to turn back the encroachments of federal government on individual liberties and economic freedom...today’s vote only serves to strengthen that resolve. America is far too special and deserves far greater than what now guides her course. I will fight for the voice of Eastern Oklahomans to be heard at all times and will fight for the future of the America we know is possible and not settle for anything less than an environment of Freedom, Constitutional adherence, and a truly limited federal government.

Houchen is one of four candidates running on the Republican side for the 2nd Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Dan Boren.

The other candidates are Dan Arnett, Daniel Edmonds, and Charles Thompson.


Leonard Calls for AGs to Challenge Healthcare Bill


With passage of the health care bill last night, Attorney General candidate Ryan Leonard calls for a constitutional challenge.

Attorney General Candidate Ryan Leonard: AG’s Should Challenge Constitutionality of Obama Health Care Bill

Leonard recognized for being an early and leading voice for constitutional challenge

Ryan Leonard, Republican candidate for Attorney General, today called upon Attorneys General from across the country to challenge the constitutionality of the newly-passed health care measure when it becomes law. Leonard has been a leading voice for a constitutional challenge to the proposal for many months.

"I believe the federal mandate in this bill requiring every American to purchase health insurance is unconstitutional. It is an unprecedented form of federal action, and an intrusion into the personal lives of Americans," Leonard said. "If the legal challenge to the federal mandate is successful, the law will fail."

According to Leonard, "Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution grants Congress the authority to regulate interstate commerce. However, nowhere is Congress granted the authority to require an individual to engage in interstate commerce. The proposal passed today amounts to a 'living tax,' one imposed on every person merely because they choose not to buy health insurance. While states plainly have the authority to require individuals to purchase car insurance, for example, it is unprecedented for the federal government to require an individual to purchase a good or service as a condition of lawful residence in the United States."

"The federal mandate provisions of the health care bill rely upon a strained-beyond-reason interpretation of the Commerce Clause, rendering the 10th Amendment a nullity, and I believe it’s unconstitutional," Leonard continued. "The Attorneys General must take a leadership role on this issue, and defend the Constitution from the over-reaching actions of this Congress and President."

Leonard received wide-spread attention for a November op-ed piece questioning the constitutionality of several provisions of the proposed healthcare bill. In December, a number of state Attorneys General questioned the constitutionality of the "Cornhusker Compromise," a political kick-back offered to Senator Ben Nelson in exchange for his support of the bill.

In the absence, for now, of a conservative majority in Congress, let's hope that this terrible legislation can be overturned by a push from state AGs.

Ryan Leonard is running for Attorney General here in Oklahoma - former State Sen. Scott Pruitt is also running for the GOP nomination.

Sunday, March 21, 2010

Boehner on Executive Order Stupak Sold Out For

Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) on the Executive Order that Bart Stupak sold out for:
WASHINGTON, DC – House Republican Leader John Boehner (R-OH) issued the following statement on a potential Executive Order from the White House on abortion:

"The law of the land trumps any Executive Order, which can be reversed or altered at the stroke of a pen by this or any subsequent President without any congressional approval or notice. Moreover, while an Executive Order can direct members of the executive branch, it cannot direct the private sector.

"Because of Roe v. Wade, courts have interpreted the decision as a statutory mandate that the government must provide federal funding for elective abortion in through federal programs. In other words, no Executive Order or regulation can override a statutory mandate unless Congress passes a law that prohibits federal funding from being used in this manner. Legal experts at the US Catholic Conference of Bishops, National Right to Life Committee, Americans United for Life, and Family Research Council have confirmed this view that if the Senate bill is signed into law, it is a statutory mandate for the new health plans to include federal funding of elective abortion. The need for an Executive Order is evidence that this is true, and Congressional Democrats know it. Make no mistake, a 'yes' vote on the Democrats' health care bill is a vote for taxpayer-funded abortions."
Remember in November...

Stupak Caves

According to reports on Capitol Hill, Congressman Bart Stupak (D-MI), who had been leading a contingent of pro-life Democrats in opposition to the health care bill, has caved in and will be voting yes.

He has betrayed the pro-life community and the American people. Remember this come November, and kick every single congress-member who votes for this bill out of office.

UPDATE: Stupak has denied that he is supporting the bill. "I'm a no vote. There is no agreement. Until there is an agreement I'm a no vote."

UPDATE 2: Stupak sells out at a press conference that took place at 3pm CST/4pm EST. He reached an agreement with President Obama for an Executive Order that will "solve" the abortion language in the bill. An Executive Order... from the most pro-abortion president in history. An Executive Order, that is easily repealed by a new president, or tossed out by a court.

Stupak just sold the American people, and millions of unborn babies, for a piece of paper.

Health Care Vote Schedule


Here's the schedule for today's the health care vote in the House (all times EST):
1:00pm (EST): The House of Representatives Convenes

2:00pm: The House of Representatives will start the debate, lasting one hour, for the rules of debate for the health care reconciliation bill and the Senate health care bill.

3:00pm: The House will then vote to end the debate and the House will vote on the rules of the debate.

3:15pm: The debate on the health care reconciliation package will begin and last for two hours.

5:15pm: Health Care Vote on the reconciliation package in the House of Representatives.

5:30pm: The House will debate for 15 minutes on a Republican health care substitute and then vote.

6:00pm: The House of Representatives will vote on the final health care reconciliation package.

6:15pm: Assuming the health care reconciliation bill passes in the House then they will immediately vote on the Senate health care bill.

Pray that this does not pass.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

The Conservative View: Horses and Sore Lips

This week's Conservative View, by Adair County Commissioner Russell Turner (R-Stilwell).

The Conservative View
by Russell Turner

Horses and Sore Lips

Having being raised on a farm in rural Oklahoma I have had many experiences that are alien to most people. Very few people today have ever watched a person put horse shoes on a horse. Many times a young horse is reluctant to stand still for the person to put the shoes on. To solve the problem, I have seen the person putting on the shoes take a short piece of cord and twist it around the horse’s lip. The old timers call this procedure putting a twitch on the horse’s lip. While this may seem cruel, it causes the horse to think about something else instead of being shod. The key goal is to get the horse’s attention away from the person doing the work, without the little piece of cord the worker would run the risk of being kicked or injured. This little analogy reminds me of the events that are taking place in our nation’s capital.

The president and the leaders of the US house and Senate are, for the lack of a better term, ‘hell bent for leather’ to push the health care bill through congress and have the president sign it into law. From the polling data that I have seen, the American people are not supporting this legislation. The tactics being used to get the necessary voters for passage range from strong arming to bribery. To distract the American people from the danger that this legislation would cause our nation, money is promised to congressmen that they can take back to their home district and use on pet projects. Sadly many American people cannot distinguish the difference between something free and freedom. We humans have a tendency to lose all common sense when we think that we are going to get something for nothing. ObamaCare will not make health care more affordable and accessible to all Americans. It will only increase the size and scope of government. Government will have more power over our lives and we will have less and less freedom.

Maybe the leaders in congress and the president feel that they are doing this for our own good and we average people need to take the bitter medicine like the horse being shod. I believe that there is a huge difference in a human and a horse. A horse is a dumb animal that is bred to serve humans, we humans on the other hand are meant to be free and not to serve other men or some government. Our elected leaders are acting like an uncooperative horse, maybe it is time for a twitch on their lip.

If you wish to contact Russell Turner, or want to subscribe to his email loop, email him at rdrepublican@windstream.net.

Health Care Vote, and Coburn on Vote-Sellers

U.S. Senator Tom Coburn, in Washington, D.C. on Thursday:



The latest news from Washington shows that the House Democrats are dropping plans to "Deem" the Senate version of the health care legislation as passed; it looks like they actually will be voting on the bill Sunday.

Currently, the vote is too close to call - Nancy Pelosi needs 216 votes, and current estimates put the 'yes' column at 210.

Not to be gloomy, but I fear the passage of this legislation poses a great threat to our liberty, and will bring a dark future for our country. Pray for guidance for the members of Congress...

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Lincoln-Reagan Dinner with J.C. Watts Tonight!

The Muskogee County Republican Party is holding their annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner tonight, with guest speaker J.C. Watts. There is a photo op with Watts at 6:30pm for $100; the Dinner starts at 7:00pm. Dinner tickets are $35 each.

Festivities include a raffle for two tickets for the upcoming Hannity Freedom Concert in Tulsa, live and silent auctions, and information from over a dozen candidates for state and local offices. Two more Hannity tickets will be given away in a drawing from people who sign up as Sustaining Members (monthly bank drafts to support the party).

For more information, visit MuskogeeRepublicans.org. You can view a pdf of the invitation here - below are jpg versions of the pdf (though they aren't nearly as readable as the pdf).



Shelton Make News With Crack Pipes


State Rep. Mike Shelton (D-OKC), who recently was in the news over the portrait flap in the State House, has made the news again - this time for attempting to hand out crack pipes to legislators at the Capitol.

Sources say that Shelton carried a sack of glass crack pipes into the Capitol, and tried to hand them to other legislators, while discussing legislation he is running to 'crack down' on the selling of such drug paraphernalia.

Shelton tried to hand one to State Rep. Rex Duncan (R-Sand Springs) who is running for District Attorney, in the private House lounge, but Duncan refused. Duncan told Shelton that "it's drug paraphernalia," that he would not take one, and that "it's a misdemeanor that carries up to a year in county jail just to have one in your possession." Our sources imply that Duncan felt the meeting had the air of a set-up.

Apparently, Shelton gave, or tried to give, pipes to other legislators, including House Speaker Chris Benge. One wound up on the House Floor, placed on a Republican representative's desk.

Rep. Terry Harrison (D-McAlester) was allegedly present when Shelton tried to give a pipe to Duncan. Harrison, who is also running for DA in his home district, told FOX 25 that "there's a certain amount of shock value with what Rep. Shelton did." Despite the questionable legality of the action, Harrison furthered stated that Shelton should be "commended" for bringing the issue to the attention of the legislature.

Shelton says he bought the pipes at a local convenience store. Possession of drug paraphernalia is a misdemeanor; Shelton said that he was aware of that, but doesn't believe that what he did qualifies as a criminal act.

Capitol security did not catch the crack pipes when Shelton came into the Capitol, but Shelton laughed it off when pressed by a KOKH FOX 25 interviewer. He said that he had to "make it real" for legislators, and would not hesitate to do it again.


Shelton was involved in controversy regarding official portraits on the House floor last week. Rep Lewis Moore (R-Arcadia) switched positions of President Obama's portrait and Governor Henry's portrait on the back wall of the House chamber, to which Shelton responded by taking former Republican House Speaker Lance Cargill's official portrait from the wall and placing it on the floor.

Shelton has made the rounds with the media, decrying Moore's "childish" action. Ironically, focus has been on Obama's portrait, while leaving the rest of the story, namely Cargill's portrait and Shelton's own childish actions, untold.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

McCarville Too Much for Red China

The McCarville Report is, apparently, too much for the Chinese government. Oklahoma City politico Pat McFerron reports that the conservative blog is blocked by government internet censors.

He wrote to Mike McCarville, "Thought you might like to know that apparently your site is blocked by the Chinese government. I've been in Beijing and am now in Shanghai, and yours is the only website I regularly visit that have I have not been able to access. You should wear this as a badge of honor!"

Monday, March 15, 2010

The Blogging Brief

  • Travis Gearhart at KTracy.com has penned a good article about Open Carry, which is particularly relevant given recent legislation in the Oklahoma Legislature regarding the aforementioned subject.
  • SoonerPoll surveyed the 5th Congressional District race during the past two weeks (February 25th through March 10th... seems to me like a very long poll timetable). Kevin Calvey came in first, with 19.9%, Mike Thompson had 8.6%, and James Lankford got 7%; 62.6% were undecided. I met Lankford here in Muskogee this weekend, and found him to be a very appealing candidate. Since it appears unlikely for any candidate to receive 50%+1, this race will go to a runoff. If Lankford can make the runoff, he could very well enter as the frontrunner, as he seems well-set to draw either Thompson's voters or Calvey's supporters, depending on whoever else is in the runoff.
  • This past week was very contentious in the Oklahoma Legislature. Tempers flared over texting-while-driving bans, open carry legislation, and the moving of President Obama's portrait.
  • House Democrats are apparently considering using the "Slaughter Solution" to pass ObamaCare without actually voting on the bill. Larry Jackson has more information here.
  • The Texas State Board of Education has recommended new changes to state curriculum, specifically as it relates to social studies. Here's a very biased AP article on the issue, complete with historical errors, such as referring to John Calvin (one of the great Reformers of the 16th Century) as a "Puritan theologian". Calvin preceded the Puritan movement, although his teachings did influence aspects of it.

Saturday, March 13, 2010

The Conservative View: Open the Gate

This week's Conservative View, by Adair County Commissioner Russell Turner (R-Stilwell).
The Conservative View
by Russell Turner

Open the Gate

A wise man once said that any government is a burden and expense to the citizens. I feel that the burden should be as small as possible; every effort should be made to make the government involvement into our lives simple and efficient. Anyone who has ever started a small business knows the runaround from our government just to obtain the proper licenses and permits to do business. From personal experience I know how frustrating it can be when you start calling different agencies; when you ask questions invariably the answer will be “I don’t know”. If you are lucky, after a dozen or so calls you might start to make some headway in getting your question answered. From my experiences the most useful information was to talk to other business people who had gone through the same process. I have often said that there should be some agency that an inexperienced entrepreneur could go to that could help them through the process. Fortunately a bill has passed the Oklahoma House of Representatives that has the potential to make the burdens for our business people much lighter.

House Bill 2310, by Rep. Jason Murphey, establishes a pilot program to integrate several licenses and permits with a one-stop Web site administered by the Department of Commerce. The bill would encourage a real-time environment where business owners can receive instant license and permit approval. The business one-stop site was established by legislation initially approved in 2007. The goal of the 2007 initiative was to provide potential business owners a single location they could visit in order to help them start a business.

We Americans seem to have forgotten that the entrepreneurial spirit of our citizens is the driving force of our economy. Government programs very seldom have a lasting positive impact upon our economy. I have observed people that would want to start a business, when they saw all of the hassle and paperwork they would decide to forget their desire to start a small business. I feel that the American people are a lot like a pen full of fine racehorses, they are just waiting for the gate to be opened so that they can stretch their legs. I say open the gate and let the American people grow our way out of the financial troubles we are experiencing. House Bill 2310 passed the House with a vote of 66-33 and will now proceed to the Senate for consideration.

If you wish to contact Russell Turner, or want to subscribe to his email loop, email him at rdrepublican@windstream.net.

Friday, March 12, 2010

House Dem Leaders on Stupak Amendment: More children born, millions more in health care costs


Congressman Bart Stupak (D-MI) in an interview with National Review regarding the health care bill:

Stupak notes that his negotiations with House Democratic leaders in recent days have been revealing. "I really believe that the Democratic leadership is simply unwilling to change its stance," he says. "Their position says that women, especially those without means available, should have their abortions covered." The arguments they have made to him in recent deliberations, he adds, "are a pretty sad commentary on the state of the Democratic party."

What are Democratic leaders saying? "If you pass the Stupak amendment, more children will be born, and therefore it will cost us millions more. That’s one of the arguments I’ve been hearing," Stupak says. "Money is their hang-up. Is this how we now value life in America? If money is the issue — come on, we can find room in the budget. This is life we’re talking about."

Stupak has led the pro-life Democrats in fighting against federal funding of abortions in the health care reform legislation. A fair-sized contingent of Democrats are opposing the legislation because of the abortion funding in the bill.

Lincoln-Reagan Dinner with J.C. Watts - March 18th

The Muskogee County Republican Party is holding their annual Lincoln-Reagan Dinner on Thursday, March 18th, with guest speaker J.C. Watts. There is a photo op with Watts at 6:30pm for $100; the Dinner starts at 7:00pm. Dinner tickets are $25 if pre-paid, $35 at the door.

Festivities include a raffle for two tickets for the upcoming Hannity Freedom Concert in Tulsa, live and silent auctions, and information from over a dozen candidates for state and local offices. Two more Hannity tickets will be given away in a drawing from people who sign up as Sustaining Members (monthly bank drafts to support the party).

For more information, visit MuskogeeRepublicans.org. You can view a pdf of the invitation here - below are jpg versions of the pdf (though they aren't nearly as readable as the pdf).



Thursday, March 11, 2010

Brogdon: Tax Credits Not The Solution To Job Creation


Tax Credits Are Not The Solution To Job Creation

Overspending of our State budget has many politicians looking in the wrong place to solve the problem. They are talking about borrowing more money from our children's and our grandchildren's future by robbing the state's emergency savings account.

Most politicians desire to "raise" revenue to match the current spending levels. My goal is to cut spending to match the current revenue without indebting our future or draining the state's savings account. The solution to the overdrawn budget is to cut spending and lower taxes.

Over $5 billion dollars has been taken in the past several years from the citizens of Oklahoma. This great amount of money has been filtered through state government to be redistributed to "favored" business. All in the form of so-called "Tax Credits". These "Tax Credits" are nothing more than government subsidies, and always cause higher taxes to be taken from the masses to profit a select few.

Based on my understanding of the Constitution and free market principles, I have been a long-standing proponent of eliminating "Tax Credits". After seven years of debating and voting against government subsidies, we are seeing a change. Finally other legislators and even the governor this year are following my leadership and asking for some "Tax Credit" reform.

"Tax Credits" are a government subsidy program which gives politicians the power to manipulate approved behavior, by giving special tax benefits to their selected friends at the expense of all other citizens. This is the reason why I vote against government subsidies. Eliminating subsidies and controlling the #1 issue of over-spending will set in motion a dynamic economy to create thousands of jobs in Oklahoma.

Over the last two decades, there has been a proliferation of corporate welfare in Oklahoma. Politicians have discovered they can financially support selected businesses in their districts by giving away large chunks of taxpayer dollars. Much to the chagrin of we who are capitalists, it was recently expressed on the Senate floor regarding economic development that: "Government's role is to set policy which will encourage proper behavior."

In other words, the senator who emphasized this believes it is government's responsibility to artificially control prices through tax credits. Lower prices would compel the consumer to purchase from government-favored companies rather than from its competitors who do not receive subsidies.

The Oklahoma Constitution clearly states, "Government is instituted for our protection, security, and benefit." It is not government's role to manipulate corporate behavior with tax dollars. Confiscating taxes from one and redistributing it to another, then calling it Economic Development, is not a proper function of government and is immoral at the least.

Beside the unconstitutional aspect of government subsidization of business, redistributed tax credits are diametrically opposed to the capitalist free enterprise system. Thomas Jefferson said, "The aim of the American government is to leave their citizens free, neither restraining nor aiding them in their pursuits."

Entrepreneurial ingenuity and personal productivity are the keys to success and the secret to the American dream. Government intrusion, over taxation, and regulation are sure to stifle prosperity and turn the dream into a nightmare. But if not hindered, any individual wishing to succeed has an equal chance to compete in the marketplace.

My solution to the budget problem is simple. It is based on free market principles and will have a profound positive impact on job growth. We should cut $1.3 billion dollars in spending and stop the tax credit subsidy programs which continue to plague our state budget with bigger deficits. By doing so, we place the money back in the hands of individuals and allow the market place, not politicians, decide who the winners and losers will be.

Dedicated to Liberty,

Randy Brogdon

State Sen. Randy Brogdon (R-Owasso) is running for Governor. To learn more about him, visit www.RandyBrogdon.com. Three other Republicans are running for governor: Congresswoman Mary Fallin (R-OKC), Yukon businessman Robert Hubbard, and retired Oklahoma City businessman Roger Jackson.

Press Release: Edmonds Leads Republican Pack


Congressional candidate Daniel Edmonds issued the following press release today.

Edmonds Leads Republican Pack in District 2 Congressional Race

MORRIS, OK – Daniel Edmonds, Republican candidate for Oklahoma’s Second Congressional District offers the best chance for Republicans to defeat current Democrat Congressman Dan Boren, according to Public Policy Polling, a national political polling firm. Results of the recently released poll show Daniel Edmonds as the leading Republican candidate and the best candidate to run against incumbent Boren. Edmonds received a significantly higher vote percentage than any of the other Republican candidates. He also kept Boren’s vote percentage substantially under 50% which was the lowest in the poll. Daniel Edmonds is leading the way with the highest name recognition of the Republican candidates as well.

“Our message of liberty, limited government, respect for the Constitution, respect for life, and personal responsibility resonates with individuals who care about our country, our heritage, and our legacy,” Edmonds said. “We are excited about the support our campaign is receiving as I believe I have the education and background to best represent District 2 Oklahomans in Washington.”

“The Republican primary election will be held July 27 and we are working to meet with as many constituents as possible. We are pleased with the results at this point in the campaign, but winning the primary in July and ultimately the general election in the voting booth is our goal. Over the next few months, we will be working hard to tell the Second District who I am and where I stand on the issues pertinent to our district and our country.”

To view poll results, visit http://www.publicpolicypolling.com. To learn more about Daniel Edmonds and his current campaign for Oklahoma’s U.S. Congressional District 2 Seat, visit http://danieledmonds.org.

You can view the PPP poll results in our post here, and you can read my analysis here.

Jett to Announce For Congress



Confirming rumors that have surfaced over the past few weeks, State Rep. Shane Jett (R-Tecumseh) will announce tomorrow that he will seek the Republican nomination for the 5th Congressional District seat.

The office is being vacated by Congresswoman Mary Fallin, who is running for governor.

According to an email sent out today, Jett's announcement will be made in a press conference at noon on Friday, inside the State Capitol.

Jett enters a crowded field for the Republican nomination led by Kevin Calvey, James Lankford, and fellow state representative Mike Thompson, along with two other relatively unknown candidates, Johhny Roy and Rick Flanigan. At this point, no Democrat has filed papers with the FEC. Independent Clark Duffe has announced his intention to run.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Preliminary Pruitt Announcement

The statement from Scott Pruitt, as posted on the 'Draft Pruitt 4 OK Attorney General' blog:
After much prayerful consideration with friends and family, I've decided to launch a campaign for Attorney General. While a formal announcement is still forthcoming, I'm now in the process of filing the necessary paperwork and getting my campaign team in place.

I'd like to thank my good friend, Charlie Polston, for his guidance and encouragement in regards to this decision. He began a Draft Pruitt blog many months ago (www.pruitt4okag.blogspot.com) and I'd ask that you please sign up for updates there until my website is up and running.

I look forward in the coming days and weeks to sharing with you my vision for the office of Attorney General. In the mean time, I leave you with this quote:

"Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn't pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same, or one day we will spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it was once like in the United States where men were free." -- Ronald Reagan

Thank you and God Bless,

Scott Pruitt
Pruitt enters into a competitive Republican primary, with candidates Ryan Leonard and State Sen. Clark Jolley already running. However, I feel that Pruitt comes into the race ahead of Jolley, perhaps on Leonard's heels.

Sunday, March 7, 2010

The Conservative View: 'Sleeping in History Class'

This week's Conservative View, by Adair County Commissioner Russell Turner (R-Stilwell).
The Conservative View
by Russell Turner

Sleeping in History Class

Earlier this week I saw the news report on the court decision that will force the people of Haskell County in Oklahoma to remove a monument from their court house lawn in Stigler. For the people who do not know, the monument had some very objectionable inscriptions on it. On one side the Mayflower Compact was carved and on the other side was the most objectionable inscription, the Ten Commandments. For those that are so offended by the Ten Commandments being in public view on county property, evidently they were asleep when they were in American history class while in school.

All of western law is based upon those simple Ten Commandments. Our country was not founded upon the Koran or any other religion. Unlike other religions, the God that gave us the Ten Commandments allows us the free will to accept or reject the code of conduct in those simple ten rules. Our country is very young compared to other societies; in less than 250 years our nation achieved a level of prosperity that no other nation ever came close too. Other nations have been in existence for many hundreds or thousands of years, fortunately our founders had the wisdom to see the flaws of those countries.

In many countries the people are led to believe that the rights and freedoms that the citizens have come from the government or some religious leader. In our country it is clearly stated that all men are endowed by the CREATOR the right of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. I assume that the people that are so offended by the monument in Stigler would want to remove all aspects of the principles on which our nation was founded. Do they want to destroy the Declaration of Independence, the Bill of Rights, the Constitution? Do they want to stop the practice of having a president being sworn in while his or her hand is on the Bible? Do they want to remove the words “IN GOD WE TRUST” from our currency?

To me it seems so strange that we are willing to spend all kinds of money and time fighting a losing battle on the war on drugs and all of the other crimes that our citizens are committing at an increasing rate. Would the monument in Stigler cure all of those ills? Probably not, but I can say for sure that the monument wouldn’t make the situation any worse.

If you wish to contact Russell Turner, or want to subscribe to his email loop, email him at rdrepublican@windstream.net.

Friday, March 5, 2010

CONFIRMED - Pruitt to Run for Attorney General


BREAKING NEWS: Scott Pruitt will announce his candidacy for Attorney General on Monday, according to several reliable sources close to Pruitt.

More to come soon.

Dustin Roberts Announces for HD 21

To continue with the Bryan County political news, another Republican has announced for State House District 21, being vacated by Rep. John Carey (D-Durant). In July, we reported that Jack Accountius was running - today, Dustin Roberts announced his candidacy for the same seat.
Dustin (Pryor) Roberts, a Republican of Durant, has announced his candidacy for the District 21 State Representative seat currently held by Democrat John Carey.

“I am asking the people of the 21st district to give me the honor of representing them in our Oklahoma State Capital,” said Roberts, in a news release.

“Today marks the beginning of a campaign that will try to push the boundaries of political lines, working hand-in-hand with the great people of District 21 and our capital leaders, building a stronger district and a greater state. It is important to examine each of the candidates that will be representing one of the strongest districts in the great state of Oklahoma.”

Roberts was born in McAlester but raised in Durant by parents Pam Roberts and local businessman Dennis Roberts. He is a Durant High School graduate, where he participated in football and track.

Upon graduation in 2003, Roberts enlisted in the United States Navy to serve the nation and fight the war on terrorism.

In his five-year career in the United States Navy, Roberts was the recipient of two Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medals for his efforts in the Horn of Africa situation and again in Operation Iraqi Freedom.

In 2004, Roberts was awarded as the Blue Jacket of the Year and honored with an invitation to the Presidential Inaugural Ball and Inaugural Address. He was promoted, through the Command Advancement Program, to 3rd Class Petty Officer by the Command Master Chief and Commanding Officer of VFA-143. Later, Roberts was awarded Junior Sailor of the Year for the leadership role he took on his second deployment.

After five years of enlistment in the U.S. Navy, Roberts enrolled in Southeastern Oklahoma State University, where he is pursuing a degree in education.

While enrolled at SE, Roberts is also a partner in his family’s business, All Star Beverages, a drive-thru convenience store.

Roberts and his wife of five years, Lindsay Valles Roberts, of Calera, are members of the Durant Elks Lodge and Calera United Methodist Church.

Together, they volunteer with organizations such as Relay for Life and March of Dimes, and are avid supporters of the local 4-H, FFA and athletics programs.
It's highly unusual for a contested Republican primary in either south-east or east-central Oklahoma, which has been dubbed "Little Dixie" due to the highly Democratic nature of voter registration here. This just speaks to the political climate today, both anti-incumbent and anti-Democrat. This could be a great opportunity for the GOP to gain another state legislative seat in the 2nd Congressional District. Currently, only three Republicans hold seats within the district - State Rep. Tad Jones in Claremore (term-limited), State Rep. Doug Cox in Grove, and State Rep. George Faught in Muskogee.

Boren Hypocrisy on Rangel, Health Care?

This must be the week for news relating to Congressman Dan Boren (D, OK-2)! The Bryan County Republican Party sent this release out earlier this week.
ALERT:

On February 24, [Congressman] Boren sent out a release that he would vote against the health care bill as it "raises taxes on businesses, creates job-killing mandates, grows the size of government, and cuts services to seniors."

And now today (March 3) Boren is sending out statements all over calling on Charlie Rangel to step down from his position as the House Ways and Means Chairman - the head of the powerful committee that sets tax and budget policies, because "I feel that all members of Congress should be held to the highest ethical standards and these preliminary findings are very troubling."

THE FACTS:

Last October 7, after a long investigation already into Rangel's activities which included shaking down an oil company's CEO, and allegations of tax evasion and failure to report income, a resolution came to the floor of Congress to remove Rangel from his place due to the severity of the claims against him. (These are detailed well in the [following] link). However, Dan Boren voted when it counted to KEEP Rangel in place, just sending the resolution back to the ethics committee to continue investigating while not removing Rangel - despite the fact that the committee had been investigating Rangel for well over a year before that and revelations of Rangel hiding at least 500,000 in assets, investment properties not reported, getting sweetheart deals from the IRS in not paying penalties or interests and others.

What did Boren's crucial vote at that time allow Rangel to do? Right after Boren voted to keep Rangel in the Chairmanship, Rangel then facilitated the adjustment of the Health Care bill to allow more of it to fall under the "Nuclear Option" - which will allow the bill to pass Reconciliation in the Senate to cram the vote through with only 50 votes. The news story on this is in the [following] article.

Boren's actual vote - not what he is saying at home - is helping to facilitate the passage of the federal takeover on health care. We need to be informed and very careful about holding him to his actual record in DC - he is getting very savvy at voting no in highly publicized things, but when no one is looking, voting to facilitate the movement forward of legislation that still promotes Obama/Pelosi's plans to grow government.

The Bryan County GOP brought up Boren's October vote up in one of their meetings late last fall. With the results from Public Policy Polling's survey, is Boren going to be vulnerable to inconsistencies like these?

Is Scott Pruitt Running for Office?


Rumors are flying on whether former State Sen. Scott Pruitt (R-Tulsa) is planning on running for office this year.

A 'draft' blog was started last year that called for Pruitt to run for Attorney General, while others wondered if he was consider

On Monday, political activist Matt Pinnell (currently with American Majority, but previously with the Oklahoma Republican Party) tweeted that "another big candidate announcement coming soon in OK". Today, he said "Hey Oklahoma- welcome @ScottPruittOK to Twitter!" Pruitt joined Twitter yesterday.

Why would Pruitt's Twitter profile be ScottPruittOK unless he's running for office? And if he's running, will he be running for Attorney General? I have a feeling that we'll all know soon enough.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Boren on ObamaCare

"They can break my arms, they can do whatever they want to they'll never get my vote ever. I mean they'll have to walk across my dead body if they want my vote on this issue, this is so galvanizing in my district. I think the votes are not there and I don't see where we get them."

Congressman Dan Boren (D, Muskogee), talking to Fox news regarding ObamaCare.

Boren has been an opponent of the President's proposed health care bill, voting against it in November. Even so, the recent PPP poll shows that only 30% of his constituents think that he voted against it, while 32% say he voted for it.

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

PPP 2nd District Poll Analysis


As promised, here's a more detailed look at the results from the Public Policy Polling survey of the 2nd District race.

I'll just start at the beginning, and give my commentary as we go down. You can "follow along" on this pdf if you like - I won't cover everything, and there's some fascinating stuff in these crosstabs.

For starters, 8% of the respondents identify as liberals, 45% as moderates, and 47% as conservatives. 55% call themselves Democrats, 33% Republicans, and 11% Independents.

Obama

President Obama gets a 27% approval rating, and a 65% disapproval. Not terribly surprising, since he lost this district by a somewhat similar margin. However, 20% of 2008 Obama voters disapprove. Liberals approve by a 2-1 margin, but he loses moderates (40-51) and conservatives (10-85). 47% of Democrats disapprove, while 42% approve. Republicans and Independents are overwhelmingly disapproving. Another interesting item: voters are slightly more approving the older they get - his worst approval rating (20%) is with 18-29 year-olds, and his best is with senior citizens (31%).

Boren

Congressman Boren gets a 51/33 approval rating, virtually identical percentages among McCain and Obama voters. He gets slightly higher approval among conservatives (46/38) than he does liberals (43/38), but moderates are higher (57/27). While there was no significant difference among gender in Obama's approval, woman are very approving of Boren (52/26), while men are mixed (49/40). Democrats approve on a 55/27 split, Republicans somewhat approve (47/38), but independents are divided (40/43).

11% of poll respondents consider Boren to be too conservative, 31% say he's too liberal, and 45% says he's just about right.

I fully expected Boren to be over 50% - in fact, I half-thought he'd be at or around 60%. For him to be in the mid- to upper-40s (as you will see below) surprised me. Could he be vulnerable? The odds are still long at defeating him, but it can't be put completely out of the question, especially if the Republican nominee can improve his own name recognition percentages.

Health Care

17% approve of the health care bill passed by the House in November, while 61% disapprove. Liberals approve (54/34), but moderates (26/43) and conservatives (2/82) don't. Democrats (29/42), Republicans (2/86) and Independents (5/78) all disapprove.

32% think that Boren voted for the health care bill, but only 30% actually get it right, and say that he voted against it.

Arnett vs. Boren

Dan Arnett was the poorest performer against Boren, attracting only 22% of the vote against Boren's 49% - a 27 point deficit. These were the lowest and the highest numbers for the respective candidates. Independent Miki Booth received 7%, and 22% were undecided.

Arnett lost McCain voters to Boren 33-39, barely won conservatives (33-32), and got the lowest marks among moderates (10%) and liberals (12%). He also got the lowest marks among Republicans (42%) and Independents (19%).

This poll was obviously not kind to Arnett, who seems to be struggling more so than the other candidates to gain traction.

Houchen vs. Boren

Howard Houchen surprisingly had the second-worst performance, earning 26% to Boren's 48%, a 22 point deficit. Booth again received 7% of the vote.

Houchen edged out Boren in McCain voters 39-36. He gets the highest mark (ties the highest spread) in conservatives, beating Boren 43-29. He has the second-best performance among Republicans (51%), and the best showing among Independents, beating Boren 27-25.

This wasn't the best news for Houchen, as he has widely been considered the frontrunner (he's placed first in both of our candidates rankings to date). It's also by no means crushing information, but it's not great, either. I was, frankly, surprised at his showing.

Thompson vs. Boren

Charles Thompson had the second-best showing in this poll, getting 25% of the vote to Boren's 45% - a 20 point deficit. Booth received 8% this time.

Thompson won McCain voters 38-33. He came in second of the GOP candidates among liberals (20%) and third among conservatives, beating Boren 39-28. He was tied for first among Democrats (12%), third among Republicans (48%), and second in Independents (25%) - tied with Boren.

This has to be encouraging news for Thompson, the latest entry into this race. His numbers surprised me, as I fully expected him to be either third or fourth.

Edmonds vs. Boren

Daniel Edmonds comes out as the big winner in this poll, garnering 28% of the vote compared to Boren's 44% - a 16 point deficit. This is by far the best Republican performance, being the highest and the lowest percentages for the respective candidates. Booth again received 8%.

Edmonds received the highest percentage of McCain voters, beating Boren 42-33. He got the most of the GOP candidates among liberals (23%) and moderates (15%), and came in a close second among conservatives, beating Boren 42%-28% (tied for the highest spread). He tied for most Democrat supporters (12%), was the clear leader among Republicans (56%), and came in third in Independents (23%). He also did best among female voters (26%), and was in a three-way tie on male voters (31%).

This poll placed Edmonds as the clear frontrunner in the GOP primary - great news for his campaign. As well as he did, it would seem logical that he would have the best shot at swaying those undecideds away from Boren, and to him. Now, will he be able to transform this into greater fundraising figures?

Miki Booth

Miki Booth is running as an Independent, although there are rumors that she's switching to run as a Republican now. She's probably most well known for her outspokenness on the Obama birth certificate controversy - arguably her most talked about issue. Still, even as a 'birther' candidate, there were very interesting tidbits in this poll.

Booth received 7% or 8% in every single matchup, drawing equal percentages from McCain voters and Obama voters. This tells me that those are the people that refuse to vote for either a Republican or a Democrat candidate.

What's intriguing is that she draws 5%-8% of conservatives and moderates, while getting 14% of liberals in the Boren/Arnett matchup, 20% in the Boren/Edmonds grouping, 23% against Boren and Thompson, and 24% in the Boren/Houchen pairing. This is especially interesting given her 'birther' stand - another indication that her voters don't know (or care) what she stands for, only that she's not a Republican or a Democrat.

She draws 5% of Democrats in all the matchups, 8%-12% of Republicans, 10%-19% of Independents. She also does 3-6 points better among minorities than she does among whites, and does better among 18-29 year-olds and seniors citizens.

Conclusion

The winners in this poll are Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson. The results were very encouraging for them.

The losers are Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Dan Boren. For Arnett, this has to be either a shape-up signal or a get-out-of-the-race call. For Houchen, it's a little embarrassing, given his perceived front-runner status. Boren should be disappointed at his somewhat unimpressive lead, as someone of his establishment should have performed better. This more than likely will shape up to be his toughest political climate ever.

Given that this poll has shown some possible vulnerability for Boren, the Republican candidates need to seriously consider whether or not they belong in the race. With four (and possibly more) candidates running, the likelihood of the race going to a runoff is fairly high. A runoff would essentially ruin a Republican candidate's chances, as valuable and hard-to-come-by resources would be wasted.

We remain committed to reporting the latest developments in this race. Keep an eye, and a mouse-click, on the Muskogee Politico blog!

PPP Poll: Edmonds Best Against Boren



Partly due to our efforts here at the Muskogee Politico blog, Public Policy Polling polled the 2nd District Congressional race this past weekend. The results were somewhat surprising.

PPP 2010 2nd District Congressional Poll (link)
(Poll details and crosstabs - pdf)
  • Dan Boren (D) - 49%
  • Dan Arnett (R) - 22%
  • Miki Booth (I) - 7%
  • Undecided - 22%
Boren leads Arnett by 27%.
  • Dan Boren (D) - 44%
  • Daniel Edmonds (R) - 28%
  • Miki Booth (I) - 8%
  • Undecided - 20%
Boren leads Edmonds by 16%.
  • Dan Boren (D) - 48%
  • Howard Houchen (R) - 26%
  • Miki Booth (I) - 7%
  • Undecided - 19%
Boren leads Houchen by 22%.
  • Dan Boren (D) - 45%
  • Charles Thompson (R) - 25%
  • Miki Booth (I) - 8%
  • Undecided - 21%
Boren leads Thompson by 20%.

Poll of 664 voters, February 26-28, with a MoE of 3.8%

Congressman Dan Boren holds substantial leads over potential Republican and Independent challengers, but smaller than one might expect, given his previous electoral performances (66%, 73%, and 70%, respectively). I was surprised that he was under 50%, myself.

Daniel Edmonds held him to 44%, Boren's worst performance, and got 28% in the poll, the highest performance. The ther candidates (Dan Arnett, Howard Houchen, and Charles Thompson) were well outside the margin of error from Edmonds' showing against Boren.

Independent 'birther' candidate Miki Booth received 7-8% in each poll.

More analysis to come later [Update: click here for analysis]. For now, here are the results.

Monday, March 1, 2010

Rasmussen Poll: Coburn Over Henry

Rasmussen polled a hypothetical matchup in the U.S. Senate race here in Oklahoma, pitting Sen. Tom Coburn (R) against term-limited Governor Brad Henry (D).
Rasmussen Reports 2010 Oklahoma Senate General Election Poll (link)

Tom Coburn (R) - 52%
Brad Henry (D) - 40%
Some other candidate - 2%
Not sure - 5%

Favorable/Unfavorable

Tom Coburn - 63%/31% (+32%)
Brad Henry - 63%/33% (+30%)

Job Approval (approve/disapprove)

Gov. Brad Henry - 64%/34% (+30%)
Pres. Barack Obama - 38%/62% (-24%)

Poll of 500 Likely Voters, February 24, 2010, with a MoE 4.5%

Henry has ruled out a run for Senate, leaving Oklahoma Democrats without any likely candidate. As of right now, there are no announced opponents for Coburn.

For Brad Henry, the state's most visible and popular Democrat, to fall this short against Coburn speaks to the depths to which the Oklahoma Democrat Party has fallen.

Not only did they lose the state house in 2004 (for the only second time since statehood), and the state senate in 2008 (for the first time in history), but they have fallen below 50% in voter registration for the first time ever. Republicans now make up just over 40% of registered voters, an all-time high. Just 40 years ago, voter registration was slightly over 70% Democrat and around 25% Republican.

Just more evidence that the conservative movement is turning Oklahoma the 'reddest of the red', thanks in part to the work of people like President Ronald Reagan, President Barack Obama, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senator Harry Reid, all for convincing Democrats that they were actually Republican, and to
OKGOP Chairman Gary Jones, for his adept leadership of the Republican Party in Oklahoma.