Monday, February 8, 2010

Tulsa GOP Straw Poll: Brogdon Smashes Fallin


The Tulsa County Republican Party held a well-attended rally on Saturday, February 6th. At the rally, said to be attended by between 400 and 600 people, a straw poll was taken of several different races that will be on the ballot in Tulsa County. Here are the results, taken from an email from the Tulsa County GOP (with some minor formatting changes in the results).
Straw Poll Results Are In

The rally that was held Saturday was a huge success. The Lemley Center was packed and almost every Republican candidate running in the federal and state wide election this year was present along with many of the county officials up for re-election.

Tulsa Mayor Dewey Bartlett welcomed everyone and gave a short report on the progress of his administrations actions since being elected.

Vice Chairman J.B. Alexander gave a status report on the Tulsa County Republican Party during which he challenged everyone present to get actively involved with the county party.

Vice Chairman Alexander stated "Our forefathers gave of their time, talents and treasures to create this nation and we need to do the same to ensure our Freedoms and Liberty's are protected in order to save this Republic".

Chairman Sally Bell reorganized our veterans by arranging for the VFW 5th District Honor Guard to present the colors and to present the flags of all five branches of the armed forces. Seventeen year old Elissa Stiles of Owasso gave a wonderful presentation titled "Taught by Example" which honored our veterans.

Elissa took second place with this presentation in last years statewide VFW "Voice of Democracy" competition. Her presentation this year won her first place in the state and she will be traveling to WashingtonDC this spring to compete nationally. Congratulations Elissa!!

Now here is the information many people are waiting for. A straw poll results.

The following question was asked concerning the below listed races:

"If the election were held today, who would you vote for...."

U.S. Congress, District 1
John Sullivan (i) - 52.9%
Nathan Dahm - 26.6%
Fran Moghaddam - 1.5%
Undecided - 13.3%
Not My District - 5.7%

Governor
Randy Brogdon - 68.4%
Mary Fallin - 23.6%
Robert Hubbard - 0.8%
Undecided - 7.2%

Lieutenant Governor
John Wright - 35.7%
Todd Lamb - 22.4%
Undecided - 41.8%

Attorney General
Ryan Leonard - 25.9%
Clark Jolley - 7.6%
Undecided - 66.5%

State Treasurer
Owen Laughlin - 18.3%
Ken Miller - 15.6%
Undecided - 66.2%

Superintendent of Public Instruction
Janet Barresi - 36.9%
Shawn Hime - 6.1%
Undecided - 57.0%

Labor Commissioner
Tad Jones - 18.6%
Jason Reese - 11.4%
Mark Costello - 9.5%
Mark Mullin - 0.4%
Undecided - 60.1%

State Senate, District 34
Tim Coager - 16.0%
Rick Brinkley - 13.3%
Undecided - 17.1%
Not My District - 53.6%

State House, District 68
Howard Pidcock - 11.4%
Glen Mulready - 8.7%
Undecided - 20.5%
Not My District - 59.3%

State House, District 75
Dan Kirby (i) - 9.1%
Dennis Adkins - 3.0%
Undecided - 20.9%
Not My District - 66.9%

Tulsa Co. Commissioner, District 3
Fred Perry (i) - 17.9%
Michael Masters - 10.6%
Undecided - 24.3%
Not My District - 47.1%

A full copy of the survey and straw poll will be posted on the Tulsa County Republican Party web site later this week.

Race-by-race analysis:

1st Congressional District
This is by no means bad news for John Sullivan. In fact, I think it's somewhat disappointing for Nathan Dahm. This would have been the easiest time for Dahm to weight the vote towards him, but he failed to really challenge Sullivan. Dahm's support is going to be higher among the grassroots GOP faithful than it is among the average voters, since the activists will be more upset with Sullivan.

Governor
I was particularly pleased to see State Sen. Randy Brogdon with such a large lead. Congresswoman Mary Fallin again failed to attend, a trait that is occurring far too often to be mere coincidence. Fallin is angering many in the GOP grassroots by ignoring Republican meetings across Oklahoma, and particular on this side of the state. If she isn't careful, there may not be many in the grassroots of the party left who haven't be wooed by Brogdon.

Lieutenant Governor
The underdog in this race, outgoing State Rep. John Wright, had a respectable lead (even if Tulsa County is practically his home turf). Wright has a tough hill to climb in beating State Sen. Todd Lamb, however.

Attorney General
Ryan Leonard held a substantial lead over State Sen. Clark Jolley, who I really think should not run for this seat. Leonard would make a great Attorney General, and I'm glad he's holding a big lead in this race.

State Treasurer
I was very glad to see that former State Sen. Owen Laughlin edged out State Rep. Ken Miller in this poll. Laughlin, being from up near the Panhandle, will have a much harder time getting his name out than the establishment pick, Miller (the current Appropriations chairman in the State House), but it is refreshing to see him leading.

State Superintendent
Janet Barresi holds a huge lead over newly-arrived Shawn Hime. This race may get dirtier than the others, as rumors are already flying over Hime's entrance (such as 'Hime is Democrat Sandy Garrett's hand-picked successor'). Where these rumors originated may never be known, but Hime may face some difficulty nevertheless once he starts to get on the campaign trail.

Labor Commissioner
I was disappointed to see how little support Jaso
n Reese received in Tulsa County. Reese is a stellar candidate, who fits the office perfectly. His main opponent, establishment pick and outgoing State Rep. Tad Jones, has very few (if any) qualifications for the job that I am aware of, but as the Majority Floor Leader in the State House will be able to raise gobs of money. The wildcard is Mark Costello, who loaned his campaign $104,000 on December 29th.

Senate District 34 will be an interesting race to watch. With Randy Brogdon running for Governor, who will take his place? Coager seems to have a slight lead right now. I know nothing of House District 68, other than the race is to replace term-limited House Speaker Chris Benge. House District 75 is currently held by Dan Kirby. Dennis Adkins opted not to seek reelection in 2008, but still has a campaign account open with $130,000 left. Tulsa County Commission District 3 may be an indication of disgruntlement over Fred Perry's support of the failed River tax.

As a straw poll, these figures have to be taken with a grain of salt (take Ron Paul's presidential campaign, for example; he won many straw polls, but ended up with 5% of the vote), but they are a good indication of grassroots support - very important for campaigns. A loss is by no means shattering, but a win is very helpfu
l, especially for an underdog going up against a much more well-known opponent.

3 comments:

Jason Carini said...

Good post. Thx for the insight into the different races.

Blogmaster said...

must be a straw man poll...Fallin is a high healed shoe in...

Virginia said...

Thw straw poll results mean absolutely nothing. Individuals from the campaigns could vote and vote and vote and vote. No limit to how many votes you could cast.