Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Election 2010: My Predictions

Election 2010 has finally arrived. All of the door-knocking, pie suppers, campaign signs, robocalls and negative ads are ending in just a few short hours.

The election polls will be shortly replaced with The Actual Election Polls. All of the guessing and predicting and assumptions will be replaced with cold hard facts about who won and who lost. Well, barring another Florida '00/Minnesota '08 recount ordeal.

So, since everyone is issuing their pre-election predictions, I finally have gotten around to posting my own thoughts.

U.S. Senate: Tom Coburn wins with his largest margin ever - and finally wins his home Muskogee County. Coburn takes 70%-75%.
U.S. House, District 1: John Sullivan, facing only an Independent, coasts to re-election, receiving over 80%.
U.S. House, District 2: Dan Boren remains the lone Oklahoma Democrat in Congress, but Charles Thompson rides enough of the anti-Democrat sentiment to keep Boren just under sixty percent. Boren 59%, Thompson 41%.
U.S. House, District 3: Frank Lucas easily wins, gets around 75%.
U.S. House, District 5: James Lankford becomes Oklahoma's newest Congressman. Lankford with just over 60%.
Governor: Mary Fallin wins, albeit with a lower percentage than the polls had shown. Fallin 56%, Askins 44%.
Lieutenant Governor: Todd Lamb beats Kenneth Corn, 58%-39%-3%.
State Auditor: Gary Jones ekes out a win (finally!) - riding the Republican tidal wave to success. Jones with 54%.
Attorney General: Scott Pruitt wins, but with a lower percentage than he would have had if the election were held in September. Pruitt 59%, Priest 41%.
State Superintendent: Janet Barresi holds on to defeat Susan Paddack. 56%-40%-4%.
State Treasurer: Ken Miller wins easily, 65%-35%.
Labor Commissioner: Mark Costello beats incumbent Lloyd Fields, 61%-39%.
Insurance Commissioner: Kim Holland holds on in the closest of the races. Holland 51%, Doak 49%. Holland staves off a GOP sweep of statewide offices.
State House: GOP picks up seven seats (Bennett in HD2, Burmeier in HD18, Roberts in HD21, Smith in HD34, Vaughan in HD37, Stiles in HD45, McKay in HD78). State House now becomes 69-32.
State Senate: GOP gains at least four seats (Brecheen in SD6, Fields in SD10, Simpson in SD14, David in SD18) to make the State Senate 30-18. Possible pickups, or at least close races, in SD8, SD16, and SD44.

SQ744: Fails; 38-62.
SQ746: Passes; 77-23.
SQ747: Passes; 78-22.
SQ748: Passes; 61-39.
SQ750: Passes; 55-45.
SQ751: Passes; 84-16.
SQ752: Passes; 60-40.
SQ754: Fails; 48-52.
SQ755: Passes; 67-33.
SQ756: Passes; 71-29.
SQ757: Passes; 56-44.

And for pure "step-out-on-a-limb"-ness, the anti-politician/incumbent tide sweeps at least one statewide judge out of office. Who knows -- it could happen!

A big story in Oklahoma is the emergence of the GOP in eastern Oklahoma (or rather, as contained in the 2nd Congressional District), as Republicans win three House seats (HD2, HD18 and HD21) and two Senate seats (SD6 and SD18).

U.S. Senate: GOP gains 10 seats (AR, CO, IL, IN, ND, NV, PA, WA, WI, WV), but only after a few weeks of recounts in races like Washington, West Virginia and Nevada. Christine O'Donnell cuts it close, but not close enough. Barbara Boxer manages another win. Linda McMahon is a disappointment for the GOP in Connecticut. GOP leads 51 to 47+2.

U.S. House: GOP takes the House, getting between 55 and 65 new seats.

Governorships: GOP gains 10 governorships (gaining IA, KS, MA, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, WY and losing HI, MN). Lincoln Chafee (I-RI) wins, so the total is 33 Republicans to 16 Democrats to 1 Independent.


These are my pre-election (and post-midnight!) thoughts; post yours in the comments.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Here in State Senate District 4 it is also a close race.

Anonymous said...

One of the big stories people are overlooking is the huge pickup in the governorships. This will be big for redistricting and the 2012 elections.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for these thoughts, Jamison. And thank you for your work all year on keeping readers informed.

You have been unbelievably helpful to me, and others I am sure.

Bobbie McAuliffe
Poteau